2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf. Biden enters the race Sanders is History
Biden is more popular than Sanders. Plus the media will not attack Biden at all. Sanders had benefited from the fact that the MSM has always been Anti-Clinton. Biden will be favorite if he enters the race. He doesn't have an email problem.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)... virtually every political prediction ever made is wrong. I'm sure this one will not be the exception.
unblock
(56,084 posts)Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)©2266 by James T. Kirk. All rights reserved.
Suich
(10,642 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)I'd say Clinton is the one who will be in trouble, mostly because the money spigot will go to Joe in an 'anyone but sanders' effort. Sanders is funded by the people so he is immune to the control of the spigot.
Ashdric
(29 posts)Plus, polls don't say otherwise. Explain how they do.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)if the spigot owners decide Clinton is no longer viable.
Biden's non-announcement over the last few weeks gave him a bump in the polls but that bump appeared to come from Clinton's supporters not Sanders.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)virtually none of Bernie's supporters would go to Biden(certainly no female Bernie supporters would back Biden, since they all remember how he hung Anita Hill out to dry during the Thomas confirmation hearings...something Biden has never exactly apologized for).
And if Bernie were knocked out by a Biden entry, it's hard to imagine Biden's poll numbers holding up, since most of Biden's potential support comes from conservative establishment Dems who would only back Joe to stop Bernie(and would then go back to HRC once Bernie had been seen off).
Prairiegale
(13 posts)I would. Why? Well, there is just too much about Clinton I do not like. I am old an remember all the scandals, proved or not. My old way of thinking is that if you are in so many scandals, and are always being investigated about one thing or another.....where there is smoke there is fire. Don't like her, don't trust her. Actually, she makes my skin crawl as much as the GOP. Biden is just another inside Dem, but that is still better than Hillary for me. Just my opinion.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)tblue37
(68,349 posts)cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
emsimon33
(3,128 posts)cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
tblue37
(68,349 posts)bank could cause him problems with the 99% voters:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/31/us/politics/banking-ties-could-hurt-joe-biden-in-race-with-populist-overtone.html?_r=0
(SNIP)
Not mentioned was Mr. Bidens own history with the financial services industry, an economic power in his home state of Delaware, or the critics who saw him as too close to credit-card companies in more than three decades in the Senate.
But if Mr. Biden decides to run for the Democratic presidential nomination, his Senate reputation as a friend to financial institutions could be a significant obstacle, especially if he wants to make inroads with the partys liberal base, which has become increasingly skeptical and often passionately hostile to anything connected to Wall Street.
(SNIP)
In the late 1990s, amid an increase in bankruptcy filings, the financial services industry began pushing for rules that would make it more difficult for consumers to seek bankruptcy protection. Among those courted by the industry was Mr. Biden, who represented the home state of a number of vested companies, including, at the time, the credit-card issuer MBNA Corporation. (Bank of America bought MBNA in 2006.) MBNA executives and employees contributed roughly $200,000 to Mr. Bidens campaigns from 1989 to 2010, making the company his largest corporate donor during that time, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.
(SNIP)
At one point during the debate, Ms. Warren, then a Harvard professor, singled out Mr. Biden for what she saw as his anti-consumer role.
(SNIP)
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)The civil war in the Third Way will leave Bernie unscathed. I'm loving it.
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)I remember in past campaigns Biden was considered an unstable candidate because he tends to make gaffes when unscripted.
I think Biden's candidacy is mostly wishful thinking by the Democratic right wing.
trof
(54,274 posts)Delusional
SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)And hasn't even started campaigning.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)She'll drop from 2nd to 3rd and Bernie will basically run away with the whole thing. It'll be a landslide. She can maybe recover from getting kicked down to 2nd place, but once she slides again that party is over. Good observation.
SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)That say otherwise.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)And if you think Biden is better than Bernie, it just means you don't want Democrats to have a progressive nominee..
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)of fluff articles is unbelievable.
It's up to Biden whether or not he wants to enter the race.
ZM90
(706 posts)I will donate $10.00 to DU if Biden gets in and Bernie Sanders does not become the Democratic nominee but only under the condition that you must donate $10.00 to DU if Biden does get in and Sanders ends up the nominee. Deal?
arcane1
(38,613 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)His history as author of the drug war, supporter of the bankruptcy bill, etc.
I think your analysis is seriously off kilter.
Plus I dont think he's getting in, but if he did it would siphon support away from Hillary- who occupies a similar establishment valence- not Sanders.
RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)Plus, he has a personality to boot.
If Biden runs, it will be devastating to Clinton.
No Bernie supporters who have carefully compared the voting records of the two men should even consider voting for Biden in the primaries. Unless of course they've suddenly decided that the disastrous Iraq invasion and the Constitution-shredding PATRIOT {sic} ACT are good things. Don't let that twinkle in his eye mislead you. The Senator from MasterCard is basically just Hillary in a suit and tie.
And no, Bernie won't be history. He'll make history.
cprise
(8,445 posts)Desperate, I think. But as you point out, there's really no other reason to field Biden other than "he's got personality".
Its too bad that "Biden" looks nothing like "Sanders" on a printed ballot.
olddots
(10,237 posts)LWolf
(46,179 posts)Biden will split Clinton's support; he's more "popular" with her supporters, and doesn't offer what Sanders does to those who are supporting him.
It's interesting that you chose to use the word "popular." My grandson is running for class president. We spent some time today talking about his campaign, and ended with, "It's good to learn how to run a campaign. In the long run, though, too often in high school it's more a popularity contest than an election based on record or issues."
It's sad when adult campaigns that impact people's lives in a significant way are still, for some, about "popularity."
Oldenuff
(582 posts)Democrats who really want to affect change,aren't going to be persuaded to vote Biden.In fact,I will be even more determined than before to vote for the ONLY candidate that really offers anything substantive.
I'd vote Biden over Clinton every day of the week if Sanders wasn't in the race.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)But the evidence seems to be Biden hurts Clinton a bit more.
Sanders loses a bit of anti-Clinton support. The left is pretty strongly linked to Sanders and Biden doesn't represent an alternative that's on the progressive pushing left.
ms liberty
(11,076 posts)wundermaus
(1,673 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Unless she crashes he probably won't even enter.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)of the issues. Is he going to be much different than Hillary on the issues? Being like is the new meme. But Bernie's support comes from his stance on the issues. We see him as authentic, as telling the truth and as consistently on the side of the little guy.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)cprise
(8,445 posts)once he becomes a real candidate.
Of course, if the party brass (incl. Biden) times it so he misses most of the debates -- and IF Biden wins the nomination -- then he'll mainly have to debate a Republican and it will be on terms and assumptions that DC is much more comfortable with.
The establishment is trying to salvage their narratives. They know that in many cases its what stands between them and prison and penury.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)expose their ideas for the future the better. So you are right. Debating the Rs would allow them to debate the issue they want to talk about.
Bernie talks about them all. We want to change the direction we have been going.
oasis
(53,436 posts)Pope Sweet Jesus
(62 posts)pandr32
(13,969 posts)Sounds like you have been happily gobbling up the well-funded propaganda from the conservatives. What are you doing here?
Pope Sweet Jesus
(62 posts)highprincipleswork
(3,111 posts)Just as likely as what you propose.
All folks who adore Hillary better press her to call for more debates. If she cannot win this thing fair and square she may not win very much at all.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)I welcome Biden to the race, because Biden sucks down Hillary voters. Biden is nothing like Sanders, and almost entirely like Hillary. So he splits the Hillary vote and makes it that much easier for Bernie to win. If Biden enters the race, it's Hillary whose dreams go down in flames.
MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)If Biden enters the race, he will draw votes from Hillary. They are both part of the Washington establishment and voters want a break from the status quo. Biden's entrance into the race would hurt Hillary and help Bernie.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)The Not as Bad moderates will split their votes giving the progressives a better chance to win.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)there have been several poll studies that show bidens presence in the race hurts hillary way more than any other candidate. they are easy to find on google if you are interested. since you did not provide a link i do not feel compelled to provide a rebuttal link but they're there.
biden might have higher name rec than sanders. very different than being more "popular". and name rec will be overcome.
not looking like biden getting in, but if he does it will be a third way slugfest between him and hillary, with bernie and om rising above the bullshit and presenting the sane alternative.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)tularetom
(23,664 posts)Plus bankruptcy "reform", the Patriot act, and lots more.
Biden has almost as much baggage as Hillary Clinton but a lot less of the stench. He won't get many Sanders voters to switch.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Biden will cut into Clinton's support and money, not Bernie's.
Bernie is not "unpopular;" he is unknown. The more he gets known, the more support he draws.
Biden has numerous major strikes against him on issues that are important today, that will haunt his candidacy and for which there is no good answer. The media loves to portray Biden as "gaffe-prone, Crazy Uncle Joe." His only protection will be as the 1%'s alternative to Hillary.
Response to Ashdric (Original post)
Post removed
artislife
(9,497 posts)This made me choke on my mint ice cream!
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)talking about ice cream at this time of night.....now I'm going to have to go get some.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Oh my gosh, made me laugh harder! Can't believe the initial post got a hide.
Who says there are no more H supporters on this board!?!
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)but offensive twenty-four letter words are almost always hidden.
I am glad to hear that the scolding tone of my previous title line was sufficiently excessive....
Nothingcleverjustray
(37 posts)For a really rich guy thats really not into you or your problems. Or the electorates for that matter.
DemocratSinceBirth
(101,708 posts)Uncle Joe's really cool, For a really rich guy thats really not into you or your problems. Or the electorates for that matter.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/06/joe-biden-says-he-is-the-poorest-man-in-congress/
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)of the two. It was a running joke. Biden has great credibility was the white working class.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)She'll be rich, sexy, and drive a Mercedes.
GoneOffShore
(18,009 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Last edited Sat Sep 19, 2015, 10:53 PM - Edit history (1)
If Biden enters the race, of course he'll pull more support from Clinton than from Sanders, but not nearly enough to give Sanders the nomination. And Sanders will receive even less media coverage, as all the talk will be about Clinton vs. Biden. Meanwhile, Clinton (still a heavy favorite to be the nominee) is made to look weak (this is what you'll hear: "See, even Democrats don't think she can win the general election."
. This is why the Clintons have reportedly (and understandably) been quite agitated by all the Biden talk.
And if Biden were to manage to get the nomination, then we have a candidate who is even more objectionable than Clinton from a leftist/progressive standpoint.
No, as with all the free advertising the unanswered GOP debates are garnering for the Republican Party message, a Biden run would only benefit the Republican Party. A party whose pool of candidates are arguably even worse than they were in 2012 when Noam Chomsky called them "off the international spectrum of sane behavior." With a very favorable electoral college map, if the Democratic Party nominee doesn't win (easily) in 2016, the Democratic Party should just close up shop. No, not really. But it will have some major soul-searching to do. Will Rogers was right to say he didn't belong to an organized (or highly competent) political party--he was a Democrat.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)onecaliberal
(36,594 posts)Recent polling confirms that.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)But it wouldn't be substantial enough to erase the lead Clinton has in the vast majority of states. If Clinton isn't the nominee, Biden will be the nominee. It won't be Sanders.
onecaliberal
(36,594 posts)Boomer
(4,393 posts)There is a flaw to your logic. Clinton holds the lead in states now, but only because she's a known quantity and Sanders is not. She is the default choice for Democrats who know nothing about Bernie Sanders.
As Sanders brings his campaign to each new state, his numbers go up. Once people hear his message, he gains converts very quickly, and he draws them from Democrats, Independents and even Republicans.
If anyone caught the Rachel Maddow show this past week, the polling from Vermont shows that Sanders is tied for first place at 12% with both Trump and Ben Carson among REPUBLICANS. Vermonters already feel the Bern. The rest of the country isn't that far behind.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Vermont is not a good barometer. Look, I'm a leftist and like a lot of what Sanders stands for, but his campaign is (in his own words) an effort to launch a grassroots political movement. He is not, however, going to be nominated. That was never a realistic goal.
As I wrote in my own reply to the OP, Biden running would hurt Clinton and Sanders and the Democratic Party as a whole.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)if Biden takes support from Clinton (say Biden takes 15% from Clinton and 0% from Sanders so its Clinton - 32%; Sanders - 27%; Biden - 30%), that does not help get Sanders to 51% of the delegates.
For Sanders to win, it is not enough that Clinton lose support; Clinton has to lose support to Sanders. Shifting votes from Clinton to Biden (or Clinton to O'Malley) does not give the nomination to Sanders. Sanders has to be the candidate who is picking up the support that Clinton is losing for him to get the nomination. Biden makes that avenue either 10 times harder or impossible.
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)In spite of the predictions of anyone; I will continue to support Bernie as the best nominee for the Democratic party's candidate.
SusanCalvin
(6,592 posts)Que sera, sera.
Don't know why you or I even bother to reply to this stuff, as it can't possibly make any difference.
Well, I do know about me, come to think of it - I'm bored and sleepy.
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)Thats my story
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)split the rest of the party.
Biden draws some support from Clinton, that's true, but unless Sanders is the one who draws that support from Clinton, Sanders has no likely pathway to 51% of the delegates.
We Sanders supporters must realize that the rationale behind Biden's hypothetical candidacy is to "rescue" the party from Sanders.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)And just like the rationale behind an aggressive war in Iraq, it just isn't going to work.
If there are 3 or more people with candidates in the race, it very well may be that NO one gets 51%. In which case it's brokered convention time, with whoever has the MOST delegates sitting in good position.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)VP and the candidate who has the most party establishment endorsements to pick the most progressive candidate in a brokered convention.
A Biden candidacy hurts Clinton but it hurts Sanders' chances more.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)I'm voting for Bernie
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)is an idea born of the desire to stop Sanders.
SusanCalvin
(6,592 posts)Bless his heart, I think the only reason he isn't debunking the rumors is party loyalty. (To the wing of the party that considers, Hillary the annointed candidate.)
DhhD
(4,695 posts)is already talking about the mistakes of Obama-Biden. I do not see Biden in a third term.
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)He is owned by his corporate masters and does their bidding.
pandr32
(13,969 posts)for us to read. Why?
Pope Sweet Jesus
(62 posts)Bankruptcy Act was a huge favorite of the 1%
pandr32
(13,969 posts)but that he had his reasons. Yes his son worked for a lender, but Jo Biden went out on a limb for whatever reasons he had. He is not known as a sell-out. Your statement is a gross generalization that can cut both ways, I am sure.
Pope Sweet Jesus
(62 posts)How about the completely inexcusable RAVE Act or his act with Anita Hill, enabling Uncle Tom Thomas to have a seat next to Fat Tony and do absolutely nothing useful.
pandr32
(13,969 posts)You know he isn't a wealthy man, but one who may have different concerns as a senator than you do as whoever. You slam him for his handling of the Clarence Thomas/ Anita Hill incident and nomination but then fail to mention that he opposed Reagan's nomination of ideologue Bork.
You may not like him, but you have not proven he is owned by the 1%.
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)Biden is repsonsible for the 2005 Bankruptcy "Reform" Act, pretty much written by the Banksters.
The evidence is plain for those who wish to see.
bvf
(6,604 posts)99Forever
(14,524 posts)Roll another one.
madokie
(51,076 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)beggars would ride.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)I just always thought it foolish to assume that beggars would choose to ride horses instead of eating.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)I never thought of that.
What an interesting perspective, my friend
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)and one "outsider" as the 3 leaders.
The entire dynamic of the race would change. I think making assumptions now about what would happen is foolish.
I don't really see how a sitting VP could fail to win the nomination if he decides he wants it. Especially one in an administration that has been as effective as this one, but only time will tell.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)the vote and the outsider would have the advantage.
I really do think that the sitting VP wins if he enters the race. That is just the way these things play out.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)enters the convention with 40% of the delegates and Clinton and Biden have 30% each, Sanders does not get the nomination. The people who decide brokered conventions do not choose a progressive candidate over the former Secretary of State who has almost unprecedented party establishment support and does not choose the most liberal candidate over the sitting VP.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)they seriously risk having voters revolt and losing the general. Because the supporters of the person with the most delegates are not simply going to say 'great, I'll vote for the people who stole the nomination!'
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)asks his delegates to support Clinton, then it is Sanders 40% and Clinton 60%. Same result if you flip Clinton and Biden in the hypothetical. At the end of the day, Clinton and Biden and ideologically close (Clinton is a hair better on reproductive liberty, putting families ahead of the predatory credit industry, etc., but Biden and Clinton come from the same wing of the party), and each would endorse the other before they would endorse Sanders.
SusanCalvin
(6,592 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)The idea that the super delegates will overrule the will of the voters is foolish to me. Most of them depend on the voters for their jobs.
I still have faith that the system is not so corrupt that the politicians making back room deals will not over rule the voters.
Of course, I could be wrong. But any nominee who "wins" that way will be seen as illegitimate and have a real problem in the general.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)candidate, there will be endorsements and coalitions and this brokered nomination will not favor the ideological outlier.
We need for Sanders to enter the convention with 51% of the delegates. That is our only path to victory. A Biden candidacy is calculated to "save" the party from a Sanders nomination in the fairly unlikely event that Clinton's campaign collapses.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)but this is all hypothetical and not worth arguing about
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Star Pizza, another kid wants to go to Napoli Pizza, and a third kid wants to go to Grimaldi Pizza, I could argue that a plurality of us want to go to that Indian restaurant, but -- in your heart -- you know that is not true.
Biden and Clinton are two very similar pizza places serving the same mediocre stuff. With that said, more people currently like pizza than Indian food, which is a shame because I love Indian food.
If I am going to talk the family into going to that Indian restaurant, I need to persuade one of the kids that we have had pizza twice this week already and we're sick of pizza and we should try the Indian restaurant for a change because I know they will like it.
As Sanders supporters, it is not enough for us to win that Clinton loses support. That lost support has to come to Sanders to make a difference. If Clinton loses support, but that support goes from Clinton to Biden, we are a lost cause and it is four more year of fucking pizza.
Now let's get out there and remind those kids what a good malai kofta tastes like.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)the party and he probably weakens Clinton sufficiently to jeopardize her chances in the general election.
In either event, he doesn't win.
Biden takes no meaningful amount of support from Sanders out of the progressive wing of the party (but he does split the not-Clinton vote which needs to unify behind one candidate if there is any hope of someone other than Clinton from getting the nomination).
Biden is too late to the game to steal enough of Clinton's support to beat Clinton among the centrist/establishment Democrats. He is wanting to keep his name out there in case something horrible happens (something so bad that Clinton withdraws from the race), but nothing horrible is going to happen.
Biden is many things:
* a loyal VP,
* a Senator who has tried to balance his Delaware corporate sponsors' desires with people's needs,
* a good father,
* a Senator who had good intentions when passing harsh criminal penalties for drug possession,
* a good husband, and
* a Senator who has tried to balance his opposition to abortion with a regard for women's rights.
There is one thing Biden is not -- he's not a Nader.
Biden is not going to run.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)most of the vote will come from Hillary and a few from Bernie.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Biden would mean even less media coverage for Sanders, as all the talk would be Clinton vs. Biden. Sanders is so far behind in most states that Clinton would still be a heavy favorite. Biden would be more likely to win the nomination than Sanders.
Ashdric
(29 posts)Or is your source yourself?
BuelahWitch
(9,083 posts)No fucking way!
Prairiegale
(13 posts)since Bernie has started campaigning and he does not have the name recognition. I live in a very red state and occasionally they might mention him on the 3 MSM stations. We do not have any campaign ads on TV and people out here do not know who the hell he is.
Sanders has not gotten any MSM until recently, but a few articles here and there and usually most of them were marginalizing him. This last week was better. How do I know this? I am kind of retired and am a new junkie....like hour and hours reading all kinds of new sites.
As we say out here on the prairie: "Don't count your chickens before they hatch".
drm604
(16,230 posts)I think that Biden may take more votes away from Clinton than from Sanders. In which case he might actually help Sanders.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Also, Biden will probably be a very laid back campaigner. I think he wont attack either Hillary or Bernie. He will just rely on his name and experience and association with the President. I think his campaign theme will be if you want to have 4 more years of an "Obama-style" presidency then elect me.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Biden gives the "anybody but Hillary" crowd a person to support that is an actual Democrat.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)aikoaiko
(34,213 posts)There are reasonable scenarios where a Biden run helps Sanders. If you consider Biden support to be anti-Hillary then Bernie might be able to scoop them up when Joe bails
99Forever
(14,524 posts)The handwriting is on the wall.
We the People have had our fill of their bullshit and we are taking our Nation back.
Get on board or get the fuck out of the way.
The Revolution is now!
Feel the Bern.
MoveIt
(399 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)Like the gaffe issue. Though by now maybe it's not really problem. Saying crazy things seems OK now with the people.
One thing is he is not hated the way Hillary is. Those who hate her, hate her with a passion - especially the right wingers.
ColesCountyDem
(6,944 posts)Or is that just your opinion?
Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)the primary.
The MSM and the political establishment are pushing because he will be more of the same., but most of all because they can't wait to unleash the negative attacks, and they will make Hillary's MSM attackers seem like Sunday School teachers when they get started on Joe.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)Biden?
Life in the Clinton bubble must be interesting.
HassleCat
(6,409 posts)Biden would spell doom for both Sanders and Clinton?
