2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"In the long run, is the GOP dead?"
Sorry, but this is a Pat Buchanan article. I know he's an arrogant racist ass but he describes some issues that are real and are squarely on the minds of many in GOP.
Im not going to post any of the text.. just the link. The crux of the article is that demographics are changing and unless the GOP finds a way to attract minorities and younger people they are finished... which is absolutely true. Buchanan says this year may the GOP's last hurrah if Romney somehow manages to win. He also says once Texas goes, and it will go Dem eventually, its all over for the GOPers.
Limbaugh discussed this article at length today in a solemn serious manner. The Republicans are extremely worried about this issue. Im also worried what they are capable of doing once they realize they are finished.
Here's the article link:
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/07/27/in-the-long-run-is-the-gop-dead/
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)for the left. But we may soon enter a period of the Democratic party being the dominant party in presidential politics. It's long over due.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)I hope Romney loses. It would probably be in the GOPs best interest if Romney loses though. I think Romney could single handedly tarnish the GOP brand even worse than GW did. After all McCain didn't lose by that much. But, after a Romney WH well, I don't think Romney would be invited to give any endorsements or to help campaign for any other GOPers. Bush was politely turned down. I don't think they will be polite with Romney.
RKP5637
(67,112 posts)him on MSNBC. Several times there he said similar. Sometimes, he hits the nail square on the head, and this (I think) is one of those times.
Following the path the GOP wants, America will cease to exist for most Americans, they will be excluded in one way or another. IMO the GOP is completely obsolete, and as more come to realize this the GOP will be extinct.
I've often thought of the GOP as Domestic Terrorists, so I too am worried about what they are capable of as they become closer to being extinct.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think thats why Tweety liked to have him on his show.
LiberalLoner
(9,762 posts)RKP5637
(67,112 posts)dystopia. I'm always concerned too many Americans take everything for granted and believe many are for the best interests of the country. That might have been true at one time, but anymore not so true IMO.
SoutherDem
(2,307 posts)I want to focus on something you said;
If you have never seen a opossum get cornered, it isn't pretty. They of course first play dead, hoping you will ignore then while they escape to fight another day, but if you continue to approach they turn into an extremely vicious animal willing to kill by ripping you to threads to save their lives.
I can see the Republicans do the same thing. First they may play nice, hoping we will back off, but before giving up they will be willing to rip the country to threads to survive.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)excellent analogy... although I hope that does not happen.
RKP5637
(67,112 posts)cheezmaka
(737 posts)Seems like to me that's what they may be doing in the House right now... blocking the Jobs Bill and every bit of legislature by the Democrats all at the DEMISE of the Country!
KansDem
(28,498 posts)...there'll be the Repubs.
Or a facsimile thereof.
Enrique
(27,461 posts)finding a way to attract minorities doesnt sound like Pat, and in fact in the article he does not say that, he actually says that is hopeless since they are all dependent on welfare so they will never vote GOP.
I think Pats solution to the problem is fascism, though he doesnt come out and say it.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I must have gotten that from something Limbaugh said today. I think he thinks there is still hope if the GOPers can convince minorities that Democrats are actually to blame for their struggles... fat chance.
proud patriot
(100,713 posts)while pat looks at those stats and dreads I see them and Dance .
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Reposting in full
The Future Of The Republican Party (Retroactively from 2010)
I think we need to hold out for eight more years. If we can keep their voter suppression and rigged voting machines in check for just eight more years we just might have a chance at breaking the back of the Republican party and finally moving this country forward in the direction it was intended to move in, toward equality and fairness for all it's citizens.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010031101/
^snip^
The increase in the nonwhite share of the electorate over the next decade will have major consequences for electoral competition. If the Democratic Party is able to maintain anything close to the overwhelming advantage among nonwhite voters that it enjoyed in 2008, Republican candidates will need to win a considerably larger share of the white vote than their partys candidates did in 2008 or even 2004 in order to remain competitive in national elections. Under these circumstances, even a 60 percent share of the white vote would not be enough to give a Republican candidate a majority of the popular vote and the last Republican presidential candidate to win more than 60 percent of the white vote was Ronald Reagan in 1984.
An alternative path to victory for Republicans in future national elections would involve seeking to expand their Partys support among nonwhite voters. By winning a larger share of the nonwhite vote, a Republican candidate could be elected with considerably less than 60 percent of the white vote. But this would require the GOP to move away from its conservative base and closer to the ideological center because nonwhite voters tend to be strong supporters of increased spending on social programs and activist government.
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Along the same lines, 65 percent of nonwhite voters, including 64 percent of African-American voters and 73 percent of Hispanic voters, supported the creation of a single-payer health care system in the United States compared with only 15 percent of Republican primary voters. And given a choice between more government services with higher taxes and fewer government services with lower taxes, 67 percent of nonwhite voters, including 67 percent of African-American voters and 68 percent of Hispanic voters, chose more government services with higher taxes compared with only 25 percent of GOP primary voters.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It will be interesting to see how the GOP "deals" with this issue. We as Democrats need to be prepared for almost anything. They are like a cornered wild animal.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Or conservatives in Spain?
There will always be a knee jerk party.
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)change to Democratic.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think even if the GOP is able to steal it we will probably win some other states to more than make up for it... eg OH, VA, NC, FL.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)FL and VA may be safe, I think, especially in the former, thanks to Rick Scott's B.S.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Here are the latest polls..
RCP Average 6/24 - 7/18 -- 47.0 46.6 Romney +0.4
Civitas (R) 7/16 - 7/18 600 LV 49 48 Romney +1
PPP (D) 7/5 - 7/8 775 RV 46 47 Obama +1
Project New America/Myers (D) 7/1 - 7/8 500 LV 49 48 Romney +1
NBC News/Marist 6/24 - 6/25 1019 RV 44 46 Obama +2
Looks about as tight as it possible could get. Toss up for sure at this point.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)This may be good news here. Usually, when most polls show the President slightly ahead, he's usually doing notably better than it would seem, so we may win North Carolina after all.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think we can take NC if things go well between now and Nov.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Despite Scott's unpopularity and the Dems numerical superiority, FL will be a toss-up. Dem Party of Fl is pretty dysfunctional, they have a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)Even so, We've got plenty of support. Even if Ohio AND Florida go Republican, there's still Virginia.....It may be a southern state, but it's definitely going more and more Democratic by the day.
Romney CANNOT win this legally. The only surefire way for him to win would be for the GOP to game at least Florida and Pa., and hope that Ohio goes Republican as well.....although given that Wisconsin's voter ID law was vetoed, twice, and the fact that a lot of grassroots effort's been made to fight the Pa. law, there IS hope.
cheezmaka
(737 posts)two other scenarios would have to play out. If he wins Ohio and Florida, he wins the "election" even if all the other battleground states are RED. If he wins Ohio but doesn't win Florida, he would have to win NV,CO,IA, and NH.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)GOP is attracting a certain minority.
The 1 percent.
This year's election will be Mitt Romney trying to get the 1 percent to buy him the 2012 United States presidential election.
(Consider Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wisconsin.)
GoCubsGo
(32,086 posts)I heard on one of the talk radio shows today (either Thom Hartmann's or Jeff Santos' show, I can't remember which) that 45% of the current GOP are 55 years old or older. They may age themselves into oblivion, along with the help of the changing demographics.
crimson77
(305 posts)Sure we may get the Presidency, but it will be a toothless Executive. Why because unless they change the rules, 2 senators come from each state. So when demographagedeon happens, All the republicans need is 21 states to send their 2 senators to Washington to stop everything. Remember all the pissing and moaning during ACA, now imagine that on steriods. That's our future.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They will use whatever limited power they have left to stop this nation from becoming more liberal/progressive even if it means destroying it in the process.
GoCubsGo
(32,086 posts)That's why we have all these voter purges and voter suppression laws being passed in states where they control the government. They're writing it all into law, hoping it sticks, and they'll reach their dream of a one party system.
The same goes for all of the teabagger shit that's being passed in the House. And, as you pointed out DCBob, the filibustering in the Senate. Fortunately, Harry Reid said that if the Dems retain the Senate, he WILL be changing the rules.
The GOPers know, even now, if everyone votes they lose.
Sam1
(498 posts)the filibuster rules are a matter internal to the Senate and can be changed by simple majority vote at the beginning of each session.
The filibuster may have made some sort of sense before Lincoln made the United States Of America "..one Nation.." but not anymore.
Cosmocat
(14,568 posts)that people tend to turn "conservative" as they get older.
My mother was a Kennedy democrat who had connections to the county democratic party into her 40s.
She got into CNN when if first got big in the late 80s/early 90s, then ended up moving to Faux in the late 90s/into the 2000s. She also slipped into dementia, and that allowed Faux to assimilate her.
The older people get, the most liable they are to be sucked into their BS.
The older folks, the folks more liable to vote, are probably always going to at least lean "conservative."
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)What happened to your mother is not enough to make a rule applying to all. It is not something I see in my life at all. My Aunt passed away at 90+ last year, always Democratic, concerned that Obama would be too 'moderate' and wishing he was more liberal. So now we have one story from each side. Does either story add up to a rule for the elderly? No, it does not.
Cosmocat
(14,568 posts)They do, just common sense and experience.
Does that mean every person veers that direction.
No.
Winston Churchill had it right in general.
[link:http://neuropolitics.org/Aging-Induced%20Conservatism%20and%20the%20Right%20Hemisphere%20Aging%20Hypothesis.htm|
The Liberal cohort indicated an age-dependent improvement in language comprehension performance to rival or exceed the performance of the Conservatives in the Over 60 age cohort. Concurrent with this language comprehension improvement is a shift towards more organized and unambiguous reality models for the Liberals. This corresponds to the general decline in right hemispheric cognitive functions, which interfere more with visuospatial performance than language comprehension. It also points to a more left hemisphere influenced thinking style, which is more prone towards stronger Conservative and Religious beliefs. It also implies that an aging voting population will tend more towards Conservative and Religious agendas, all other environmental factors being equal.
CrispyQ
(36,501 posts)than it is their age. I saw the same thing happen with my mother - a turning away from the democratic party as she became more & more dissatisfied with her life.
When she started listening to Limbaugh in the early 90s it really accelerated! He is very good at getting people who are dissatisfied & vulnerable in their lives, to blame someone else for their problems. It's the fault of the gays, or the blacks or the Hispanics or the feminists - all who are liberal!
It's certainly not their own fault because they played by the rules all their life, so it must be someone else's fault. My mother made some disastrous decisions & she would never admit that a lot of her plight was due to those bad decisions. It was easier to blame someone else.
I sent her that "Joe Conservative" commentary & asked her, "What is it about these policies that you object to?" & she couldn't answer. It was then that I knew she still believed in democratic values, but somewhere along the line she got it all skewed & thought they were just for some people, not all people.
We had a very conflicted relationship toward the end.
FWIW, I've gotten more & more liberal as I get older. I see that in my husband, too. So don't write all us old people off!
crimson77
(305 posts)2 regular looking guys. They were arguing with the woman working the register about how much money one of them had on their EBT card. Now I grew up poor in Section 8 housing, so I tend to not pass judgement on people about being poor. But these 2 guys were in there late 20's, looked perfectly heathly and there arguing with this poor woman who probably makes less then them all told. I work 2 rather unglamorous job's and go to school and these 2 idiots can't find one decent paying job between, hence becoming more conservative. END RANT
Cosmocat
(14,568 posts)LOTS of good, SANE older folks.
You just see it more than not with most folks as they get older.
CBHagman
(16,987 posts)However, I think money (which equals power) and media ownership specifically are still playing a role, and while I'm very optimistic about the demographic shifts and that the GOP is losing ground on many of its socially conservative wedge issues, I'm not certain how long it's going to take to shift the entire political ground.
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)Mexican Americans can start throwing their weight around in Arizona and Texas very soon.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)and the 1/2-latino Texas gets redder every year.
Wake the fuck up.
madrchsod
(58,162 posts)JHB
(37,161 posts)...take everything Pat has written, everything he has said, everything he has done, and bind it together as a "What NOT To Do" manual.
The party is what you and your pals made it, Patsy.
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)Almost nobody gets welfare checks in this country anymore; it is a small budget that goes to single mothers. Food stamps might give a family a few thousand dollars a year. Feed three people on $20/day?
I hated that racist premise in Fat Buchanan's article. However, I did find it interesting that by eliminating federal taxes for the working class, the GOP has given itself no "tax cuts tactic" with which to attract working class voters.
Like my ski buddy says: "sucks to be you, gop"
madinmaryland
(64,933 posts)base hates all of them.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)through desperation
DCBob
(24,689 posts)How radical will they get? And what are they capable of? Ideological fanaticism can often lead to extreme actions.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)they did that.
Like advocating failed trickle down economics - they still do that.
As far as violent or unconstitutional extreme actions - I think they know it hurts their hold over their constituents.
Cosmocat
(14,568 posts)After 2006 and 2008, I thought the republicans would be hard pressed to get any of the three branches moving forward.
Two years later, after the ginned up tea party BS and Ds going full retarded over unrealistic expecations of what BO could do, the Rs had a big majority in the House and the Ds held on to the Senate literally by a hair. This election, very likely the Rs hold the house with a decent margin AND get the senate.
GOD WILLING BO gets through November without anything major happening and hangs on, they will spend the next four years doing to him what they did to Clinton.
I get the point about demographics, but I am skeptical that it will swing the the tide of the country in the next few decades.
The Rs have a mortal lock on the "liberal media" and are able to move public opinion in any way they want 90% of the time. It is only when they screw up in a disastrous manner (like Iraq, and the dipsticks in this country waited until after 2004 so we were subjected to the disaster that was GWB for four more years to hold them accountable for it) that they can't drive public opinion.
What they sell, fear and the rejection of personal responsibility, are better than gold. It will ALWAYS sell, and again, they will ALWAYS have the media to pitch what they are selling.
Demographics have to swing VERY, VERY far to get past it ...
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Faux nooz, RW talk radio and rest of RW media will keep the ignorant masses brainwashed.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)combined with critical thought too.
And, they know that, and do whatever they possibly can to fight against our progression to a higher minded people ...
Bosso 63
(992 posts)Remember the Peanuts cartoon, where Lucy holds the football for Charlie Brown to kick? Lucy promises that "this time" she won't trick him, but of course she does. At the last second she pulls the ball and Charlie Brown lands on his back.
So it is with the GOP. The social conservatives get conned into doing the leg work for the GOP, but after the election they get tax cuts that benefit the rich Clearly, they are not the sharpest knives in the drawer, but some day they will realize the game is rigged, and then the party is over.
Hippo_Tron
(25,453 posts)Certainly not all of them, many stay liberal their entire lives. But remember, a lot of baby boomers who were protesting Vietnam went on to help elect Reagan. Some of them even became Republican politicians.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)"Whites, already a minority in our two most populous states, will be less than half the U.S. population by 2041 and a minority in 10 states by 2020."
Conservative whites will slowly not be the majority anymore. Minorities will not be minorities anymore and are more traditionally liberal. That may change, but I have a hard time believing that they will suddenly become ultra conservative. Also, social views are changing among all ages. Gay rights are becoming more accepted by more then just people in their 20's and 30's. Religion has less of a role in people's lives. People are more connected with technology and less inclined to be controlled. And Repubs like to control people.
greymattermom
(5,754 posts)I wonder how their membership is doing. One of them in our area went bankrupt and was bought by the school district.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)That inspired me:
MjolnirTime
(1,800 posts)The Party of Old Rich White Men is finally about to find out the true meaning of a Melting Pot.
It has been a real long time a comin'.
Arent you the dude who was bashing me a few months for supposedy supporting Romney? Its not over yet, but the way things are going for Mitt-the twit, you have to admit we couldnt have chosen a better opponent. Right?
MjolnirTime
(1,800 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Romney is a known factor, he's an idiot, boring and a guaranteed gaffe machine.
dougtaylor
(8 posts)Demographically they can't survive and compete. Especially if as they hang on now they refuse to govern.
The real question for Democrats is what are we going to do to make sure that we represent all of the people and gain then maintain a dominant governing majority. As good as this news is for us eventually, we still have bi questions to ask of ourselves.
geckosfeet
(9,644 posts)This is typical rw crap - I am sorry I followed the link. Now I see why you did not post an excerpt. You should have - to warn people away from Buchannons hateful shit. What he is saying is that the GOPs messages of hate, discrimination, religious exclusion and economic entitlement are alienating minority and white voters - and that they need to frame the message more carefully. That they need to better deceive the voters. To dupe them into voting against their interests.
In the long run, is the GOP dead?
Of the seven mega-states, California, New York and Illinois appear lost to the GOP. Pennsylvania has not gone Republican since 1988. Ohio and Florida, both crucial, are now swing states. Whites have become a minority in Texas. When Texas goes, America goes.
...
Half of all U.S. wage-earners pay no income tax. Yet that half and their families receive free education K-12, Medicaid, rent supplements, food stamps, earned income tax credits, Pell grants, welfare payments, unemployment checks and other benefits.
Why should poor, working- and middle-class Hispanics, the vast majority, vote for a party that will reduce taxes they dont pay, but cut the benefits they do receive?
...
If your racial and ethnic voter base is aging, shrinking and dying, your moral code is being rejected, and the tax-consuming class has been allowed to grow to equal or to dwarf the taxpaying class, the Grand Old Party has a problem. But then so, too, does the country.
It may be based in reality, but he is lamenting the fact that GOP racist policies have alienated minorities. This is thinly veneered hate speech.
This is GOP horseshit.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I posted it to expose an issue that is seriously freaking them out. This is kind of stuff we need to know to keep track of these assholes and know where they might be headed.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)A couple Pat Classics to balance the presence of his writing being presented here seriously.
Pat Buchanan, 1992:
"integration of blacks and whites -- but even more so, poor and well-to-do -- is less likely to result in accommodation than it is in perpetual friction, as the incapable are placed consciously by government side by side with the capable."
Same year, on Adolf Hitler:
"an individual of great courage.... Hitler's success was not based on his extraordinary gifts alone. His genius was an intuitive sense of the mushiness, the character flaws, the weakness masquerading as morality that was in the hearts of the statesmen who stood in his path." http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=2553
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think we all know Buchanan's background.
I just think this article will stir even more fear and anger in the "hearts" and "minds" of the RW cons. We need to monitor stuff like this to better strategize... "know your enemy".
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)their %'s in the elections are getting bigger, not smaller.
Jamaal510
(10,893 posts)but there is one thing that I have been skeptical about. There's all this talk about minorities eventually becoming the majority in a few decades, but how do people know for sure that trend will continue?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)why would they change any time soon?
Zoeisright
(8,339 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)and why they are happy to see Romney get killed in a landslide.
They want him out of the way and the party willing to leave the nuttery so they can try and bring it back to the middle.
Buchanan is right, if they don't turn around the non white vote, especially the Hispanic then they have no futre as a national party.
killbotfactory
(13,566 posts)then the Democrats will fracture into two parties, conservative dems and progressives.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)Jesus H Christ.