2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumQuinnipiac: Obama +6 in OH, +6 in FL, +11 in PA
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/01/us/politics/01quinnipiac-new-york-times-cbs-poll.htmlGood numbers!
oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)hope that the vote isn't suppressed in Pa or Fl..
jerseyjack
(1,361 posts)Marzupialis
(398 posts)?
yankeepants
(1,979 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)A 47 - 53 split is huge in Presidential elections.
I'll take 6 points in places like FL and OH.
Hawaii Hiker
(3,168 posts)In Reagan's 84 landslide, he got 58%, and the only places he lost were DC & Minnesota....
liberal N proud
(60,913 posts)How far do those numbers have to be before I feel comfortable that they can't steal it. I think they would still try at 6%
Wounded Bear
(60,422 posts)Generally it's a very good sign when Pres Obama's numbers get above 50%.
As far as stealing anything, normally the spread would have to be within the margin of error, usually around 3-4%, to get away with it. So 5-6% is excellent on that front.
But you're right. they've been getting more brazen, and the theft factor plus the voter suppression factor could shift the numbers back into steal-able range.
So, no getting 'comfortable' this cycle. We need a solid GOTV effort, like 2008, to avoid another 2010, If we get out and vote, they can't win.
cheezmaka
(785 posts)I believe it wil take BOTH voter suppression and purging for the Republicans to "steal" this election. Dems would really have to "step" our game up...
nxylas
(6,440 posts)Or, to translate that into Republican: the only reliable pollster has Romney ahead in the only state that matters, since it is impossible to become President without winning Iowa. Hell, they might as well not even bother letting people vote in other states at all. And thanks to our diligence in protecting America from voter fraud, pretty soon, they won't.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)democrat_patriot
(2,774 posts)It is the whole narrative: Bain, taxes, secrecy and buffoonery in Europe.
I think deep down they Bush 2.0
Good news!
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I wasn't really asking.
cheezmaka
(785 posts)Might as well save some cash for the 4TH QUARTER!!!
flamingdem
(39,840 posts)I remember reading that there were many who thought it was the wrong angle
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)Yeah, they never get anything wrong.
I think the media wants this election to be closer for a number of reasons and none of them have anything to do with an honest discussion of policy or for the sake of democratic principle.
neeksgeek
(1,214 posts)Buried in the poll, we see that roughly 60% of Americans believe taxes should be raised on households with income greater than $250,000.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)INdemo
(7,014 posts)or actually any network site for that matter
"New poll shows Obama with significant lead in swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/new-poll-shows-obama-with-significant-lead-in-swing-states-of-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/2012/08/01/gJQAuvbxOX_blog.html?hpid=z1
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)We have no idea how the voter ID & purges in these states are going to impact the final votes. They say there could be close to 800k voters in Pennsylvania alone that could be impacted by the Voter ID bill. Just to give you an idea of the type of impact that would have in Pennsylvania - Obama won PA by 10points in 2008 or 620,478 votes over John McCain. Since the vast majority of those 800K voters impacted by Voter ID bills are the elderly, the young and minorities mainly in the urban areas of Phillly and a bit from Pittsburgh - that could put Romney over the top of Obama. Romney could win simply because PA GOP created a law that would disenfranchise legal voters from their rights to vote.
Wounded Bear
(60,422 posts)But we have to keep fighting.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)or put a stop to it, we have to fight like that is the norm in November.
cheezmaka
(785 posts)I probably need to go to PA to help get some of those voters in "compliance" . The National Action Network is probably already there to help educate voters on the new ID laws but they STILL need all the help they can get...
grantcart
(53,061 posts)WeAskAmerica, a right wing poll is showing a similar move. They ran it twice because they were surprised that so many Republicans are going to Obama.
Given how static these numbers are then this is a big move.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/125160887
Expect Portman to be VP.
Hawaii Hiker
(3,168 posts)in Ohio by 5-7%....
grantcart
(53,061 posts)He also isn't going to help him at all in Florida, Romney's other must have state.
Hawaii Hiker
(3,168 posts)she is pro-choice, so there is NO. WAY. she'll be accepted by the repub base as a VP, especially when you consider how all over the place Mitt has been on abortion...
yellowcanine
(36,276 posts)Does (the presidential candidate) care or not care about the needs
and problems of people like you?
Obama Does Does Not
FL 55 42
OH 55 43
PA 58 39
Romney
FL 42 49
OH 38 55
PA 39 54
Scroll down to page 5 of poll:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/01/us/politics/01quinnipiac-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html
grantcart
(53,061 posts)re: your point the commercials on Romney outsourcing and taxes is killing him, and he will not be able to recover.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,440 posts)The M$M only seems interested when Mitt is either tied, or has a slight lead. The president doesn't get such favorable coverage.
yellowcanine
(36,276 posts)stupid "Who would you rather have a beer with" crap that went on in 2000 and 2004. And this year the "likability" difference is shaping up as a chasm in Obama's favor.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,440 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)demosincebirth
(12,730 posts)yellowcanine
(36,276 posts)And I don't think he can win Ohio without at least narrowing it. So I think his goose may be cooked there. Which means he must win Florida and probably Virginia as well if he is to have any chance. And then he probably still needs to knock off a big blue state such as Michigan.
Bake
(21,977 posts)If it holds ... and I think it will not only hold but widen.
Bake
flamingdem
(39,840 posts)nice