New national poll (sept. 24-27): Clinton 44%, Sanders 23%, Biden 19%.

[twii]

Sept. 24-27

http://morningconsult.com/2015/09/poll-biden-broadly-favorable-but-clinton-still-leads/

[leftofcool]

1. Still ahead by double digits, still the next President.

[workinclasszero]

52. Awesome...Go Hillary!

[wolfie001]

2. Good news!

It's a shame how many people here at DU have been sucked into the, and I quote: "VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY". The repukes are more fetid then 1994, or whenever the next President said that.

[Metric System]

3. I bet this one won't make headlines.

[Robbins]

4. MSM at it again

whenever a poll has good news for bernie they manufacture another one saying Hilary has no problems

Guess which one will get more play today

[Godhumor]

5. This poll is in line with every other poll from the past two months, except the one outlier

And the outlier grabbed all the attention.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Now, Morning Consult is including Biden.

eom

[FloridaBlues]

7. Always like to see these types of poll numbers

[Honeylies]

8. What the hell is morningconsult.com?

Some rinky dinky shoddy polling site? I had to dig for methodology. I couldnt find anything specific to this poll. I dont recall seeing them on realclearpolitics. Who paid for this thing?

How is the NBC/WSJ an outlier when Clinton has been steadily loosing ground and Bernie has been steadily building momentum? It's in line.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. If I felt as strongly as you I would find their office and...

What the hell is morningconsult.com?

Some rinky dinky shoddy polling site? I had to dig for methodology. I couldnt find anything specific to this poll. I dont recall seeing them on realclearpolitics. Who paid for this thing?

If I felt as strongly as you I would find their office and immolate myself in front of it to shine a light on their shoddy practices.

[Honeylies]

10. Yikes

I hope your loved ones carry a fire extinguisher around you, you seem rather emotional.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Shouldn't we all be vigilant re deceptive practices and willing to shine a light on them?

eom

[Honeylies]

14. Yes! Which is why I questioned their methodology

In a public forum. No need to light oneself on fire. But you go right ahead. You be you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. More efficacious

More efficacious:

-Criticizing what you see as Morning Consult's "shoddy" polling practice on an anonymous bulletin board.

or


-Immolating yourself in front of their office to draw attention to what you see as their "shoddy" polling practices.

[Honeylies]

20. A permanent solution to a temporary problem

I recommend you seek help with your reasoning skills.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. You almost got me there...

A permanent solution to a temporary problem
I recommend you seek help with your reasoning skills

You almost got me there. A hunger strike would be more suitable because then you would be alive to conduct a hunger strike to protest the next "shoddy" poll you found wanting.

[Honeylies]

23. Or may I suggest a "Third Way"

In honor of our Third Way candidate.

We just wait for a few more polls to come out to confirm the trend?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Actually, the poll is in line with the trend

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[Honeylies]

26. See post #12

Morning consult is not in line for Sanders on this poll and the tend to be Hillary-friendly over time. If they happened to be Bernie or Biden friendly most of the time and had sketchy methodology, I would still question them. I wouldn't douse myself in lighter fluid or anything, but I'd post about it here.

[Godhumor]

29. Conveniently ignoring the posts responding to post 12, I see

Until this poll, Biden was not included. Clinton has been right around ten points better in every poll without Biden. This poll included Biden and Clinton is in line with all other polls that include him with her 43% support.

NBC is the outlier; not this one.

[Honeylies]

44. Doesn't change the fact

That the morning consult poll uses sh!t methodology. NBC/WSJ is a solid poll. The morning consult poll is SHODDY so I'm gonna go ahead and not worry about it, but if Hillaryphiles want to cling to it as a beacon of hope, that's their choice. Time will tell if the latest NBC/WSJ is an outlier or not, but it appears to be a continuation of a trend.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

[Live and Learn]

42. I can't believe you posted that. Not sure if advocating suicide is against TOS

but it should be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Self sacrifice has a long and storied tradition as does irony.

Self sacrifice has a long and storied tradition as does irony, think Christ on the Cross, Socrates drinking the hemlock, Joan Of Arc being burned at the stake. Thankfully my interlocutor has a sense of the latter as well as the former.

I would also note that I wrote what I would do in that situation.

Live and learn, amigo or amiga.

[Honeylies]

48. I never thought

Questioning a poll would have led to someone immediately suggesting I light myself on fire. I certainly underestimated the repressive nature of some of the individuals on this forum!

[MoveIt]

46. GIFTED with the preternatural ability to feel what others feel

And yet all your posts seem to be without a single speck of empathy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. My feelings are hurt.

GIFTED with the preternatural ability to feel what others feel. And yet all your posts seem to be without a single speck of empathy.

My feelings are now hurt. Consistency can be a demanding lover.

[Motown_Johnny]

13. Please read my post #12, and don't worry about this poll

It isn't accurate.

[Godhumor]

17. RCP doesn't include internet polls

And NBC/WSJ is an outlier. Fox shows Bernie at 30, but he was also 30 in the Fox poll a month ago (zero movement). Otherwise, Bernie has averaged 23 to 27 points across the board whether Biden is included or not.

[Hortensis]

22. Pollster aggregate 22 hours ago had Clinton 43%, Sanders 28%. However,

as of today FiveThirtyEight counts endorsements as
HRC 341
Biden 16
Sanders, O'Malley, Chafee, and Webb are all apparently 0.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. Morning Consult is almost always an outlier in Hillary's favor.

Go to this link please: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary#!mindate=2015-05-01&estimate=custom


Then use your cursor to hover over those little purple dots well above the median line. You will see that Morning Consult has now had 5 polls in a row well outside the median in Hillary's favor (including this one which is not on the chart as of this posting). Nearly half of those dots above the line in the last month are from them. They are skewing the average in her favor.


I don't know if their methodology is flawed or if they are just in the tank for her, but the pattern is very clear.

You can put your hopes here if you want, but you may be in for a big disappointment fairly soon.





edit to add: They had her at 54% to Bernie's 24% in the 9/11 - 9/13 poll. So even according to this inaccurate pollster, she has lost a lot of ground in the last couple of weeks.

[Godhumor]

15. They're higher because, until this one, they didn't include Biden

And with Biden in, she is at the same level as others polls have been for 2 months.

[DanTex]

18. Poll trutherism at its finest.

As others have pointed out, MC polls were higher for HRC because they didn't include Biden, which in all polls gives her about a 10 point bump over Bernie.

[Godhumor]

31. Again, 9/11-9/13 did not include Biden

Her drop is the fact that they chose to include Biden.

Your assertion this poll is flawed based on past history is easily refuse by looking at Biden/No Biden timeline.

Right now, this supports the assertion NBC if the erroneous poll, not everything else from the past two months.

[oasis]

19. Picking up steam, rolling towards Super Tuesday, and beyond.

[HerbChestnut]

25. More variation.

Sorry, Hillary supporters, this poll does not confirm anything just like Sunday's did not confirm Bernie is over 30% yet. Polls are subject to variation just like any other data that is collected. What matters is the trend, and that trend is clear in that Hillary is declining while Sanders and Biden are rising. It's worth noting that this poll also has Trump at 31% whereas Sunday's poll had him at 21(ish)%. We'll be able to put this poll, and the last one, into context once a few more polls are released. But it might be worth considering that 3 out of the last 4 national polls have Bernie over 30%.

[Godhumor]

27. Let's look at those three

Fox had Bernie at 30 in August and 30 in September. No trend change there.

Reuters' ridiculous 5 day tracking had Bernie back down to 25% two days after reporting his number at 30.

NBC/WSJ had Bernie so far outside the norm, that it is reasonable to think it is an outlier. The fact that the first poll after the WSJ number is a return to the Bernie plateau of mid20s further supports this assertion.

[HerbChestnut]

35. Not really.

You're cherry picking information and making false assumptions. Every long term poll tracker has Bernie rising on average and Hillary descending on average. That is a fact. When looking at a cloud of data points, you can't pick out one of those points and draw conclusions off of it. You have to look at what came before it, and what comes after it to put it in proper context. We'll know where the candidates stand *now* in about 2 or three weeks' time when the next round of polls come out.

[Godhumor]

40. It is very well established Bernie is in the mid20s and has been for two months

The narrowing of the gap between Clinton and Sanders is due to Biden being polled which knocks her down from mid 50s to mid 40s.

Bernie is not going up in the polls except for one single poll. Cherry picking info is going off that one poll versus the abundance of info that says otherwise.

And set the RCP aggregate to 8/1 through today. Right around the middle of August, Berniesettled at his current level and hasn't moved since. His latest uptick is based off the NBC outlier poll and the Fox News poll that showed him with a movement of zero since August. The other three polls currently being averaged in? 24, 25, 24. Right on line with this new poll.

[HerbChestnut]

43. Well then we're clearly seeing two different things.

Yes, many polls in the last few weeks have Bernie in the mid 20s, but he's been trending upward and now we have a few polls coming out showing him in the 30s. When I see that, I see potential for him to move upward more than he already has.

[stillwaiting]

38. We haven't had our first debate yet. I'm looking forward to the start of our primary season. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Actually, two

But it might be worth considering that 3 out of the last 4 national polls have Bernie over 30%.

That has more to do with the vagaries of how ipsos-reuters releases their polling data, ergo:


http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20150808-20150925/collapsed/false


9-20-9-25

HRC-43%
SBS- 25%
JB-16%

[HerbChestnut]

33. That link proves my point...

Even there, the trend has Bernie rising and Hillary descending. Variation will always occur, but you can clearly see the average increasing for Sanders.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I am not disputing there has been movement.

I am suggesting that the NBC poll with its 6.1 % MOE might exaggerate the movement.

[HerbChestnut]

39. Probably not.

MOE doesn't affect the accuracy of the poll, only its precision. With a 6.1% error, Bernie's floor in that poll would have been 29%, which is still continues the trend upward. His ceiling was 41%. Likewise, Hillary's floor was 37ish%. That actually puts them in a statistical tie. A pollster won't report results if their MOE is too large. Remember that poll last week when people were claiming nobody under 50 got polled? Obviously, people under 50 *were* polled, but the MOE of those demographics was so high that the pollster didn't feel confident in reporting the results. There's nothing wrong with NBC's poll.

[Godhumor]

36. The overall average for the time period shown in that graph is 46 Clinton 25 Sanders

Right in line with other poll averages from August through September.

[HerbChestnut]

41. Exactly, good. Now you're looking at averages.

I've said this in other posts in this thread, but I'll say it again. We won't know where exactly the candidate's stand today for another couple of weeks once more numbers come in. Then we can go back and average more results together to see where the trendline is going.

[snot]

28. So Clinton 44 vs 42 who prefer either a Socialist or someone who's not running?

Or did I miss Biden's announcement (quite possible)?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. When was the last time a sitting vice president, candidacy announced or not, ...

When was the last time a sitting vice president, candidacy announced or not, is trailing a member of his own party for his party's nomination by twenty five points?


Thank you in advance.

[twii]

37. Or...Sanders vs. 63% wo pick either someone you think is dishonest and a non candidate

Isn't spin wonderful?

[magical thyme]

49. Found their methodology. Note that their polls are "sponsored," but haven't found yet who sponsored

this one. I've written to the article author to find out.

Poll with us.
National Public Opinion Poll (Price: $33,750/Poll)

Our weekly national polls are conducted among 2,000 registered voters. The questionnaire is developed collaboratively with clients and includes 45 questions, plus demographic and screening questions. Fielding a national public opinion poll with Morning Consult ensures your poll findings will reach our elite audience of government and industry leaders.

http://morningconsult.com/about/

Here's more on this specific poll:
The Morning Consult tracking poll surveyed 1,543 registered voters between Sept. 24-27, for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. A subsample of 637 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The subsample of 643 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents carried an identical margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

[Honeylies]

50. FWIW Pollster would likely prefer to see Hillary vs Bernie in office

Michael Ramlet, the founder and CEO of Morning consult, bio:

"Michael Ramlet is a domestic policy and economic expert. He leads Purple Policy, a consulting practice that advises government affairs, business strategy, and financial services clients on the economic impact of political and policy changes. In addition, Ramlet is the founder and editor of The Morning Consult, a daily healthcare industry and public policy briefing that is subscribed to by over 2400 policymakers and executives. He has also served as an outside adviser to the nation’s Republican Governors. Prior to joining Purple, Michael was a policy director at the American Action Forum."

Source: https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/person/michael-ramlet

American Action Forum aka American Action Network: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/American_Action_Network

Purple Policy is part of Purple Strategies, another right-left alliance sort of thing. Hired to do the PR for the Deepwater Horizon Spill.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purple_Strategies

Not to be all tinfoil hat. It's just worth noting. Morning Consult seems a bit sketchy iMHO

[BlueWaveDem]

51. Go Hillary!