My message to FiveThirtyEight.com

[MannyGoldstein]

25,000+ endorsements just in one city, in one night.

From the heart.

From people I actually care about. From people who actually care about me.

Go suck on the calculus of that.

[Ed Suspicious]

1. Amen, brother!

[sabrina 1]

2. Correction. 32,000! Other than that, I completely agree with you.

[OilemFirchen]

3. Can you attach this too, please?

Nickelback at Pepsi Center, 6/10/12

[Jurassic Fiend]

7. And this is relevant, how?

Poopsi Center is owned by the Repuklican Stanley Kroenke, who is trying to move St. Louis Rams to L.A.

[mindwalker_i]

27. Did the space-time continuum just

get its ass kicked, or have I been drinking too much?

[MannyGoldstein]

14. And who can forget...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3122756/Millionaire-Hillary-launch-campaign-slightly-arrogant-Woodstock-rally-New-York-City-island-promises-look-ordinary-Americans-pocketbooks.html

[Hydra]

40. *Sizzle*

Oh, that's going to leave a mark...or a Bern :p

[LovingA2andMI]

50. Ouch....

[beam me up scottie]

4. Look at all the kids in front, too!

Beautiful!

You tell em, Manny!

[MannyGoldstein]

8. The disaffected have become affected

to great effect.

Even our teenager was thrilled to see Bernie, despite his parents being thrilled, too.

[beam me up scottie]

12. That's how you KNOW he's got something.

Usually one sure way to get your teens to hate something is to tell them you love it.

Sounds like a great kid.

[MannyGoldstein]

17. His mother's smarts

(She's got 15 IQ points on me.)

But his dad's bad attitude.

Trouble!

[EvolveOrConvolve]

100. Yea, but it's gotta be photoshopped

Cuz I see a couple black kids in the photo, and I've heard that Bernie is a raging racist.

(for those who can't tell)

[beam me up scottie]

101. LOL!

I was wondering if certain people were going to come along and play Where's Waldo? with the poc in those crowds.

It went over SO well last time.

[RKP5637]

102. Yep! Beautiful!!! Bernie is not the SOS. n/t

[beam me up scottie]

103. What was the first thing HC supporters on DU said about Bernie's fans?

That they were all going to be old white people?

Well shut the front door!

[Thinkingabout]

5. How many of those endorsements are going to be delegates at the DNC Convention 2016?

[MannyGoldstein]

6. The ThirdWayDNC will @#$& with The People's will

at their peril.

Americans will be heard the easy way, or the hard way. But we will be heard.

[Thinkingabout]

11. Yes you are right, a group with a business plan, right kind to have on her side.

[MannyGoldstein]

18. Government of, by, and for corporations?

No thanks!

[Thinkingabout]

19. News to me, thought this was a think tank with smart people planning.

[daleanime]

28. And your plan is to disparage....

people who want to improve things for everyone?

[Thinkingabout]

49. Actually disparaging remarks has been made about DLC and as others say Third Way, a group who has

plans to help people and improve their lives.

[daleanime]

52. Actually anything honest said about the DLC and the Third Way....

is going to sound disparaging. It's just the facts about their mission. By the 1%, for the !%. Kind of hard to make that look noble. But I'm sure you'll try, just don't hurt yourself.

[Marty McGraw]

55. And that improvement

would probably resemble something like this:

[zeemike]

30. Or with sociopaths piloting.

But sociopaths are smart too and that is why business has become a cancer on this country instead of a blessing.
They have adopted the religion of Ayn Rand and the Virtues of Selfishness...and now they own the political system.

[mhatrw]

61. You mean, America's business is business?

[Thinkingabout]

64. It sure is, presidents has an agenda they would like to see put into place. Business plans are good

[mhatrw]

66. Business as usual plan n/t

[Thinkingabout]

67. Business as usual or no plan at all, I will go for a business plan.

[ish of the hammer]

73. what business are you in?

[Thinkingabout]

74. I had my own company, yes we had a business plan, a business has to have direction and

not changing with the wind. Even if you work for a company there needs to be a plan of life, plan for retirement, etc

[ish of the hammer]

75. Bull shit.

how do you plan for the robber barons stealing your life saving legally?
what happened to your 401k in 2009? - thanks Bill!
the only people that have been seeing their plans come to fruition are the 1%'s, which you are still not one of, since you're here reading this.
"Hillary: Making sure women get a bigger piece of the middle-class pie that her neoliberal, DLC, pro-Wall Street, pro-Pentagon, pro-TPP, Republican-lite economic policies are designed to shrink.

by expatjourno"

[ish of the hammer]

78. but I get it.

don't panic, stay the course.
Obama is great and H will be even better!!
O.K.
only if you are a 1% er.

[Thinkingabout]

80. Not a 1%, not even a 10%, but I planned ahead for retirement.

[Thinkingabout]

79. Tell me bullshit when you retire and there isn't enough money to support yourself.

[Blus4u]

87. My my my

A bit vitriolic, huh

[ish of the hammer]

91. been retired since 2009

own 2 homes, put 2 kids through college.
thanks to the government and unions.

[ish of the hammer]

92. strangely enough

no business plan.

[Thinkingabout]

93. Yes, there was a business plan, just handled by the union, creating perhaps a pension and health

Insurance and a better salary. Thank the union for their planning.

[ish of the hammer]

94. I do thank the union.

I was a shop steward for over 10 years.
have a nice day

[Thinkingabout]

95. I was a shop steward for 31 years.

[Art_from_Ark]

68. Calvin Coolidge believed in that

It got us into trouble just a few months after he was safely out of office.

[neverforget]

9. I'd rather have the people behind me

[Jurassic Fiend]

10. All of them

When it is all said and done, Hillary will be stuck with about 600 total delegates/superdelegates and zero path to the nomination, as it is the will of the voters who wants Bernie, not the establishment.

[Fawke Em]

15. How many people will tear the Democratic Party stem to stern if

the super-delegates try to usurp the people?

If Bernie has a small majority - but still a majority - of the people's vote and it comes down to the super-delegates to pull Hillary over the top, you can bet the party disintegrates into civil war, which will cost Hillary the general (not that I think she'd win it, anyway).

That you even think pushing this super-delegate meme is a viable option to allowing the people to vote shows everything that is wrong with Clinton's campaign: an entitled candidate who uses her power and the party's machinations to rule over the "little" people, showing that she cares more about herself than the country.

[senz]

38. Very well said, Fawke Em.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

72. That would mean civil war for the Party.

Bernie must get the same treatment from the delegates as Obama did in 2008, or else.

[senz]

35. Is that how it works? Get the delegates all tied up and to hell with the people?

And you're proud to be associated with that?

[Thinkingabout]

46. No, it is not how it works, there will be caucuses and voting and delegates assigned accordling.

I am surprised this procedure is not known.

[Fawke Em]

81. We know about it.

What we don't want is the scenario I proposed: a tight race where Sanders has more of the people's vote, but the duper selegates (written that way on purpose) usurping their vote to push Hillary over.

[Thinkingabout]

84. Sanders has had twenty five years in Congress to estalish relationships with members of

Congress, one has to work with others if you expect to get bills passed. Bernie knows this.

[ctsnowman]

104. If that

happens I just may stay home on election day.

[artislife]

44. The real question is

how many of that crowd is likely to convert to Hillary if she get the nom.

[Gothmog]

13. Karl Rove and Mitt Romney tried to dismiss Nate Silvers and claim that he was wrong

Good luck with this attempt. Nate's numbers are still good

[MannyGoldstein]

16. Aug 11: "The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-bernie-sanders-surge-appears-to-be-over/

[uponit7771]

21. How was he wrong? tia

[MannyGoldstein]

23. Since you asked...

[uponit7771]

24. That chart doesn't show a continued "surge" by Bernie and after months of a ADMITTED...

... effort by the GOP leadership to knock her polling numbers it looks like she's doing excellent

[MannyGoldstein]

25. ???

I guess we read graphs differently.

[uponit7771]

26. or, we define "surge" differently?

[reformist2]

41. Doing excellent? If that were a stock market chart, investors would be bailing out of HRC fast!

[uponit7771]

42. ...and I'd be piling in seeing the extenuating circumstances and the long term trend of her

... polling standing up exceptionally if there was no concerted effort to knock them down by the GOP via government proceedings.

What's crazy though is the people on the left who support the GOP leaderships efforts

But of course Hillary is the 3rd way republican

[Gothmog]

59. Here is a more recent Silver article

The last three paragraphs of this article are great. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

And guess what? They sorta have a point. Although his gains may not be as great as before, polls in August showed Sanders continuing to pick up support in New Hampshire (the situation in Iowa is less clear). But the fundamentals of the race haven’t changed very much. In particular, Sanders has shown little sign of winning over votes from African-Americans or Hispanics, which would limit his growth as the race moves on to more racially diverse states.....

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.

There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasn’t won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators haven’t changed over the past month.

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Sanders is still not polling well with groups other than the all white base of supporters. Until Sanders expand his appeal to other key bases of the Democratic party, I agree with Nate Silver that Sanders will not be the Democratic party nominee

[Fawke Em]

20. Different era. Different candidate. Different election.

To Nate's credit, I don't think he's wrong with what he has to work with. It's just I don't think the polls are as accurate as they used to be.

Most polling firms use "likely" voters in their calculations. Bernie is appealing to young people and disengaged people who wouldn't be considered "likely" voters to most polling firms because they've never voted before or haven't voted in a long time. Young people also don't have "home" phones and use cell phones exclusively. While many polling firms are now including cell phones, the fact is that these young people won't be on any prepared list because they've never been involved before. In other words, their cell phones aren't in many polling databases.

I think we started to see this phenomenon during the Obama/Clinton wars in 2008. I think Obama was probably higher in 2007 than we initially believed and that wasn't born out in the polling until we actually started voting. But, I don't think his new voter numbers were quite as high as Sanders' will prove to be.

You're also comparing Silver's calculations in the general election to a primary, which even he admits is harder to predict. Right now, we have more than 20 people running for two positions, so getting an accurate read based on antiquated polling is a bit harder.

In any case, the polls still show Bernie heading up, despite rarely being mentioned in televised M$M (he's getting more attention, now, from print journalists, but many people still don't read much). After the debates, we'll see some culling, but I still don't think it will reflect the enthusiasm from young voters and voters who haven't been very active in the past.

[uponit7771]

22. The likely unlikely voters were used by Romney too... Sanders is not connecting with a wide enough

... swath of voters.

He can though, it's looking more like if he's the nominee he'll do as well as Hillary

[JDPriestly]

32. The first debate will probably wake up a lot of people.

Bernie's stance on Social Security is very strong. That will attract more votes from older people.

Hillary's is not as strong as Bernie's.

Hey! Hillary's was not as strong as Obama's. And as we have seen, Obama is not as strong on Social Security as he pretended to be.

Once in office, Obama lowered Social Security tax income rather than raising the cap. He gave a vacation to people on part of their Social Security or payroll taxes.

We still have not raised the cap on Social Security taxes. It's kind of disgusting.

[Fawke Em]

47. But, unlike Romney, we can see visual proof he's connecting.

Romney didn't have 20,000+ people showing up to see him everywhere he went.

Hell, even in the South, Bernie's drawing crowds of 6,000-10,000. Greenboro, NC is hardly the bastion of liberalism, so you can't even use the meme that he's drawing big crowds in liberal cities.

I just don't think the polling has quite caught up with that connection.

But I do think it will.

[uponit7771]

51. The crowds I see establish my claim and so do the poll numbers, they're mostly homogenized ...

... and can afford to gamble on Sanders.

The people who can't afford to have a bat shit crazy GOP aren't going to gamble

[Fawke Em]

82. That's changing.

Maybe you missed the Boston rally.

[cheapdate]

97. Boston is one of a handful of strong progressive bastions,

along with Portland, Seattle, Milwaukee, and other parts of New England.

Not saying the Boston rally wasn't significant, but it's a long way from Boston to Detroit.

[Jim Lane]

54. Greensboro is a bastion of liberalism by North Carolina standards

It's in Guilford County. When I was in law school at UNC, one of my Republican friends used the term "the People's Republic of Guilford" to characterize its leftward political lean.

The reason the polling results are different is that polls don't measure enthusiasm. If we had a single nationwide primary next week, Clinton would certainly win. The people going to those Sanders rallies would be outnumbered by people who don't care enough to go to any rallies but who would vote for Clinton because she's a known, comfortable quantity; they're not too sure about that wild-haired socialist and they've never even heard of the three others.

The bad news for Sanders is that enthusiasm still won't count when voting begins. The good news for him is that, among all the people now telling the pollsters which candidate they favor, the average level of commitment is probably lowest among Clinton supporters than among all others. It's unlikely that very many people will switch to Clinton from another candidate. The question is how many will switch from her, because her still-imposing lead gives her a lot of room to absorb defections.

[Fawke Em]

83. My point is that it's not nearly as liberal as

the Northwest (or the Northeast).

Just because it's liberal by North Carolina standards doesn't mean that the average left-leaning politician would get the turnout Sanders did.

[Gothmog]

60. Read the analysis from Nate posted above

Sanders' appeal is limited to a narrow base of supporters and unless Sanders can expand his appeal to other groups in the Democratic coalition, Sanders will not be the nominee.

Sanders is not alone. Here are the most recent rankings from Predictwise http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

Hillary Clinton 69 %
Joe Biden 16 %
Bernie Sanders 12 %

Biden has a better chance of being the nominee compared to Sanders.

[artislife]

45. It's a year out and no debates

I wouldn't get too excited.

[Hulk]

29. Lots of young faces in that crowd....

Let's just hope they show up on election day, regardless of who the nominees are. Hopefully it will be Bernie; but if not, he will have brought his message to the hearts of the yearning to be empowered once again! Thank you Bernie. You've got my vote!

[beam me up scottie]

31. I'm from Vermont and I think I know Bernie well enough to say

that he will do everything he can to get his supporters to vote for the Dem nominee if it's not him.

He knows what's at stake.

Hell he just said: "When nobody votes, Republicans win!"

[Hulk]

34. Point well taken....

..and I have no doubt Bernie would do the right thing. But wouldn't it be something else if we can get him elected?...and kick about 100 corrupt congressmen and women OUT of the House and Senate??!!

[beam me up scottie]

37. That would indeed be something.

I cried the night Obama was elected and can only imagine what it would be like to hear the news that a Jewish socialist from Vermont will be the next president.

[Doctor_J]

88. I'll be voting for all of the democrats on my ballot

Except for Mrs Clinton

[Enthusiast]

33. Kicked and recommended!

[Uncle Joe]

36. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, MannyGoldstein.

[senz]

39. K&R. Needed to be said, Manny.

[SoapBox]

43. YUP!

You said a mouth full.

Silver has become one of many in the compfy Entrenched Establishment.

[zentrum]

48. Thanks, Manny.

[MFM008]

53. still just not feeling the Bern

just meh.

[Depaysement]

56. I see POC in the photo

I was told they don't support Sanders. Were they plants? Did you doctor the photo?

[randome]

85. They're all looking in the same direction, though. I say Photoshopped.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Precision and concision. That's the game.[/center][/font][hr]

[Scuba]

57. K and effing R

[leftofcool]

58. Yea, and I will raise you Hillary's 20 point lead plus super delegates.

[hrmjustin]

62. Damn 538 for stating political endorsement numbers! Damn them!

[randome]

63. Won't someone think of the children???

[hr][font color="blue"][center]All things in moderation, including moderation.[/center][/font][hr]

[hrmjustin]

65. They are just so upset.

I am just beside myself!

[Renew Deal]

69. You showed them!

[hrmjustin]

76. .

[ConservativeDemocrat]

70. Unskewing the polls, Manny?

Is this you?



- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community

[MannyGoldstein]

99. No, this is me:

But thanks, proud member.

[marym625]

71. K&R!

#FeelTheBern
#Bernie2016

[Freddie Stubbs]

77. Howard Dean drew thousands to rallies in 2004

How did that work out?

[workinclasszero]

90. Bernie should hire the unskew the polls guy

That told Rmoney he was goin to win the presidential election with all the huge rallies he had all over the country.

[questionseverything]

86. saw a democratic pollster make an interesting point today on msnbc

he said, (paraphrasing)" we usually say large crowds do not matter because candidates can use their money to import crowds on a bus but bernie has no money,he is not doing that"

////////////////////

in 08 hillary did have a paid bus load of supporters follow her so venues didn't look empty, i know because i had a family friend that was one of them.....i will have to check with him and see if he is on the road with hillary again


///////////////////

if the super-delegates take this from WE THE PEOPLE the democratic party will be ruined

[truedelphi]

96. The Democratic Party (AND "R" PArty too)

Are already ruined.

Only 34 to 36% of all Americans are willing to tell pollsters that they would loyally vote for anyone with a "D" after their names.

And only two thirds that number, about 24%, of all Americans are willing to totally always support the "R"s.

The largest voting block, around 40%, is comprised of those that realize we have been swindled. The party of FDR and JFK is now the party of The Man who works for Geithner, and who got to sit in the Oval Office for eight years in return for doing that favor.

There are many Republicans who started out believing in their party because - not of Ron Reagan - but of Eisenhower. They feel swindled too.

[OhZone]

98. People at rallies are not the only ones who vote!

Go Nate Silvers!

[Thespian2]

105. Right On!

BERNIE...the only answer...

[sabrina 1]

106. Manny you need to update. It was 33,000!

[sabrina 1]

107. Lol!