Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:11 PM Oct 2015

Uh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality

There are a fair number of people who like to post screenshots from Pollster, generally with a tagline like, "The trend continues." This had conveniently ignored 2+ months of polls showing a certain candidate plateaued around the mid 20s. Well, Pollster's moderate smoothing, which takes into account multi month historical averages well smoothing out more recent results, has finally caught up with the past few months of polling.

Now, the following is Pollster's default chart--no change in dates, smoothing, polling companies, etc--except with the individual poll dots turned off so you can see the trendline.



The information still lags a bit, as this shows the trend leveling off in September instead of August, but that is a function of Pollster's smoothing function.

The race has stabilized between Bernie And Clinton. And it is in the process of stabilizing with Biden's theoretical entry. Nice to finally have the second of the two major aggregating sites catch up to that fact.

59 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Uh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality (Original Post) Godhumor Oct 2015 OP
I don't think anyone cares ram2008 Oct 2015 #1
Second that jkbRN Oct 2015 #3
third that. we're about to enter a new phase. nt magical thyme Oct 2015 #4
I don't think anyone cares DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #6
I'm sure we'll find out ram2008 Oct 2015 #7
Yes, we will find out. We have someone who has had several dozen national debates stevenleser Oct 2015 #14
It's called passion... ram2008 Oct 2015 #16
It's not passion. Its arrogance and impatience and he is known to have that personality. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #17
The people seem to like his personality ram2008 Oct 2015 #18
The people rarely see it. We saw a little of it with his interaction with BLM. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #19
People usually don't react well when others interrupt them and yell in their face... ram2008 Oct 2015 #20
You're supposed to react well if you expect to be at the national level. It's not about you. stevenleser Oct 2015 #21
I think he's been pretty consistent on the issues ram2008 Oct 2015 #23
Nice try at changing the subject. His personality will become clear during the six debates. stevenleser Oct 2015 #25
His personality is already evident Armstead Oct 2015 #46
You act like you've never seen the way Hillary acts. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #56
And what did we see when Clinton talked over a Latino protestor? jeff47 Oct 2015 #52
Oh, good grief. Hissyspit Oct 2015 #26
If this bothers you, tell it to Bernie. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #29
Silly season. nt Hissyspit Oct 2015 #30
Yes, of course! Because no one has ever mentioned the idea of being Presidential before for stevenleser Oct 2015 #33
irritable, impatient and cranky frylock Oct 2015 #27
There it is again..... bkkyosemite Oct 2015 #31
Yep. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #32
So you support the Rovian candidate, eh? The liar? I quote you below (emphasis mine) Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #35
We now have a lot more to go on regarding Hillary, don't we? We have six years of SecState stevenleser Oct 2015 #38
Do you repudiate your own reporting that Hillary lied about NAFTA? Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #39
LOL, if you are going to throw that kind of drama, give me time to pull out my violin. stevenleser Oct 2015 #40
That was a try. Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #41
So, what changed your mind about Hillary? Bernie as we now, and the public is finding out daily, sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #58
Lol! sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #57
What Bernie does not have time for a flip-flopping bullshit artist of a hack that calls himself.. Time_Lord Oct 2015 #59
Thats true workinclasszero Oct 2015 #9
Not likely since the more face time she gives the public, the less they like her. closeupready Oct 2015 #11
and then you can drink the lovely, lovely salt tears of the Sanders supporters! ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #15
This message was self-deleted by its author DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #43
Then you woke up! DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #44
woke up to what? ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #47
enjoy those salty tears DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #48
that reminds me ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #49
My gf bought me that iconic photo framed DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #50
Why does everyone assume the debates will make a significant difference? hack89 Oct 2015 #10
No kidding. zappaman Oct 2015 #37
There has actually been a lot of research... DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #51
That same research shows primary debates have an effect jeff47 Oct 2015 #53
Yep. Iliyah Oct 2015 #2
An overlooked tidbit - 20% of voters made up their minds since Jan, and Hillary got ZERO of them. reformist2 Oct 2015 #5
Bernie had peaked and Hillary is in the lead upaloopa Oct 2015 #54
Take Biden off the poll.... BooScout Oct 2015 #8
...or perhaps they go DOWN. Who knows? Buns_of_Fire Oct 2015 #12
Agree that he shouldn't be included, but there are mountains of data that his support goes back to C Godhumor Oct 2015 #13
They go up. We know. Because the polling agencies ask the question. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #34
no Rosa Luxemburg Oct 2015 #42
Hang on to that tbought while you still can. 99Forever Oct 2015 #22
Well Aerows Oct 2015 #24
Good, Hill will have a ton of confidence going into the debates. oasis Oct 2015 #28
Not sure any national polling correlates with "reality" kenn3d Oct 2015 #36
Here's another view with shorter date range clearly showing Bernie leveling off. DCBob Oct 2015 #45
Predictions are so hard though, especially about the future. kenn3d Oct 2015 #55

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
6. I don't think anyone cares
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:28 PM
Oct 2015

In 5 more days, after the debates, those lines will move again, further in favor of Hillary Clinton.



ram2008

(1,238 posts)
7. I'm sure we'll find out
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:33 PM
Oct 2015

It will be hard for Hillary to defend her flip-flip wait and see approach to every issue; I don't expect Bernie to point this out, but I expect O'Malley to come out swinging.

Either way, the polls will only be stable for the next few days.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
14. Yes, we will find out. We have someone who has had several dozen national debates
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:36 PM
Oct 2015

Against Barack Obama and who has a Presidential demeanor, vs someone who has never been on that kind of a national stage and who is known to be irritable, impatient and cranky.

ram2008

(1,238 posts)
16. It's called passion...
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:22 PM
Oct 2015

Something Hillary doesn't have.

"Irritable, impatient and cranky" signifies authenticity and a passion for not putting up with what you call "Presidential demeanor" aka double speak, calculated, poll tested sound bites.

ram2008

(1,238 posts)
20. People usually don't react well when others interrupt them and yell in their face...
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:33 PM
Oct 2015

All while not letting the person address their concerns...

At least Bernie showed up.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
21. You're supposed to react well if you expect to be at the national level. It's not about you.
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:35 PM
Oct 2015

It's about the issues. Bernie can't seem to get there.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
25. Nice try at changing the subject. His personality will become clear during the six debates.
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:46 PM
Oct 2015

And he is not Presidential.

 

Armstead

(47,803 posts)
46. His personality is already evident
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 07:43 PM
Oct 2015

He's ornery, stubborn, passionate, cantankerous, combative, committed and focused.

And a lot of people love him for it. Including the people of Vermont who know him best and just keep electing, and re-electing, and re-electing him in a small state where there are two degrees of separation.

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
56. You act like you've never seen the way Hillary acts.
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:56 AM
Oct 2015

Talk about someone cranky. There's another word I'd use for her, but it would be offensive to my dog.

And that cackle she calls a laugh. Ugh.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
33. Yes, of course! Because no one has ever mentioned the idea of being Presidential before for
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:57 PM
Oct 2015

Presidential candidates.

It's a unique concept that I made up because I'm so creative.

Luminous Animal

(27,310 posts)
35. So you support the Rovian candidate, eh? The liar? I quote you below (emphasis mine)
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:27 PM
Oct 2015
Hillary Clinton's Released White House Records show she Lied about Opposing NAFTA

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_080320_hillary_clinton_s_re.htm

In fact, the documents released today show a meeting that Hillary chaired at the White House on November 10, 1993 where she promoted the passage of NAFTA to 120 people. Reports are coming out in every news agency pointing out the contradictions between her stated positions since announcing her bid for the Presidency and everything before that.

One of the things you would expect of someone who really has good experience and judgment is that they can articulate a basic set of principles and positions on issues that they can run on and defend and that stay relatively static. I'm not saying you have to stick to them in the face of overwhelming evidence that one of your positions has been proven to be wrong, like George W. Bush does, even someone who has good experience and judgment occasionally changes their mind. That is not what we have with Hillary. Hillary gives a different opinion on the same subjects every couple of weeks depending on her audience and what she thinks it will net her. As evidence of this is now coming out and is going to be presented to the American people in the starkest terms, how can one be expected to trust her to do anything that she says she is going to do? How can one really know what she believes or intends to do about anything? The only things Hillary's experience seems to be good for is perfecting how to talk out of both sides of her mouth, engaging in the politics of personal destruction and other aspects of her ruthless pursuit of power that remind one of what a Karl Rove might do. That kind of person ought not to be the Democratic nominee.
 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
38. We now have a lot more to go on regarding Hillary, don't we? We have six years of SecState
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:42 PM
Oct 2015

performance, historically the second most powerful position in the country.

My opinion on her has been greatly influenced by her successful performance and loyal service to President Obama.

Thank you for allowing me to express why my opinion has changed.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
40. LOL, if you are going to throw that kind of drama, give me time to pull out my violin.
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:50 PM
Oct 2015

Do you repudiate! Do you deny!

Bwahahahahahaahah!

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
58. So, what changed your mind about Hillary? Bernie as we now, and the public is finding out daily,
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:48 PM
Oct 2015

has been consistent on the major issues. Something so rare in politics that the people had given up on politics, 60% or more not voting in the last mid terms eg.

Now that they have found a candidate who doesn't change his mind, this is hugely improtant to voters, as his name recognition grows, so does support for his campaign.

So how does someone go from viewing a candidate as dishonest to supporting them and slamming the candidate everyone agrees is honest?

 

Time_Lord

(60 posts)
59. What Bernie does not have time for a flip-flopping bullshit artist of a hack that calls himself..
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:52 PM
Oct 2015

a "journalist"

That thread I read this morning was an eye opener.

Good luck finding a gig now.

 

closeupready

(29,503 posts)
11. Not likely since the more face time she gives the public, the less they like her.
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:16 PM
Oct 2015

Historically, I mean. But we'll see.

Response to ish of the hammer (Reply #15)

ish of the hammer

(444 posts)
47. woke up to what?
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 10:00 PM
Oct 2015

that Clinton is a corporatist?
that as long as it doesn't pinch the wallets of the wealthy, Clinton is all for the cause de jure?
that climate change will kill your children?
that 8 years of a democratic president has left us with wars in Libya (thank Hillary), Syria (Hillary's no-fly zone idea) and Ukraine?
that your children have to sell themselves into indentured servitude to get a higher education (but Hillary will means-test a help)?

enjoy those salty tears.

"Hillary: Making sure women get a bigger piece of the middle-class pie that her neoliberal, DLC, pro-Wall Street, pro-Pentagon, pro-TPP, Republican-lite economic policies are designed to shrink.

by expatjourno"

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
48. enjoy those salty tears
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 10:07 PM
Oct 2015
enjoy those salty tears.

-ish of the hammer


You like apples?


Your guy will be the guy in the gray trunks:




How do you like them apples?


Try to throw more shade on DemocratSinceBirth. There is a lot more than that.

#lol@me


P.S. If anybody is concerned, Manny Pacquiao did get up, about two minutes later.

ish of the hammer

(444 posts)
49. that reminds me
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 10:51 PM
Oct 2015

I was stationed in Loring AFB in Maine, when Cassius Clay beat Sonny Liston in the first round in Lewiston.
over in 30 seconds! (as I recall)

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
50. My gf bought me that iconic photo framed
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 10:57 PM
Oct 2015



Barack Obama also had in it in his office when he was an Illinois legislator.


My mom, god bless her, met Muhammad Ali in 1986 and told him "my son loves you". He signed his name on the back of an envelope my mom had at the time. I had the autograph put in the frame with the photo.



hack89

(39,171 posts)
10. Why does everyone assume the debates will make a significant difference?
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:03 PM
Oct 2015

in 2008 the largest viewing audience for a presidential debate was 29%. Take out the partisans who have already made a choice and that does not leave many undecided voters.

zappaman

(20,606 posts)
37. No kidding.
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:32 PM
Oct 2015

Especially because we don't have a trainwreck like the Republican party does, not many watch.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)
51. There has actually been a lot of research...
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 11:03 PM
Oct 2015

And the research suggests most partisans think their candidate won and in the event they don't think their candidate won they will say it doesn't matter.

Kerry wiped the floor with Bush and still lost.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
53. That same research shows primary debates have an effect
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 11:12 PM
Oct 2015

while general election debates do not have much effect.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
5. An overlooked tidbit - 20% of voters made up their minds since Jan, and Hillary got ZERO of them.
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:26 PM
Oct 2015

In January, it was 60% Hillary, 10% Biden, 30% undecided.

Now it's 45% Hillary, 25% Bernie, 20% Biden, and only 10% undecided.

It really is safe to say that in the 10 months that have gone by, Hillary has effectively won over ZERO primary voters. Everyone making up their mind between then and now went to Bernie or Biden. All her supporters are lifers - and even then, she lost a quarter of them in the past few months alone.

That too, is another astounding tidbit.

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
54. Bernie had peaked and Hillary is in the lead
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:16 AM
Oct 2015

When Biden announced he isn't running, 20 points go to Hillary and she leads Bernie 60 to 25
Mark it

BooScout

(10,406 posts)
8. Take Biden off the poll....
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:45 PM
Oct 2015

...and Hillary's numbers go way up. It's time they stop artificially tweaking the numbers by including Biden.

Buns_of_Fire

(17,233 posts)
12. ...or perhaps they go DOWN. Who knows?
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:27 PM
Oct 2015

Either way, I don't pay much attention to any poll that includes Biden -- for the simple reason that he's NOT a candidate!

Oh, sure, he can bat his eyelashes at us, and coyly say "Maybe I will, and maybe I won't", but until and unless he chooses to defecate or vacate the latrine, he has no business on ANY presidential poll. Let his support distribute itself as it will.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
13. Agree that he shouldn't be included, but there are mountains of data that his support goes back to C
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:36 PM
Oct 2015

Generally by a factor of 70%. Biden leaches primarily from her. Sanders' supporters are a much smaller group but they don't waiver (Which is why Sanders plateaued but didn't drop.)

99Forever

(14,524 posts)
22. Hang on to that tbought while you still can.
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:38 PM
Oct 2015

I seez a big ol sadz coming your way in just short of a week.

kenn3d

(486 posts)
36. Not sure any national polling correlates with "reality"
Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:30 PM
Oct 2015

But I'll still offer my perspective...

Let's just consider the net trend over the last 2 months (as referred to above), defined by just the 4 data points for the 2 candidates starting at Aug 8 and ending today at Oct 8. You know, just eliminating those laggy smoothed curve lines altogether.
The following data is taken from the very exact same chart shown in the OP. No curves, no lags, no smoothing at all.
8/8 Clinton 52.0 Sanders 19.7
10/8 Clinton 43.6 Sanders 25.4
delta Clinton -8.4 Sanders +5.7
Net spread delta = Sanders +14.1 over 60 days.


Friends, this honestly doesn't reflect either a plateau or any significant change in the trends for either of these candidates since May... imo.
And btw, the latest rolly poll from Reuters which got added in this afternoon shows a negligible additional change of Clinton -2 / Sanders +2 since last week. But it doesn't really affect the chart or the spread, and based mainly on Godhumor's sound advice, I'm inclined to ignore that poll anyway.

Anything can happen.... GOTV!

kenn3d

(486 posts)
55. Predictions are so hard though, especially about the future.
Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:42 AM
Oct 2015

Try to granulize this:

The graph above is the standard HuffPost Model (not customized) but with the date range set to 30 days (9/8-10/8).
It gets kinda hard to spot the surges in this view but it sure seems like everybody's sorta leveled off... I guess we're ALL berned out huh?
So even though you can't tell shitfromshinola to look at a "trend" graph over such a short time range, and because ALL the data points across this range have a greater MoE than any perceptable plotted slopes over the period... Here's the actual data:
Sept 8 Clinton 45.8 Sanders 24.4
Oct 8 Clinton 43.9 Sanders 24.8
Clinton still falling -1.9%
Sanders still rising +.4%
(or maybe that's a plateau, but it sure beats STILL FALLING)
Net spread delta = Sanders +2.3% over 30 days.

OOOHHHHH NOES!!!! SOOOOO CLOSE!!!!

Sanders' net rise rate has slowed to only 2.3%/mo. Actual spread is roughly 17%. Only 5 months left until Super Tuesday! (2.3*5=11.5%) So assuming that Bernie's surge is really over and he doesn't rise any faster ... And assuming that Hillary can hang on to her tattered parachute and doesn't fall any faster... or Bill doesn't step on his tongue (or any of about a million other scenarios don't happen)...
CLINTON WINS BY A 5.5% LANDSLIDE!!!!! (+/- 5.4% MoE)
That's it, game over.

Sure hope she can beat Trump!


jk friends

I predict: Anything can happen... (and probably will).

Kick in to the DU tip jar?

This week we're running a special pop-up mini fund drive. From Monday through Friday we're going ad-free for all registered members, and we're asking you to kick in to the DU tip jar to support the site and keep us financially healthy.

As a bonus, making a contribution will allow you to leave kudos for another DU member, and at the end of the week we'll recognize the DUers who you think make this community great.

Tell me more...

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Uh oh, the Pollster.com t...