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Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:11 PM

Uh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality

There are a fair number of people who like to post screenshots from Pollster, generally with a tagline like, "The trend continues." This had conveniently ignored 2+ months of polls showing a certain candidate plateaued around the mid 20s. Well, Pollster's moderate smoothing, which takes into account multi month historical averages well smoothing out more recent results, has finally caught up with the past few months of polling.

Now, the following is Pollster's default chart--no change in dates, smoothing, polling companies, etc--except with the individual poll dots turned off so you can see the trendline.



The information still lags a bit, as this shows the trend leveling off in September instead of August, but that is a function of Pollster's smoothing function.

The race has stabilized between Bernie And Clinton. And it is in the process of stabilizing with Biden's theoretical entry. Nice to finally have the second of the two major aggregating sites catch up to that fact.

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Reply Uh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality (Original post)
Godhumor Oct 2015 OP
ram2008 Oct 2015 #1
jkbRN Oct 2015 #3
magical thyme Oct 2015 #4
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #6
ram2008 Oct 2015 #7
stevenleser Oct 2015 #14
ram2008 Oct 2015 #16
stevenleser Oct 2015 #17
ram2008 Oct 2015 #18
stevenleser Oct 2015 #19
ram2008 Oct 2015 #20
stevenleser Oct 2015 #21
ram2008 Oct 2015 #23
stevenleser Oct 2015 #25
Armstead Oct 2015 #46
Fawke Em Oct 2015 #56
jeff47 Oct 2015 #52
Hissyspit Oct 2015 #26
stevenleser Oct 2015 #29
Hissyspit Oct 2015 #30
stevenleser Oct 2015 #33
frylock Oct 2015 #27
bkkyosemite Oct 2015 #31
stevenleser Oct 2015 #32
Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #35
stevenleser Oct 2015 #38
Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #39
stevenleser Oct 2015 #40
Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #41
sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #58
sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #57
Time_Lord Oct 2015 #59
workinclasszero Oct 2015 #9
closeupready Oct 2015 #11
ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #15
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #43
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #44
ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #47
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #48
ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #49
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #50
hack89 Oct 2015 #10
zappaman Oct 2015 #37
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #51
jeff47 Oct 2015 #53
Iliyah Oct 2015 #2
reformist2 Oct 2015 #5
upaloopa Oct 2015 #54
BooScout Oct 2015 #8
Buns_of_Fire Oct 2015 #12
Godhumor Oct 2015 #13
stevenleser Oct 2015 #34
Rosa Luxemburg Oct 2015 #42
99Forever Oct 2015 #22
Aerows Oct 2015 #24
oasis Oct 2015 #28
kenn3d Oct 2015 #36
DCBob Oct 2015 #45
kenn3d Oct 2015 #55

Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:18 PM

1. I don't think anyone cares

In 5 more days, after the debates, those lines will move again.

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Response to ram2008 (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:20 PM

3. Second that

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Response to ram2008 (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:24 PM

4. third that. we're about to enter a new phase. nt

 

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Response to ram2008 (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:28 PM

6. I don't think anyone cares

In 5 more days, after the debates, those lines will move again, further in favor of Hillary Clinton.



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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:33 PM

7. I'm sure we'll find out

It will be hard for Hillary to defend her flip-flip wait and see approach to every issue; I don't expect Bernie to point this out, but I expect O'Malley to come out swinging.

Either way, the polls will only be stable for the next few days.

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Response to ram2008 (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:36 PM

14. Yes, we will find out. We have someone who has had several dozen national debates

 

Against Barack Obama and who has a Presidential demeanor, vs someone who has never been on that kind of a national stage and who is known to be irritable, impatient and cranky.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:22 PM

16. It's called passion...

Something Hillary doesn't have.

"Irritable, impatient and cranky" signifies authenticity and a passion for not putting up with what you call "Presidential demeanor" aka double speak, calculated, poll tested sound bites.

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Response to ram2008 (Reply #16)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:27 PM

17. It's not passion. Its arrogance and impatience and he is known to have that personality. nt

 

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:28 PM

18. The people seem to like his personality

Guess we'll see how the debates play out.

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Response to ram2008 (Reply #18)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:31 PM

19. The people rarely see it. We saw a little of it with his interaction with BLM. nt

 


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Response to stevenleser (Reply #19)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:33 PM

20. People usually don't react well when others interrupt them and yell in their face...

All while not letting the person address their concerns...

At least Bernie showed up.

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Response to ram2008 (Reply #20)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:35 PM

21. You're supposed to react well if you expect to be at the national level. It's not about you.

 

It's about the issues. Bernie can't seem to get there.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #21)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:43 PM

23. I think he's been pretty consistent on the issues

Unlike some other people.

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Response to ram2008 (Reply #23)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:46 PM

25. Nice try at changing the subject. His personality will become clear during the six debates.

 

And he is not Presidential.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #25)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 07:43 PM

46. His personality is already evident

 

He's ornery, stubborn, passionate, cantankerous, combative, committed and focused.

And a lot of people love him for it. Including the people of Vermont who know him best and just keep electing, and re-electing, and re-electing him in a small state where there are two degrees of separation.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #25)

Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:56 AM

56. You act like you've never seen the way Hillary acts.

Talk about someone cranky. There's another word I'd use for her, but it would be offensive to my dog.

And that cackle she calls a laugh. Ugh.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #19)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 11:10 PM

52. And what did we see when Clinton talked over a Latino protestor?

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:48 PM

26. Oh, good grief.

Really?

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Response to Hissyspit (Reply #26)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:50 PM

29. If this bothers you, tell it to Bernie. nt

 

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #29)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:51 PM

30. Silly season. nt

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Response to Hissyspit (Reply #30)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:57 PM

33. Yes, of course! Because no one has ever mentioned the idea of being Presidential before for

 

Presidential candidates.

It's a unique concept that I made up because I'm so creative.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:50 PM

27. irritable, impatient and cranky

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:53 PM

31. There it is again.....

Bernie is a failure

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #31)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:56 PM

32. Yep. nt

 

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:27 PM

35. So you support the Rovian candidate, eh? The liar? I quote you below (emphasis mine)

Hillary Clinton's Released White House Records show she Lied about Opposing NAFTA

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_080320_hillary_clinton_s_re.htm

In fact, the documents released today show a meeting that Hillary chaired at the White House on November 10, 1993 where she promoted the passage of NAFTA to 120 people. Reports are coming out in every news agency pointing out the contradictions between her stated positions since announcing her bid for the Presidency and everything before that.

One of the things you would expect of someone who really has good experience and judgment is that they can articulate a basic set of principles and positions on issues that they can run on and defend and that stay relatively static. I'm not saying you have to stick to them in the face of overwhelming evidence that one of your positions has been proven to be wrong, like George W. Bush does, even someone who has good experience and judgment occasionally changes their mind. That is not what we have with Hillary. Hillary gives a different opinion on the same subjects every couple of weeks depending on her audience and what she thinks it will net her. As evidence of this is now coming out and is going to be presented to the American people in the starkest terms, how can one be expected to trust her to do anything that she says she is going to do? How can one really know what she believes or intends to do about anything? The only things Hillary's experience seems to be good for is perfecting how to talk out of both sides of her mouth, engaging in the politics of personal destruction and other aspects of her ruthless pursuit of power that remind one of what a Karl Rove might do. That kind of person ought not to be the Democratic nominee.

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Response to Luminous Animal (Reply #35)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:42 PM

38. We now have a lot more to go on regarding Hillary, don't we? We have six years of SecState

 

performance, historically the second most powerful position in the country.

My opinion on her has been greatly influenced by her successful performance and loyal service to President Obama.

Thank you for allowing me to express why my opinion has changed.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #38)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:45 PM

39. Do you repudiate your own reporting that Hillary lied about NAFTA?

Did you lie in your reporting?

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Response to Luminous Animal (Reply #39)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:50 PM

40. LOL, if you are going to throw that kind of drama, give me time to pull out my violin.

 

Do you repudiate! Do you deny!

Bwahahahahahaahah!

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #40)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 05:01 PM

41. That was a try.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #40)

Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:48 PM

58. So, what changed your mind about Hillary? Bernie as we now, and the public is finding out daily,

has been consistent on the major issues. Something so rare in politics that the people had given up on politics, 60% or more not voting in the last mid terms eg.

Now that they have found a candidate who doesn't change his mind, this is hugely improtant to voters, as his name recognition grows, so does support for his campaign.

So how does someone go from viewing a candidate as dishonest to supporting them and slamming the candidate everyone agrees is honest?

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #14)

Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:44 PM

57. Lol!

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #14)

Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:52 PM

59. What Bernie does not have time for a flip-flopping bullshit artist of a hack that calls himself..

 

a "journalist"

That thread I read this morning was an eye opener.

Good luck finding a gig now.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:50 PM

9. Thats true

 

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:16 PM

11. Not likely since the more face time she gives the public, the less they like her.

 

Historically, I mean. But we'll see.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:55 PM

15. and then you can drink the lovely, lovely salt tears of the Sanders supporters!

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Response to ish of the hammer (Reply #15)


Response to ish of the hammer (Reply #15)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 07:27 PM

44. Then you woke up!

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #44)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 10:00 PM

47. woke up to what?

that Clinton is a corporatist?
that as long as it doesn't pinch the wallets of the wealthy, Clinton is all for the cause de jure?
that climate change will kill your children?
that 8 years of a democratic president has left us with wars in Libya (thank Hillary), Syria (Hillary's no-fly zone idea) and Ukraine?
that your children have to sell themselves into indentured servitude to get a higher education (but Hillary will means-test a help)?

enjoy those salty tears.

"Hillary: Making sure women get a bigger piece of the middle-class pie that her neoliberal, DLC, pro-Wall Street, pro-Pentagon, pro-TPP, Republican-lite economic policies are designed to shrink.

by expatjourno"

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Response to ish of the hammer (Reply #47)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 10:07 PM

48. enjoy those salty tears

enjoy those salty tears.

-ish of the hammer


You like apples?


Your guy will be the guy in the gray trunks:




How do you like them apples?


Try to throw more shade on DemocratSinceBirth. There is a lot more than that.

#lol@me


P.S. If anybody is concerned, Manny Pacquiao did get up, about two minutes later.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #48)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 10:51 PM

49. that reminds me

I was stationed in Loring AFB in Maine, when Cassius Clay beat Sonny Liston in the first round in Lewiston.
over in 30 seconds! (as I recall)

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Response to ish of the hammer (Reply #49)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 10:57 PM

50. My gf bought me that iconic photo framed




Barack Obama also had in it in his office when he was an Illinois legislator.


My mom, god bless her, met Muhammad Ali in 1986 and told him "my son loves you". He signed his name on the back of an envelope my mom had at the time. I had the autograph put in the frame with the photo.



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Response to ram2008 (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:03 PM

10. Why does everyone assume the debates will make a significant difference?

in 2008 the largest viewing audience for a presidential debate was 29%. Take out the partisans who have already made a choice and that does not leave many undecided voters.

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Response to hack89 (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:32 PM

37. No kidding.

Especially because we don't have a trainwreck like the Republican party does, not many watch.

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Response to zappaman (Reply #37)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 11:03 PM

51. There has actually been a lot of research...

And the research suggests most partisans think their candidate won and in the event they don't think their candidate won they will say it doesn't matter.

Kerry wiped the floor with Bush and still lost.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #51)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 11:12 PM

53. That same research shows primary debates have an effect

while general election debates do not have much effect.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:19 PM

2. Yep.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:26 PM

5. An overlooked tidbit - 20% of voters made up their minds since Jan, and Hillary got ZERO of them.

In January, it was 60% Hillary, 10% Biden, 30% undecided.

Now it's 45% Hillary, 25% Bernie, 20% Biden, and only 10% undecided.

It really is safe to say that in the 10 months that have gone by, Hillary has effectively won over ZERO primary voters. Everyone making up their mind between then and now went to Bernie or Biden. All her supporters are lifers - and even then, she lost a quarter of them in the past few months alone.

That too, is another astounding tidbit.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:16 AM

54. Bernie had peaked and Hillary is in the lead

When Biden announced he isn't running, 20 points go to Hillary and she leads Bernie 60 to 25
Mark it

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 01:45 PM

8. Take Biden off the poll....

...and Hillary's numbers go way up. It's time they stop artificially tweaking the numbers by including Biden.

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Response to BooScout (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:27 PM

12. ...or perhaps they go DOWN. Who knows?

Either way, I don't pay much attention to any poll that includes Biden -- for the simple reason that he's NOT a candidate!

Oh, sure, he can bat his eyelashes at us, and coyly say "Maybe I will, and maybe I won't", but until and unless he chooses to defecate or vacate the latrine, he has no business on ANY presidential poll. Let his support distribute itself as it will.

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Response to Buns_of_Fire (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 02:36 PM

13. Agree that he shouldn't be included, but there are mountains of data that his support goes back to C

Generally by a factor of 70%. Biden leaches primarily from her. Sanders' supporters are a much smaller group but they don't waiver (Which is why Sanders plateaued but didn't drop.)

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Response to Buns_of_Fire (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:01 PM

34. They go up. We know. Because the polling agencies ask the question. nt

 

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Response to BooScout (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 05:08 PM

42. no

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:38 PM

22. Hang on to that tbought while you still can.

I seez a big ol sadz coming your way in just short of a week.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:44 PM

24. Well

 

you are free to count your chickens before they hatch. I won't stand in your way.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 03:50 PM

28. Good, Hill will have a ton of confidence going into the debates.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:30 PM

36. Not sure any national polling correlates with "reality"

But I'll still offer my perspective...

Let's just consider the net trend over the last 2 months (as referred to above), defined by just the 4 data points for the 2 candidates starting at Aug 8 and ending today at Oct 8. You know, just eliminating those laggy smoothed curve lines altogether.
The following data is taken from the very exact same chart shown in the OP. No curves, no lags, no smoothing at all.
8/8 Clinton 52.0 Sanders 19.7
10/8 Clinton 43.6 Sanders 25.4
delta Clinton -8.4 Sanders +5.7
Net spread delta = Sanders +14.1 over 60 days.


Friends, this honestly doesn't reflect either a plateau or any significant change in the trends for either of these candidates since May... imo.
And btw, the latest rolly poll from Reuters which got added in this afternoon shows a negligible additional change of Clinton -2 / Sanders +2 since last week. But it doesn't really affect the chart or the spread, and based mainly on Godhumor's sound advice, I'm inclined to ignore that poll anyway.

Anything can happen.... GOTV!

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 07:36 PM

45. Here's another view with shorter date range clearly showing Bernie leveling off.

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Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Fri Oct 9, 2015, 12:42 AM

55. Predictions are so hard though, especially about the future.

Try to granulize this:

The graph above is the standard HuffPost Model (not customized) but with the date range set to 30 days (9/8-10/8).
It gets kinda hard to spot the surges in this view but it sure seems like everybody's sorta leveled off... I guess we're ALL berned out huh?
So even though you can't tell shitfromshinola to look at a "trend" graph over such a short time range, and because ALL the data points across this range have a greater MoE than any perceptable plotted slopes over the period... Here's the actual data:
Sept 8 Clinton 45.8 Sanders 24.4
Oct 8 Clinton 43.9 Sanders 24.8
Clinton still falling -1.9%
Sanders still rising +.4%
(or maybe that's a plateau, but it sure beats STILL FALLING)
Net spread delta = Sanders +2.3% over 30 days.

OOOHHHHH NOES!!!! SOOOOO CLOSE!!!!

Sanders' net rise rate has slowed to only 2.3%/mo. Actual spread is roughly 17%. Only 5 months left until Super Tuesday! (2.3*5=11.5%) So assuming that Bernie's surge is really over and he doesn't rise any faster ... And assuming that Hillary can hang on to her tattered parachute and doesn't fall any faster... or Bill doesn't step on his tongue (or any of about a million other scenarios don't happen)...
CLINTON WINS BY A 5.5% LANDSLIDE!!!!! (+/- 5.4% MoE)
That's it, game over.

Sure hope she can beat Trump!


jk friends

I predict: Anything can happen... (and probably will).

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