2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumUh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality
There are a fair number of people who like to post screenshots from Pollster, generally with a tagline like, "The trend continues." This had conveniently ignored 2+ months of polls showing a certain candidate plateaued around the mid 20s. Well, Pollster's moderate smoothing, which takes into account multi month historical averages well smoothing out more recent results, has finally caught up with the past few months of polling.
Now, the following is Pollster's default chart--no change in dates, smoothing, polling companies, etc--except with the individual poll dots turned off so you can see the trendline.
The information still lags a bit, as this shows the trend leveling off in September instead of August, but that is a function of Pollster's smoothing function.
The race has stabilized between Bernie And Clinton. And it is in the process of stabilizing with Biden's theoretical entry. Nice to finally have the second of the two major aggregating sites catch up to that fact.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)In 5 more days, after the debates, those lines will move again.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,702 posts)In 5 more days, after the debates, those lines will move again, further in favor of Hillary Clinton.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)It will be hard for Hillary to defend her flip-flip wait and see approach to every issue; I don't expect Bernie to point this out, but I expect O'Malley to come out swinging.
Either way, the polls will only be stable for the next few days.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Against Barack Obama and who has a Presidential demeanor, vs someone who has never been on that kind of a national stage and who is known to be irritable, impatient and cranky.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Something Hillary doesn't have.
"Irritable, impatient and cranky" signifies authenticity and a passion for not putting up with what you call "Presidential demeanor" aka double speak, calculated, poll tested sound bites.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)ram2008
(1,238 posts)Guess we'll see how the debates play out.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)ram2008
(1,238 posts)All while not letting the person address their concerns...
At least Bernie showed up.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)It's about the issues. Bernie can't seem to get there.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Unlike some other people.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)And he is not Presidential.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)He's ornery, stubborn, passionate, cantankerous, combative, committed and focused.
And a lot of people love him for it. Including the people of Vermont who know him best and just keep electing, and re-electing, and re-electing him in a small state where there are two degrees of separation.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Talk about someone cranky. There's another word I'd use for her, but it would be offensive to my dog.
And that cackle she calls a laugh. Ugh.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)Really?
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Presidential candidates.
It's a unique concept that I made up because I'm so creative.
frylock
(34,825 posts)bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Bernie is a failure
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_080320_hillary_clinton_s_re.htm
In fact, the documents released today show a meeting that Hillary chaired at the White House on November 10, 1993 where she promoted the passage of NAFTA to 120 people. Reports are coming out in every news agency pointing out the contradictions between her stated positions since announcing her bid for the Presidency and everything before that.
One of the things you would expect of someone who really has good experience and judgment is that they can articulate a basic set of principles and positions on issues that they can run on and defend and that stay relatively static. I'm not saying you have to stick to them in the face of overwhelming evidence that one of your positions has been proven to be wrong, like George W. Bush does, even someone who has good experience and judgment occasionally changes their mind. That is not what we have with Hillary. Hillary gives a different opinion on the same subjects every couple of weeks depending on her audience and what she thinks it will net her. As evidence of this is now coming out and is going to be presented to the American people in the starkest terms, how can one be expected to trust her to do anything that she says she is going to do? How can one really know what she believes or intends to do about anything? The only things Hillary's experience seems to be good for is perfecting how to talk out of both sides of her mouth, engaging in the politics of personal destruction and other aspects of her ruthless pursuit of power that remind one of what a Karl Rove might do. That kind of person ought not to be the Democratic nominee.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)performance, historically the second most powerful position in the country.
My opinion on her has been greatly influenced by her successful performance and loyal service to President Obama.
Thank you for allowing me to express why my opinion has changed.
Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)Did you lie in your reporting?
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Do you repudiate! Do you deny!
Bwahahahahahaahah!
Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)has been consistent on the major issues. Something so rare in politics that the people had given up on politics, 60% or more not voting in the last mid terms eg.
Now that they have found a candidate who doesn't change his mind, this is hugely improtant to voters, as his name recognition grows, so does support for his campaign.
So how does someone go from viewing a candidate as dishonest to supporting them and slamming the candidate everyone agrees is honest?
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)closeupready
(29,503 posts)Historically, I mean. But we'll see.
ish of the hammer
(444 posts)Response to ish of the hammer (Reply #15)
DemocratSinceBirth This message was self-deleted by its author.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,702 posts)ish of the hammer
(444 posts)that Clinton is a corporatist?
that as long as it doesn't pinch the wallets of the wealthy, Clinton is all for the cause de jure?
that climate change will kill your children?
that 8 years of a democratic president has left us with wars in Libya (thank Hillary), Syria (Hillary's no-fly zone idea) and Ukraine?
that your children have to sell themselves into indentured servitude to get a higher education (but Hillary will means-test a help)?
enjoy those salty tears.
"Hillary: Making sure women get a bigger piece of the middle-class pie that her neoliberal, DLC, pro-Wall Street, pro-Pentagon, pro-TPP, Republican-lite economic policies are designed to shrink.
by expatjourno"
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,702 posts)-ish of the hammer
You like apples?
Your guy will be the guy in the gray trunks:
How do you like them apples?
Try to throw more shade on DemocratSinceBirth. There is a lot more than that.
#lol@me
P.S. If anybody is concerned, Manny Pacquiao did get up, about two minutes later.
ish of the hammer
(444 posts)I was stationed in Loring AFB in Maine, when Cassius Clay beat Sonny Liston in the first round in Lewiston.
over in 30 seconds! (as I recall)
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,702 posts)Barack Obama also had in it in his office when he was an Illinois legislator.
My mom, god bless her, met Muhammad Ali in 1986 and told him "my son loves you". He signed his name on the back of an envelope my mom had at the time. I had the autograph put in the frame with the photo.
hack89
(39,171 posts)in 2008 the largest viewing audience for a presidential debate was 29%. Take out the partisans who have already made a choice and that does not leave many undecided voters.
zappaman
(20,605 posts)Especially because we don't have a trainwreck like the Republican party does, not many watch.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,702 posts)And the research suggests most partisans think their candidate won and in the event they don't think their candidate won they will say it doesn't matter.
Kerry wiped the floor with Bush and still lost.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)while general election debates do not have much effect.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)In January, it was 60% Hillary, 10% Biden, 30% undecided.
Now it's 45% Hillary, 25% Bernie, 20% Biden, and only 10% undecided.
It really is safe to say that in the 10 months that have gone by, Hillary has effectively won over ZERO primary voters. Everyone making up their mind between then and now went to Bernie or Biden. All her supporters are lifers - and even then, she lost a quarter of them in the past few months alone.
That too, is another astounding tidbit.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)When Biden announced he isn't running, 20 points go to Hillary and she leads Bernie 60 to 25
Mark it
BooScout
(10,406 posts)...and Hillary's numbers go way up. It's time they stop artificially tweaking the numbers by including Biden.
Buns_of_Fire
(17,091 posts)Either way, I don't pay much attention to any poll that includes Biden -- for the simple reason that he's NOT a candidate!
Oh, sure, he can bat his eyelashes at us, and coyly say "Maybe I will, and maybe I won't", but until and unless he chooses to defecate or vacate the latrine, he has no business on ANY presidential poll. Let his support distribute itself as it will.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Generally by a factor of 70%. Biden leaches primarily from her. Sanders' supporters are a much smaller group but they don't waiver (Which is why Sanders plateaued but didn't drop.)
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)99Forever
(14,524 posts)I seez a big ol sadz coming your way in just short of a week.
you are free to count your chickens before they hatch. I won't stand in your way.
oasis
(49,108 posts)kenn3d
(486 posts)But I'll still offer my perspective...
Let's just consider the net trend over the last 2 months (as referred to above), defined by just the 4 data points for the 2 candidates starting at Aug 8 and ending today at Oct 8. You know, just eliminating those laggy smoothed curve lines altogether.
The following data is taken from the very exact same chart shown in the OP. No curves, no lags, no smoothing at all.
8/8 Clinton 52.0 Sanders 19.7
10/8 Clinton 43.6 Sanders 25.4
delta Clinton -8.4 Sanders +5.7
Net spread delta = Sanders +14.1 over 60 days.
Friends, this honestly doesn't reflect either a plateau or any significant change in the trends for either of these candidates since May... imo.
And btw, the latest rolly poll from Reuters which got added in this afternoon shows a negligible additional change of Clinton -2 / Sanders +2 since last week. But it doesn't really affect the chart or the spread, and based mainly on Godhumor's sound advice, I'm inclined to ignore that poll anyway.
Anything can happen.... GOTV!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)kenn3d
(486 posts)Try to granulize this:
The graph above is the standard HuffPost Model (not customized) but with the date range set to 30 days (9/8-10/8).
It gets kinda hard to spot the surges in this view but it sure seems like everybody's sorta leveled off... I guess we're ALL berned out huh?
So even though you can't tell shitfromshinola to look at a "trend" graph over such a short time range, and because ALL the data points across this range have a greater MoE than any perceptable plotted slopes over the period... Here's the actual data:
Sept 8 Clinton 45.8 Sanders 24.4
Oct 8 Clinton 43.9 Sanders 24.8
Clinton still falling -1.9%
Sanders still rising +.4% (or maybe that's a plateau, but it sure beats STILL FALLING)
Net spread delta = Sanders +2.3% over 30 days.
OOOHHHHH NOES!!!! SOOOOO CLOSE!!!!
Sanders' net rise rate has slowed to only 2.3%/mo. Actual spread is roughly 17%. Only 5 months left until Super Tuesday! (2.3*5=11.5%) So assuming that Bernie's surge is really over and he doesn't rise any faster ... And assuming that Hillary can hang on to her tattered parachute and doesn't fall any faster... or Bill doesn't step on his tongue (or any of about a million other scenarios don't happen)...
CLINTON WINS BY A 5.5% LANDSLIDE!!!!! (+/- 5.4% MoE)
That's it, game over.
Sure hope she can beat Trump!
jk friends
I predict: Anything can happen... (and probably will).