First Post DNC Debate Poll Results (Gravis Marketing)

[Dem2]

Great news for both Bernie and Hillary. This poll is obviously more reliable than the online ones we've seen, most of which do not even require user validation by SMS or email.

The MOE was +/- 3.6, and the survey was conducted via telephone. All respondents identified as Democrats.

Post DNC Debate Poll Results
Who Do You Think Won?
Clinton 62%
Sanders 30%
O' Malley 9%
Chafee 2%
Webb 1%

...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/14/1432486/-First-Post-DNC-Debate-Poll-Results-Gravitas-Marketing

[HassleCat]

1. Better but still skewed

Polls conducted by telephone are known to have problems, particularly now, when many people are giving up telephones in favor of cell phones.

[LonePirate]

7. Most phone polls nowadays include cell phones and not just landlines

You should not assume cell phone users were excluded unless the pollster explicitly states they were.

[HassleCat]

9. Cell phones have this problem

Telephone polls are already skewed by the fact that some people have unlisted numbers. They're also skewed by the selection process, deciding who to call. Cell phones are worse because many people take their numbers with them when they move, so there's no way to know if the respondent is in Iowa or Alaska. When they cite the margin of error at 3.5 percent, I regard that skeptically, although the 60/30 tilt probably wipes out any skew. In other words, the poll is accurate enough to establish that Clinton "won" the debate, even if the real split is not 60/30.

[1StrongBlackMan]

41. See Post 39 ...

Telephone polls are already skewed by the fact that some people have unlisted numbers.

Telephone surveys do not draw from telephone listings.

[1StrongBlackMan]

39. Is a cell phone, not a telephone? ...

And from the internals, the survey simpled the demographic most likely to be cell phone only users.

[m-lekktor]

2. This poll was discussed extensively in a thread yesterday by DUer SteveLeser.

you mind find it an interesting read!


http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=682065

[marym625]

3. how is it more reliable?

Most of the people I know have left any connection with the DNC. Very many who associate with it now are Hillary supporters. How is it more reliable than random people watching and voicing their opinions online? If anything, it seems less reliable

[NorthCarolina]

13. Probably because it comes from the

establishment, the defacto voice-of-authority. Polling schmolling and hocus pocus focus groups do not trump what the establishment defines as truth. You will comply.

[marym625]

16. my bad!

I was tired. I forgot to fall in line. Thank you for the reminder!

[tammywammy]

17. Online polls like what you find on Facebook are self-selecting

Other than for entertainment, no one should put any value in online self-selecting polls. They're meaningless.

I will add that people should wait until more of the post-debate pills come out before crowing so and so won or lost.

[Fearless]

21. They tell you who people support.

All polls are meaningless.

[tammywammy]

35. That's not true at all.

Not all polls or surveys are meaningless. That's saying you don't understand statistics.

[Fearless]

37. That's false.

[tammywammy]

38. What's false?

[whatthehey]

47. They tell you who cares enough to clean cookies or set up bots to vote multiple times

Not exactly a problem with in person polling. Neither is out-of-country participation, and if screening is done worth a crap, people ineligible by age, citizenship or affiliation are much less of a problem than they are online.

[Fearless]

49. The CNN/Facebook poll required log in or logging of IP address. Sorry. No dice.

[WI_DEM]

4. Gravis is not my favorite pollster, but I agree

this is better than on-line polls where supporters are urged to go and vote for who they believe had won. I'll also wait and see what other post-debate polls show.

[bkkyosemite]

5. I do not believe those numbers at all

This is the reason at below link. Anyone looking at this list cannot believe that he is so much behind Hillary. Just not so.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/128062750

[Dem2]

11. That same poll shows Bernie only 8 points behind Hillary.

This doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

[Fearless]

22. I should note the very high number of college educated people in the poll... 90%??

And that Gravis was very very wrong on several polls in the past two years.

[Dem2]

26. College educated = 58%

"Some college" is meaningless, most "average" people I know have taken classes at one time or another, in polls they don't count as "college educated" since they never got a degree.

[Fearless]

27. Only approximately 60% of US citizens have had "some college" or higher... Not 90%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Educational_attainment_in_the_United_States

[Dem2]

30. The poll is Democrats only

Democrats tend to be more educated. http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2012/nov/05/larry-sabato/education-level-tied-voting-tendencies/

It's difficult to determine the exact numbers, even the Wikipedia page is confusing the way it divides into age groups.

[Le Taz Hot]

48. Which is Hillary's (only) base, not Bernie's

who is getting crossover votes so, of course, it's going to give Hillary an advantage.

[Nitram]

6. It is telling that some only believe poll results that confirm their own beliefs.

Shades of Karl Rove.

[leftofcool]

8. Gravis is at least scientific.

[FloridaBlues]

10. Wow 32 ahead good for Hillary campaign

[Fearless]

23. Except they have a history of being dead wrong.

[Fumesucker]

14. The most telling statistic in the poll

[Dem2]

15. Can you explain the significance? n/t

[Fumesucker]

19. One of the biggest applause line of the night was the debate panel getting smacked down

And yet 91% of the polled audience thought it was an acceptable performance on the part of the debate panel.

When one of the debaters has to step in to read the panel the riot act it's not an acceptable performance, I'm not sure I've ever even heard of such a thing before.

[Dem2]

25. I saw a different debate, apparently.

Seemed relatively tame and the panel was relatively well behaved in my view. I haven't seen much in the way of criticism of the panel - but perhaps I am just not looking in the right places? I suppose it doesn't matter, I am pretty sure you won't be changing your opinion.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

29. Audience was stacked for Hillary. n/t

[Dem2]

31. The audience certainly was stacked in favor of Democrats!

I would like to see a legitimate source that proves it was stacked in favor of a particular candidate because I heard both Hillary and Bernie get really big applause feedback from the crowd.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

34. Keep it real.

The audio told the whole story. Do you honestly think Little Debbie will play fair in this one exception when she has stacked the deck at every opportunity?

[Dem2]

42. She seemed to do pretty well to those of us who like both candidates

I was very pleased, both Hillary and Bernie did very well at the debate. As Bernie said, I do realize that this is not politically advantageous of me to note this, but I am a fan of no candidate and will give credit where credit is due.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

44. Every candidate except Annie Oakley disagrees.

O'Malley actually embarrassed her in front of 15 million people. And the audio clearly demonstrates the audience was stacked, imo.

[Fumesucker]

36. I'm not trying to convince you...

I don't think Bernie Sanders' unprecedented interjection would have been necessary at a well run debate, a League of Women Voters debate for instance.

The debate team scored on the panel and then shook hands over it to huge applause.

But it was a decently run debate....

[Admiral Loinpresser]

45. We desperately need the LOWV. n/t

[Dem2]

46. It was a decently run debate

in my view. I was neutral heading into the debate and was quite pleased after the debate, especially with Bernie and Hillary. I'll vote for either Bernie or Hillary, I haven't decided yet.

[99Forever]

18. "more reliable" my ass.

Our landline exists necause DSL is our only affordable option. That phone hasn't been answered years. Hell, most people I know haven't even had a landline for a decade or longer. Reliably WRONG is more like it.

[Dem2]

20. They also call cellphones. Also, check out the demographics of the poll.

Last edited Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:53 PM - Edit history (1)

You'd accept this data if the numbers showed what you wanted to see.

Edit: it seems they only use land lines. Still, if you look at the demographics, they did get that right.

[Fearless]

24. They did not call cell phones... unless they broke the law...

The poll was conducted with robo calls. If they robo called cell phone numbers they broke the law.

[99Forever]

33. Precisely who the hell are you to tell me what I will accept?

We're done here.

[Adrahil]

51. And GET OFF MY LAWN!!!!

Love it when people refuse to accept information that contradicts their predetermined notions.

[99Forever]

54. Ya know.... I almost...

...give a fuck what you "love."




But not quite.

[Adrahil]

55. Continuing your charm offensive, I see.

Don't forget to stomp your feet.

[99Forever]

56. Got a nose problem?

[Adrahil]

57. heh! nt

[winter is coming]

32. +1. We actually got a robocall from Gravis a few days before the debate.

I love Caller ID.

[Nitram]

50. Did you take the opportunity to make your opinion part of the poll? nt

[Admiral Loinpresser]

28. Is this the same DNC

which has placed institutional hurdles in Bernie's way and stacked the crowd with Hillary supporters?

[Adrahil]

52. They ain't the only poll out there coming to that conclusion.

Sorry Bernie fans:

http://www.vox.com/2015/10/16/9553489/hillary-clinton-debate-won

[stevenleser]

40. Yep, I posted this yesterday. Oh and beware of incoming from folks who don't like the results. nt

[Dem2]

43. I was directed to your post above.

Did not realize it prior to posting, but this was an interesting discussion nonetheless.

If online and "focus group" polls are valid, then an actual scientific poll is also. I suppose the same people who find no fault with the former and are poking holes in the latter could be criticized for using inconsistent arguments.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

53. Bah, I thought you meant a reall poll.

I don't care about the 'who thought who won'. That's conventional wisdom crap based around what people choose to call 'winning'.

Give me the numbers on how it affected who people plan to vote for. THAT tells you who really 'won'.

[Dem2]

59. Hillary Clinton has increased her lead nationally over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/257311-clinton-up-biden-down-in-post-debate-poll

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

60. Not according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll.

That one, post debate, as I noted saw her gaining 3 points, but Sanders gaining 5.

[Dem2]

61. Huge bounce for Hillary in another poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=704553

I thought Hillary did better personally and the polls seem to be bearing that out.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

62. More polls now do show her gaining. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. Thank you for the link./nt