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Thu Oct 15, 2015, 11:40 AM

First Post DNC Debate Poll Results (Gravis Marketing)

Great news for both Bernie and Hillary. This poll is obviously more reliable than the online ones we've seen, most of which do not even require user validation by SMS or email.

The MOE was +/- 3.6, and the survey was conducted via telephone. All respondents identified as Democrats.

Post DNC Debate Poll Results
Who Do You Think Won?
Clinton 62%
Sanders 30%
O' Malley 9%
Chafee 2%
Webb 1%

...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/14/1432486/-First-Post-DNC-Debate-Poll-Results-Gravitas-Marketing

62 replies, 4041 views

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Arrow 62 replies Author Time Post
Reply First Post DNC Debate Poll Results (Gravis Marketing) (Original post)
Dem2 Oct 2015 OP
HassleCat Oct 2015 #1
LonePirate Oct 2015 #7
HassleCat Oct 2015 #9
1StrongBlackMan Oct 2015 #41
1StrongBlackMan Oct 2015 #39
m-lekktor Oct 2015 #2
marym625 Oct 2015 #3
NorthCarolina Oct 2015 #13
marym625 Oct 2015 #16
tammywammy Oct 2015 #17
Fearless Oct 2015 #21
tammywammy Oct 2015 #35
Fearless Oct 2015 #37
tammywammy Oct 2015 #38
whatthehey Oct 2015 #47
Fearless Oct 2015 #49
WI_DEM Oct 2015 #4
bkkyosemite Oct 2015 #5
Dem2 Oct 2015 #11
Fearless Oct 2015 #22
Dem2 Oct 2015 #26
Fearless Oct 2015 #27
Dem2 Oct 2015 #30
Le Taz Hot Oct 2015 #48
Nitram Oct 2015 #6
leftofcool Oct 2015 #8
FloridaBlues Oct 2015 #10
Fearless Oct 2015 #23
Name removed Oct 2015 #12
Fumesucker Oct 2015 #14
Dem2 Oct 2015 #15
Fumesucker Oct 2015 #19
Dem2 Oct 2015 #25
Admiral Loinpresser Oct 2015 #29
Dem2 Oct 2015 #31
Admiral Loinpresser Oct 2015 #34
Dem2 Oct 2015 #42
Admiral Loinpresser Oct 2015 #44
Fumesucker Oct 2015 #36
Admiral Loinpresser Oct 2015 #45
Dem2 Oct 2015 #46
99Forever Oct 2015 #18
Dem2 Oct 2015 #20
Fearless Oct 2015 #24
99Forever Oct 2015 #33
Adrahil Oct 2015 #51
99Forever Oct 2015 #54
Adrahil Oct 2015 #55
99Forever Oct 2015 #56
Adrahil Oct 2015 #57
winter is coming Oct 2015 #32
Nitram Oct 2015 #50
Admiral Loinpresser Oct 2015 #28
Adrahil Oct 2015 #52
stevenleser Oct 2015 #40
Dem2 Oct 2015 #43
Erich Bloodaxe BSN Oct 2015 #53
Dem2 Oct 2015 #59
Erich Bloodaxe BSN Oct 2015 #60
Dem2 Oct 2015 #61
Erich Bloodaxe BSN Oct 2015 #62
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #58

Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 11:44 AM

1. Better but still skewed

 

Polls conducted by telephone are known to have problems, particularly now, when many people are giving up telephones in favor of cell phones.

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Response to HassleCat (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 11:56 AM

7. Most phone polls nowadays include cell phones and not just landlines

You should not assume cell phone users were excluded unless the pollster explicitly states they were.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 12:09 PM

9. Cell phones have this problem

 

Telephone polls are already skewed by the fact that some people have unlisted numbers. They're also skewed by the selection process, deciding who to call. Cell phones are worse because many people take their numbers with them when they move, so there's no way to know if the respondent is in Iowa or Alaska. When they cite the margin of error at 3.5 percent, I regard that skeptically, although the 60/30 tilt probably wipes out any skew. In other words, the poll is accurate enough to establish that Clinton "won" the debate, even if the real split is not 60/30.

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Response to HassleCat (Reply #9)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:57 PM

41. See Post 39 ...

 

Telephone polls are already skewed by the fact that some people have unlisted numbers.
Telephone surveys do not draw from telephone listings.

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Response to HassleCat (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:52 PM

39. Is a cell phone, not a telephone? ...

 

And from the internals, the survey simpled the demographic most likely to be cell phone only users.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 11:48 AM

2. This poll was discussed extensively in a thread yesterday by DUer SteveLeser.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 11:48 AM

3. how is it more reliable?

Most of the people I know have left any connection with the DNC. Very many who associate with it now are Hillary supporters. How is it more reliable than random people watching and voicing their opinions online? If anything, it seems less reliable

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Response to marym625 (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 12:45 PM

13. Probably because it comes from the

 

establishment, the defacto voice-of-authority. Polling schmolling and hocus pocus focus groups do not trump what the establishment defines as truth. You will comply.

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Response to NorthCarolina (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:03 PM

16. my bad!

I was tired. I forgot to fall in line. Thank you for the reminder!

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Response to marym625 (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:14 PM

17. Online polls like what you find on Facebook are self-selecting

Other than for entertainment, no one should put any value in online self-selecting polls. They're meaningless.

I will add that people should wait until more of the post-debate pills come out before crowing so and so won or lost.

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Response to tammywammy (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:24 PM

21. They tell you who people support.

All polls are meaningless.

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Response to Fearless (Reply #21)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:01 PM

35. That's not true at all.

Not all polls or surveys are meaningless. That's saying you don't understand statistics.

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Response to tammywammy (Reply #35)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:07 PM

37. That's false.

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Response to Fearless (Reply #37)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:27 PM

38. What's false?

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Response to Fearless (Reply #21)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:25 PM

47. They tell you who cares enough to clean cookies or set up bots to vote multiple times

Not exactly a problem with in person polling. Neither is out-of-country participation, and if screening is done worth a crap, people ineligible by age, citizenship or affiliation are much less of a problem than they are online.

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Response to whatthehey (Reply #47)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 04:02 PM

49. The CNN/Facebook poll required log in or logging of IP address. Sorry. No dice.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 11:48 AM

4. Gravis is not my favorite pollster, but I agree

this is better than on-line polls where supporters are urged to go and vote for who they believe had won. I'll also wait and see what other post-debate polls show.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 11:48 AM

5. I do not believe those numbers at all

This is the reason at below link. Anyone looking at this list cannot believe that he is so much behind Hillary. Just not so.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/128062750

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Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 12:25 PM

11. That same poll shows Bernie only 8 points behind Hillary.



This doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:25 PM

22. I should note the very high number of college educated people in the poll... 90%??

And that Gravis was very very wrong on several polls in the past two years.

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Response to Fearless (Reply #22)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:31 PM

26. College educated = 58%

"Some college" is meaningless, most "average" people I know have taken classes at one time or another, in polls they don't count as "college educated" since they never got a degree.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #26)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:36 PM

27. Only approximately 60% of US citizens have had "some college" or higher... Not 90%

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Response to Fearless (Reply #27)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:49 PM

30. The poll is Democrats only

Democrats tend to be more educated. http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2012/nov/05/larry-sabato/education-level-tied-voting-tendencies/

It's difficult to determine the exact numbers, even the Wikipedia page is confusing the way it divides into age groups.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #30)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:34 PM

48. Which is Hillary's (only) base, not Bernie's

who is getting crossover votes so, of course, it's going to give Hillary an advantage.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 11:53 AM

6. It is telling that some only believe poll results that confirm their own beliefs.

Shades of Karl Rove.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 12:00 PM

8. Gravis is at least scientific.

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 12:10 PM

10. Wow 32 ahead good for Hillary campaign

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:25 PM

23. Except they have a history of being dead wrong.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)


Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 12:52 PM

14. The most telling statistic in the poll



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Response to Fumesucker (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:03 PM

15. Can you explain the significance? n/t

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #15)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:21 PM

19. One of the biggest applause line of the night was the debate panel getting smacked down

And yet 91% of the polled audience thought it was an acceptable performance on the part of the debate panel.

When one of the debaters has to step in to read the panel the riot act it's not an acceptable performance, I'm not sure I've ever even heard of such a thing before.

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Response to Fumesucker (Reply #19)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:27 PM

25. I saw a different debate, apparently.

Seemed relatively tame and the panel was relatively well behaved in my view. I haven't seen much in the way of criticism of the panel - but perhaps I am just not looking in the right places? I suppose it doesn't matter, I am pretty sure you won't be changing your opinion.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #25)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:44 PM

29. Audience was stacked for Hillary. n/t

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Response to Admiral Loinpresser (Reply #29)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:51 PM

31. The audience certainly was stacked in favor of Democrats!

I would like to see a legitimate source that proves it was stacked in favor of a particular candidate because I heard both Hillary and Bernie get really big applause feedback from the crowd.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #31)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:00 PM

34. Keep it real.

The audio told the whole story. Do you honestly think Little Debbie will play fair in this one exception when she has stacked the deck at every opportunity?

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Response to Admiral Loinpresser (Reply #34)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:04 PM

42. She seemed to do pretty well to those of us who like both candidates

I was very pleased, both Hillary and Bernie did very well at the debate. As Bernie said, I do realize that this is not politically advantageous of me to note this, but I am a fan of no candidate and will give credit where credit is due.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #42)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:19 PM

44. Every candidate except Annie Oakley disagrees.

O'Malley actually embarrassed her in front of 15 million people. And the audio clearly demonstrates the audience was stacked, imo.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #25)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:05 PM

36. I'm not trying to convince you...

I don't think Bernie Sanders' unprecedented interjection would have been necessary at a well run debate, a League of Women Voters debate for instance.

The debate team scored on the panel and then shook hands over it to huge applause.

But it was a decently run debate....

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Response to Fumesucker (Reply #36)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:21 PM

45. We desperately need the LOWV. n/t

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Response to Fumesucker (Reply #36)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:21 PM

46. It was a decently run debate

in my view. I was neutral heading into the debate and was quite pleased after the debate, especially with Bernie and Hillary. I'll vote for either Bernie or Hillary, I haven't decided yet.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:15 PM

18. "more reliable" my ass.

Our landline exists necause DSL is our only affordable option. That phone hasn't been answered years. Hell, most people I know haven't even had a landline for a decade or longer. Reliably WRONG is more like it.

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Response to 99Forever (Reply #18)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:22 PM

20. They also call cellphones. Also, check out the demographics of the poll.

Last edited Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:53 PM - Edit history (1)

You'd accept this data if the numbers showed what you wanted to see.

Edit: it seems they only use land lines. Still, if you look at the demographics, they did get that right.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #20)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:26 PM

24. They did not call cell phones... unless they broke the law...

The poll was conducted with robo calls. If they robo called cell phone numbers they broke the law.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #20)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:55 PM

33. Precisely who the hell are you to tell me what I will accept?

We're done here.

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Response to 99Forever (Reply #33)

Fri Oct 16, 2015, 01:39 PM

51. And GET OFF MY LAWN!!!!

 

Love it when people refuse to accept information that contradicts their predetermined notions.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #51)

Fri Oct 16, 2015, 01:59 PM

54. Ya know.... I almost...

...give a fuck what you "love."




But not quite.



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Response to 99Forever (Reply #54)

Fri Oct 16, 2015, 02:11 PM

55. Continuing your charm offensive, I see.

 

Don't forget to stomp your feet.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #55)

Fri Oct 16, 2015, 02:16 PM

56. Got a nose problem?

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Response to 99Forever (Reply #56)

Fri Oct 16, 2015, 02:21 PM

57. heh! nt

 

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Response to 99Forever (Reply #18)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:54 PM

32. +1. We actually got a robocall from Gravis a few days before the debate.

I love Caller ID.

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Response to winter is coming (Reply #32)

Fri Oct 16, 2015, 01:36 PM

50. Did you take the opportunity to make your opinion part of the poll? nt

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 01:41 PM

28. Is this the same DNC

which has placed institutional hurdles in Bernie's way and stacked the crowd with Hillary supporters?

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Response to Admiral Loinpresser (Reply #28)

Fri Oct 16, 2015, 01:40 PM

52. They ain't the only poll out there coming to that conclusion.

 

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:54 PM

40. Yep, I posted this yesterday. Oh and beware of incoming from folks who don't like the results. nt

 

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #40)

Thu Oct 15, 2015, 03:11 PM

43. I was directed to your post above.

Did not realize it prior to posting, but this was an interesting discussion nonetheless.

If online and "focus group" polls are valid, then an actual scientific poll is also. I suppose the same people who find no fault with the former and are poking holes in the latter could be criticized for using inconsistent arguments.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Oct 16, 2015, 01:40 PM

53. Bah, I thought you meant a reall poll.

I don't care about the 'who thought who won'. That's conventional wisdom crap based around what people choose to call 'winning'.

Give me the numbers on how it affected who people plan to vote for. THAT tells you who really 'won'.

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Response to Erich Bloodaxe BSN (Reply #53)

Mon Oct 19, 2015, 05:02 PM

59. Hillary Clinton has increased her lead nationally over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #59)

Mon Oct 19, 2015, 05:16 PM

60. Not according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll.

That one, post debate, as I noted saw her gaining 3 points, but Sanders gaining 5.

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Response to Erich Bloodaxe BSN (Reply #60)

Wed Oct 21, 2015, 12:23 AM

61. Huge bounce for Hillary in another poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=704553

I thought Hillary did better personally and the polls seem to be bearing that out.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #61)

Wed Oct 21, 2015, 07:18 AM

62. More polls now do show her gaining. nt

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2015, 08:22 AM

58. Thank you for the link./nt

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