Why did Howard Dean lose in the 2004 primary to a guy who voted for the IWR?

[Nye Bevan]

Bearing in mind that the "Dean Scream" came after he had already crashed and burned in Iowa? And he had even been endorsed by Al Gore!

[uponit7771]

1. HILLARY DID IT!! /sarcasm <--- cause this is needed around here

[Cheese Sandwich]

2. In 2004 we didn't yet know the full damage from the Iraq War. Now we know.

Back then it was still pretty new, still sinking in. Time has shown it has been much worse.


eta:

Actually the Iowa caucus was only about a month after the capture of Saddam Hussein. So at that time it might have seemed to many like the war was going pretty well, like it was a good policy.

[Raine1967]

3. You could say the same thing about the Clinton.

This is a pretty bad explanation.

[Cheese Sandwich]

5. She should have know better though because as a Senator it's your job to know stuff

For voters it might have seemed like the war was going well since they had just captured Saddam one month before the Iowa caucuses.

[Nye Bevan]

9. Kerry was a senator. Should he have known better?

Was Obama wrong to appoint him Secretary of State?

[Cheese Sandwich]

10. Yeah he should have known better.

That vote was horrible. It would suck to have to defend it.

[Nye Bevan]

6. So in 2004 and earlier supporting the Iraq war was excusable? (nt)

[Cheese Sandwich]

7. Certainly not for a US Senator. But for voters it probably seemed like we were "winning" the war.

So voters might not have considered a politician's support for the war as such a horrible thing.

[McCamy Taylor]

21. But in 2002, Clinton's crystal ball showed her the full damage?

[Cheese Sandwich]

22. No she just as very shitty judgement.

Some in Congress looked at the evidence and authorized war. Others looked at the same evidence and said no way.

The OP question related to why did voters not weigh the Iraq War vote as heavily in 2004.

The question really isn't about whether Clinton made the right judgement in 2002. I think everybody agrees she made a mistake.

The question is about why are voters giving that vote more weight 12 years later. The reason is because thanks to that war the whole middle east is now totally effed up. Iraq and Syria are two failed states and terrorists are running rampant.

The consequences of the war have become more clear after a decade.

[merrily]

26. Sanders' crystal ball showed him the invasion would de-stabilize the entire Middle East.

[bigtree]

35. oh, ffs

...I used to like pretzels.

[Cheese Sandwich]

36. If you got a better answer I guess you could speak your mind

Just speaking for myself, personally, I weight the Iraq war vote as a much more damaging vote today than I did in 2004.

We have a decade more information now.

[merrily]

4. Losing in Iowa equals crashing and burning now? Seems like only a very short time

that losing both NH and Iowa was meaningless.

Time flies on DU.

[Nye Bevan]

8. I would consider third place in Iowa to be crashing and burning (nt)

[merrily]

12. As in Obama, Edwards, Clinton?

[restorefreedom]

14. well played, merrily. :) nt

[JI7]

11. because people didn't think Kerry supported the war or would have went to war himself

and Dean was shown to be conservative on issues that matter to people.

[That Guy 888]

13. I disagree, his campaign was still viable

Iowa is early, and Dean was gaining momentum when "the scream" was manufactured. I didn't see an explanation of the sound manipulation until after his campaign became a joke after two to three weeks of continuous airplay.

[merrily]

27. I agree--and I was both relatively uninformed then and set on voting for Kerry.

Even to someone who was not keeping up politically, what was done to Dean could not have been more obvious.

I will never forget that my jaw physically dropped when Katy Couric introduced the video of the scream by saying something had happened that was making some people question his sanity (or words to that effect). And then when I saw it played over and over and over for days....

Democracy.

[Live and Learn]

34. +1 And the DNC wanted him out so they simply snickered and let it play out

instead of coming to his defense.

[oasis]

15. Simply put, in 2004 Democrats blamed Bush/Cheney for the war.

At least the ones with their heads screwed on correctly.

[Ken Burch]

16. What is your point here?

Why are you so fixated with perpetrating the myth that most Dems still supported the Iraq War in 2004? Or that they thought it didn't matter.

There is nobody here who is ONLY upset about HRC's IWR vote because it was her casting it. We'd have the same attitude if anyone else who had voted to let Bush have his war was running this year.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. My take...

Dean vaulted to the top of the Democratic Primary largely because of his opposition to the Iraq War. Most Democrats, and almost all liberals, opposed it. They didn't want it. Dean was able to become a mainstream messenger who had credibility, something Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton lacked (Bob Graham had credibility but he was stiff and boring). He also had a great staff that attracted grass roots who fueled much of the campaign early. The buzz surrounding Dean was very similar, if not more so, than what we're seeing with Bernie - especially since there was no real heavyweight in the race. Kerry was perceived to be a favorite early, but cash strapped and losing support for his Iraq War vote, dropped behind in the polls throughout early 2003, as did Joe Lieberman, Edwards and Gephardt - others who supported the war.

Dean cornered the anger and, at the time, benefited from support that didn't fear the general election. At that point, Bush had approval in the 60s and looked like a sure-bet for reelection. In January, 2003, Bush led Dean 55-25. As Dean became more popular, his head-to-head numbers with Bush improved, but every match-up had him losing:

March, 2003: 52-31
September, 2003: 47-37
Late-Sept., 2003: 47-37
October, 2003: 47-39

Dean did have momentum as Bush's ratings slipped in the wake of Iraq kinda regressing throughout much of 2003. But that was also because Bush's approval was faltering at this point, too, and other Democrats started doing well against Bush, too.

In that October poll that had Dean losing 47-39, Clark trailed 46-37 and Kerry only trailed 45-41 (so, consensus started forming Kerry was more electable).

At this point, with diminishing numbers for Bush, it became clear the Democrats might actually have a shot in the 2004 election. In January, 2003, no Democrat came within 20 points of Bush and now, entering the end of the year, Bush's lead had eroded to under ten-points between Clark & Dean and only four with Kerry.

Ironically, as Dean's numbers improved, anxiety about his electability became his kryptonite. Democrats started feeling they could really win this thing and while Dean was sorta holding his own against Bush, Kerry was clearly the one who did the most damage in a head-to-head match-up.

That concern doomed Dean. Democrats started openly questioning his stability, whether he was grounded enough to handle a general election campaign - especially due to his often perceived anger.

Then Saddam was captured and the narrative changed at the absolute worst time for Dean.

The capture of Saddam didn't boost Bush permanently that election cycle but with it happening in December, it brought foreign policy to the forefront and made the Iraq War a bit more popular than it had been since the Mission Accomplished BS. Bush got a bump in the ratings, but guys like Dean, who had no foreign policy experience, were left hanging - they continued to defend against the war but it was an argument that rang hollow at the time he needed it the most: basically, the final stretch before the caucus in Iowa.

In late December, right before Christmas, two polls killed Dean:

ABC News had Bush up 56-38 and CBS News had Bush up 55-35. All the momentum gained throughout the summer in that head-to-head, where he battled from 30 points down to within ten, was lost. Couple that with the realization Democrats could still win the election and many party supporters started buying into the idea of ABB - Anyone But Bush. Kerry was that anyone.

In early January, 2004, before the Iowa Caucus, Dean had failed to recapture a great deal of national support.

At this point, Bush's bump had evaporated and Kerry actually led him in a Jan., 2004 Quinnipiac poll 51-43. But in the same poll, Dean was losing 49-44 - tied with Lieberman for the worst performance head-to-head against Bush at that point. Edwards trailed 47-45 and Clark 48-45.

Democrats initially flirted with Dean because he spoke to them. When he did, it was at a time when Bush looked untouchable so it was fun to kinda flirt with him. When Bush's approval started to tank, though, and it became more evident he was in trouble, Democrats got cold feet and went with the man who did best head-to-head ... even if he supported the Iraq War originally.

Beyond that, though, Dean had a horrible December. His entire campaign was hit with a ton of minor scandals that didn't amount to anything ... but together added up.

1) Dean made a gaffe when, in an interview with the Des Moines Register, he said he wanted to be the candidate for the guys with the Confederate Flag on their pick up. I get what Dean meant and I felt the reaction was overblown ... but it was bad imagery. It didn't help he invoked it in reference to his opposition of the assault weapons ban in 1992. It left Dean on the defensive - as he was forced to defend it and the NRA remark.

2) There was a debate where Al Sharpton called out Dean for having zero minorities in his administration as governor. It didn't matter that Vermont is one of the whitest states in the country, Sharpton's accusations, that Dean didn't even look into hiring a minority, resonated, especially when you couple it with the Confederate Flag remark from a month earlier.

3) A video was released mere weeks before the Iowa Caucus that had Dean, in an interview with a Canadian public-access station years earlier, deriding the caucus system. It was played over and over again in Iowa, who prides itself on the system, and again made for bad imagery. Dean tried to walk it back ... but I don't think he could ever really do it.

4) Dean got into a bitter, dirty campaign fight with Dick Gephardt in the final weeks of the Iowa campaign. Gephardt, at this point, appeared to be Dean's biggest threat and polls were tightening there after Dean had led through much of the latter-half of the 2003 campaign season. As the new year approached, due to the above issues, Dean's numbers dropped and Gephardt benefited. So, Dean went after him ... and Gephardt went after Dean. It became ugly. Really ugly. So ugly, that...

5) The Des Moines Register endorsed John Edwards. Much of it was because Edwards, and Kerry to a lesser extent, stayed above the negative politics. I think Dean had counted on the endorsement but it gave Edwards a lot of momentum entering the stretch run.

6) Knowing he wouldn't win, Kucinich made a deal with Edwards that he would urge his supporters to caucus with Edwards if Kucinich didn't reach the threshold needed to make it to the second round. That helped Edwards and hurt Dean, as many of these supporters would have gone to Dean due to his anti-Iraq war stance.

7) As this all played out, Dean and Gephardt continued to wage a negative ad war. Dean realized it wasn't working and pulled back. In the final days of the caucus, he started wearing a sweater and went more positive (he was also dinged by an incident where he shouted down a Republican during a town hall). Unfortunately for Dean, it was too late.

Kerry, riding a wave of support from being perceived more electable, along with staying out of the Dean-Gephardt wars, and Edwards, who got a lot of positive buzz from the DMR endorsement, finished 1st and 2nd. Dean's 3rd place finish did him in. He wasn't going to come back from that. The Dean Scream, even if it was unfairly portrayed, didn't mean much except just more salt in the wound. Had it never happened, or had it not played out like it did, Dean was still going to lose.

Beyond that, Dean's Iowa campaign was very poorly run. They brought in outsiders to help canvas and from what I remember hearing, it rubbed locals the wrong way - especially with how many times the Stormers (as they were called) reached out to voters. It became overkill. A lot of people were turned off with the constant barrage they were receiving from young Dean supporters - either through phone calls, letters or door-to-door contact. The campaign also thought they'd win by bringing to the caucus first-time voters, since you could legally caucus in Iowa even if you weren't 18 (you just had to be 18 by the date of the general election). They never showed up.

Tie it all together and I think that's what did Dean in.

More or less...

[elleng]

18. Good analysis, and this WAS significant, lasted for a while:

1) Dean made a gaffe when, in an interview with the Des Moines Register, he said he wanted to be the candidate for the guys with the Confederate Flag on their pick up. I get what Dean meant and I felt the reaction was overblown ... but it was bad imagery. It didn't help he invoked it in reference to his opposition of the assault weapons ban in 1992. It left Dean on the defensive - as he was forced to defend it and the NRA remark.

[Drunken Irishman]

19. I'll also throw out there that the Gore endorsement hurt Dean...

Throughout the entire campaign he had portrayed himself as an outsider and here he was accepting the endorsement of the ultimate insider (at the time) - Al Gore.

[McCamy Taylor]

20. Because it's only bad if Clinton does it, silly.

Everyone knows that. If Kerry did it, he had good motives. If Clinton did it, she had bad motives. How do we know? Because of our amazing mind reading powers.

[merrily]

29. Who else who is running for the Democratic nomination NOW voted for the invasion (AND advocated for

it, but let's just stick with vote for now)?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

23. Because voters thought that killing a lot of people was OK.

Now, the same people think that calling it a "mistake" makes the killing OK.

[treestar]

24. The General Public and even of Democrats

had no problem with it. It was closer to 911 and mention of 911 trumped everything. No one could be seen as weak on "national security" at that point.

[Motown_Johnny]

25. 2004 was to early to know what a disaster that vote was....

plus Dean was a Governor and never had to make that choice.

The combination of the two made the IWR vote less of an issue back then.


As Hillary would say, people take in more information and base their decisions on that information. Only the Republicans just make up their minds and then that is it.


If Hillary can flip on TPP over and back again within a few weeks, then we can decide that something we didn't like 11-12 years ago is something we like even less now.

[merrily]

30. Actually, Sanders and others knew what a disaster that vote was before the vote was taken.

THAT is judgment and leadership.

[INdemo]

28. Could be the same reason Terry McAuliffe

was working behind the scenes against Howard Dean. The same reason he did not push for a new vote count for 140,000+ votes lost or just flat-out stolen in Ohio in 2004 in order to set Hillary up for her 2008 Presidential run.
Just how did that work out Terry?

[merrily]

31. The entire DLC/New Democrat contingent was against Dean.

[BeyondGeography]

32. Bush was running on national security and no one could picture Howard as C-in-C

Last edited Mon Oct 19, 2015, 08:36 AM - Edit history (1)

except the true believers. Kerry killed him on electability. Even good ole Wes Clark recognized the weakness and had a good couple of months or so of polling before Kerry found his footing.

There was also a major self-inflicted wound on tax hikes. Howard was a deficit hawk and wouldn't rule out middle class tax hikes. Kerry jumped all over that in early December in Iowa and people said, wait, we're going to nominate a tax-raising antiwar candidate from Vermont instead of a war hero who swears he won't touch the middle class? That was that.

[Zorra]

33. Clue #1:

[99Forever]

37. Who cares?

Check your watch.

[in_cog_ni_to]

38. The "Dean Scream" (that wasn't really a scream) was on an endless loop, on every network for weeks

on end. The Corporate Owned MSM took him down.