National Polls DON'T MEAN SQUAT Right Now

[Unemperor Justinian]

So, Hillary is leading Bernie in countrywide polls? Great. Good for her!

But what of Iowa? Numbers from New Hampshire, if you please? South Carolina? Nevada? Because that's the way we nominate candidates!

[riversedge]

1. you can look up the numbers but Hillary in leading in all of the states you mentioned..

--very slightly in some.

[CoffeeCat]

4. No, they are tied in Iowa and NH is tied...

I don't know where you are getting your information from, but the latest poll shows Sanders beating Clinton in Iowa. Clinton has dropped 35 points in Iowa since May. She's in a freefall in Iowa. Obama never saw numbers like this, so early before the Iowa caucus.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-tracker-sanders-surges-in-ia-nh-clinton-up-in-sc/

In NH, the race is a dead heat. It's important to note that Clinton was always ahead in NH, in the 08 primary against Obama. Bernie has been ahead in most NH polls. Recently, he has lost a bit of ground, but he is still doing very well in NH.

https://www.wbur.org/2015/10/21/wbur-poll-new-hampshire-october

Sanders is in better shape against Clinton--at this point in IA and NH--than Obama was. That's...huge.

It will be interesting to see how the numbers change, since Biden is out now.

[Unemperor Justinian]

5. That's been my understanding

At least in those first two states.

[riversedge]

7. NOPE--Your Iowa link is from Sept 13 & she is UP in NH also

You best catch up with the polls.



In Iowa--Clinton has been UP last 3 polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html



Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus
1.2k Shares
National: Dem, GOP | Iowa: Dem, GOP | N.H.: Dem, GOP | S.C.: Dem, GOP | General Election Match-Ups
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample
Clinton

Sanders

Biden

O'Malley

Webb

Chafee
Spread
RCP Average 9/18 - 9/30 -- 38.7 27.0 17.0 2.7 1.7 0.7 Clinton +11.7
NBC/WSJ 9/23 - 9/30 348 RV 33 28 22 3 1 0 Clinton +5
Gravis 9/25 - 9/27 328 RV 40 31 12 2 1 0 Clinton +9
PPP (D) 9/18 - 9/20 488 RV 43 22 17 3 3 2 Clinton +21



NH
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html




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New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary
National: Dem, GOP | Iowa: Dem, GOP | N.H.: Dem, GOP | S.C.: Dem, GOP | General Election Match-Ups
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample
Clinton

Sanders

Biden

Webb

O'Malley

Chafee
Spread
RCP Average 10/14 - 10/18 -- 36.4 36.2 12.0 1.8 1.4 0.8 Clinton +0.2
Bloomberg/St. Anselm 10/15 - 10/18 400 RV 36 41 10 1 0 0 Sanders +5
WBUR 10/15 - 10/18 401 LV 38 34 9 2 1 0 Clinton +4
PPP (D) 10/16 - 10/18 393 RV 41 33 11 2 4 2 Clinton +8
Boston Herald/FPU 10/14 - 10/17 403 LV 30 38 19 1 1 1 Sanders +8
Boston Globe/Suffolk 10/14 - 10/15 500 LV 37 35 11 3 1 1 Clinton +2

All New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Polling Data

[CoffeeCat]

11. Hillary won't win Iowa...

Last edited Thu Oct 22, 2015, 11:40 AM - Edit history (1)

...I would bet $100 on it.

She came in third in 08, and the state is just not in her corner. democratic caucus goers are looking for any one besides Hillary to vote for. It's not going to take much to continue to erode her support in Iowa, because that support is very weak.

She just does not translate well in Iowa--where they demand a more personalized style of campaigning.

She's lost 30 points since the summer.

I see those latest polls and you are correct, that she is ahead by single digits in Iowa. sanders is ahead in the latest NH poll, although he is trailing by single digits in a few recent NH polls.

This data dies not bode well for Hillary at all. If she loses the first two states, this entire race is turned upside down.

[riversedge]

12. BIG 'if' in your last sentence.

[Unemperor Justinian]

13. In politics, "if" is always big

If Carter had succeeded in rescuing the Iranian hostages, we never would've had to suffer the Reagan Administration. If Gore had demanded a recount of all 67 Florida counties, we'd have been spared the national disaster of the Bush years. And if we let petty shit prevent us from voting for our party's nominee (whomever it turns out to be) in November of next year, we'll be commiting suicide, for the party and the country!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. $1000.00 says Hillary wins the nomination.

$1000.00 says Hillary wins the nomination.

I will give my winnings to charity and document it. I am not in this for pecuniary gain or filthy lucre. If Hillary loses I will give the poster who takes the wager $1,000.00 to do with it whatever he or she wants.

[George II]

27. I don't know where this "down 30 points since the summer" comes from

One of the most recent polls, NBC/Marist (late September), shows 47-36, the previous NBC/Marist poll showed her at 48-37 (August), virtually the same.

Of course, there are some polls that showed her higher, but the only way to gauge how much she increased or dropped is to compare two releases of the same poll.

On the other hand, the Des Moines Register poll, which has been touted as the most accurate because the Des Moines Register "knows more about Iowa than any other source", now has Clinton ahead by 48-41. The previous August Des Moines Register poll had her at 37-30.

The comment "they demand a more personalized style of campaigning" is interesting. That is precisely what Clinton has been doing since the spring, and she was criticized for it here on DU.

[RandySF]

2. She is leading in all of those states now.

And crushing Sanders in NV, SC, MA and FL.

[BootinUp]

3. one more all capitalized word

and you would'a had me.

[Unemperor Justinian]

8. Without even saying hello???

Oh, you Scarlet Woman!

[TlalocW]

6. National polls never mean anything to me

It's a state-by-state fight no matter what. Focusing on national polls (very biased ones that they did themselves) is what made FOX believe that Romney was going to win when they should have been paying more attention to the different routes each candidate could take to get to 270 electoral votes. Obama had more routes and better numbers in key states thus the meltdowns and outrage when Obama won again... not over their own stupidity of course.

TlalocW

[Unemperor Justinian]

10. That brings back Memories

Dick Morris: Mitt Will Win in a Landslide with 325 Electoral Votes!

[workinclasszero]

29. Fox "news" will be trotting out the same BS next year

for whatever clown the teahaaddists put up against Hillary.

Idiots.

[TlalocW]

33. I remember a week or two before the elections

Either Hannity or O'Reilly had Dennis Miller on to discuss the polls - mostly FOX Polls - that showed nationally Mitt was ahead of Obama, and Dennis mentioned they all said that except for a few which he just decided to not believe in. Meanwhile on DU, several people with more patience than I had been painstakingly mapping out the different paths to victory for both, looking at state polls everyday, and Mitt just had fewer ways to reach 270 (and that's with a lot of, "If this happens, and that happens" thrown in) than Obama. So I felt pretty good going into the election but a little nervous - it's not over until the fat lady sings, or the republicans are kept from cheating, which I think they were planning on doing in Ohio. Either whatever they were planning failed, the people assigned to "pull the lever" so-to-speak chickened out, or by that point it was obvious that Obama was going to win no matter what so why bother? No one told Karl Rove this, which is why he freaked out.

TlalocW

[BainsBane]

9. HuffPo polling averages for Iowa and NH

Pollster Trend

Iowa

Hillary Clinton 42.6%
Bernie Sanders 33.1%
Joe Biden 11.9%
Martin O'Malley 4.0%
Jim Webb 1.2%
Lincoln Chafee 0.5%
Lawrence Lessig 0.0%
Undecided
Other

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary

Pollster Trend

New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders 39.8%
Hillary Clinton 33.7%
Joe Biden 11.3%
Jim Webb 1.3%
Martin O'Malley 1.1%
Lincoln Chafee 1.0%
Lawrence Lessig 1.0%
Undecided
Other

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus

Polling since the debate has shown Clinton gaining, so the trend is in her direction. As pollsters adjust their numbers to account for Biden not running, she gains over Bernie. We'll probably have to wait a week or two to see how that manifests itself in the polling averages. For the time being, Bernie still leaders in NH in the average.

[stonecutter357]

15. The media is ALL Aboard for Hillary

good

[Agschmid]

18. I doubt a Sander presidency would have a large impact on media lunches...

But hey, maybe that's a new policy position of his? No more media lunches with powerful people.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

16. I didn't watch the debate, but please call me...

...I'll tell you I did and I'll tell you my guy won.

[NCTraveler]

17. They mean a great deal.

The person in the lead gets to tout them. The others don't. Having metrics to tout that make your candidate look good makes a difference. No different than your thoughts on states. Clinton supporters currently get to say they are leading in all states. That's big when promoting your candidate.

[brooklynite]

19. Fair point; Clinton is ahed in all of them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Res ipsa loquitur

Res ipsa loquitur

So, Hillary is leading Bernie in countrywide polls? Great. Good for her!

But what of Iowa? Numbers from New Hampshire, if you please? South Carolina? Nevada? Because that's the way we nominate candidates!

But what of Iowa?


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

Numbers from New Hampshire,

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html





South Carolina?


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html



Nevada?


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-5337.html

[FSogol]

21. Tranlsation: If my candidate isn't ahead, then the polls are meaningless....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. This unpleasantness will end in the snows of New Hampshire or the ranchlands of Texas.

eom

[FSogol]

23. Probably after Super Tuesday. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Hence, the allusion to the ranchlands of Texas...

I have never been to Texas except for the airport in Austin.

[workinclasszero]

31. Definitely after Super Tuesday

[mythology]

26. Technically speaking, they aren't wrong

Gore won the national vote in 2000, but lost the election. Clinton won more primary voters (discounting caucus states), than Obama in 2008, but Obama won the delegate count for the nomination pretty easily.

Yes it's rare for a candidate to win more votes and lose, but voting occurs at the state level and even more so for primaries, where the voting is on different days and in different styles.

It's not that polls are meaningless, it's that they present an inaccurate picture.

[workinclasszero]

28. I don't think you want to know the numbers in

South Carolina or Nevada if you are a Bernie backer.

Just sayin..

[NuclearDem]

30. I love the taste of sour grapes in the morning.

[MineralMan]

32. They do, but only to the extent that they influence public opinion

in upcoming primary and caucus states. And they do have an influence. Many primary voters want to vote for the candidate they perceive as having the best chance to win nationally. People are funny that way. Other people want to support the candidate they perceive as the underdog.

Another group looks at positions and carefully weighs likelihoods of success, then votes accordingly. Then, there is a group that votes only based on their opinion of who would be the best in office.

All of those groups affect primary outcomes.

National poll results make up one of the factors that goes into some voters' decisions.

[zappaman]

34. Ok. n/t

[Number23]

35. He can't hear you, zap

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=326949&sub=trans



And only four days old, too. So young. So young.

[zappaman]

36. Whoopsie, but at least he got one unsurprising rec.