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HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:44 AM Oct 2015

76% of the people in the new Monmouth Iowa poll were over the age of 50.

Hillary does not have a 41 point lead in Iowa. Two age brackets where Hillary garners most of her support were over sampled. To emphasize this point, only 7% of those polled were between ages 18-34. Does that sound like a representative poll to you?

[link:http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/c83c0429-6c12-47a7-ac86-9bd1beab9bfb.pdf|

24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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76% of the people in the new Monmouth Iowa poll were over the age of 50. (Original Post) HerbChestnut Oct 2015 OP
Truth the polls! nt Dr Hobbitstein Oct 2015 #1
OMG. Not this crap again. moobu2 Oct 2015 #2
so you imagine that 18-49 year olds won't be voting in Iowa? virtualobserver Oct 2015 #3
Look at the pdf yourself. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #4
Thank you! Figured it was something odd... peacebird Oct 2015 #5
Yeah it did seem a bit ridiculous. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #6
The age group thats the most reliable voters you say? workinclasszero Oct 2015 #7
K&R valerief Oct 2015 #8
The age group with the most reliable voters leftofcool Oct 2015 #9
I thought it was hinkey silenttigersong Oct 2015 #10
Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #11
Thank you for confirming the outlier. Teagan Oct 2015 #12
Yea, it' just not one of those online polls that are so scientific. leftofcool Oct 2015 #13
Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2015 #14
Yeah I noticed that! jkbRN Oct 2015 #15
Monmouth University polls rated A- by Nate workinclasszero Oct 2015 #16
That's pretty much how the Iowa Caucuses go. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #17
And that is likely to be close to what the national election will be. nt kelliekat44 Oct 2015 #18
Just like 2008. frylock Oct 2015 #23
BTW, I rec and kick every poll unskewing thread MohRokTah Oct 2015 #19
It's a poll of likely caucus-goers frazzled Oct 2015 #20
What an absolutely sane and rationale response. JaneyVee Oct 2015 #21
Hopefully, in the reality-based community frazzled Oct 2015 #22
Traditionally, caucuses always did skew older, but there was a big-time change bullwinkle428 Oct 2015 #24
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
4. Look at the pdf yourself.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:48 AM
Oct 2015

This is a no brainer. It doesn't even warrant arguing. I only made this thread so people skimming headlines would see how horrible this poll really is.

 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
6. Yeah it did seem a bit ridiculous.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:49 AM
Oct 2015

I think it's fair to expect Hillary to get a boost from the last couple of weeks, but not by that much.

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

 

Teagan

(62 posts)
12. Thank you for confirming the outlier.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:59 AM
Oct 2015

I suspected that this was a very bad poll that needed further digging, and you just confirmed what I suspected. Thank you.

Response to Teagan (Reply #12)

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
17. That's pretty much how the Iowa Caucuses go.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:03 PM
Oct 2015

Unless caucus demographic patterns substantially differentiate from past caucuses, and there's nothing to suggest that will happen, this is typical of the Iowa Democratic Caucus demographic makeup.

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
20. It's a poll of likely caucus-goers
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 12:13 PM
Oct 2015

Not "voters" in the sense that we usually apply to the term. While it may well have underestimated the youth attendance at caucuses, Monmouth is no slouch poller. It rates an A- on 538's ratings of polling firms based on historical accuracy and methodology.

I've attended caucuses before (Minnesota), and I'd have to say my experience back in those days would confirm that caucus attendance tends to skew older. (I myself never attended a caucus until my kids/work/family obligations settled down a bit, when I was in my early 40s, and I had been (and remain) a religious voter who has never missed an election, whether state, local, or federal).

I think that may have changed somewhat, however, since 2007, when Obama was able to get more young voters to the caucuses. So I, too, take this poll with a grain of salt. But I wouldn't dismiss the idea that Clinton has gained substantially in the last weeks.

bullwinkle428

(20,627 posts)
24. Traditionally, caucuses always did skew older, but there was a big-time change
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 02:04 PM
Oct 2015

in 2008 (as you mentioned) when tons of college-aged and 20-somethings came out in support of then-Senator Barack Obama. The Bernie event I attended last week as well as most of his others have been dominated by people in this younger age demographic, so I'm not going to get too freaked out by this latest polling data.

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