2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum76% of the people in the new Monmouth Iowa poll were over the age of 50.
Hillary does not have a 41 point lead in Iowa. Two age brackets where Hillary garners most of her support were over sampled. To emphasize this point, only 7% of those polled were between ages 18-34. Does that sound like a representative poll to you?
[link:http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/c83c0429-6c12-47a7-ac86-9bd1beab9bfb.pdf|
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)moobu2
(4,822 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)This is a no brainer. It doesn't even warrant arguing. I only made this thread so people skimming headlines would see how horrible this poll really is.
peacebird
(14,195 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)I think it's fair to expect Hillary to get a boost from the last couple of weeks, but not by that much.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Goodnight Bernie
valerief
(53,235 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)silenttigersong
(957 posts)400 polled by phone.
Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)
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Teagan
(62 posts)I suspected that this was a very bad poll that needed further digging, and you just confirmed what I suspected. Thank you.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Response to Teagan (Reply #12)
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jkbRN
(850 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Thanks for playing Bernie
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Unless caucus demographic patterns substantially differentiate from past caucuses, and there's nothing to suggest that will happen, this is typical of the Iowa Democratic Caucus demographic makeup.
kelliekat44
(7,759 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)frazzled
(18,402 posts)Not "voters" in the sense that we usually apply to the term. While it may well have underestimated the youth attendance at caucuses, Monmouth is no slouch poller. It rates an A- on 538's ratings of polling firms based on historical accuracy and methodology.
I've attended caucuses before (Minnesota), and I'd have to say my experience back in those days would confirm that caucus attendance tends to skew older. (I myself never attended a caucus until my kids/work/family obligations settled down a bit, when I was in my early 40s, and I had been (and remain) a religious voter who has never missed an election, whether state, local, or federal).
I think that may have changed somewhat, however, since 2007, when Obama was able to get more young voters to the caucuses. So I, too, take this poll with a grain of salt. But I wouldn't dismiss the idea that Clinton has gained substantially in the last weeks.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Do you even know where you are?
frazzled
(18,402 posts)Though some days, it's hard to tell.
bullwinkle428
(20,627 posts)in 2008 (as you mentioned) when tons of college-aged and 20-somethings came out in support of then-Senator Barack Obama. The Bernie event I attended last week as well as most of his others have been dominated by people in this younger age demographic, so I'm not going to get too freaked out by this latest polling data.