2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton just briefly crested 90% likelihood for the Democratic nomination
Last edited Sat Oct 31, 2015, 07:42 PM - Edit history (2)
Predictive markets are breaking heavily for Clinton.
http://www.predictwise.com
Likelihood of nomination:
HRC - 90%
BS - 10%
MOM - 0%
Response to Godhumor (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Now this would constitute an oligarchy, government ruled by the few.
ffr
(22,676 posts)Clever in rebuttal.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)JimDandy
(7,318 posts)You know, the delegates who answer only to Clinton instead of a vote of the people. That Oligarchy.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Dedicated delegates. Sanders has been in Congress for twenty five years, has had much more time to establish a relationship with other congressional members than HRC has had. I would think if Sanders had received the endorsements from super delegates and the super delegates would be what handed him the nomination you would be happy.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)I have always been against the use of Superdelegates.
That was my point: your 25% story was someone's wishful thinking. The reality is Superdelegates can actually overturn the results of a popular majority vote. And these superdelegates ARE the ruling (and nearly always rich) Oligarchy: US Governors, The President and all 450 members of the DNC, including Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Things are as they should be
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)or read on the net. We'll all see soon. Until then, I'm giving it all I got to help get Bernie Sanders the nomination.
What will be, will be...Bernie.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts).... Okay...
How SHOULD they be? And, who informed you of that?
Gman
(24,780 posts)people who are real Democrats. Not like an independent trying to take advantage of a party structure he did nothing to build.
PosterChild
(1,307 posts)Cha
(297,935 posts)Gothmog
(145,794 posts)Biden was always ahead of Sanders on Predictwise because few people really believe that Sanders has a chance of being the nominee. Hillary was as low as 67% on Predictiwise when Biden was in the mix but now the probability is up to 87% to 90%
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)riversedge
(70,417 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Who, if I may ask?
Martin Eden
(12,882 posts)As a matter of fact, you just did.
artislife
(9,497 posts)whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)no really, lol
forest444
(5,902 posts)You're right.
I mean, I still plan to vote for Bernie in the primaries; but I think we all know who the nominee is going to be.
And a half-progressive is always better whatever fascist Armageddon freak emerges from the GOP clown car. Let us never forget that.
stonecutter357
(12,698 posts)thesquanderer
(11,998 posts)Somewhat lower probability that she will be in the oval office, since she still has one more election to win to get there...
KoKo
(84,711 posts)There is honest disagreement among Dems whether this is a good idea or not. It smacks to some as Dynasty. Its an issue that will be brought up down the line.
Nothing to do with an Independent Woman running for President. It's a Legacy Woman running for President and has recognition because she was a First Lady and all the entitled power exactly because of name recognition has to be taken into consideration. Just saying.......Power=Privilege.
azmom
(5,208 posts)riversedge
(70,417 posts)azmom
(5,208 posts)Damn Queen of England. Something more Americana.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)murielm99
(30,780 posts)Blue is her color.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)ffr
(22,676 posts)It only matters the number of those who do vote. People who choose not to vote, don't serve their own best interests or beliefs.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)VOTE, k?
you will be stunned.
and ps...the fact that you seem to delight in the perceived disappointment of others tells me all i need to know.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)But I can't wait to hear the theories about why she wins.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but rigging does have its advantages.....
livetohike
(22,169 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but the collusion of the establishment in the DNC is pretty transparent. They have their candidate picked out already.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And PS I don't delight in the misery of others. I do, however, support my candidate. You'll excuse me if I don't let glib remarks on how she isn't legitimate pass by. The fact that you can't acknowledge that there is more than one worthwhile person running tells me all I need to know about you.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)i said she is being propped up by the establishment and the dnc. it is pretty out in the open.
demosincebirth
(12,550 posts)oasis
(49,455 posts)But until then...
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)To suggest 90% is the oligarch, no it is not going to be government, 90% does not equal oligarchy.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)There is a need to understanding 90% of the people and their votes will not be government by the few.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)those are the ones who desire 90% for hillary imo
so basically, the 1% are hoping with 90% so called odds
so yeah, 1% is an oligarchy
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)thesquanderer
(11,998 posts)It says that HRC has a 90% chance of winning (which, of course, can be done with far fewer than 90% of the votes)
RichVRichV
(885 posts)Or that 90% of the voters will vote for her in the primaries?
You obviously need to read up on what this site is. predictwise FAQ
It's an aggregate site that makes predictions based on multiple sites, most of them have to do with betting and buying stocks on subjects. If you think that's a good representation of the will of the people, all I can say is wow.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)This whole thread is weird.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Be by majority of the electorate college, still would not be government by the few.
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Maybe she will win. But quantity is not quality.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)onecent
(6,096 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Fantasies and cancer cures.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)are using this gambling web site?
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)While I fully realized numbers will wax and wan, I'll enjoy these numbers for now
riversedge
(70,417 posts)rather discouraging few months, I will enjoy them now.
onecent
(6,096 posts)believe in karma, destiny, or ever that things will go as planned...but I would venture to go out on a limb
and say that Hiliary has been destined to be president in 2016 since she was conceived - due to or through what source I KNOW not...but you can take it to the bank.....even though she is a war monger.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)SunSeeker
(51,787 posts)Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)Also had Clinton at 90% in 2008. Predictive markets are heavily influenced by temporary fads.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)stonecutter357
(12,698 posts)SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)under dog wins. Especially when it's by such a large number. Think about it
wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)i like it.
McKim
(2,412 posts)Here comes war and more war. It is sad that a female candidate is so very bellicose. I thought womens values meant Peace, stupid me.
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)The bettors set the likelihood of a striking of the individual mandate (on Intrade, specifically) at about 80%. See "Betting on the future" for an interesting discussion of online prediction markets.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)Would all be giddy if she won.
She won't.
OnlinePoker
(5,729 posts)Because Americans say they want change but keep electing corporate shills who don't give a damn about the well-being of the populace.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)too much of a gentlemen and too much of a true Progressive to beat HRC.... Establishment wins..... I just hope there are no regrets if she loses the GE.... If you think the Rethugs are going to go easy on her .....LOL... Remember she must gain some moderate Independent support to win the GE... Bernie has a message that reaches both sides of the aisle Clinton's appeal to the right side is faced with nothing but hatred so they will tune her out completely at least with Bernie we had a fair shot that some few would at least listen.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)NonMetro
(631 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The only way Hillary loses this if she is indicted for the email stuff... which is a very remote possibility. However, if that happens she drops out and most of her supporters would probably go to Omalley, not Sanders. IMO.
FloridaBlues
(4,013 posts)MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)Hey, does this entertainment value include nose rings?
And also from this site...
A:No, betting money on sports, politics, or anything else is a bad idea. Not only is it losing proposition due to the house's commission, but it is addictive, destructive, and - depending on your location - most likely illegal.
Whew! That's a relief!
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)are two different things. Al Gore is living proof of the lengths the Repukes will go to to install one of their own -- even a brainless moron like the chimp.
Hillary would face a tough fight. She'd have to win over many Bernie voters who find her claims to be on the side of the 99% about as convincing as the average 4-year-old pretending to be Spiderman tonight. She'd have to do extremely well with Independents because Republicans (who reflexively hate all things Clinton) will vote for her opponent, whichever cretin it turns out to be, in great numbers and with considerable enthusiasm.
As has become customary, the election will be fought in a few battleground states where voters will choose between a Democratic corporatist and a Republican uber corporatist.
I am a Democrat and have loyally voted for every Democratic candidate since casting my first vote for McGovern in '72. I will vote for the Democratic nominee on my 64th birthday next November 8th. But if I am marking my ballot for Hillary Clinton, it will be with the other hand firmly holding my nose and the knowledge that the true losers that night will be the millions whose hope for change that favors the masses will be dashed yet again.
Gothmog
(145,794 posts)Predictwise fluctuates a bid during the day. These are still great numbers
Gothmog
(145,794 posts)The CFTC shut down that market because people were playing games at the end by timing purchases and sales to affect the opening and closing prices of the securities/options. For a while the Intrade market was very accurate as to predicting races
Predictwise is new and has mechanism to make it hard or impossible for US citizens to easily buy options or participate in the market
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Flying Squirrel
(3,041 posts)Mark Grable
(23 posts)nine to one odds for real?
that means I put up $100 and you put up $900,
if Bernie wins, I get the $900
if Hillary wins, You get $100
I got the cash, have you?
Gothmog
(145,794 posts)That is a new high http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination
nobody would put their money down back in Nov.