Prediction: Mitt Wins

[lillypaddle]

Talk me down, PULEEZ, I'm freaking out ...


Will Mitt Romney win in 2012?


Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," Bickers said in a press statement.

More at link:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/university-of-colorado-pr_n_1822933.html?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D195989

[calimary]

1. Talk me down, too!

[lillypaddle]

2. I hear ya

back atcha

[Rainngirl]

3. Stop it.

Stop it, both of you! Don't listen to the polls. Don't believe anything you hear on Faux. I will not accept that wooden twit as president. I won't I won't I won't! Start working with your local democratic headquarters. Make phone calls. Get out and register people to vote. Talk to your friends about making sure they're registered and make sure that they know the republicans are counting on us to NOT vote. They are playing a psycho game and are doing everything they think they can get away with to try to disenfranchise voters. DO NOT GIVE UP, damnit! Do not allow apathy in your presence. Talk to like-minded people, who will give you hope. Seriously.

[lillypaddle]

13. I know, I know

But it's such a scary thought ... OMG, President RMoney and Eddie Munster???? Thanks for the boost. I'll try harder to be optimistic. Actually, I was, until I read this.

[Dawson Leery]

4. See this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125175195

[LeftofObama]

5. I predict

that in 2016 that same story will be reprinted to say,

"Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980 with the only exception being in 2012 when, in an embarrassing set back to their forecast model Barack Obama handed Willard Romney his ass."

[lillypaddle]

14. From your mouth

to the Goddess's ears!

[silvershadow]

36. You forgot

"on a platter".

[kayakjohnny]

6. Sounds like a setup to help justify a cheat.

Based on my first impression.

I think Obama is safe for more reasons than I can list right now.

[niyad]

7. well, I just looked at bicker's bio on the cu website, and it doesn't mention a thin about this

predictive model. also, he did not even graduate until 81.

[Vincardog]

8. Agreed: Willard wins the GOP nomination, then he leads the GOP on its' death march to Oblivion. NT

[Lebam in LA]

9. Well I looked into

psychic predictions, and 6 of them said Obama wins.....I like those predictions better

[Freddie]

10. I'm scared too

But any polls that are out there now were taken before the current Akin/Ryan brouhaha which is exposing the extreme woman-hating underbelly of the Repug party. This has got to hurt them and we're *not* going to stop reminding women that a vote for Repugs is a vote for second class citizenship.

[RBInMaine]

28. Being "Scared" is what is WAY wrong with WAY too many liberals. BUCK UP and FIGHT.

[Cleita]

11. Mitt doesn't have a chance.

This time they are wrong. Also, if there hadn't been meddling by Catherine Harris and the Supreme Court in the 2000 election in Florida, Bush wouldn't have won. The 2004 election results were very suspect as well, so those profs are not so correct. Only voter suppression and other tricks will give Mitt the Presidency. I hope those guys aren't factoring in cheating in their model.

[kayakjohnny]

21. Thank you.

I have always liked your posts and this is why.

[progressivebydesign]

12. yet another thread on this?

Calm yourself. Really. find the other threads on this subject and consider deleting yours. The title is hide-worthy as it is.

[lillypaddle]

15. I did look first

Didn't see anything. LInks?

Why would this be "hide worthy?"

[Agnosticsherbet]

16. So I suppose this model was wrong.

Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

I saw a similar story back in 2007 or 2008 saying that it predicted the winner.

This is one of the regular stories published just to make people go apeshit.

[lillypaddle]

17. Well, I must say

They're good at it. I'm apeshit.

[still_one]

18. No surprise huffington would post it first

So they have never been wrong since 1980

And why haven't we heard from them before?

I will only say that the issues are more clear than ever before

If we lose, women become second class citizens, abortion in any form is banned, social security and medicare will be destroyed, the middle class will be gone and coporations will comletely take over the government

However, if every women, senior, progressive, and independent realize their entire future depends on voting democratic, we will win by a landslide

Especially, now that the republicans have exposed themselves for what they truely are

I say they are wrong

[MFM008]

19. Hold ur water

Ok ------while these guys have been correct since 1980, they have given ALL 13 swing states to Romney. I find this potential landslide Dewey/Truman territory. If Obama wins NH we can rest a bit easier . Also there are other electoral maps out there and this is the only one for Romney. Its possible to be wrong and they appear to recalculate each month. Also this doesnt take debates into account. Last Im still going to vote, releasing this seems designed to repress the Obama vote due to temporary insanity or something.
Lets just dry up for the moment......

[renie408]

20. I am predicting Rocky the Squirrel in a landslide. n/t

[Ilsa]

22. If so, KMN. nt

[brooklynite]

23. An economic model doesn't address personal factors...

People don't LIKE Mitt Romney, and don't see him as an acceptable substitute, however much they don't like the President's performance.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

24. My Two Cents...

Other than 2000, the electoral vote hasn't been particularly close in the past thirty years. So successful predictions of this nature are not particularly astounding.

[GallopingGhost]

25. this doesn't freak me out

1.) Every other prediction map I've seen has Obama as the winner

2.) We haven't even had the debates yet, and Obama is an excellent debater.

3.) It's August

Polls, polls, polls, predictions, predictions, predictions.

Hold steady, goodness.

[Speck Tater]

26. Ultimately, people get the government they deserve.

If people are stupid enough to vote for that fool then I guess that's the government they deserve.

[WI_DEM]

27. because of some stupid model? What polls are so bad, exactly?

[TroyD]

29. From Nate Silver:

A Denver Post reporter asked me about this U. of Colorado election model

It's late, so I'll be blunt: I saw their paper and I think there are glaring problems with their methodology.

The U. of Colo. model fits the equivalent of 7 unknowns to 8 elections. That's not a good idea.

The Colo. model also assumes huge effects from unemployment if incumbent is a Dem., but none if he's GOP. Hard claim to defend.

If you want a "fundamentals" model that shows Romney winning, the Hibbs model is a lot more sensible.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[spooky3]

30. Nate Silver has a proven track record.

His comments here make sense and I would trust him more than the U of Colo./U. of Denver authors.

[TroyD]

31. More from Nate Silver:

Also, it's false advertising to claim CU model has predicted the last 8 elections right. It's a new model. Hasn't predicted anything yet.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[GallopingGhost]

32. I agree;

when Silver starts worrying I will.

[left on green only]

33. Just like babes suckling from the teats of Jeanne Dixon

As I remember it, she had an almost 100% record of correctly predicting events after they had already happened.

My brother is a professor (PhD high energy physics), so I can tell you from a life time of experience that many professors are full time fecal orifices. Yesseree, both on the court and off.

Edit to add: If you would like to see the almost universally accepted current version of the electoral dashboard, just go the the Huffington Post, Politics page, but pleaseee don't ever tell anybody that I sent you there. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/politics/

[TeamPooka]

34. I've never heard of tehse guys and their 32 year perfect prediction record so..

I call bullshit.

[TroyD]

35. Nate Silver

That's why I posted the recent comments by Nate Silver highlighting the problems in their methodology.

[Gabby Hayes]

37. Whoa there, the results aren't yet in from the drinking straw poll at the movie theater