Where does a Hillary nomination lead?

[hootinholler]

Let's say for discussion that the invisible thumb of the superdelegates overcomes the popular vote and Hillary is nominated.

This sets 2 things in motion:

First the disaffected vote is lost. Bernie is motivating many who have given up on elections, and those who have never voted. Those votes would evaporate for Hillary.

Second, the Teabag element would be entirely motivated to vote against her and get out the vote bringing all their dirty tricks along.

So let's further say that in the face of that she manages to win a hard fought election by a narrow margin.

Hillary is like crack to the teabaggers. How many days in office will she enjoy before a Benghazi committee on steroids comes knocking at the white house door? I doubt she makes it a week.

Is that a sensible woodchuck's definition of winning?

[hootinholler]

3. I'm unaware of a left teabag movement

Perhaps you can link to an example?

Here's the RW example:

[beam me up scottie]

15. Well they do call Bernie supporters "B-baggers" at that other site.

I'm sure that's where this is coming from.

Their hatred for the left wing of the party is breathtaking.

[artislife]

24. We are just another demographic

that the party thinks it can throw a few crumbs to and we will have to support them. Why is cool that other groups get to say that the party needs to earn their votes but not the Left?

We will not be ignored.

[cantbeserious]

28. Personally - I Am Tired Of Being An Afterthought To The DNC DWS DLC Third-Way Party Establishment

eom

[artislife]

32. Yup nt

[beam me up scottie]

38. If you compare other Dems to tea partiers you're too far to the right.

No wonder Bernie scares them.

[sabrina 1]

63. Ugh! Went there ONCE. It was more than enough. I'm sure you're right about where that came from.

The Third Way hates the Left more than they hate the Right. Because the Left is the only thing standing in the way of their taking over the Democratic Party completely.

[Historic NY]

2. To victory........she beat the GOP twice decisively in Ny for the US Senate.....

people like to underestimate her. They threw everything but the kitchen sink to knock her out.

[hootinholler]

6. I'm not underestimating her

I'm not underestimating what would happen to her in the white house either.

You call that winning?

[VanillaRhapsody]

12. You damn skippy I do!

You think they wouldn't do that to Socialist Sanders?

[wendylaroux]

26. you don't like socialists?

[VanillaRhapsody]

27. I like Democrats...

Socialist Democrats....


and the point stands....you think Republicans would give Sanders (the Socialist) the Kid Glove treatment?

Are you thinking he will get better treatment from Republicans because he is male?

[wendylaroux]

34. so you do like Socialist Democrats....

but not democratic socialists? ok

no,I do not think repubs will give Bernie an easy time.

why would you think I would think because he is male he would get kids gloves?

Do you think they would?

[SidDithers]

44. You do understand they're not the same thing, don't you?...nt

Sid

[wendylaroux]

62. this is Democratic socialists:

Democratic socialists believe that both the economy and society should be run democratically—
to meet public needs, not to make profits for a few.--this is bad?

[artislife]

25. That was before we got to see her as SoS

The left and anti-war section of the party isn't too pleased.

[Historic NY]

37. So what your actually saying its Obamas foreign policy

since he put her in the position.

[840high]

41. She would continue that policy.

[Historic NY]

49. Well right now John Kerry is completing the work....

so I 'd say it pretty presumptuous at this moment.

[Jim Lane]

59. She won twice in a blue state, underperforming the top of the ticket both times

2000:
Gore 60.2%
Bush 35.2%

Clinton 55.3%
Lazio 43.0%


2006:
Spitzer 69.0%
Faso 29.2%

Clinton 67.0%
Spencer 31.0%


She scored a nice win in 2006 but it doesn't shed much light on 2016 prospects. Mayor Spencer had not only committed adultery, not only committed adultery with a city employee, not only committed adultery with a city employee who bore him two children while he was still married to his first wife -- for many voters the real crowning touch was that he had more than doubled his paramour's salary. I mean, boys will be boys, and they don't always keep their pants zipped, amirite, but facilitating your affair with taxpayer money goes a little too far. She can't count on being given such a gift this time around.

[LettuceSea]

65. That's akin to Alabama covering the spread against Vandy

[JaneyVee]

4. The White House.

[HubertHeaver]

5. A rep from Missouri already stated the impeachment proceedings

begin on Day 1.

[Historic NY]

36. lots of blowhards in Congress.

[840high]

43. Maybe so - they would not do this

to Sanders.

[HubertHeaver]

64. This one tipped his hand.

We need a concerted effort to defeat him. Need to make sure he has an opponent next fall.

Something like a 50 state strategy to make sure there is a Democrat in every ballot position. Need to get DWS on that right away.

[msongs]

7. so if bernie is not a sore loser and tells his crowd to vote for hillary, you are saying his

crowd will not? and that a hilllary win instead of the republican winning is some sort of bad thing? hmm

[hootinholler]

9. Many will, but many more will continue to not vote.

So yes I'm saying the people who do not vote now will not turn out for Hillary.

In the big picture, I don't see her being nearly as effective as she could be when a lot of energy is put into defense.

Now your assertion about her being worse that a republican is clearly your assertion. I made no such claim, nor did I intend to imply it.

Why the hmmm? I would like to understand.

[FreakinDJ]

20. We lose a majority of the youth vote for possibly a generation

[eridani]

55. The alienated voter- in his crowd certainly won't--they aren't Democrats and they hate parties

Most regular Dems probably will

[Karma13612]

8. The White House, followed by

a LOT of tears and fears from the middle class who were paying attention.
Those of us who know Bernie is what the middle class needs right now.

I support Bernie all the way.

But, I still am curious what would have happened if Elizabeth Warren had decided to run.

I don't think we would be having these conversations at all.

[zappaman]

10. "Vote for HRC and let the country slide right into fascism"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=6658778

[BootinUp]

30. lol nt

[NanceGreggs]

11. You've started with a highly improbable premise ...

... and now you're trying to build on that flimsy foundation.

Hillary is already way ahead in the popular vote for the nomination, so superdelegates overcoming that vote would be a ridiculous notion.

"Bernie is motivating many who have given up on elections, and those who have never voted."

Despite the fact that BS supporters keep saying this over and over, there is absolutely no evidence to support it - and no, saying "my cousin's nephew's roommate never voted before but he plans to vote for Bernie" is not evidence.

"The Teabag element would be entirely motivated to vote against her and get out the vote."

Whereas the Teabaggers would never come out to vote against a self-proclaimed socialist - right?

"How many days in office will she enjoy before a Benghazi committee on steroids comes knocking at the white house door? I doubt she makes it a week."

I'd love to reply to that bit of nonsense - but I'm laughing too hard to type it!

[hootinholler]

16. I KNOW!

Hillary actually winning the nomination, yeah it's weak I'll give you that.

... and now you're trying to build on that flimsy foundation.

Hillary is already way ahead in the popular vote for the nomination, so superdelegates overcoming that vote would be a ridiculous notion.

The last I checked, there have been no votes cast in the primaries as yet. So how is it she is ahead?

"Bernie is motivating many who have given up on elections, and those who have never voted."

Despite the fact that BS supporters keep saying this over and over, there is absolutely no evidence to support it - and no, saying "my cousin's nephew's roommate never voted before but he plans to vote for Bernie" is not evidence.

No evidence? Yeah it's hard to produce metrics about a demographic that isn't surveyed. But more than anecdotes there are the numbers of donors to the campaign. Conference call crashes due to call volume. Social media shares and other evidence along with that large body of cousin Martha likes Bernie anecdotes.

"The Teabag element would be entirely motivated to vote against her and get out the vote."

Whereas the Teabaggers would never come out to vote against a self-proclaimed socialist - right?

Actually there is evidence that there would be republican cross over for Bernie. I've heard of no republican groups for Hillary at all.

"How many days in office will she enjoy before a Benghazi committee on steroids comes knocking at the white house door? I doubt she makes it a week."

I'd love to reply to that bit of nonsense - but I'm laughing too hard to type it!

I'm always happy to be entertaining.

[NanceGreggs]

23. No votes have been cast ...

... but the poll numbers speak for themselves. And claiming that BS supporters are under-represented in every poll/survey is straw-grasping at its finest.

"Actually there is evidence that there would be republican cross over for Bernie. I've heard of no republican groups for Hillary at all."

Neither have I - but I have seen RW sites urging Republicans to donate to BS and attend his rallies, so as to weaken HRC's campaign. Links to those "calls to action" have been posted here - I guess you missed them.

If you honestly believe that RWers, especially the Teabag contingent, will be rushing out to elect a socialist as POTUS - well, there is that bridge in Brooklyn that I understand might still be for sale.

[hootinholler]

29. Well I calls them the way I sees them...

... but the poll numbers speak for themselves. And claiming that BS supporters are under-represented in every poll/survey is straw-grasping at its finest.

Not really. It's factual the polls are designed to reject unreliable votes by counting either only registered voters or the more restrictive likely voters. A considerable number of Bernie supporters are never sampled.

"Actually there is evidence that there would be republican cross over for Bernie. I've heard of no republican groups for Hillary at all."

Neither have I - but I have seen RW sites urging Republicans to donate to BS and attend his rallies, so as to weaken HRC's campaign. Links to those "calls to action" have been posted here - I guess you missed them.

Thanks for that confirmation, I'll add the anecdote.

If you honestly believe that RWers, especially the Teabag contingent, will be rushing out to elect a socialist as POTUS - well, there is that bridge in Brooklyn that I understand might still be for sale.

Where did I even approach that notion? I think something is happening with straw around here, but it's not my grasping at it.

[NanceGreggs]

50. Well, that's funny ...

... because when the polls were showing Bernie gaining on HRC over the summer, no one was complaining then about their inaccuracy.

Apparently they became "inaccurate" the minute they started reflecting Hillary leaving BS in the dust.

[Thinkingabout]

13. Someone posted here the other day if a state voted lets say for Sanders, then the superdelegates

Would have to follow, no, that is not how it works. In fact the superdelegates are Democratic members of congress as well as other governors, etc. Since the super delegates has to be Democratic then states without full Democratic congressional members and states where the governor is Republican, they would lose votes. For Sanders to get the nomination he would need over 2360 delegates, it does not matter what form the delegates are. Now seriously what states do you expect him to get in order to get this number of delegates. As the polling nation wide is showing Clinton ahead of Sanders and only close in two states, and that is also changing, I hate to be ugly but it is not in the numbers. Even if the 713 super delegates voted for Sanders he would be less than 50%. So blaming or crying about the super delegates is not going to help Sanders. This is not meant to discourage Sanders and his supporters, it is just facts.

[merrily]

14. Cannot reply to a hidden post, so I am posting jury results as a reply to the OP.

The Right Teabag element or the Left Teabag element?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=755097
Comparing liberals on the left to teabaggers is oot, we're supposed to be on the same side, not accusing each other of being akin to the tea party.

JURY RESULTS

The review was completed at Sun Nov 1, 2015, 05:38 PM, and the Jury voted 5-2 to HIDE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Another slam at "far left" policies like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, stopping the permanent war footing, etc.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It's a dumb comment but not disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
Juror #3 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Have you seen the Horseshoe Theory? The horseshoe theory in political science asserts that rather than the far left and the far right being at opposite and opposing ends of a linear political continuum, they in fact closely resemble one another, much like the ends of a horseshoe. The theory is attributed to French writer Jean-Pierre Faye. I happen to agree with this and the poster. The rabid Hillary Haters on this site have the same rabies as Teapartiers. Both are insufferable. However, in the overall scheme of things, Teabaggers are far worse. Hope this is helpful, alerter.
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given

Different people have different views. My own view is that nothing says Republican like lame attempts to shame New Deal Democrats or to characterize them as the "far left," rather than as the traditional Democrats that they so patently are. I get that your results may differ, but, come on.

[Chan790]

17. President Carson.

God help us all.

[JI7]

18. if she loses the popular vote she will lose superdelegates

[Historic NY]

40. What are you talking about....???

One has nothing to do with the other at this point. We're still in primary season I see this all over by the end of March

[JI7]

58. it happened in 2008 as Obama started to win some switched

Superdelegates can take away their support and move to someone else

[charlyvi]

19. Why do you assume Hillary will not win the popular vote?

I'm not willing to accept that at all..she has had garbage thrown at her for 30 years and she is still standing. In fact, she is pulling away from Bernie. If people choose not to vote for her, they don't have to. I don't base my loyalty on that fact. I don't understand though, how anyone could risk a Carson/Trump/Rubio/Bush etc. presidency. If they think Hillary is no better than that bunch, they need to get out of the DU bubble.

[JI7]

21. is there anything to show she is losing the popular vote ?

[Hepburn]

22. Leads to Prez Repuke. n/t

[quickesst]

31. I think this guy....

.....might agree with your assessment of where it leads.

[MADem]

33. To the White House.

What's to stop Sanders from campaigning for Clinton?

I don't think he'd take his ball and go home, particularly if he were interested in a cabinet post.

He'd be a good fit at LABOR. It's totally in his wheelhouse.

[hootinholler]

35. Nothing

But that doesn't mean that his supporters will follow into the polls.

I don't see Bernie making any actions based on what he might gain for himself. My guess is he would reject any cabinet position to stay in the Senate. But that's pure speculation on my part.

[MADem]

51. He's nearing the end of his public life. I don't think anyone in his position would

turn down a cabinet post--it's a public service promotion, directly in the line of succession (tenth) to the Presidency, and he has specific interests that are in that portfolio. Labor is a big piece of what he focuses on in the legislature.

It's a hand-in-glove fit, IMO.

[mcar]

39. To her inauguration

[840high]

45. Seeing your words makes me

very sad.

[SidDithers]

42. "invisible thumb of the superdelegates overcomes the popular vote"...

Sid

[hootinholler]

46. Such gravitas

I really get so much from your analysis Sid.

Thanks for another stellar contribution to the conversation!

[SidDithers]

47. 'bout all your post deserved...nt

Sid

[hootinholler]

48. Magnaminity to boot!

Bravo! Dear Sir. Bravo!

[mythology]

66. Considering you are just blatantly making things up, you should be embarrassed by your post

There is zero evidence that the polling is inaccurate whether because the media is pulling the polling out of their ass or that there is some great unknown swell just waiting to vote for him.

He's polling somewhere between 25 and 30% nationally and drastically less than that in states with high minority populations. He's doing worse after the first debate and after Biden announced he wouldn't run.

This insipid conspiracy nonsense that somehow the super delegates are going to change the result of the primaries just serves to make you look foolish. I get that it's sad that your preferred candidate is unlikely to win the nomination. Mine (Elizabeth Warren) didn't even run. But inventing fact-free scenarios where you're somehow being cheated just makes you look petty.

[tritsofme]

52. In the end, Sanders will maybe win Vermont. The premise of the OP is incredibly silly.

[Metric System]

53. Is this the new talking point? It leads to the White House, Rose.

[Bleacher Creature]

54. I have absolutely no idea what this means.

"Overcomes the popular vote"? She's consistently leading in poll after poll. Feel free to support any candidate you'd like, but when you're essentially reduced to "unskewing" polls, you may want to take a step back and re-assess.

[brewens]

56. People that are burning for a woman to be elected president, any woman no matter what, will

get their wish, or almost. She might not win. We all get more of the same if she does win.

[in_cog_ni_to]

57. Teabaggers will have Impeachment on the table before she's ever sworn in and

they will spend however long and however much of OUR tax dollars investigating every nook and cranny of her personal life, BENGHAZI, her Private Server, her time as SOS, her time in the Senate, her speeches in Canada and the XL Pipeline connections, the donations to the Clinton Foundation and the list goes on and on and on. They will NEVER stop trying to remove her from office.

They WILL IMPEACH her because they can. They have a majority. All it takes is a Simple Majority in the House. They will have the votes because she sure as hell doesn't have the coattails Bernie would have. So, we'll have the first ever HUSBAND AND WIFE PRESIDENTS TO BE IMPEACHED!

Won't that be lovely? That's one for the history books.

The freakin' GOP wasted $80 MILLION on Bill's investigations and impeachment.

My guess is, they have a smoking gun on the server/email issue that they are saving as the impetus to start Impeachment proceedings should the DNC successfully steal the election for her. They WILL Impeach her.

[Jim Lane]

60. Probably true, but the same is true of Sanders

For the RWNJs in the House, his past use of the term "Socialist" will be ample grounds for impeachment right there. The less extreme members will think privately it's a bad idea but will go along out of fear.

The only one who wouldn't be impeached in the first year is O'Malley. He might even last until after the Republican gains in the 2018 midterms, which will embolden them to go after him.

[eridani]

61. To utter mental and physical exhaustion. As a Democrat, I'd first have to work to

--get her elected, and then keep right on the day after the election to keep her and Pete Peterson from fucking with Social Security, to get serious about financial regulation and to counter the permanent war economy. (OK, that last one is going to be there no matter who is elected.)

[ljm2002]

67. I don't think it's a good idea...

...to vote for Hillary Clinton based on the idea that "she's the only one who can win" rather than based on issues.

Similarly, I don't think it's a good idea to vote against Hillary Clinton based on the idea that the Republicans in Congress will waste no time attacking her, should she win the Presidency.

The Republicans in Congress will attack any Democrat (or Democratic Socialist who becomes President. Also, although they are indeed likely to attack her from Day 1, and they may attack her more enthusiastically than they would someone else, it is also true that Hillary Clinton has a lot of experience with them and knows how to deal effectively with those fools (as evidenced by her stellar performance at the latest Benghazi inquis... er, committee). Therefore, I see no advantage among our choices on that basis alone.

[Bernin4U]

68. Bernie CAN do more than Hillary

When Obama came in 2009, he brought with him tons of political capital. So what did he do? He brought in Timothy Geithner and other Wall Street execs, making it clear who his friends were. And who should be surprised? Wall Street donated a record amount to his campaign.

If Bernie wins, he too will bring a lot of political capital. A strong message that the public wants change. Will he get anything and everything he wants? Of course not. But I don't see him being so quick to squander the bully pulpit the way Obama did. Which if you haven't noticed, has been perhaps the biggest disappointment with him. A lot of articles suggest the capital was there, to impose bigger penalties and protections for the banks, even to institute single-payer, but he chose not to take it.

Whereas if Hillary wins, which direction is she more likely to choose? She already told us that the difference between Obama and her is what we see before us. And what political capital will she have? Electing her only sends the message that (1) we're ok with more of the same, or (2) we may have wanted more, but we're too afraid to do anything about it. Either way, it's starting from a position of weakness.

Oh, and the "socialist" thing? Yeah, like that makes any difference. Al Gore, John Kerry, Hillary, Obama, all "socialists" as far as the right are concerned. The Dems could run Mickey Mouse and he'd be the most socialist mouse in the history of the universe.

Bernie won't have an easy time of it, but no worse than the others mentioned. What matters is that he's already proven himself to be a much better fighter than Gore or Kerry were.