Bernie fans, do we really want to emulate Sweden?

[StrongBad]

Because according to a UN report, Sweden is currently on track to become a third world country by 2030:

http://ww.rrojasdatabank.info/HDRP_2010_40.pdf

The reasons cited in the report are a failing welfare state combined with an immigration crisis that compounds the welfare state problem.

[arcane1]

1. I didn't realize we were expected to "emulate" anyone.

But rather to look at other ideas that work and see if we can try them here.

[StrongBad]

2. The entire point is that the ideas proposed don't work.

A bloated welfare state combined with easy access to that state via immigration is a recipe for disaster.

[arcane1]

3. Nobody has proposed "bloating" anything either.

[StrongBad]

4. Of course no one has that intention.

Sweden didn't intend it either. However it is the natural conclusion of a generous welfare system combined with an immigration policy with little restrictions.

[jkbRN]

55. Bernie never said that we should have a welfare state,

You are the one saying that. Also, providing healthcare as a right and college education is not welfare. What planet are you living on?! Srsly. Stop trying to spin a narrative to try to benefit the candidate you are supporting--it comes off as highly pathetic.

[Purveyor]

15. Sounds like we already have... eom

[randys1]

5. What is this source? I would like someone to check this source..

[StrongBad]

6. The United Nations

Heard of it?

[randys1]

7. the link goes directly to the United Nations?

[StrongBad]

9. It is a pdf of the actual UN report.

Pretty clear when you click on it.

[randys1]

10. NOt gonna touch it, I am fussy that way, no idea who r rojas is

[Bluenorthwest]

20. From page 4 of the 'Actual UN report':

"The findings, interpretations and conclusions are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of UNDP or United Nations Member States. Moreover, the data may not be consistent with that presented in Human Development Reports."

This is among other things, not a report, it is a hypothetical model. It is also not UN opinion, and it does not reach the conclusions you claim that it does.

[StrongBad]

23. See page 45.

[randys1]

51. THis is a common tactic elsewhere, link to a source that is not credible which then links

to stats that are credible, then come to a wild ass conclusion

[think]

8. Perhaps you'd like to cite a few specific examples and statements from your source.

[randys1]

11. The allegation is that the United States has an open door immigration policy with no

restrictions and a huge safety net that is very generous.

We have neither so this is kind of a moot point.

[StrongBad]

26. Yeah we're really tough on illegal immigration

And yes we don't have a bloated welfare state yet, but Bernie wants to emulate Swedens.

[randys1]

50. You are so wrong I dont know where to begin

[UglyGreed]

12. I don't know about Sweden

but with 16 million kids in poverty and growing we ain't doing too well ourselves.

More than 16 million children in the United States – 22% of all children – live in families with incomes below the federal poverty level – $23,550 a year for a family of four. Research shows that, on average, families need an income of about twice that level to cover basic expenses.

[beam me up scottie]

13. Are you worried about immigration and becoming a "welfare state"?

Right wing talking points much?

[leveymg]

14. I call Bullshit. There are 3 references to Sweden in the Appendices, none in the text. What's your

point other than to be a pseudo-scientific propagandist for the RW?

[StrongBad]

16. It's a multi country study of HDI trends.

Swedens HDI is predicted to reach third world levels by 2030, as indicated in the study.

[leveymg]

19. Give us a single quote to that effect, or go elsewhere.

If you want to extrapolate from data, do so, but make a reasoned argument or leave us.

[StrongBad]

21. Page 45. See HDI projection chart.

[Bluenorthwest]

42. It is not a study of trends....it is a hypothetical model. From page 6 of the text you link...

The projections suggest a possible future for the progression of HDIs, but are not
designed to be predictive as changes in conditions and policies will impact a particular
country’s HDI.

You: 'Swedens HDI is predicted to reach'
Them: 'Projections not designed to be predictive'

Not designed to be predictive. So it's not predicting. See how that works?

[Bluenorthwest]

17. I suggest that you have no idea what you are looking at with that report. Sweden is mentioned

just once in the paper, on a list of cohort nations which includes the United States, Canada and all of Europe, Australia, Japan....you get it.
Now what part of the material do you use to reach the conclusion you have reached here? It's not in the paper, which is about entirely different things. This is a hypothetical cohort model, the work of two authors and not even a UN position, but aside fro that what exactly are you on about?

[StrongBad]

24. See page 45 for conclusions

[leveymg]

27. Page 45, Figure 3 shows no such thing. Make your quote or point now.

[StrongBad]

30. Decline of HDI by 2030. See the numbers next to Sweden.

I may have been a page or two off

[Bluenorthwest]

29. I asked YOU to cite the language YOU use to support the conclusion you have made.

You have not done so.

[StrongBad]

31. The entire study described the methodology.

[Bluenorthwest]

36. That's not what I have asked of you. You are stating conclusions the authors are not making at all

so I am asking you to show us how you are employing their data to support your conclusions. My question is not about the 'study' it is about your own writing about it.

[StrongBad]

39. Do you know what HDI is?

This is too simple to explain.

HDI is a measure of development.

This study is claiming Swedens HDI measurement will decline to third world levels by 2030.

Page 45 shows this chart of projections for many countries including Sweden.

[Bluenorthwest]

45. And yet you have not done what I asked. Do you understand what 'not designed to be predictive'

means? The authors of this study very clearly state that it is not designed to be predictive, it is making no claims about what will happen which is the whole of your claim, the predictive nature of a work the authors take pains to say is not predictive in nature.

[Bjorn Against]

18. I scrolled through that report and it does not seem to say what you claim

Please quote where it claims that Sweden will be a third world nation because I sure did not see that claim, in fact Sweden is barely mentioned in the report.

[StrongBad]

22. Page 45

[Bjorn Against]

33. Page 45 does not say anything which you claimed in your OP

Nowhere on page 45 does it say Sweden will be a third world nation nor does it say anything about their "welfare state" or immigration which you specifically claimed the report cited. Please stop lying about what the report says.

[StrongBad]

34. Look at the declining HDI projections.

[Bjorn Against]

38. Where does it say those declines will turn it to a third world nation?

And where does it say anything about Sweden's welfare state or immigration policies? You specifically claimed the report cited these things, either provide a quote or stop lying.

[StrongBad]

41. A certain level of HDI designates it as such.

Look at the other countries with the same projected Swedish HDI in 2030.

[Bjorn Against]

46. .906 is not third world status

And I ask once again, where does the report mention Sweden's "welfare state" or their immigration policies?

You explicitly claimed the report cited these things, either quote where the report says anything about those issues or stop lying.

[daybranch]

25. are you a Trump supporter?

sound just like him. We cannot afford democracy and its blessings because it might attract immigrants? sounds ok to me.

[Live and Learn]

32. I guess Sweden now joins Denmark under the bus.

Hillary supporters are just making friends everywhere.

[PowerToThePeople]

35. Complete bullshit.

I read nothing about Sweden ever being worse off than America in that paper.

Go away.

[StrongBad]

37. That's because it's a scientific paper not sensational media.

See page 45 and Swedens declining HDI projection.

[PowerToThePeople]

40. .906

I can read. Still very much a first world rating.

Go away.

[StrongBad]

43. Heh. Nice standards you got there.

[PowerToThePeople]

44. Higher than usa in th 80s.

Wtf are you getting at here?

[markpkessinger]

58. Yes, there is a lower HDI projection for Sweden, but NOWHERE IN THE REPORT DOES IT SAY . . .

. . . that it is due to immigration or a "failed welfare state." What's more, the origin of this claim is not the report itself, but is from a website named speisa.com, a right-wing, German website that is notorious for posting bullshit that appeals to Swedish racists. Here's a link to the original: http://speisa.com/modules/articles/index.php/item.454/sweden-to-become-a-third-world-country-by-2030-according-to-un.html#at_pco=smlwn-1.0&at_si=54cbc4743d66dadc&at_ab=per-2&at_pos=0&at_tot=1 .

What's more, the report contains disclaimers indicating that it is NOT predictive, that it is a mathematical model to analyze trends. From page 2 of the report:

The projections suggest a possible future for the progression of HDIs, but are not designed to be predictive as changes in conditions and policies will impact a particular country’s HDI. Further, unanticipated “shocks,” such as war, economic sanctions, epidemics, and environmental calamities may negatively impact the HDI, while other shocks such as cures for prevalent diseases such as malaria and HIV/AIDS, end of conflict, sudden dramatic investments in and take up of education, can positively impact a country’s HDI. Thus, the projections should be interpreted as what might occur based on a past global experience with HDI growth, not a normative suggestion as to what will occur.

Your OP didn't merely assert a lower projected HDI; your OP claimed that the report cited "immigration and a failed welfare state" as its causes. It does not cite the specific causes for Sweden, nor for any other country's change in HDI. And that's where the utter dishonesty of your post lies.

Now, as for the reliability of this predictive model itself, I did a little number crunching of my own. The same table in the report that provides projected HDI for 2030 also contains a column containing projected HDI for 2015 (the report is dated from 2010). So I took the top-ranking 25 countries, ranked based on their projected 2015 HDI and tossed them into a spreadsheet. Then, I went tot the U.N.'s HDI site to see how actual numbers and rankings compared with the top-ranking 25 HDI countries based on the most recent data available for the actual HDI for those countries. 2015 data isn't yet available, but 2014 data is. And if the model is at all accurate, the numbers should be pretty close to the numbers projected for 2015, or at least trending in the same direction. Here's how the projected 2015 HDIs stack up against the actual HDI figures for 2014:



I've highlighted Sweden in red. (The countries in italics are countries that were projected by the report you cited to be in the top 25 of HDI rankings in 2015, but are not in the top 25 as of 2014; those in boldface are countries that are in the top 25-ranked countries as of 2014, but were not projected to be among the top 25 in 2015 by the report you cite.) So Sweden, predicted in the report you cite was projected to rank 25th in 2015. As of 2014, it ranked 12th. And a quick look many of the other countries in the table above shows that, assuming 2015 numbers will likely be fairly close to those of 2014, the model would appear to be utterly unreliable as a accurate predictor of HDI trends. So that pretty well shoots your theory that Sweden is "on track to become a third world country by 2030:"

Finally, I could address the issue of online ethics, and lifting direct quotes from other sources without attribution (your sentence, "Sweden is currently on track to become a third world country by 2030, was lifted directly from the Speisa article), but since you've already embarrassed yourself with this OP, I'll spare you that.

[whatchamacallit]

47. No, we want

the greatest wealth disparity and income inequality, the most expensive and least effective healthcare, the highest rate of child poverty, the most indebted citizenry, and the largest prison population of any western democracy. Of course. Take a hike.

[phleshdef]

48. I'd like us to emulate several aspects of several other countries who do particular things better.

[frylock]

49. Better luck tomorrow.

[Kalidurga]

52. Meanwhile many parts of our nation are already there.

[jfern]

53. Obviously we will go down our own path

We can look at how other countries have done with systems, and take some of their ideas, but we will end up with our system.

[jkbRN]

54. Stop taking things out of context,

Bernie has always said, "there are things we can learn from Sweden, Denmark, etc" he never said we should "emulate" them.

[NorthCarolina]

56. "Looking at what works" is not "emulating". "Emulating" is your word, not Sanders. eom

[Rosa Luxemburg]

57. I like Sweden!