What Polling Indicates after Two Debates is Clear - A Prediction

[MineralMan]

National polling after the first and second debate make one thing crystal clear:

Hillary Clinton has a solid 2:1 advantage over Bernie Sanders that is holding. It is my opinion that such a lead cannot be overcome and will remain in place through the end of 2015 without any significant change.

Prediction: This primary campaign is over. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President with a 2:1 margin, at least, holding through the March 1 super Tuesday caucuses and primaries. At that point, Bernie Sanders will withdraw from the race and endorse Clinton for the general election. Then, the campaign for the general election will begin in earnest, although Clinton has really already started that campaign.

Disclaimer: That is my personal opinion. It's based on over 50 years of following Presidential elections. I'm making it today, based on polling trends and results after two primary debates and other factors. Your opinion might differ from mine, but my opinion is now on the record, for whatever that's worth.

[Dawgs]

1. There was a second debate that people actually watched?

When?

[riversedge]

16. Nov 17, This is a POST-2nd debate poll: Clinton, 57, Sanders 26, O'M 2%

The second debate made no difference....

X-posted from :
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=821123



Nov 17, This is a POST-2nd debate poll: Clinton, 57, Sanders 26, O'M 2%

http://morningconsult.com/2015/11/terror-attacks-spotlight-voters-growing-security-concerns/



.............Sanders challenges Clinton only with the youngest set of voters; among those between the ages of 18 and 29, Sanders and Clinton are tied at 43 percent. Clinton leads by wide margins among liberals (57 percent to 32 percent), Hispanic voters (52 percent to 38 percent) and African Americans (80 percent to 8 percent), the bedrocks of a Democratic primary electorate.

Democratic voters who cite national security as their most important issue trust Clinton much more than the broader electorate: Those voters favor the former Secretary of State by a 61 percent to 13 percent margin.

The survey continues to find President Obama’s approval ratings struggling. Just 41 percent of Americans say they approve of the job he is doing as president, while 30 percent say the country is headed in the right direction.

The Morning Consult tracking poll surveyed 2,001 registered voters between Nov. 13 and 16 for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Subsamples of 774 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and 874 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents carry margins of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points, respectively.

[Dawgs]

26. You just proved my point.

Nothing changed in the polls because no one watched, or even knew there was a debate.

[upaloopa]

33. More than 8 million watched

Not as much as the first debate but still 8 million is larger than nobody.
Your point is not proven. But any shelter in the rain I guess

[riversedge]

34. It is BECAUSE people watched that there was NO change.

[Dawgs]

36. I'm sorry. You're right.

Hillary is the most qualified candidate of our lifetime. She will have no problem beating the idiots on the right.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/11/09/heres-hillary-clintons-big-2016-challenge-in-one-chart/

Unmarried women, minorities, and particularly millennials are less interested in next year’s voting than seniors, conservatives, and white non-college men are.

[still_one]

101. really, no married women, minorities, and millennials will vote for the Democratic nominee if it is

Clinton?

I will bookmark this and check back in a year to see if that assessment is correct.

[Dawgs]

2. I think you're correct, but that means President Cruz or President Rubio for four years.

And, the consequences are gonna be bad for a long time.

[SecularMotion]

3. You forgot to add a disclaimer

[Dawgs]

7. Nope. Although I should have added that Democrats will take huge losses in Congress as well.

Kind of hard to win if you don't have the votes.

[1StrongBlackMan]

78. Why add the disclaimer, when ...

all one has to do is pretend they didn't make the statement, once it proves incorrect?

[Dawgs]

116. Which will never happen.

I don't think she can win. If she does win I'll admit I was wrong.

[1StrongBlackMan]

117. Unless something radically changes, I guess we will see. Huh? n/t

[Dawgs]

121. My prediction is that Hillary will win the nomination and lose the GE.

Yes, we will see.

[1StrongBlackMan]

122. My prediction ...

HRC will win the Democratic Primary (not my desired outcome) and win in the G/E.

[Dem2]

20. Not sure how Bernie would have changed this

Enthusiasm? Not sure it would be there with rank-and-file Democrats after a withering assault on Bernie's weaknesses, which haven't been put under a microscope nationally like Hillary's have.

[redstateblues]

76. all those down ballot socialists

won't ride Bernie's coattails into the majority

[Dem2]

81. It's not an unfair consideration n/t

[Orangepeel]

22. She might lose, but so might anyone else

My preference is O'Malley, because I think he was an excellent governor and would make an excellent president. But if he can't win the primary, he probably couldn't have won the general.

That goes for Sanders as well. The only way he could win the general is if a substantial number of disaffected voters come out and vote for him. If he gets that to happen in the primary, maybe it can happen in the general. If he can't, then he would have lost anyway.

[Dawgs]

23. Don't disagree. n/t

[brooklynite]

27. You were saying?

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 56, Trump 41 Clinton +15
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Carson 48, Clinton 50 Clinton +2
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 50, Rubio 45 Clinton +5
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 52, Bush 44 Clinton +8
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 53, Cruz 43 Clinton +10
General Election: Fiorina vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 53, Fiorina 43 Clinton +10

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article43727049.ece/BINARY/Poll%20details

[Dawgs]

30. First presidential election, huh? n/t

[Buzz Clik]

37. Wait, wait, wait. Sanders is not polling very high among the Dems, but he is our only hope to win?

Please explain how that works.

[Dawgs]

38. Obama wasn't either at this time 8 years ago, so that argument is stupid.

That's how.

But, this might be your first time following presidential elections so maybe I should give you a break.

[Buzz Clik]

41. It is my first election. Thank you. Do you mind if I just follow you around?

It's clear I could learn much from you.

But, let's get back to the point: If Clinton gets nominated, that means that Bernie didn't poll very high among Democrats. And my question was, "So, if Bernie cannot poll very high among Democrats, he is our only hope to beat the Republicans? Please explain how that works."

Clearly you know A WHOLE LOT about elections that I simply don't understand. Could you explain for me how the loser in the Democratic primaries is our best hope in the general election?

[treestar]

115. I've seen the claim that

Bernie could get the Greens and the Independents and some cross over Republicans. Which is why, apparently, the Democrats should vote for him. Apparently the Democrats are not falling for this argument.

[kjones]

71. The flu doesn't poll too well either, but that doesn't mean it will ever be president...

[Dawgs]

72. Not sure how that relates to anything I said, but okay. n/t

[kjones]

73. Uh huh...

Someone: "Bernie's not polling well, how will he win?"
You: "Obama wasn't polling well either, what's that prove?"
Me: "Yeah, but (insert whatever) isn't favored either, so what's that prove?"

You're trying to use your skepticism of polls to argue that you believe that
low polls indicate...something? (That Bernie will somehow win?)
I'm pointing out the ridiculousness of it.

What I'm not sure of is how people can criticize the veracity of polls, but then
feel some sort of confidence that they can tell something about the primary
because of low polls...or something. Honestly, I'm confused by a lot of the
logic I see on here nowadays.

[stevenleser]

98. Yes Obama was. At this point 8 years ago he pulled even with Clinton in Iowa. Bernie is cratering.nt

[Major Hogwash]

106. That's true, and they had already held 14 debates by this time back in 2008.

And they wound up holding a total of 26 debates before it was all over.
And, as everyone knows, Obama kicked Hillary's ass in 2008.

[red dog 1]

45. President Rubio is a distinct possibility (God help us)

but President Carson is more likely, since he leads the GOP pack, and is tied with HRC in the latest NBC News//Wall Street Journal poll:
"Ben Carson Is GOP's Best Choice To Beat Hillary Clinton In 2016 Poll"
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-ties-carson-16-matchup-tops-other-gop-candidates-n456776

According to this poll, HRC leads Marco Rubio 47 percent to 44 percent, though that's well within the poll's margin of error of plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.

She leads Jeb Bush by only 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent

But the poll shows that she beats Donald Trump by 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent.

I guess that means that we should be rooting for Trump to beat Carson in the GOP primaries.

[Dawgs]

46. I actually think that Cruz has a good shot to win the presidency.

And, not because anything his democratic opponent would do. I think his message of getting rid of agencies that many Americans hate will go a long way with voters.

[Beacool]

47. Sure, because Sanders would be more electable in the ge.

Please..........

[Dawgs]

64. He would be.

He will get all of the Democrats that Hillary will get, plus many more that she wouldn't.

[redstateblues]

77. I doubt it. Why is he polling so low?

a socialist in the GE would energize the republicans

[TransitJohn]

97. Hillary in the GE will energize the Republicans

Hope you're ready for the country to go down the shitter. Hope I'm wrong.

[Dawgs]

114. Why was Obama polling so low exactly 8 years ago?

And, I'm not afraid of what the republicans will do.

[TransitJohn]

96. Yeah.

Can you imagine the loons Rubio or Cruz will nominate for the likely 4 SCOTUS positions? We're fucked.

[still_one]

102. Oh, so then you don't believe ANY of the Democratic candidates can win in the General election I

guess.

[Dawgs]

113. No, I don't believe that. n/t

[Cosmocat]

108. Aw bullshit

As much as you have ginned yourself up to believe that, she is a better than even odds to be POTUS ...

[Dawgs]

112. Today, yes. n/t

[Hekate]

4. And brains will explode all over DU at that point... But I agree with your analysis.

[NurseJackie]

17. Heads. Heads will explode.

[Goblinmonger]

5. "Clinton Sustains Huge Lead in Democratic Nomination Race" Gallup.com

From November of 2007.

In the national standings of the Democratic presidential candidates seeking their party's nomination next year, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to hold a strong 27-point lead over second-place rival Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, according to a new Gallup Poll. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards remains further behind in third place.

According to the Nov. 11-14, 2007, poll, 48% of Democrats say they are most likely to support Clinton for the party’s presidential nomination in 2008, followed by Obama at 21% and Edwards at 12%. No other candidate garners more than 4% support.

She had more than a 2:1 lead over Obama at this point in 2007.

In your 50 years of following Presidential elections, how did you forget these numbers from the last time Hillary won.

[peacebird]

18. ^^^this ^^^ plus, if Clinton gets the nom we WILL lose in the general election

[riversedge]

35. Sorry but Sanders is no Obama.

[Hekate]

39. No kidding

[Dawgs]

40. True, but Hillary is still Hillary. n/t

[Beacool]

48. Yes, she is, and Hillary won the votes of almost 18M people.

Obama won because he had a small pledged delegate advantage. Although he still needed the support of super delegates to cross the finish line.

[bigtree]

6. you've already declared support for Hillary

...this analysis is self-serving and reeks of the type of horse-race politics we can find on any cable news network. It's both boring and manipulative.

[MineralMan]

58. So what? The prediction is based on

other facts than my support.

But thanks for your comment.

[bigtree]

94. fact

...the primary is not over.

[whatchamacallit]

8. A "crystal clear" prediction followed by a disclaimer

lol.

[MineralMan]

59. A disclaimer that it was my opinion does not

take away from the prediction. It just identifies it as an opinion. Every prediction by anyone is an opinion, frankly.

You're free to ignore it, of course.

[Sancho]

9. I agree entirely...

and I would add what social scientists call "triangulation" or "validity".

Hillary is on a record pace to gain endorsements from politicians, unions, and social leaders. In 2007, this was a split with Obama - and important endorsements by Kennedy and popular celebraties like Oprah helped put Obama ahead by the smallest margin. There's no similar competition here. That supports your prediction.

Hillary continues to get donations and support in the polls from the demographics that would have been predicted a couple years ago before the first survey call went out: women, immigrants, and minorities are her base. That validates the polls and prediction.

Hillary continues to raise money from both small individual donors and large hitters who support Democrats. She has appeal across the board, which also is important in a GE election (if you want to win).

The Super Delegates are committing to Hillary in droves. This is another predictor of a winner. Even if the general population was at a ball game and missed the last debate, you can be confident that the Super Delegates are watching the candidates, especially if they are not committed. Hillary is winning them over.

The only thing that could derail Hillary now is an unpredictable event that changed the dynamics. If anything, the current state of the world and economy play into Hillary's strenghts. As long as that is the focus for the next 6 months, the primary will be over before it begins.

I would say your prediction is a good one, and based on the empirical evidence.

[yardwork]

10. Looks that way. Who do you think will get the Republican nomination?

I'm thinking that it could actually be Trump. I fear Rubio and Kasich.

[NCTraveler]

13. Not that you asked me, but I think it will be Rubio or Kasich.

If that is the case I think Rubio would be our best bet to go against.

[NurseJackie]

19. I agree.

Rubio would be such a lightweight (mental and otherwise) and easy for Hillary to handle him.

Kasich may be more formidable, but less likely to get the GOP base as excited as mental giants like Ben Carson.

Looks like a win/win to me.

[Cosmocat]

109. NO ...

Rubio is worst case scenario ...

He has the looks and while he isn't the sharpest tool in the shed, they will pretty him up like they did Bush II, the republicans will say he is a STAR and their whore media fuckwits will breathlessly regurgitate that.

He will NOT be looked at critically, just as Bush II wasn't, and he has all the superficial qualities ...

I want nothing to do with him as their nominee.

[Dawgs]

24. If Republicans were smart they would pick Cruz. n/t

[Beacool]

50. I think than when all is said and done that it'll probably be Rubio.

Trump and Carson are just too nutty.

[Cosmocat]

110. I have had the feeling since late summer

I don't think Carson can win the nomination, too many negatives - truly uninformed and unqualified, but while that obviously isn't a rule out for team R, that coupled with his lack of political chops and skin tone ...

Trump COULD pull it off, but I tend to think if any of the more traditional candidates get air under them it will be Rubio, and I want NOTHING to do with him in a general ...

[MineralMan]

61. Hard to say. Republicans are unpredictable.

If I had to guess, I'd say Rubio, but that wouldn't be a prediction. It would just be a guess. There is no data to support it as a prediction.

[azurnoir]

11. good luck with that

[MineralMan]

62. It has nothing to do with luck.

I have nothing at risk. It has to do with how people vote in the primaries. If I'm right, I'll be right. If not, then I'll admit that I was wrong. It's just a prediction.

[NCTraveler]

12. I still think Sanders is in it until the convention.

Numerous aspects of his campaign make it clear he is about getting the message out, not getting out the vote.

[NurseJackie]

21. Probably so.

Although, once the math shows that he has no path to capture the nomination, it's unclear to me why he'd want to hang on.

Perhaps in the hopes that he'll continue to shape the conversation? Perhaps out of respect to those who have donated their time and money? Will what's left of the campaign be a vanity-tour about Bernie Sanders? Will it be wound-licking and sour-grapes?

I can see that it would serve no useful purpose, other than to delay whatever "healing" or "reconciliation" process that may happen among the non- "Bernie-or-Bust" brigade.

Time will tell what his priorities become. I remain optimistic, but realistic enough to avoid false hope.

[Renew Deal]

29. The only way is if he wins some states

If he loses all of the first 4, it's over.

[procon]

14. Much to my own disappointment, I have reached the same conlusion.

Initially I hoped to see Sanders do much better against the old guard than he has, but as the months go by and he still hasn't been able to move the needle and the polls have not shifted in his favor, the handwriting is on the wall. He's just not capturing enough voter interest to be competitive. As much as I might cling to the diminishing hope that he can still pull a rabbit out of his hat, the reality doesn't look good for his campaign

It's more like he's part of a movement promoting the income inequality message that swirled into public notice with OWS. He's certainly a passionate spokesman with a worthwhile message and I'd like to see more noteworthies picking up the discussion. However, as dedicated as Sanders is, he's just so narrowly focused its difficult to tweeze out the viability of all the other important policies that a well rounded presidential contender needs to present.

[libdem4life]

25. As a Bernie supporter, I, too, have been bewildered by his narrow scope. Add the age issue to that

and it will take a miracle.

Clinton has a formidable grasp on policy, name recognition, political experience and soothing speaking prowess. But can she win? Her unfavorable ratings may outweigh in the General. Still a long time and the Republicans have yet to decide.

Of course, I'll vote for her in the GE, but wining the Presidency? Doubtful.

[tularetom]

42. Soothing speaking prowess?

You have to be shitting me. She's harsh grating and extremely condescending.

[libdem4life]

43. No, she has the Speech Demeanor down pat.

The condescending part goes along with it. Harsh and grating...depends on the listener.

[Gothmog]

15. Even is Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will not be the nominee

The Super Tuesday primaries will settle this race

[KingCharlemagne]

118. my prediction is a super Tuesday split. it will come

Down to California where Hillary's support among Latin's currently gives her the edge.

MEMO to Sanders campaign: the time to begin outreach to Latin's was yesterday!

[Renew Deal]

28. It is not a prediction. It is a snapshot of current opinion.

It can predict today's election. It can't predict an election several months away.

[99Forever]

31. It IS your personal opinion. Period.

No matter how deep into denial you live.

[MineralMan]

63. As I made quite clear in the OP.

Of course it's my opinion, based on criteria I chose.

[misterhighwasted]

32. MM's opinion here is my opinion also.

One of the other candidates will be gone by Feb 8th.

Great piece & yes HRC is already moving her campaign focus towards Nov 2016.

^H^

[Gman]

44. You're exactly right

I've been thinking the same for about a month. And this last feebate pretty much ices It. Sanders is capped at his 30–35%. You're not very far on a limb on this one.

[Romulox]

49. Who could've guessed that our "Ex" Freeper would support the more conservative candidate???? nt

[NurseJackie]

52. What does this even mean?

[MineralMan]

66. I think it means that he disagrees with my prediction,

and dislikes me.

[KingCharlemagne]

119. Even though I support Sanders, I alerted on it. Way, way below the belt, imo - nt

[MineralMan]

57. I don't know, but I could have guessed that

you'd post something like that in this thread. Thanks for kicking the thread.

[Romulox]

60. Someone just emerging from a coma could've predicted you'd advocate for the Status Quo. nt

[MineralMan]

65. And thanks for the additional kick,

despite the insult.

[Romulox]

67. Thanks for not disputing the plain facts. nt

[bunnies]

51. Bookmarked.

For the next time you guys deny doing this kind of thing. Carry on.

[MineralMan]

53. I have it bookmarked, too.

I'll repost it when my prediction comes true.

[bunnies]

55. Its not a prediction. Its a statement.

This primary campaign is over.

[MineralMan]

56. Uh, my post had a lot more words in it than that

single sentence. It was a prediction.

[bunnies]

68. But that single sentence is the one you guys are constantly denying making.

Hence my interest in it.

[NurseJackie]

70. Two can play that game. You also "wrote" …

Bernie Sanders … is holding … {and} … will be the Democratic … President with a 2:1 margin … based on … 50 … elections … and other factors … for whatever that's worth.

[MineralMan]

86. Nice! Words are cool. You can purchase them together in

So many ways.

[Attorney in Texas]

54. What 2007 Polling Indicates after Two Debates is Clear - A Wrong Prediction

National polling after the first and second debate in 2007 make one thing crystal clear:

Hillary Clinton has a solid 2:1 advantage over Barack Obama that is holding. It is my opinion that such a lead cannot be overcome and will remain in place through the end of 208 without any significant change.

Prediction: This primary campaign is over. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President with a 2:1 margin, at least, holding through the March 1 super Tuesday caucuses and primaries. At that point, Barack Obama will withdraw from the race and endorse Clinton for the general election. Then, the campaign for the general election will begin in earnest, although Clinton has really already started that campaign.

Disclaimer: That is my personal opinion. It's based on over 42 years of following Presidential elections. I'm making it today, based on polling trends and results after two primary debates and other factors. Your opinion might differ from mine, but my opinion is now on the record, for whatever that's worth.

[stevenleser]

99. Nope. At this point 8 years ago Obama had pulled even with Hillary in Iowa. Sanders is going in the

opposite direction in Iowa, New Hampshire and everywhere else.

[Attorney in Texas]

123. Really?

[Logical]

69. And I will have to be drunk as hell to vote for her! nt

[MineralMan]

87. Drink up, then.

Every vote counts.

[Logical]

95. I will always vote for the DEM over any GOPer. But maybe not happy about it. nt

[frylock]

74. Disclaimer: Zero fucks.

[MineralMan]

75. Thanks for the kick!

[frylock]

80. I'll kick it again since it seems really important to you.

[MineralMan]

82. It's not important at all.

I'm amused that people take the time to come and insult me. I'm easily amused, I guess. Please proceed.

[quickesst]

79. I think you will find.....

... that the only argument anyone has against your logic is to compare Bernie Sanders 2016 to President Obama 2008. I still haven't figured out how anyone can make that comparison, and find it credible.

[MineralMan]

84. Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama.

Not even close. It's hilarious that people continue to make that comparison. It's not even on my radar as I look at this election year.

Obama is probably the most charismatic President since JFK. Sanders? Not even close.

[LuvLoogie]

103. Tied with Bill.

I have to give Bill his due.

[lunamagica]

83. K&R. I agree with you. eom

[MineralMan]

85. Thanks. Many people do.

On DU, though, not so much. But DU isn't the group that will decide.

[sadoldgirl]

88. It is a present evaluation,

do you know how many things can change in this
world and country until the primaries?

BTW: Bernie is no Obama, but Hillary is even
less so.

[MineralMan]

89. Indeed it is. I stand by my prediction.

If it turns out to be wrong, I will post an OP saying so. I do not believe I will have to do that, but you'll be welcome to ridicule me if I do

[DCBob]

90. Also what is clear to me is that more debates would not help Bernie.

Seems he loses ground after each one so far.

[MineralMan]

91. People grow weary of debates.

Each will have fewer viewers than the previous one.

[DCBob]

92. By the way, I totally agree with your assessment of the situation.

Bernie may have had an opening back a month or so ago but it quickly closed. It appears to be over now.

[MineralMan]

93. So it seems.

[stevenleser]

100. This is why the claim that 4-6 debates wasn't enough was silly.

People can figure out in one or two debates whether one or more candidates merits a rethinking of for whom they will vote.

In fact after the first debate, folks coalesced behind Hillary because she seems so much more Presidential and she knows the issues better than anyone else and so her positions seem much better thought out.

[LuvLoogie]

104. It seems she has always been like that.

Have you read her Wellesley speech?

[Cosmocat]

111. They always were part of the denial

I live Bernie and am voting for him, but he always faced L O N G odds getting past Hill ...

[Alfresco]

105. I concur ...

with your reasoned, logical opinion.

[Cosmocat]

107. Yep

Unless Hillary does something truly disastrous, and I am not talking like the literal 100s of other bullshit things people scream about, I mean something truly vile, Bernie has maxed out ...

I like him, and wish it would be different, we really could use something different LIKE HIM - smart, tough, right on the issues mostly.

But, people are people, and he just is running against someone who has far too much name recognition and support.

[KingCharlemagne]

120. Good analysis of current state of affairs. I predict you will

see the needle move after the holidays when Americans tune in on the politics frequency en masse.

However, the needle could move further in HRC's direction then.

[Gothmog]

124. It will be over by Super Tuesday