Gallop: "Clinton Sustains Huge Lead in Democratic Nomination Race"

[Attorney in Texas]

Wow! Clinton's lead is INSURMOUNTABLE! Here is a great article from November 16:

PRINCETON , NJ -- In the national standings of the Democratic presidential candidates seeking their party's nomination next year, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to hold a strong 27-point lead over second-place rival Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, according to a new Gallup Poll. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards remains further behind in third place.

Of course, this is a Gallop news article from November 16, 2007.

Why do people feel obligated to deny that Clinton was in the same position* in 2007 that she currently occupies?


*When I refer to Clinton being in the "same position" in 2007, I don't mean to imply she is in the identical position. Obviously, Clinton's favorablity polling numbers were MUCH stronger in 2007.

[djean111]

1. Now you've done it!

Better brace yourself for the "Bernie is no Obama" wave!

[Hepburn]

9. Bernie does not have an organization like Obama did!

Phase Two the wave. IMO, of course!

[upaloopa]

11. Now you've done it yes Bernie is no Obama

I remember that rousing speech Bernie made at a prior Dem convention putting him on the national stage. Wait that didn't happen since his name recognition is why he is behind in the polls.
But I remember all the community organizing Bernie did with POC in Chicago which will earn him the loyalty of AA's. Oh dumb me that didn't happen either.
But an independent Senator from a 95% white populated state who has little name recognition unless there are many more debates ranks right up there with President Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Did they repeal the 22nd Amendment?

Thank you in advance.

[upaloopa]

3. Bernie is not Obama

Constantly comparing 2015 to 2007 is showing desparation.
But any port in a storm I guess

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. If Bernie is Obama I am the three time heavyweight champion depicted in my avatar.

[restorefreedom]

30. congrats, mr. ali!

but no, bernie is no obama. he is much more progressive during a time when people are fed up with status quo. so he is actually in a better spot.

[jeepers]

7. But Hillary is still Hillary

[Attorney in Texas]

22. Clinton 2007 is not Clinton 2015. In Nov. 2007, Clinton had a 52% favorable and 45% unfavorable (+7%

rating) in the polls.

Now, Clinton has a 41% favorable and 52% unfavorable (-11%) rating.


Meanwhile, Sanders has a net positive favorable rating (+4%) that is 15% better than Clinton's net negative (-11%) rating.

[zappaman]

4. Obama's running again?

Well, he gets my vote again!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I would vote for him. He would likely win but it wouldn't be easy.

[Ed Suspicious]

13. Oh dear. I think you better open up a newspaper. I'll save you the trouble. Obama isn't running.

[Skidmore]

17. Tell that to the OP. nt

[Ed Suspicious]

18. The OP seems to understand that he is making a comparative analysis. He doesn't appear to need my

help.

[zappaman]

21. Oh, I thought maybe the 22nd ammendment had been repealed and this was breaking news...

[DCBob]

8. Lucky for Clinton there is no one like Barack Obama running against her this time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Make believe this is a SAT question

Make believe this is a SAT question

Which person is unlike the other:

John Kennedy
Bill Clinton
Barack Obama
Bernie Sanders

[DCBob]

12. Very good.

But the Bernsters wont get it.

[Attorney in Texas]

23. Bill Clinton is unlike the others: Kennedy was a ground breaker (1st Catholic President), Obama was

a ground breaker (1st Black President), and Sanders is a ground breaker (would be the 1st Jewish President).

Bill Clinton is the first President to sign the Defense of Marriage Act? The first President who looked at the welfare policies under Ronald Reagan and decided to make those policies less generous to the poor? The first President to negotiate and sign NAFTA to the detriment of US labor? The first Democrat to govern to the right of Richard Nixon?

Is that what you mean?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I will stay with my SAT analogy.

Which of the four was not young, virile, vibrant, and charismatic:

John Kennedy
Barack Obama
Bill Clinton
Bernie Sanders

[Attorney in Texas]

31. So by your standard, FDR would lose?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. The great man rose above his physical challenges and most of us only know about them in retrospect.

The great man rose above his physical challenges, exuded vim and vigor, and most of us only know about his physical challenges in retrospect.

The indices indicated that Roosevelt and Ford were the highest and lowest rated charismatic presidents, respectively. Cluster analysis revealed several salient clusters including Reagan-Kennedy, Truman-Johnson-Nixon, and Carter-Ford. Key events of the respective presidencies were used to explain the various clusters.

http://www.leader-values.com/article.php?aid=269

[Attorney in Texas]

36. Who is drawing bigger audiences -- Clinton or Sanders? How does crowd-size speak to charisma?

I like Clinton -- she's my second choice -- but do you really think charisma is her strongest selling point? Or are you arguing that youth and virility are her biggest selling points?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Toughness is her sine qua non...She is never going to win Ms. or Miss Congeniality.

EOM

[Attorney in Texas]

39. Toughness? You said the key criteria were "young, virile, vibrant, and charismatic." Clinton fairs

poorly under the criteria that you previously proposed.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. My seminal post in this thread was to agree with Bob that the Vermont independent is an inadequate

My seminal post in this thread was to agree with Bob that the Vermont independent is an inadequate proxy for Barack Obama.

Charisma is a valuable attribute in a leader but not the only one... Strength, intelligence, persistence, empathy, experience, a holistic view of the world, are also attributes one normally looks for in a leader.


I can't speak for my fellow Clinton supporters but if there was no 22nd Amendment i would be casting my third vote for Barack Obama.

[Attorney in Texas]

42. As I saw it, you set a test that included youth, virility, and charisma. Clinton fails your own test

I like president Obama, and I'd take a third Obama term, but that is not an option.

Since we are going to have to replace Obama, we could either replace him with someone who is more of a pacifist or someone who is more hawkish. I prefer the former (Sanders) and not the later (Clinton).

We could replace Obama with someone who supports more regulation of the financial institutions as compared to Obama's regulatory policy or someone who supports less regulation of the financial institutions as compared to Obama's regulatory policy. I prefer the former (Sanders) and not the later (Clinton).

We could replace Obama with someone who would be less inclined than Obama to put US labor in unfair competition with foreign labor that is cheaper because the foreign companies do not have to comply with worker rights and environmental protections or someone who would be more inclined than Obama to put US labor in unfair competition with foreign labor that is cheaper because the foreign companies do not have to comply with worker rights and environmental protections. I prefer the former (Sanders) and not the later (Clinton).

Since Obama cannot run for a third term, we can either progress past Obama or retreat back from Obama. I prefer the former (Sanders) and not the later (Clinton).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. An analogy

As I saw it, you set a test that included youth, virility, and charisma. Clinton fails your own test
I like president Obama, and I'd take a third Obama term, but that is not an option.

Again, I was citing the reasons for Bob why Senator Sanders is an inadequate proxy for Barack Obama.

A person can be really good at one thing and that one thing can make him special. Your fellow Texan, Shaquille O'Neal, because one of the all time great centers because he figured out how to maneuver his three hundred twenty five pound plus frame a foot way from the basket to dunk the ball...He was far from the quickest or most agile athlete on the court. Another one of your fellow Texans , George Foreman, became one of the greatest heavyweights in boxing history because he had reach and packed a wallop to compensate for the fact he was slow and flat footed.

I predict Americans will be looking for strength, experience, empathy, a holistic view of the world, and intelligence and Americans will see that in Hillary whatever charisma deficit she has, real or imagined...

[Ed Suspicious]

15. There is noone like Bernie, lucky for Clinton, as she is an American citizen, she might find herself

living in a better country as a result.

[mythology]

14. Part of it is the ability to do math

In 2007 Clinton was drawing less than 50%. Today she's drawing more than 50%. So in 2007 when the lower drawing candidates dropped out and support coalesced around the last two candidates, Obama could get the support needed to win the delegate count.

This year how does adding the support for Sanders and O'Malley and the undecideds get above Clinton's 55% or 60%?

[oasis]

16. At this time in 2007, DUers weren't referring to her as "Madam President".

Now would be a good time to begin.

[GusBob]

19. This is getting old for one thing

The other thing is this: What percentage of African Americans voted for PBO?

How is HRC polling with that demographic here, now, today?

The folks that voted for PBO then are gonna vote for HRC now. Its really simple

[Robbins]

28. Your ignoring some things

at this point blacks were mainly supporting Clinton.

I voted for Obama and i sure am not voting for her.

Bernie's numbers are actully higher than Obama's was at this point in 2007.

If edwards wasn't running her overall numbers would have been higher.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Hillary lost the African American vote 82% -15%

I saw a fascinating piece of research that I am re-creating from memory but if African Americans would have voted like their other Democratic counterparts by income and education Hillary would have won over sixty percent of the primary votes.

That's the headwinds Senator Sanders faces.

[NCTraveler]

20. You made a comparison without a point.

You make a comparison and then make a point to why they don't match up. This is getting interesting.

[PowerToThePeople]

25. K&R. n/t

[brooklynite]

26. ...because she's consistently ABOVE 50% this time?

[Gothmog]

27. Sanders is not a Barack Obsama

I seriously doubt that Sanders can duplicate the Obama results but time will tell.

[Juicy_Bellows]

33. SANDERS DOESN'T HAVE OBAMA'S ABS!

Come on!

[anamnua]

34. Apples with apples.

Last edited Wed Nov 18, 2015, 06:58 PM - Edit history (1)

Remember the golden rule of statistical interpretation:

Compare apples with apples.

African Americans flocked to Obama for the same (understandable) reason that 95% plus of Catholics voted for JFK in 1963 and 95% plus of Mormons voted for Romney in 2012: the prospect of putting one of their own into power for the first time was irresistible. That tied down one third of the Dem vote immediately for Obama.
A point worth repeating: Hill actually won more votes than Obama in the primaries (sort of like Gore/Bush in 2000!). She lost because of the quirks of the system.
Oh, and Hillary's organisation on the ground is far superior to what it was back in 2008.

[Robbins]

38. Oh jesus

again your ignoring history

at this point most blacks weren't supporting obama they were supporting clinton.Seeing Obama could win with whites in iowa and the racist tacits of clintons changed it.

clinton supports trying to say more people wanted her than Obama

If her ground game is so great why does DWS and DNC have to rig the game for her.

Why does she have to try to smear bernie as sexist,racist,and wanting to get rid of medicare like she used race card against Obama?

[Attorney in Texas]

40. Sanders lock on the progressive vote is akin to Kennedy's and Obama's and Romney's appeal to their

constituencies.

[riversedge]

35. and a Big Rec.