Bernie Sanders Campaign Releases POLLING With 'Very Encouraging News'

[Segami]

The Sanders campaign has released its internal polling. Really good news from their pollster Tulchin Research. I encourage you to delve into their link above as they expand on the key points given below with the numbers and analysis.

A series of reputable public polls released recently – notably the ABC News/Washington Post poll and the New York Times/CBS poll – contained a lot of very encouraging news for Senator Bernie Sanders and his presidential campaign. Yet the articles discussing the results positioned Hillary Clinton as "dominating" or "sweeping" the Democratic primary. In response to this erroneous interpretation, we felt compelled to set the record straight and provide a more accurate analysis of this polling data and its implications for Sanders, Clinton and the Democratic presidential primary contest.


There are several key points we will address in this memo, focusing on the fact that:



- Bernie Sanders continues to close the gap in the primary horserace with Hillary Clinton, even over the past month which pundits broadly declared a very good period for HRC, even going so far as calling it her "best month ever";

- Sanders is steadily increasing his name ID and favorability ratings with Democrats, especially Democratic primary voters;

- Sanders’ message of income inequality and political corruption by special interests is driving the issue agenda within the Democratic primary;

- Hillary Clinton has real vulnerabilities within the Democratic primary electorate, particularly on "being too close to special interests and Wall Street," among other issues;

- Sanders is much more popular with independents than HRC, which has major implications for both the primary and the general election; and

- Sanders is currently much better positioned with Republican voters than HRC. When combined with his vastly superior standing with independents, this helps explain why Sanders does at least as well if not better than Clinton in general election match-ups with leading Republican candidates. These findings raise real questions as to which of these leading Democratic candidates is in fact the best positioned for the general election.


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/11/19/1451862/-Sanders-campaign-releases-polling-with-very-encouraging-news

[AzDar]

1. Booyah!!

Bernie!!

[roguevalley]

2. there is a leviathon of voters out there off

land lines that haven't been researched. They will hold the key in this. I know he will win.

[MaggieD]

3. So he's unskewing the polls for us?

[bravenak]

8. This.

[tex-wyo-dem]

20. One reason I don't support Hillary...

Her supporters.

[Ed Suspicious]

26. Are polls meant to be interpreted? I ask because you seem to think they are valuable as raw data,

and that data argues for itself. It does not.

[Starry Messenger]

29. I am convinced now that his supporters say what they do

because it comes from the top.

[Joe the Revelator]

4. When a candidate begins to release internal polling....

....things are worse than they seem.

[Cheese Sandwich]

12. I don't think it was that kind of internal polling

It looks like they were just collating and interpreting information from other reputable polls.

I'm not sure why the Kos blogger called it "internal polling".

[winter is coming]

24. Yeah, I'm not seeing any internal polling, either. n/t

[appalachiablue]

5. The message & support of Bernie is growing. A wonderful thing, clean & hopeful.

[Mnpaul]

6. What isn't mentioned about the CBS poll

Mr. Sanders and Mr. O’Malley do appear to have room to grow if they can find a way, the poll found: Half of Democratic primary voters said it was still too early to say for sure who they would support.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/11/12/poll-shows-hillary-clinton-maintaining-lead-over-sanders/

[Hiraeth]

34. ^^^this^^^

[Mnpaul]

35. Some interesting results

Q15. Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?

Mind made up 49 up from 43 in Sept.

Too early 50 down from 56 in Sept

Don't know/No answer 1

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-maintains-lead-among-democrats-cbs-newsny-times-poll/

[Hiraeth]

36. Plenty of wiggle room for all of them. Way too early for the public at large. Holidays, people !!

[onehandle]

7. Utter fantasy. nt

[WillyT]

9. LOL !!!

[Punkingal]

11. yeah, like it was for Obama...

[aidbo]

17. .

[JDPriestly]

18. Either very solid information or I'm only talking to a select group of Sanders

supporters.

When I campaign, the reaction favoring Bernie is just unbelievably enthusiastic and enormous.

Of course, I'm in the West, California. We have 55 votes in the electoral college and a very blue state.

My personal experience in campaigning suggests that Bernie is way ahead of Hillary in our state. If Bernie catches on elsewhere the way he has here, Bernie wins. I think he will win.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

21. Hillary won the California Primary last time but it's not a winner take all system.

[AtomicKitten]

10. The hinky polling commissioned by the Clinton campaign goes poof.

k&r

[Gothmog]

13. If you really believe these numbers, open Irish account and place a bet on Sanders

Predictwise has Sanders at 7% to be the nominee which is one of the lowest numbers for Sanders that I have seen on Predictwise http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

[wilsonbooks]

15. Actually I had a friend put a little money on Bernie in London.

[Duckfan]

16. Well according to this post 2-3 weeks ago Bernie is in great shape.

An apparent solid record-hitting it on the nose in past GE cycles.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251790649

[Samantha]

14. This is very similar to what I posted yesterday!

"I do not think any of the polling done now is that reliable"

I believe Bernie Sanders will get a lot more Republican votes than one might expect. There are a number of Republicans who think there is no acceptable candidate for President in the current GOP lineup. "They are all nuts." But there is also the fact that a lot of Bernie's positions on certain issues are positions many main-stream Republicans support, for instance, Social Security and Medicare. It is not often discussed, but on many, many issues Americans agree in large positive percentages on key points. Yes, the usual divisive social issues are dragged out gain to split Americans' -- but everyone is catching on to the fact that is simply a ploy to distract from the true goals of the Republican party.

So the polls usually sample (if I can use that word loosely in light we have learned about methods being utilized) Republicans and Democrats separately instead of just polling all likely American voters in one group and presenting the potential for a cross-over impact.

And then there is the fact 25% of the people have no clue who Bernie Sanders is. Since he has started advertising, that will slowly change.

And then there is the recent incident of Bernie Sanders of being shown by a reporter the huge gap between his numbers and Hillary's number while being asked how did he think he could win the election when these numbers showed him so far behind? He looked at the numbers on the papers and simply said, "those are not the numbers I am seeing." I felt this was a true statement. I believe both Hillary and Bernie Sanders have totally different numbers than the ones the public is being fed.

[JDPriestly]

19. Meanwhile, let's talk about the issues. Sanders is the candidate when it comes to the

issues. College tuition in state schools (which would, I assume include community colleges and tech schools), Medicare for all, raise a small tax on Wall Street and a tiny higher payroll tax to end the ransoms that private insurance companies are charging us.

Free from the pressure and bribery of corporate money, Bernie can deal with a lot of financial problems that ordinary candidates, regardless of their party, dare not even acknowledge exist.

Feel the Bern!

Feel how it is to do what is right and not what pleases your corporate donors.

Hillary. Shame on you. You know better but you take that money anyway. I will never vote for you because of that. I will vote for all other Democrats, but not for Hillary. She is arguably, corruption walking. The very image of it. And it will catch up with her.

[Agony]

37. I say Feel! You say BERN!

Enough is Enough is Enough is Enough!

"And ladies can I just say this, we want our whole damn dollar!" "Enough is Enough!" Nina Turner

[Cali_Democrat]

22. Internal polling is usually kept internal

The fact that they're making their internal polling public means their campaign is falling apart.

[HerbChestnut]

33. The polls the report referenced were not internal polls.

They were polls conducted by ABC, Monmouth, etc. The report just compiled a bunch of information from those polls and put it together in one coherent document.

[swilton]

23. The numerical data supporting Hillary's 'surge'

have yet to be reconciled with the boots on the ground responses from social media and the record turnouts at Sanders' events -not to mention conversations with Sanders supporters here and locally. The MSM's track record is far from stellar. Finally, there is anecdotal evidence that outside the establishment candidacies of politicians abroad have totally been missed by conventional polling mechanisms.

[sabrina 1]

25. Notice the flurry of polls every hour of every day lately trying to convince people that

Hillary is 'inevitable'? NONE of them can properly poll Bernie's huge support since most of them are not registered as Dems yet. And the Indy vote is the largest in the country now, showing the disgust of voters with both political parties.

Bernie will get that vote AND the previously, and also huge, non voter demographic.

THAT'S why we are seeing this tsunami of polls. Because Hillary's campaign KNOWS she is going to lose the nomination as Bernie's support grows and grows while hers diminishes.

So now they are turning to TERROR to try to discourage people. That won't work either, old tactics which people now have the results of to judge by, will only turn more people to Bernie.

I guess we're going to hear a 'War is the Answer' speech tomorrow from Hillary, a bit more subtly perhaps, but the war drums are definitely beating loud and clear and THAT is why we so badly need Bernie in the WH.

[in_cog_ni_to]

27. INDEPENDENTS, INDEPENDENTS, INDEPENDENTS... (and MILLENNIALS)

Being well known has its advantages and disadvantages. With Independents, it's a massive disadvantage. Bernie has the Independents (because they know Clinton) and when MILLENNIALS are thrown into the equation, he's got a huge lead over her...no matter what Corporate Owned pollster polls say. Bernie's GOT THIS.


This difference is even more pronounced among independent voters in early states who plan on voting in the Democratic caucus or primary. For example, in New Hampshire – where independents have made up as much as half of the Democratic presidential primary electorate – Sanders leads by 24 points (59% to 35%) according to the latest Monmouth University poll. New Hampshire Democratic Primary-Voting Independents Strongly Favor Sanders Over Clinton “Who would you support if the presidential primary was being held today?” Bernie Sanders 59% Hillary Clinton 35% Sanders – Clinton +24 Monmouth University Poll, 10/29-11/1/2015

[sorechasm]

30. Trump Fear will drive Independents to the left for Bernie

While Hillary Fear will drive Independents to the right.

With Bernie we win. With Hillary we lose.

Pretty simple equation actually.

[SidDithers]

28. So Bernie is relying on independents and Republicans...

to help him win the Democratic primary?

Awesome strategy.

Sid

[brooklynite]

31. So the Sanders campaign is endorsing "corporate polls"?

A series of reputable public polls released recently – notably the ABC News/Washington Post poll and the New York Times/CBS poll – contained a lot of very encouraging news for Senator Bernie Sanders

[Babel_17]

32. Trust and enthusiasm

When this primary contest moves to the front burner of Democratic primary voters consciousness, we'll see details about which candidate draws in the Independents, and newly registered voters. We'll see who is polling higher in swing states that we must win.

Senator Sanders is doing great even without having had a lot of exposure to most voters. And the thing is, the more people see and hear him, the more they warm to him.

Our party has to think about winning the voters we'll have to fight for. Primary voters will be thinking about the chances of electing a very well known candidate who is polling frighteningly poorly in terms of trust.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2303

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287

[sabrina 1]

38. So we were RIGHT. The flurry of polls was a desperate effort to control the message!

The KNOW they are in trouble!