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Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:32 AM

Asymptote



Hillary and Bernie's poll numbers are starting to level off as shown in the most recent polling average chart. The state polling is also starting to curve in the direction of the national trend, what does Bernie have to do to change this trend?

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:40 AM

1. You asked: "what does Bernie have to do to change this trend?"

Over time, there are fewer and fewer people in the pool of "undecideds" and as the number goes down, they appear to be splitting-off for the three candidates in proportions that are very similar to the candidate's current poll numbers.

Also, as the number of undecideds goes down, that gives the #2 and #3 candidates fewer opportunities to "SURGE" ahead (based on capturing the undecided voters.)

So, at that point the #2 and #3 candidates can only "surge" (or creep incrementally higher) by peeling-away supporters who had previously declared. Historically, I think it's fair to say that it would be much more difficult to get a declared supporter to change their vote, and it would be to get an "undecided" voter to give their support.

Bernie's chances continue to look very dismal. Something BIG BIG BIG would have to happen in order for him to turn things around, and that's not very likely to happen.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:56 AM

4. Big, Big, Big things ARE happening, though.

They're just not things that Bernie Sanders can address in a way that appeals to voters. His narrow focus on economics is keeping him from dealing with big issues that concern voters as they develop. There will probably be more of those to come, too. Presidents don't just have to deal with the economy and jobs. It's a far bigger job than that.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 04:10 PM

8. I agree that the people without an opinion of the 3 candidates is going down.

With Hillary being over 50% in many polls, the only way another candidate can win is to take votes away from her. Tough to do but not impossible.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:42 AM

2. It's too late

We tried to tell them, but whatever, they didn't want to hear it. This isn't 2007-08 and Bernie Sanders is no Barack Obama.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:54 AM

3. To change that, Bernie would have to be someone other than Bernie.

He is who he is, supports what he supports and is firm in his beliefs. It's not Bernie Sanders who is being measured. It's his ideas and how well they mesh with the ideas of voters.

We're seeing that in the polls now. He's actually doing remarkably well and better than I would have expected by about 5%. I believe, though, that he has peaked and has pretty much all of the supporters he will be able to muster. In the end, voters will vote based on their own preferences, for such a wide range of reasons that there's little hope that Sanders focus on economic issues will turn the trends around.

When he has to address other issues than economics, he falters, because they are not issues he has focused on. But, those issues are clearly of interest to many voters. His inability or unwillingness to stick to the topic of ISIS and Syria in the second debate, even for the two minutes he had for his opening statement demonstrates that that issue is of less interest to him. It's of great interest, however, right now, for many people.

Bernie has peaked. I don't think that trend is reversible. I like Bernie Sanders. He's a great Senator and acts as the conscience of the Senate. I hope he continues to be that. He's not going to be President, though, or even the Democratic nominee. There it is.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:37 PM

7. I love this post!

#LoveThisPost #MineralManRocks

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 08:20 PM

9. Just put all this crap with the rest in the Hillary group.

Pseudo intellectuals that said Bernie was wrong about the Iraq invasion now say he is weak on foreign policy. His attempt to broaden your knowledge about other factors other than what you have expected after buying into the BS from lobbyists and want to be lobbyists for or members of the Military Industrial Complex including many at higher levels of the Pentagon tell you to sell their war agenda as a solution for everything apparently fell on deaf ears.. You are already conditioned to believe Hillary and you do. Bernie tries to add to your knowledge and you are not open to listening to perfectly logical but unanticipated statements. I have lots of experience at looking at threat documents and many times what is said in public does not reflect the secret document but in this case I know for sure that the CIA has stated publicly that climate change is the greatest threat to our country and will cause more and more chaos and related terrorism as peoples seek what are seen as common items today such as clean water, arable land, clean air, and sufficient shelter from the climate and these items become more and more scarce. Wars are about gathering things of value and basic vital resources are most valuable. To deny this is to deny our own history. When King George refused to allow poor Americans to move into Indian controlled lands, they felt cheated because they needed the land to avoid the squalor of living in cities and areas controlled by rich overlords either appointed by the English king or by virtue of wealth either made here or inherited. At the time , the saying was that the rich would grind the face of the poor, symbolizing the inhumanity of the rich oppressors. It is well recognized today that refusing to allow expansion into Indian territory by the king restricted the ability of the potential settlers of the poor lower classes from utilizing the resources of good farmland to improve the lot of themselves and their families and created much of the groundswell of opposition to English rule. To the English, we were terrorists. Also there was a religious hatred factor in the equation just like there is today in terrorism. Many of the poor were Scotch Irish and Presbyterian haters of the Church of England. In the colonies people were taxed to pay for the priests and churches of the Church of England whether they attended, most didn't, that church or not. This tax was hated probably more than stamp or tea taxes since it made the colonists mainly Presbyterians most angry to pay for a faith they did not want to support in any fashion. These Presbyterians were the first to declare declarations of Freedom from English rule and that declaration became a source for ideas and language borrowed by Jefferson in the later Declaration of Independence he wrote. In fact their Presbyterian organization became the model for our Congress and their churches formed the model of grass roots organizing uniting us in a common cause of ending English rule in the colonies spreading ideas and vital communications across a difficult to transverse colonial landscape. So what we see today while we find it vile and deplorable has many similarities to our own history both in reasons for the struggle and religion taking advantage of the struggle already apparent to enhance its stature and compete with a rival religion using war. By the way, our revolution was called the Presbyterian War by the English at the rtime further demonstrating its connection to religion. it is also stated in histroy books that over 60 percent of the soldiers who fought the English were Presbyterian. So Bernie knows of what he speaks and if you cannot learn because you dismiss what you do not expect that is your problem but please try to hold down all your unsupported conclusions about Bernie's knowledge of foreign affairs and remember opinions are like assholes everyone has one but one should not bore those who would analyze and learn about reality with these unsupported opinions. We already have Fox News for that, and the Main stream Media owned by the rich doing it to support Hillary, their investment. Quit helping them. And please Hillary supporter do not try to cover your support of the establishment and Hillary up claiming you like Bernie. That meme has long died here . Last but not least try to learn more history so we do not repeat mistakes. As Bernie wisely said our problems stem from making bad decisions in the past and that if we make better decisions in the future the people will be better off economically. I know if we do not know history we are doomed to repeat the history that best served the ruling class before and we do not want to keep doing the same stupid things do we?

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Response to daybranch (Reply #9)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 08:22 PM

10. W.O.W. DNR

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Response to daybranch (Reply #9)

Sun Nov 22, 2015, 12:41 AM

14. I'm sorry, this is unreadable

Paragraphs please.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:59 AM

5. Just unskew the polls

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:10 PM

6. How will changing the polls improve Sander's wekness in foreign policy at a time...

...when foreign policy is dominating the news?

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Response to Nitram (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 20, 2015, 08:41 PM

11. see my post above, get some knowledge cut the bull and neuter the beast

We already have Fox News and Main Stream Media loudly expounding unsupported bull , why are you? Where are your facts? Where has Bernie ever been wrong about Foreign Affairs ? Please provide one example and not some agenda feeding current bull from supporters of the Military Industrial Complex or those most interested in profiting from the oil resources found overseas? The same group that create harmful Nationalism to send our sons and daughters off to die to increase their wealth is who you believe? The CIA has stated climate change is rthe greatest threat we face here in the USA and have publicly linked the competition for what in the future be climate change reduced quantities of vital resources ( arable land, clean drinking water, shelter from the climate and natural disasters) to future wars and chaos. There is no end in sight and refusal to recognize this is to ignore the threat and our own history. Again I ask you to read my reply shown above. Hope this is more informative than argumentative but I am prejudiced for Bernie as the candidate who is for democracy and in my opinion that makes him almost always right.

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Response to daybranch (Reply #11)

Sat Nov 21, 2015, 10:45 PM

13. Nobody is going to see your above post until you use paragraphs. It's awful

 

On the eyes. No one is going to wade through it.

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Response to daybranch (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 23, 2015, 01:04 PM

15. If you'd like to "cut the bull, then you should probably not put words in my mouth.

I never said Bernie was "wrong" about foreign affairs. I said he was "weak". As evidenced by his tendency to answer foreign policy questions with appeals to his domestic policies and his general avoidance of the topic. How are we to know if he is wrong or right of he avoids discussion of foreign policy except for his well-know dislike of military force?

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Sat Nov 21, 2015, 12:21 AM

12. That is about a 25% difference in Sanders' and Clinton's numbers and that is exactly

the percentage of people who have never heard of him.

This chart reflects only the Democratic party and not Republican and Independent cross-overs.

These numbers are also skewed somewhat due to the co-mingling of some pollsters who do not have good reputations.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #12)

Mon Nov 23, 2015, 01:05 PM

16. I guess that just about "proves" Bernie's got the race tied up.

Congrats!

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