Roller coaster suspense: dead heat at election minus two months

[jeanV]

This election couldn't have been better scripted if it was a whodunit movie, with half an hour to go, and no obvious culprit in sight.


• Electoral college looks tied (more committed to Obama, but some Romney momentum)

• Romney back to parity in polls

• Conservative sites want to believe Rasmussen only

• But the money still is on Obama

How about a genetically modified compromise?

[yourout]

1. Our nation is at least 1/3 dumbfucks that don't know when they are being played for suckers.

This is probably what the Middle Ages would have looked like if they had hired a PR firm.

[high density]

4. That's the thing

33% are sane
33% are crazy
33% have no fucking clue

The keys to the country are being offered up by the people with no fucking clue

[adigal]

2. I think it is not close at all, and I don't want any Romney compromise.

Never.

[Dawgs]

3. Not quite. And, this is all before the Dems even get a chance to serve. n/t

[fugop]

5. Electoral tie?

Not sure the electoral college can be called a tie when this map is showing 247 to 191. I'll take that kind of tie any day!

[jeanV]

6. 247/191 is the voted likely to be committed

With Florida tilting Romney, it's closer to an almost pure tie 249/220.

Left with 70 undecided.

[jenmito]

7. And with OH and VA leaning Obama, that gives Obama the win with 278:

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

[totodeinhere]

8. That is if they play it straight in Ohio.

But if we see the same shenanigans that they played in Ohio in 2004 then watch out.

[jenmito]

10. Obama & his campaign is on the offensive in OH (& the other swing states) unlike Kerry. nt

[jeanV]

11. Florida and Ohio

And with OH and VA leaning Obama, that gives Obama the win with 278

My hunch, I'd bet Florida (29) and Ohio (18) Romney. Therefore a 240/238 tie.

To me, looks like a toss up right now.

I have no idea what will tilt the result. Debates? latest economic news?

[jenmito]

12. MY hunch is YOUR hunch is wrong (and against what the polls & odds say):

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[jeanV]

14. fivethirtyeight calls FLA. a toss up

MY hunch is YOUR hunch is wrong (and against what the polls & odds say):

[jenmito]

15. Still, it has him w/ a 59% chance of winning it, and OHw/ a 71.5% chance of Obama

winning it. And Obama has a 74.5% chance of winning the EV. So my hunch trumps your hunch, as do the numbers. But you can keep trying.

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. Aaaachootroll

Gezundheit.

[Ira]

13. But Obama win is probable.

The average of five online electoral college odds makers (538, Predictwise, Betfair, Intrade and Smarkets) currently shows Obama with a 65% probability of winning.

http://peanutgallerypolitical.blogspot.com/

[AndyTiedye]

16. If they Can Steal FL, OH, WI and PA, they "Win"

Does anyone here think they won't try to steal those states?
Do we have any way to stop them?

[alcibiades_mystery]

19. PA is solid blue

They don't stand a chance in hell of taking PA. It's not even a swing state anymore.

[RBInMaine]

17. Obama win VERY probable. (BUT still campaign like hell !)

No third party spoilers. No scandals. Economy holding its own, all things considered. Weak Republican candidate. General majority (even if a slim majority) consensus that Obama has been a decent President under very tough circumstances. Unlikely to overturn him and replace him with a flawed cardboard guy. Yes, they will have a lot of money. But Obama will be well financed as well, and given history and proven models such as Lichtman's keys, it is very likely he will win re-election.

BUT, we still need to all donate what we can and campaign as much as we can. Take NOTHING for granted.

[SmittynMo]

18. With all the articles I have been reading,

Can someone explain to me why Obama does not have a huge lead? Somebody's lying here. The media? The GOP has lost the female vote, and the middle class, just to name a few. Anyone with 1/2 a brain can see what the GOP stands for. It's definitely not in America's best interest to put these clowns in office. So why isn't he slamming the GOP? Months ago, I predicted a landslide, and that was before all the shit that has come out from the right since then. The RNC was a total disaster. I do not understand why he hasn't taken every state? Are there that many incompetent, ignorant, bigoted people in this country? WTF

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. Even with the numbers posted by the Conservative Troll OP, Mitt has to win them ALL, pretty much

Obama wins any two of those, and he's over 270. That's on the pessimistic reading. It will be over when the polls close on the West Coast.