2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIpsos/Reuters Poll w/ Filters Cleared: Bernie 34%, Hillary 32%, O'M 6%
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/dates/20150808-20160125/type/smallestHas basically the same number of responses as the other poll recently posted. Let's not overreact to polls...
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)A lot of people aren't voting which drives her numbers even higher. And the numbers are jumping all over the place. What is that?
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Jumping numbers are probably a result of low response rates and typical polling variation (exacerbated by low response rates)
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)Maybe it's a partial days results?
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)mouse is touching.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)If you move your mouse around the graph the results will show from previous dates.
Bjorn Against
(12,041 posts)Now when I went there again I see the same results the OP reported so it looks like the numbers changed drastically for no clear reason. Also if you put on the "Tea Party affiliated" filter it shows Hillary getting 43% among Tea Party affiliated voters, I know she is conservative but even so I have a really hard time believing she has 43% support from Teabaggers. The numbers in this poll do not make sense.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Reuters is reporting its own poll contrary to the way that you would like to read it is because if you put the "likely voter" filter on (which is a good filter if the polling is broad enough to successfully apply the filter), it reduces and skews the sample size so that the data is no longer reliable.
I suspect that DemocratSinceBirth is well aware of this.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)RESPONDENTS
Former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton42.4%
Wouldnt vote26.9%
Ver. Sen. Bernie Sanders25.7%
Mar. Gov. Martin OMalley2.5%
NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo1.2%
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)Meaning that all candidates numbers go up.
The 26.9% that won't vote don't count. So Hillary is 42.4 of 73.1 (100-26.9). 58%
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)The polls seem to be very stable.
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)"Wouldn't vote" is in there which doesn't normally count. This means that actual numbers for all candidates are higher.
5 day average of just Registered Democrats: 62-29
5 day average of all Democrats: 57-29
5 day average of likely Dem voters: 77-17
This is a pretty handy application.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)divergent from the population) and so Reuters is publishing the all Democrats number.
You can look at the cross-tabs but the more you drill down, the smaller the sample size.
Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)
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HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)The reason being is that other OP is basing results off of 111 respondents to the poll, which is an absurdly low number. My OP has 113 respondents, which is why I mentioned them. So if you look at it that way they two are comparable.