Current Democratic Primary Polling Shows Something Many

[MineralMan]

have not yet noticed:

Today's Quinnipiac poll shows a 60%-%30%-2% spread. The thing that is going unnoticed is that those percentages add up to 92%. The number of undecided people being polled has dropped significantly over the past month or so.

What happened in this latest one is that Clinton's increase was countered by a decrease for Sanders. That will start being the pattern from now on in polling. With few undecided respondents, changes will come more slowly and those changes will show an increase for one candidate at the cost of another candidate more and more often.

People are making up their minds. Most already have. With a 30% difference between Clinton and Sanders, the gap can no longer be filled by undecided voters. Any changes will require a swap, since the remaining undecided voters are likely to stay in that category going forward. There is always a small percentage that remains undecided in polling. Right now that's only about 8%. Once it gets down to 5%, it will probably stay there.

This will be apparent in the aggregate charts. If one candidate's line goes up, the other will go down. We're already seeing that with the steepening of Clinton's curve, compared to a flattening of Sanders'. Any increase above 60% for Clinton will send Sanders' number into a downward curve.

The percentages are what they are, and they're getting closer to 100% having made a choice. Polling will either remain about the same or gains for one candidate will result in losses for the other. O'Malley seems to be stuck in the low single digits, and I don't expect much change in that.

Watch the aggregate curves to see the trends. They will tell the story in the coming weeks.

[SunSeeker]

1. K & R

[Agnosticsherbet]

2. It is clear from these results that no one is polling DU.

You make a great point.

[MineralMan]

3. DU is representative of nothing when it comes

to national politics. It's still a valuable place to discuss things, but it has no relationship to real-world political trends.

[berni_mccoy]

8. I remember similar comments to this affect in 2008

when a young man was trailing further behind in the polls...

[MineralMan]

10. OK. I was an Obama supporter at that time.

I didn't join DU, though, until just before the election, so I didn't follow the discussions here.

[berni_mccoy]

11. It's ok man. I appreciate your posts and perspective

I'm just saying... these polls really don't mean much other than to eliminate outliers. And Bernie ain't one of those... so let's hold on and see what comes.

[MineralMan]

4. Note: This does not mean that the polls won't change.

It only means that gains by one candidate will come from losses by another. That's the important factor. For Bernie to gain, for example, he will need people now polling for Clinton to switch. That's a more difficult thing than getting undecided voters to decide for Sanders. The same applies to Hillary. Any gains she makes going forward will come from Sanders supporters.

That's why I think these numbers are going to be fairly stationary for some time.

[floriduck]

5. That poll also

states 41% indicated they could change their minds on who to vote for. It ain't over till it's over-RIP Yogi.

[MineralMan]

6. That wasn't my point at all. Of course people can change their

minds. My point is that any change will be a give and take thing. Nobody's numbers will go up without someone else's going down.

[brooklynite]

9. You apparently didn't look at WHERE those voters were...

2/3 of Clinton voters say their minds are made up, 50% of Sanders voters say they could change their minds.

[floriduck]

12. Sorry I missed whatever you deleted.

Your posts are always enlightening to someone.

[NurseJackie]

13. That stood out to me as well ...

... many Bernie fans have tried for a long time to argue that Hillary's support was soft. It appears now that the opposite is true. I'm sure that's worrisome for them.