Shock Poll: Bernie Sanders Is The Most Electable Candidate In Either Party - Brent Budowsky/Observer

[WillyT]

Shock Poll: Bernie Sanders is the Most Electable Candidate in Either Party
Sanders shows the power and appeal of the progressive movement
By Brent Budowsky • Observer
12/03/15 10:46am


Democratic Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks at the Jefferson Jackson Dinner on November 29, 2015 in Manchester, New Hampshire (Photo: Darren McCollester/Getty Images)

<snip>

A stunning new poll by Quinnipiac suggests Bernie Sanders is the most electable candidate in either party to be the next president of the United States.

In the Quinnipiac poll Mr. Sanders would defeat Republican frontrunner Donald Trump by 8 points, while Hillary Clinton would defeat him by only 6 points. Mr. Sanders would defeat Ben Carson by 6 points, while Ms. Clinton would defeat him by only three. Mr. Sanders would defeat Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz by 10 points, while Ms. Clinton would defeat him by five. Mr. Sanders and Ms. Clinton would both defeat Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio by one point.

While polls often show different results, there are additional polls showing the same pattern to the relative political strength of the Democratic and Republican candidates. If the Quinnipiac poll turns out to be correct the political implications are profound.

It is now very plausible to argue that of all of the candidates in either party for the presidential race Bernie Sanders is more electable than Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

While this astounding possibility is contrary to the almost unanimous conventional wisdom of political pundits, there are very concrete reasons it could be true.

How could Ms. Clinton have a commanding lead over Mr. Sanders in every national poll of Democrats, while Mr. Trump has a huge lead over every Republican in most national polls of Republicans, while Mr. Sanders could turn out to be the most electable presidential candidate of either party in a general election?

The answer, if this thesis turns out to be true, is actually simple. Presidents are elected in general elections, not in primaries and caucuses that choose the nominees. General elections are not decided by the pool of voters in the Democratic and Republican nominating campaigns but by the broader poll of voters in the general election campaign where the winner is usually the candidate who can win the most votes from political independents and members of the other party in the decisive vote on Election Day on the first Tuesday in November.

It is very possible Ms. Clinton could have a strong lead among registered Democrats but because her negative ratings are high and her trust ratings are low she could have difficulty winning the votes of many political independents and Republicans, compared to Mr. Sanders. It is equally possible that for the very reasons Mr. Trump holds a strong lead among Republicans he antagonizes large numbers of independents and Democrats, compared to Mr. Sanders.

The most intriguing and important variables that explain why Mr. Sanders can now make a credible case that he is more electable than any other Democratic or Republican candidate for president are these:

<snip>

More: http://observer.com/2015/12/shock-poll-bernie-sanders-is-the-most-electable-candidate-in-either-party/

[Betty Karlson]

1. Sanders is more electable than any other Democratic or Republican candidate.

Let this bear on your mind when you care about coattails and winning 2016 across the board: White House, Senate, and House.

[tk2kewl]

4. and the court

[Betty Karlson]

5. Indirectly: certainly. If you care about the Supreme Court, Sanders is your best shot. eom

[Duckfan]

39. And state legislatures and governors races.

[roguevalley]

14. consider what he would be standing at if the DNC and the media

weren't fuckers.

[Betty Karlson]

27. That's the 1 % for you.

Elites will be elites.

[upaloopa]

2. First he won't win the nomination

because he can't broaden his base

Secondly a win is a win by 1 point or 100 points

So who cares about this poll?

[thesquanderer]

10. True, "a win is a win by 1 point or 100 points"

or more precisely, by 270 electoral votes or 100 more than that. And either HRC or BS is likely to win in November. However, the one who wins a greater number of states/districts across the country would be the one with stronger downticket coattails. So it does make a difference.

That said, I don't expect that BS can beat HRC for the nomination. So we'll probably end up with the weaker candidate (in terms of crossover/independent appeal), and therefore perhaps an unfriendlier Congress, but at least we're still likely to win the WH.

But for that segment of people who used to argue for HRC largely on the basis of her being more electable, well, I guess they'll be switching to Sanders?

(Though really, most if not all of these Sanders leads are within the margin of error, so really, they're basically tied. I think the more positive factor for Sanders in this tie is that, because he is not as well-known as HRC among independents/republicans, he has more upside potential from here.)

[DownriverDem]

19. Nov 2016 is all that matters

I don't consider Hillary weak. I have watched her since her work on the Watergate Hearings. I will proudly vote for the first woman president. I have been waiting for a very long time to be able to vote for a qualified Dem woman. However if Bernie wins the nomination, I will vote for him. Nov. 2016 is all that matters.

[rhett o rick]

67. So was she weak when she betrayed the Democratic Party and voted to help her close friend

George Bush invade Iraq? Or do you consider that a strong, Margaret Thatcher kinda move?

We must stop the influence of big money in politics. That is a Democratic principle.

[upaloopa]

92. I did not like Hillary's IWR vote. Nor do I like Obama pushing the TPP

I am not so naive as to think politicians are perfect human beings. I look at our choices and try to determine who will give us the best possible outcomes based on reality not idealism.

[rhett o rick]

100. We've been sliding more and more into poverty and the lose of our Constitutional rights

for the last 40 years do to the fact that the 1% has firm control of our government. This has to change. I don't for a second believe that HRC will tax the 1% to help get 50,000,000 Americans out of poverty. I don't believe she will ask her friends in the 1% to help rebuild our crumbling infrastructure or bolster Social Security and Medicare. And if you are serious about getting progressive SCOTUS justices installed, we have a much better chance with Sen Sanders. Like it or not, if HRC wins the nomination, a lot of people that want to see change will stay home. I don't approve but it's a fact of life. That's really what happened in 2000. The Powers That Be have openly said they will be good with HRC or Bush. They do not want a real Progressive in the WH.

It's very sad when people try to shut Progressives down by calling them idealists. Is it idealism to want feed the 16,000,000 American children living in poverty? or fix our crumbling infrastructure? or help our children get a decent education? or insure that Social Security isn't cut? And on the other hand, how crazy is it to support the 1% and their chosen candidate and believe that they will turn things around. The 1% and their greed is to blame for our current situation. Why trust them?

[upaloopa]

93. I disagree about that down ticket idea. Based on her endoresements and Bernie's

she is the one with the longer coat tails

[thesquanderer]

96. The source of coattails is bodies in election booths in November...

...and specifically, in states and districts that don't reliably vote your way.

If Dem candidate A wins with barely over 270 electoral votes, meaning almost entirely those from reliably blue states, the opportunity to flip downticket seats is minimal. If candidate B wins with many more electoral votes including many from less solidly blue states, that's where the coattail opportunity to flip congressional seats lies.

So then the question is, which candidate is likely to have more appeal outside the solidly blue areas. In that case, I think Sanders' greater potential appeal to crossover Republican and independent voters outweighs endorsements. Especially when you consider that probably all of HRC's endorsers would in fact become Sanders endorsers if, by some chance, he actually got the nomination.

[PatrynXX]

42. well if he doesn't win

might as well hand it to Trump

[senz]

71. You don't know what he can and can't do.

You just want to discourage the superior candidate's supporters.

You can probably find a better way to cheer yourself up.

[upaloopa]

91. I am as cheered as I can be because we are winning

Hillary will be the 45th President of the United States.

[Perogie]

89. ,,

[UglyGreed]

3. But I was told

over and over again he was not electable

[DownriverDem]

20. Delegates is how it's won

Hillary is running the same primary campaign as Obama did in 2007-2008.

[frylock]

26. Hillary is running the same primary campaign as Hillary did in 2007-2008.

[DownriverDem]

38. Hillary is runng a much smarter campaign

Look, how come I like both Bernie and Hillary, but many folks seem to be into attacking? Why? Hillary is using the same game plan as Obama did. Like or not. That's reality. She is using his data base. Why are you so jaded?

[frylock]

45. Other than using Obama's database, she's running the same campaign she did in 2008.

Why am I so jaded? Because I'm sick and tired of conservatives on both sides of the aisle fucking up our country.

[Plucketeer]

66. Debbie's got that crown ready

The crown bought and paid for by Wall St., the MIC and others. All that's left is going thru the motions and cashing those huge checks. Like Obama, Hillary will be bedeviled in trying to find shoes that would permit her to walk some peon's picket line.

[merrily]

6. All the more reason for the 1%, the media, the Republicans and the Turd Way to be sure he

doesn't get the nomination. All the more reason for the rest of us to do all we can to make sure he does get it. Donate, phone bank, GOTV. This primary is the most important of my life and I plan to live many more decades.

[chervilant]

97. I really like the way you put that, merrily.

Also, I keep listening to our younglings, who seem to be (or becoming) unanimously supportive of Senator Sanders.

Besides, as a geek about statistics and methodology (Babbie being one of my fave methodologists), I know that polls can be comprised of leading questions. The polling companies can construct a survey instrument that 'pushes' respondents towards the response the company prefers. So, every time I hear someone tout Hillary's "huge lead," I have to wonder exactly HOW the polling company worded their questions, because I'm not seeing that "huge lead" IRL.

Also, I browse the DU groups for both Sanders and Clinton just to keep my finger on the pulse, so to speak, and I've noted that OPs in support of Sanders get significantly more views and more responses that do OPs in support of Clinton. I've seen Clinton supporters remark on this rather derisively, which begs the question (love that solecism) "is DU skewed towards support of Senator Sanders?" I think it's amusing that some of Clinton's supporters vociferously assert that "only on DU" are Democrats skewed in support of Sanders. Is that wishful thinking? (I think so...)

(P. S. While I'm glad that Viola Davis won an Emmy, I still believe she should have won the Oscar for "The Help.&quot

[merrily]

103. Thank you chervilant. Great post.

Which begs the question, why is "which begs the question: a solecism?

Kos also seems to be "skewed" toward Sanders. Which means that most Democrats who keep up with politics on the daily favor Sanders. However, name recognition, the DNC/Clinton machinery, millions to buy ads, media support, etc. are powerful with people who do not follow politics as closely. Nonetheless, the Sanders campaign has been amazingly successful and transformational.

[TIME TO PANIC]

7. Of course he'll win if he gets the nomination.

He will also help democrats gain more seats in the house from a larger voter turnout.

[merrily]

9. Yep. Bernie has long coattails.

[redstateblues]

33. All those down ballot socialists

will be swept into office on his coattails

[merrily]

36. Anything substantive to say? Ever?

[senz]

70. LOL! I've got to remember this.

It's applicable all over this section of DU. And I do not think it could bring trouble upon the commenter. We need a list of "polite" comebacks.

[merrily]

80. Hey, senz! Nice to see you!

[senz]

81. Nice to see you too, merrily.

Always in good form.

It would be kind of cool to have a list of polite comebacks. But right now sleep seems better than anything.

[merrily]

82. Back at you senz.

I don't know about polite, but, as I posted to Rex a few minutes ago, "LOL!" and "Comedy gold." often fit. Sometimes, just "ok" works. Maybe a thread in the lounge?

Marginally related thought: You know what I love? Sayings like "He looked rode hard and put away wet." I did a thread mining for that kind of thing on another board years ago. I enjoyed the heck out of it, but I'll be dipped if I remember any of the sayings now and that board no longer exists.

[treestar]

88. Yes, talk about blind faith in one person

we don't have to worry about any down ballet election if we can just get the right messiah out front! Then the rest just follows.

Really, it is not that simple.

[Bread and Circus]

8. Not to those of us who are paying attention.

[Jarqui]

11. I'm not going to blindly accept everything word as absolute

perfect, accurate and reliable truth.

But there is some merit to his argument. I have been saying some similar things for similar reasons. And I'm not alone.

One thing I saw when I looked at some polls or analysis of them (don't recall where now) was that a bunch of voters are supporting Hillary in significant part because they don't think Bernie can win. Some of that feeling is founded on 60% of the country thinks Hillary is dishonest and the majority of the country has an unfavorable opinion of her but they'll hold their nose and vote for the Democrat who has the best chance to win.

I am seeing more and more articles like the above. And maybe that's what Bernie's campaign is realizing. If they get the word out making this argument, a number of folks who do not trust Hillary or do not think she's favorable will feel more comfortable switching to Bernie.

As I thought about that today and reflected on Barack's campaign in 2007-8, we were up against "They'll never elect a black man president!!". Reminds me a little of what some are saying about Bernie today. Bernie and Barack are very different. It's a different time with some issues that have matured. Barack had a lot of charisma vs Bernie, who I think more people trust. It may be a little more uphill for Bernie but I still think he's got a decent shot - particularly if we get the message out from the above article.

[DownriverDem]

17. Hillary's Campaign

Last edited Thu Dec 3, 2015, 03:49 PM - Edit history (1)

Hillary is running the same campaign as Obama did in 2008. In fact she is using his data base. Get your delegates lined up. Get your money lined up (yes without it the repubs will kill us) and work like hell. I will vote for whoever wins the Dem nomination.

[Jarqui]

24. If Hillary wins, I'm supporting her too

No way i'd turn my back on all the effort that has been made over the last decade or in my case, several decades, to let the GOP have their way just because the guy I preferred fell short. What we've been fighting for is much bigger than any candidate.

[randys1]

28. It is inconceivable any person qualified by the rules to join this message board

could do anything else.

And yet, your comment is actually somewhat controversial around here.

Crazy, I know.

[senz]

78. What's controversial is how some use it as an implied loyalty test.

It rubs people the wrong way. I bet if you think about it for a minute or two, you'll understand why.

[Ed Suspicious]

84. It's straight fucking Orwellian. It's DU newspeak. I've been reading 1984 so this is very fresh

to me. The total obsequious . . . I don't know, deference to party leaps off the page and into my DU nightmares.

[randys1]

98. Nonsense. I believe you shouldnt be able to own land, dirt, and I will not just

vote for Hillary IF she is the nominee, I will work on her campaign.

I believe healthcare is a right, education too, food for that matter.

I would drastically reduce the amount of capitalism we have to the point most of you here would get nervous, so implying what I am doing has anything to do with loyalty is just uninformed.

I am simply attempting to point out that Women will die if a dem is not elected.

period.

[frylock]

29. Hillary had money and delegates lined up in 2008.

Delegates jumped ship.

[DownriverDem]

41. Not this time

Support your candidate, but vote for the Dem in Nov. 2016.

[frylock]

46. I'm not a Dem, live in a deep-blue state, and will vote my conscience in the GE.

[Dont call me Shirley]

12. People want Progressive Programs! Bernie is a Progressive!

[demwing]

13. Yeah, we knew that

[AzDar]

15. Bernie!!

[DownriverDem]

16. Both our Dem candidates will beat the repubs!

Both Hillary and Bernie will beat the repubs. Support your Dem candidate. Just make sure you vote for whoever wins the Dem nomination. I don't want to hear folks saying they will write someone in. If you do, you will have handed the White House, Senate, House and Supreme Court to the repubs. Keep your eyes on the prize. If I get attacked, I'll know that the person is not a left leaning voter.

[U of M Dem]

86. "you will have handed the White House, Senat, House and Supreme Court to the repubs."

This is exactly how I feel if the neoliberal / third way / conservative-light candidate (HRC) wins the general. So no, I disagree with your party loyalty (oath) platitudes. The democratic party can't hide behind its track record of civil rights victories and social policy of decades past. I am not blind to the corrupting influence of money in politics or to the corporate take over of civic discourse.

HRC will be a classic case of 'you can't have your cake and eat it too,' mark my words. If you support a wall street friendly war hawk, you get more wars and more support to the 1%.

[Lil Missy]

18. And monkeys fly outta my butt. n/t

[randome]

21. Really? That must be...unsettling.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]"The whole world is a circus if you know how to look at it."
Tony Randall, 7 Faces of Dr. Lao (1964)[/center][/font][hr]

[frylock]

30. Sounds painful

[Spitfire of ATJ]

31. MPEG!!!

[WillyT]

40. Wow... Talk About Feelin' The Bern...

[ejbr]

60. !!!

[azurnoir]

43. Hopefully they're flea free monkey's

[Martin Eden]

65. You really shouldn't ...

... have shoved them in there in the first place.

[PosterChild]

102. Pics or it didn't happen! eom

[litlbilly]

22. Bernie is the only one who will get repub votes, Hillary will not, its that simple

[Amimnoch]

32. If he's so Republican beloved.. then perhaps he should run in the Republican party.

I hear they're actually looking for a good candidate.

[litlbilly]

59. Well, Hillary is actually a republican lite, so she should join them :)

[Amimnoch]

85. You disciples of Bernie really should get together and get the story straight.

You say Bernie is the one who can win over the Republicans, but Hillary is the one who is Republican Light?

Really mate.. take a step back.. take a deep breath.. reread what you post.. and give it a bit more thought.

This is starting to sound something along the lines of a Sarah Palin line of thought.. it just isn't making sense.

[treestar]

87. good point, don't know why anyone thinks that Bernie winning Republicans is a good argument

First thing that comes to mind is how could that be true? What Bernie wants is anathema to Republicans.

[Perogie]

90. Grow up

[Amimnoch]

95. Irony?

[redstateblues]

34. Republicans love Socialism not Capitalism!

[redstateblues]

35. Republicans love Socialism not Capitalism!

[99th_Monkey]

99. About 20% of Republican still remember & love the party of Ike, Wayne Morse & Mark Hatfield

There used to be Republican politicians who still had a conscience and a shred of integrity.

Bernie appeals to GOP voters who remember and identify with this ^. That's how he gets 25%
of the GOP vote in Vermont.

[Duval]

25. Feel the Bern!

[a2liberal]

37. Well duh

I could've told you thata few months ago just from talking to people (busy right now, see my other posts but short story is across the political spectrum many more people would vote for Bernie than Hillary, and not a single one that I've talked to would vote for Hillary but not for Bernie)

[iandhr]

44. I would be wary

Putting too much stock in national polls at this juncture either supporters of Clinton or Sanders. If we remember there was a time when Dukakis had a 17 point lead over George HW Bush

[SoapBox]

47. Yup.

...hmmm, no alert yet on the OP? Just a matter of time, if history is an indicator.

[MaggieD]

48. LOL - no

Not after they get done with the socialist attack, the out of wedlock child attack, the old rape essay, and the divorces. And that is not even mentioning his $18 trillion in spending, which is underestimating them if anything.

[Matariki]

51. I'm sure you'll be leading the charge. 'lol'

[senz]

74. I'd imagine so.

How anyone could dislike Bernie is beyond me, but there it is.

[Matariki]

49. Hopefully this will influence voters

who are only supporting Clinton because they think she has a better chance.

[Gamecock Lefty]

50. More SHOCK and STUNNING News for Bernie!!!

Poor ol angry Bernie ain't getting out of the primary alive!!!

Dems are solidifying their support and we're behind Hillary! Maybe some Ben and Jerry's will help ease his pain?

[NJCher]

52. Fox News

This is interesting, because I saw a poll somewhere in my reading that Fox reported saying pretty much the same thing. It was in the last couple days. I didn't post it, though, because Fox has no credibility here.


Cher

[uberblonde]

53. That's not what the poll says.

There's a 3-4% margin of error. Hillary Clinton beats all the Republican candidates by virtually the same numbers.

[Android3.14]

55. So the question is...

Given that they both can beat the Republicans, do you support a living wage? Do you oppose the IWR? Do you want a President unbeholden to Wall Street? Do you support free public college?

During the primary, a vote for the lesser of two evils is unnecessary. Support the candidate that reflects your values, has the best chances of invigorating the party, has the most enthusiastic supporters, can get out the vote and who can help us to retake the Senate and (dare we dream?) the House.

If Clinton wins the primary, then vote for her in the GE. But until then, Sanders is the one who has your back.

[senz]

75. ^^^ This ^^^

Thank you, Android3.14. I wish everyone would read what you wrote.

[reformist2]

56. But Bernie always does better than Hillary - that is significant.

[NoMoreRepugs]

54. HRC vs Sanders statistics didn't impress me much - what did was

that either DEM candidate would defeat RUBIO by only 1 point...

I am officially terrified.

[senz]

76. Rubio is such a kiss-up pandering little twerp.

I have a feeling either of our candidates could wipe the floor with him.

[Enthusiast]

57. Kicked and recommended!

[MADem]

58. This is the same "writer" who accused Trump of being a "Hillary plant."

http://thehill.com/opinion/brent-budowsky/250445-brent-budowsky-is-trump-a-clinton-plant

He needs to put a lot of quotes around his "if this thesis turns out to be true" caveat.

He's all over the page with his "ideas." FWIW, he's plainly partisan.

[NorthCarolina]

61. I predict Sanders in a landslide victory.

Western Illinois University Predicts a Bernie Sanders Victory in 2016

[WillyT]

62. I Remember That...

[NorthCarolina]

64. It is becoming painfully obvious that Bernie will prevail.

Hillary supporters I suspect are feeling it as well judging by their posts of late.

[senz]

79. I hope, hope, hope you are prescient, NorthCarolina.

(Would say "hope and pray" but don't want to disturb our local atheists, most of whom I like very much.)

Yes, Hillarians (Hillaristas? Hillaryites?) behave in mystifying ways. Normally when one is certain of victory, it brings out a jolly, kindly attitude toward the perceived losers, but these folks act as though they find their own certainty grating.

But if they sense Bernie's true populist strength, well, that might explain it.

[Samantha]

63. This is exactly what I have been saying all along

and that is why I dismiss the polling numbers constantly flung in our faces.

Sam

[Douglas Carpenter]

68. knr

[blackspade]

69. He may be the most electable...

But he doesn't control the DNC machinery, the debate schedule, or the money class.
Clinton, on the other hand, does. Which means that even with all of her advantages, she is still not the most electable to the general election voter.
The irony is that in their quest for bragging rights, her supporters lower the chances of a general election victory with Clinton's nomination.
I guess we will see where the cards fall. Hopefully not over a cliff into GOP hell.

[seabeyond]

72. He can't even get close to Clinton in the primary. I think that is opposite of electable.

[Cheese Sandwich]

73. I guess people will vote for a socialist. Not too shabby Bernie.

[hrmjustin]

77. Actually I am happy he is polling well in a general.

If he wins the nomination I want him to win a general.

I support Hillary but if he wins I will happily support him.

[Uncle Joe]

83. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, WillyT.

[raouldukelives]

94. K&R nt

[ViseGrip]

101. Well...of course he is!