Obama opens up six-point lead on Romney nationally (ABC News/Washington Post poll)...

[Drunken Irishman]

Boosted by improved public confidence in his economic stewardship, President Obama for the first time holds a clear edge over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in a hypothetical general-election matchup, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Romney, who notched his second consecutive victory Saturday by easily winning the Nevada caucuses, continues to solidify his position as the front-runner in the race for the GOP nomination. But as the contest has grown more negative, public impressions of the top Republican contenders have soured, as has the former Massachusetts governor’s standing as a general-election candidate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-holds-edge-over-romney-in-general-election-matchup-poll-finds/2012/02/05/gIQA5JX0sQ_story.html?tid=wp_ipad

Last month, Romney led Obama 48-46 in this same poll.

[bluestateguy]

1. This is either February 1980 or February 1996

I'll let you figure out what analogy I am suggesting here.

[denem]

3. More like February 1984

When the (Dem) establishment rammed Mondale down the throats of a unenthusiastic base.

Add in some populism Fritz: I will raise your taxes. Mitt I will cut millionaire's taxes.

And an 'Morning in America' recovery, and the shoes fit very well.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Good point...

Obama won't win universally every state in November because the dynamics just aren't the same anymore (more divided as a country than in '84 - where states like New York & California, solidly Democratic now, could actually go Republican), but I think there is the potential for an even more decisive victory than what he saw in '08.

Of course, the potential is there for struggle, especially if the economy slows down between now and election day. BUT, your Reagan comparison is a big one because he has shown the path charted to victory with high unemployment rate.

It's all about the direction and not necessarily the now. With Reagan, unemployment had dropped from 10% to 7.4% in a year. With Obama, unemployment just a year ago was pushing 10%, and now it's down to 8.3. Can it push into the 7s? A few months ago, that seemed almost impossible - but so did 8.3.

If unemployment dips below 8% by election day, Obama will win in a landslide.

[denem]

8. "It's all about the direction" Spot on,

and I'll add something else, the participation rate. As people come back into the jobs market, the reduction (if any) of the unemployment rate stalls, but at the same time, people know friends and family who have finally got back in work.

I'm no statistician, but one of the things analysts said about the 257,000 Private jobs added in January were that it was top to bottom - in all sectors (even housing an manufacturing), at all income levels, not a minimum wage 'rocovery'.

I agree that are many caveats, but if say unemployment is 7.8, and the economy is giving every appearance of roaring ahead, Mitt's case as a turnaround specialist falls apart,

and Obama's 'An America Built to Last' bites.

Sorry. my writing always sounds like a polemic. Like Mitt, I just can't help it.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. If we average 150,000 jobs a month until election day, he'll be golden...

The higher the job numbers go, the better he looks.

The good news? We've been above 150,000 4 of the last 5 months (three straight months) and five of the last seven months.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. I hear ya'...

Of course, in February 1980, Carter was still feeling the positive 'rally around the flag' effect of the Iran hostage crisis, which had occurred the November prior. His approval rating prior to the hostage situation was in the low 30s, high 20s, where Pres. Obama has never, ever reached. So, it's hard to compare the two, mostly because Carter just couldn't sustain those numbers. He was an extremely disliked president prior to the hostage situation and became just as disliked the longer the crisis extended - as he was back down to the 30s by March.

I don't expect, unless the economy collapses, Obama will sniff the 30s - and he hasn't. The lowest average Obama has reached is about 43%. Not great, mind you, but not nearly the level Carter saw leading up to '80 (Carter's lowest total was 28% in June '79).

My guess is that it'll either be like '96 or '04...maybe somewhere in between.

[denem]

5. 1984.

Mitt is Fritz.

[MarianJack]

7. One thing that damaged Jimmy Carter BADLY was...

...a political ploy that his campaign pulled after Ted Kennedy had won a few primaries in a row.

When Ted had pulled either very close or into a small lead in a couple of primary states, there started to be buzz about an ommenent breakthrough in the hostage crisis that just happened to "fall apart" right after those states were declard for Carter.

Ted Kennedy labeled it as the most cynical thing he'd ever seen in politics. As a Kennedy '80 Democrat, I agreed. I remember a cartoon a couple of days later of Carter looking over the White House fence and seeing a huge billboard showing "Hostage Families for reagan".

It took me years to respect Jimmy Carter again. The one lesson I learned from 1980 however, is just how malignant party disunity can be. I haven't fallen into THAT trap since and never will again. I can't think of any election year when our worst wasn't better than their best.

PEACE!

[denem]

10. Heh. The GOP is getting a taste of "just how malignant party disunity can be"

[MarianJack]

12. Yep!

I'm enjoying it straight to the bone, too.

PEACE!

[Cali_Democrat]

2. This is why Obama will win reelection

"By better than 2 to 1, Americans say the more they learn about Romney, the less they like him"

There it is. The more you see Romney, the more you don't like him. His comments about the poor, his offshore bank accounts, his $10,000 bet, his claim that corporations are people etc...etc.

Romney is trying to run as a CEO that "knows" how the economy works. My ass. He just wants to get in there so he can give more tax breaks to his millionaire and billionaire friends.

Mitt Romney is nothing more than a banker Trojan Horse. A "gift" from the bankers. They're trying to install him as President with hundreds of millions in Super PAC money. If he's elected, I would consider it a defacto bankster coup.

[Denninmi]

16. Yes, and we need to keep shouting Romney's negatives from the rooftops.

10 months is a long, long time. We all know it's going to be really, really ugly, and tremendous money will be spent on Romney's behalf. Some will go towards tearing down Pres. Obama, but some will go towards the rebranding of Mittens into something more "user friendly" to the masses. Whether or not they'll buy the lies is hard to say, it does happen.

NEVER stop pounding on this man to every single person you know who will listen. Shout it from the rooftops if you have to.

[MarianJack]

9. I'd say that the conditions are like 1984,...

...but I expect the margin to be like 1996.

I believe that President Obama will win by wider popular and electoral vote margins than in 2008, but I don't think he'll get to that 10%+ margin that I personally hold as the least to be classified as a landslide. I hope I'm wrong about that because baun romney, little ricky or the 1 man 2 woman marriage guy severely deserve to be landslided into political oblivion.

PEACE!

[still_one]

13. Do these polls take in the electoral college votes, because if they don't they are meaningless /nt

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Why are they meaningless?

I get we don't elect our presidents via popular vote, but it most certainly gives you an idea of the mood of the country and what to expect on election day. If Obama beats Romney by six points nationally, the electoral college won't matter because it's almost impossible for Romney to win enough electoral votes to win the election with that type of national deficit.

So, no, it's not meaningless at all.

[still_one]

20. Because of nixon's southern strategy. What southern states do you think are in the bag for Obama?

I am not trying to be argumentative, just asking for your impression

My impression is that the south has moved further to the right, and with the republicans forcing redistricting in many states, it leaves us vulnerable

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Who said any of the southern states were in the bag?

But, since you asked, I think Obama has a strong shot of taking Virginia, North Carolina and Florida - or at least one of those states.

Regardless, the national polls point to Obama winning in an electoral landslide. If he wins the national popular vote by six points in November, his path to victory will mirror 2008. You're not going to trounce in the popular vote like that and lose the election. Even Al Gore, who won the popular vote, but lost the electoral college, still only managed to beat Bush by less than a percentage point (.5 to be exact) and his national victory was only 544,000 votes.

That's why national polls matter. If you're winning by six nationally, you're probably taking a couple of those southern states and most every swing state. Unless Obama racks 70-80% of the vote in states like California or New York, it's almost impossible for Obama to lose in '12 with a popular vote exceeding 5%.

[davidpdx]

15. I just read this on Yahoo

It's great news. I'm just crossing my fingers that there are no international incidents during the next 9 months.

[Arneoker]

17. One way this is different from 1980

In 1980 Reagan had a reputation of being an extremist, but he managed to convince people that he was more moderate than the Carter people would have had them believe. This year Romney has a reputation of being a moderate, but I think that the Obama people can convince people that he has some significant extremist positions and show how he has made some extremist statements.

[Robbins]

18. Obama

This Is like 1984/1996.Going Into primarys Democrats thought they could beat reagan.

Now the margain will be like Clinton VS Dole.No way In hell for the massaive landslide Reagan won.

The Improving economy and the more people see Romney the less they like him Is helping Obama.And Obama hasn't even campagined
against Romney yet.Having rewatched the frst Obama-Mccain debate last night I can safely say Obama will eat Romney In a debate.
Obama beat Mccain who beat Romney In 2008.And this time romney will have someone disputing his lies and bring up his record at
BainCapital and as Governor to show his real business record and his flipflopping.

With strong support from Hispnaics Obama could lose indiana to Mccain but pick up Arizona.There Is possabilty of reverse of 2008 where
he barely lost Missouri to Mccain and this time he barely wins over romney In Missouri.

Arizona and Missouri are only Mccain states that I could see flipping.Indiana Is the Obama state I see flipping to Romney.

[Johnny2X2X]

19. Bias

Here's what I've heard already, "this poll is totally biased, it means nothing!!!" 'We need to see what Rasmussen says, they are the only fair and reliable poll!!!" When it's pointed out that Rasmussen has him up by 7 on the Mitt there is silence.

I will not be satisfied with a mere Obma victory, I want to sweep to a majority in the House while holding the Senate. It's our time to take our country back.

[JTFrog]

22. k&DUrec