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Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:45 AM

 

A couple interesting takeaways from the latest Monmouth Iowa poll.

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9a435a5e-2c3d-4b5d-b0ea-a45c5192af0a.pdf

Regardless of your feelings on the methodology, there were a few paragraphs that I haven't seen mentioned in any of the threads related to this poll.

Among past primary voters only, Clinton currently leads Sanders by a larger 27 point margin – 57% to 30%. Still, this is down from the 65% to 24% lead she held among this particular electorate in Monmouth’s last poll which was taken shortly after the first Democratic candidate debate, Clinton’s Benghazi Committee appearance, and Joe Biden’s decision not to run


So going by Monmouth's previous metrics, Bernie has gained 6 points on Hillary for a 14 point swing since late October. Then there's this:

Recognizing the historical volatility in Democratic caucus turnout, Monmouth tested a few vote simulations in addition to the reported projection above. Increasing the model to a turnout of approximately 150,000 voters – which would be the second highest turnout on record – would slightly narrow Clinton’s lead over Sanders to 19 points (54% to 35%). Increasing it still further to approximately 200,000 voters – near 2008’s all-time high – would shrink Clinton’s lead to 13 points (51% to 38%)


The more people show up to vote the better Bernie does. Iowa is going to be close, and with most people yet to make up their minds about who they support it appears that anything could happen.

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Reply A couple interesting takeaways from the latest Monmouth Iowa poll. (Original post)
HerbChestnut Dec 2015 OP
MADem Dec 2015 #1
HerbChestnut Dec 2015 #2
MADem Dec 2015 #4
SheilaT Dec 2015 #3
HerbChestnut Dec 2015 #5

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:48 AM

1. Could you edit, and include the LINK to the poll? TIA. nt

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Response to MADem (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:51 AM

2. Done

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:59 AM

4. Thanks! nt

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Wed Dec 9, 2015, 12:59 AM

3. Past primary voters, as if no new voters could possibly

 

have become eligible in the past 8 years. What an interesting assumption.

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Response to SheilaT (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 9, 2015, 01:04 AM

5. To be fair

 

They essentially did two polls. One with only past primary voters and another with "anybody". This included people who said they'd be registering on the night of the caucus. How they found those people I have no idea, but there it is.

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