2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs anyone else as frightened as I am?
I remember back during the 1980s Donald Trump was just someone with too much mouth, ego and money for his own good, not to mention couldn't keep a marriage going. Just someone for that odious TV abomination "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous," complete with Robin Leach's bullhorn piehole.
But now...I do not think I have been as scared (yes, scared) as I am over a candidate who is probably certifiably batshit ending up running this country.
His poll numbers climb and climb every day...the more outrageous he is the higher he goes. He has tapped into the bald hatred and racism that has festered ever since Barack Obama became President ("and that wasn't supposed to happen...a biracial man, who wasn't even born in this country, into the WHITE House, forcing Socialist, Communist, Marxist, Maoist and anything Un-American down our throats!" . It's been like a boil growing under the skin of the country and I fear that if he is elected (or somehow forces his way into office) that boil will explode.
Yes, there have been oddballs running before...David Duke, Pat Buchanan. But none of them ever made it to this level in the primaries as Trumpetmouth has. The guy has all that the far right has been looking for to "even the score" and "take 'our' country back."
Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, John McCain, even Sarah Palin were relatively harmless compared to this man.
I would say he is more dangerous than George W. Bush or Dick Cheney ever were. Why? GWB couldn't construct a coherent sentence if he tried and Cheney was the "man behind the curtain." Trump knows how to gin people up just the way horrible people in history (Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, etc.) knew how to. Watch some video of Trump rallies then watch newsreels of Nuremburg rallies.
I am probably more afraid than I have been in my almost 50 years. I am afraid as well that if he DOESN'T win through the electoral process, his disciples will try some sort of coup d'etat. With all the guns and hatred they have, it could happen. The Klan, neo-Nazis, "militias"...so many of them support this man.
When he entered the race I thought "OK, there are hopefully enough sensible people left in the Republican Party to see what a crack-brained so-and-so this guy is."
I have been terribly wrong. Anyway, even if he starts dropping in the primaries and doesn't get the Republican nomination, he says he'll go independent, and I think MSNBC said something like 68% of his followers will go with him.
I live within walking distance of the Canadian border. I have tried speaking to my wife about trying to claim political refugee status if he is elected. However, she is the eternal optimist and doesn't think he stands a chance, plus she says "we've got a house, mortgage, cat, I have a good job, etc...we can't just drop all that."
I could. Except for my wife and cat. If I were single, I would probably be preparing for it already.
However, Canada is very hard to get legal residency in, unless you are a citizen of another Commonwealth country, have a written job offer (I'm a disabled veteran) or have immediate family there (I have second-cousin level family around Kitchener, Ontario, which isn't close enough), OR are a legitimate political refugee. A few years ago I even talked to an immigration officer there asking if joining the Canadian Armed Forces would help. He said I would FIRST have to get landed-immigrant status before being eligible to join...and then I could only join as a reservist until I got citizenship (which takes five years). He also told me it would be likely I would lose my U.S. citizenship since I would be taking an oath to a foreign monarch (all Canadian troops have to swear an oath of allegiance to Queen Elizabeth II) which would leave me stateless.
Every night I have started praying for divine intervention to stop this man, and every day he goes up-and-up-and-up in the poll numbers.
I am a disabled veteran and not in good health. I served in the Air Force/Air National Guard. The thought of a President Trump using the Armed Forces I served in to enforce his will scares the hell out of me.
I know the first primary is several months away, but if his poll numbers aren't dropping now, with all the outrageous things he's said, what hope is there that they will fall by the time NH, Iowa etc come around?
I am supporting Bernie Sanders in the primaries but if he doesn't get the nomination I will throw my support behind Hillary.
However, even as intelligent and experienced as she is, I don't think she can overcome the juggernaut this man has become.
Even now, thinking about 20 January 2017 with Trumpetmouth seizing power, my heart is racing.
Is anyone else feeling what I'm feeling?
riversedge
(70,174 posts)not seems to climb any higher.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Percentage wise, he has even less support nationally when you factor in Dems.
Freelancer
(2,107 posts)Also, even if he isn't the primary winner, he has the supporters and the cash to exert his will on any potential Republican President going into the future. He may not be president, but could have a veto.
If you have French, or Swedish ancestry, you might be able to apply for citizenship and eventually become a citizen if you learn the language. That probably goes for some other European countries as well -- dunno.
Bonne chance!
DissidentVoice
(813 posts)I am of Swiss-German/Alsatian ancestry on my paternal side (and speak fluent German), and my paternal great-grandmother was born in Canada, but none of those countries regard me as being close enough to immigrate (I've checked).
On my mother's side I am largely of Scots-Irish ancestry but not close enough to convince Belfast, Dublin or Edinburgh to let me in...
Freelancer
(2,107 posts)It's worth checking.
Ino
(3,366 posts)or whoever is the Repuke nominee. She will lose the GE.
brooklynite
(94,452 posts)...the visceral hatred some people claim exists isn't more expansive than that for a Black Muslim who won two elections...
...and nominating trump would push a fair chunk of the 2/3 of Republicans who don't support him into her corner.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)"Vote for HRC and let the country slide right into fascism"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=6660544
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)I don't think she understands technology well enough to be president with a position like that.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)She'll lose Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado. She has no way to win without some combination of three of those four states.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)rpannier
(24,329 posts)Trump is toxic with every group except for xenophobic, racist whites
North Carolina has a large number of PoC.
He won't win Colorado. Anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves
Ohio... If he can beat her, then he beats Sanders and O' Malley
He won't win Florida either
If he gets the nomination (and that's a big 'if' still) the Republican Party will do what they did in 96, Jettison the loser at the top of the ticket and spend their money and time saving those further down.
DissidentVoice
(813 posts)The South, where hatred for Obama and "birthers" (remember, Trump is one) seems the most visceral.
Indiana (my birthplace, and where I lived until 2007) would very likely go for Trump. Outside the major cities/university cities (Indianapolis, South Bend, Fort Wayne, Lafayette, Bloomington, etc.), Indiana is very, very much more like the Deep South than it is the Great Lakes. Indiana is almost robotically Republican, except for LBJ (1968) and Obama (2008, which surprised me no end).
Michigan, where I live, could be a tossup, but he doesn't stand to do well in metro areas, especially metro Detroit, with its very large Arab-American populace.
Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, the Dakotas, Texas, the Southwest, would almost be in the bag for him, simply because they're probably as robotically Republican as Indiana (I have relatives in Kansas).
The only places where I see him having problems would be the Northeast and the West Coast.
rpannier
(24,329 posts)Indiana will likely depend on Lake County as it did in '08. If Lake County comes out big (and it is the most Democratic portion of the state by % and voting history) any of the 3 Democrats running will likely win the state
I don't think Michigan is much of a toss-up, but I could be off on that. The Democrats do well in Presidential years and weak in off year.
I don't see Trump winning any state that Obama won twice and that seems to be the narrative of the above. Obama won Florida, Ohio and Colorado both times. The nominee whoever it is will as well.
DissidentVoice
(813 posts)I was born and raised there for 41 of my almost-50 years, albeit in the north (just east of South Bend).
However, my mother was from Henry County, further south, between Indianapolis and the Ohio line, and my wife is from Clay County, further south yet, between Indianapolis and Terre Haute.
Except in places like South Bend, Indianapolis, Bloomington (home of Indiana University and so much like another COUNTRY, yet alone being in the same STATE it's almost surreal - my aunt was a librarian at IU many years ago) and, yes, Lake County (location of Gary, which with an African-American population of 84.8% and probably the most pro-union county in otherwise very anti-union Indiana, is admittedly very unlikely to be hospitable to Republicans in general - incidentally, my mother lived there before I was born) - which is really best considered as being part of metro Chicago proper - culturally, Indiana is a lot more like Kentucky, Tennessee or the extreme south of Ohio.
The first "Rush Room" in the country is credited as being in Mishawaka, about 20 minutes from where I was born and raised.
I lived in Clay County for six years after my wife and I were married...and even though I was born and raised in Indiana I was regarded as almost a foreigner (my almost-Chicago accent gave me away) because I was from "up north." I remember a fair amount of Confederate flags and Klan membership wasn't something one usually tried to hide, like the odd "WHITE POWER" front licence plate. Those would be prime Trumpetheads.
Even though I grew up about 10 minutes' drive from the Michigan line (where a lot of people went to buy booze on Sunday since Indiana doesn't allow Sunday sales of alcohol), and used to go to places like Kalamazoo a lot for rock gigs (Black Sabbath and Kansas among them), living here is really different than just living close to it. Rick Snyder, for all his libertarian-wing-of-the-GOP faults, would be considered a "RINO" in Indiana. Of course, living within walking distance of the Canadian border has a very moderating influence, except for the district thank-God-she's-retiring GOP Congresswoman Candice Miller. I do see Michigan as being more likely to go for Hillary Clinton because of the metro areas - but I still hear a lot of locals agreeing with Trump (though that diminishes rapidly the closer one gets to Detroit).
I do remember Democratic Governors like ex-Senator Evan Bayh, Frank O'Bannon and Joe Kernan (ex-South Bend mayor who filled out the rest of the late O'Bannon's term but got skunked by Mitch Daniels in 2004), and my Congressman for several terms was Tim Roemer (really a good guy, I met him several times) but all of them were mostly even to the right of the DLC zeitgeist. Before Roemer, the Congressman was "Reagan robot" John Hiler, and afterward Chris Chocola (Club For Growth). An FDR New Deal Democrat wouldn't stand a fart's chance in a hurricane in Indiana. I actually knew people who voted Republican "because my daddy and grand-daddy did, and if it was good enough for them it's good enough for me!"
However, I do have to give some props to ex-GOP Senator Richard Lugar. I corresponded with him regularly on various issues, and although we seldom agreed, he was never anything less than a gentleman of the old school to me and encouraged me to keep in contact with him. Of course, he got ousted by Tea Party cuckoo clock Richard Mourdock, but thank God he didn't win the general election.
Chelsea Clinton spoke somewhere in my former state a few years ago (this was after I moved so I don't know exactly where) and some RW nut started going off on her about Monica Lewinsky. Fortunately, Chelsea handled it like the graceful young woman she has become, just saying "I do not believe you asked me that. Next question please!"
Really the only areas of my birth state I could see NOT going for Trump would be much of Indianapolis, most of South Bend, Bloomington, parts of Fort Wayne (though military influence is strong there, because of my old ANG unit, the 122nd Tactical Fighter Wing, and unfortunately the military is increasingly Republican, though when I was in the 122nd politics were rarely discussed), parts of Lafayette (Purdue University). Evansville may as well be in Kentucky.
As well, as with almost anywhere, the big business interests in Indiana, the anti-union bent of the state (when I lived in Clay County there was a very, very active, successful union-busting campaign against the workers at the Great Dane semi-trailer factory forming a union) the lingering animosity toward Bill Clinton (it's there, believe it) are going to support almost any Republican.
rpannier
(24,329 posts)President Clinton
Sen Sanders... Pres Sanders
O' Malley... Pres O' Malley
My Cat... Hello Pres Cat
Trump turns off Hispanics, African-Americans, Asians (both western and eastern)
I don't get the delusional who see him winning against any candidate short of Tom Metzger with D next to their name
There aren't enough crazy whites clowns to make-up for the whites who won't vote for him combined with the numbers of PoC
riversedge
(70,174 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... funny!
bahrbearian
(13,466 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)Ino
(3,366 posts)MeNMyVolt
(1,095 posts)and it saddens me that a good 25% of the country is bat-shit crazy, but Trump will not get the nomination, and if he did, would get creamed in the GE. I worry more about Rubio. Especially a Rubio/Kasich ticket.
Still, a good post, and I will K&R it.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Don't fret...Hillary will hand Trump his ass...
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)He has zero chance of winning.
rpannier
(24,329 posts)His numbers are rising
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)rpannier
(24,329 posts)I'm sure he scores pretty equal numbers with African-Americans and Asians (of all regions)
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)According to a 1990 Vanity Fair interview, Ivana Trump once told her lawyer Michael Kennedy that her husband, real-estate mogul Donald Trump, now a leading Republican presidential candidate, kept a book of Hitler's speeches near his bed.
"Last April, perhaps in a surge of Czech nationalism, Ivana Trump told her lawyer Michael Kennedy that from time to time her husband reads a book of Hitler's collected speeches, My New Order, which he keeps in a cabinet by his bed ... Hitler's speeches, from his earliest days up through the Phony War of 1939, reveal his extraordinary ability as a master propagandist," Marie Brenner wrote.
Hitler was one of history's most prolific orators, building a genocidal Nazi regime with speeches that bewitched audiences.
http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8
DissidentVoice
(813 posts)Especially given the fact that Adolf was quite likely of partially-Czech descent, which of course was suppressed.
Manifestor_of_Light
(21,046 posts)Check out this gem of a song:
In a hamlet in the Tyrol
an old lady is not virile
She is languishing and heavy is her heart
For she thinks about her baby who,
had he been christened Abie,
maybe might have never
played the monster's part.
If her son had only married,
if her lust had not miscarried,
Who can say for certain
What might not have been?
In her somber weeds of sorrow
she is hopeful some tomorrow
will undo the passion
that produced a sin.
In his youth his one obsession
was to practice a profession
and he dabbled with the palette
and the paint.
But the art he couldn't master
so he went from paint to plaster
and today he calls himself
a plaster saint.
Is he good or evil fairy?
All his pals have now grown wary
that is, those of them who
didn't rate the purge.
And the scent will ever linger,
how he gave his friends the finger
just to gratify and culminate an urge.
Refrain:
Schickelgruber, Schickelgruber,
you were born a child of shame,
you have always been a bastard
even though you changed your name.
Came the headlines,
then the breadlines,
as your will to power grew,
Schickelgruber! Schickelgruber!
What a pretty howdy-do!
Though a mother,
I can smother
Mother love at thought of you!
Schickelgruber! Schickelgruber!
Once the dew was on the rose,
where you'll end up
in the wind up
Schickelgruber, Heaven knows.
Ever ruthless, ever truthless
When the judgment day is due
Repercussions
From the Russians
Schickelgruber, say you're through.
Every village
that you pillage
in revenge,
will turn on you!
Schickelgruber, art song by Kurt Weill and Howard Dietz, 1942.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Take her advice and chill.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)That's when I got a lot more concerned.
Look how far we've come.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141285425
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Hillary will be our next President and things will improve for us all.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)I wish we could talk a few years from now to see who was right.
Maybe we will
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)He would NEVER be able to get 270 electoral college votes.
He might win a few of the craziest of the red states. But not many.
And he'd lose all the purple states.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)i have thought from the beginning that trump would be the nom and could very well become president. i still believe that.
but i also believe that there are enough non lunatics that we will survive. we will help each other. call me a hippie, fine. but we will rely on mother earth. those of us who can will go into the woods and grow our food. we will form underground communities with people of all skill types and levels. we will share, we will barter. we will survive. until the climate makes the earth uninhabitable for humans and most life.
then, sadly, the problem will solve itself.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)In all honesty, Trump would be crushed by any of the Democratic candidates. Like landslide levels of crushed. It'd take another 9/11 scale event to make him a genuine danger in the general.
artislife
(9,497 posts)DissidentVoice
(813 posts)I almost put it in General Discussion.
The reason I put it here was because a lot of my worries see Trumpetmouth's poll numbers rising, and we haven't even got to primary season yet.
artislife
(9,497 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)The rightwing will destroy him 24/7 with tv ads. Hillary knows how to fight against the vast rightwing conspiracy, both in the media and in politics.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)Wanna know why?
Because one of his FIRST direct messages to his followers were, "don't trust the media." and since then, part of his entire campaign is built STRONGLY on the distrust of mass media.
As such, and I'm sure you've noticed, many Bernie supporters don't take anything at face value. The people that WILL believe the anti bernie ads, are gullible enough to have never voted for Bernie to begin with. The rest of the populous, would ignore it.
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Lazy Daisy
(928 posts)In fact they show Bernie beating Trump more than Hillary. So if you want to vote for the candidate who is MORE likely to win against the Republicans, you'd vote for Bernie Sanders.
rpannier
(24,329 posts)Because there's been nothing that has shown Trump beating Bernie
And it's more likely that the rightwing will do what it did in 96 and dump the guy at the top of the ticket and save their candidates further down the line
retrowire
(10,345 posts)I've also talked with my wife about emigrating to the motherland, Ireland. Canada is our first choice though. Being so close, and I've spent 2 weeks there before. Wonderful country.
I've had plenty of conversations with local Bernie fans. But it's the one or two people I've heard say, "Trump is at least telling it like it is. I like that." that really worry me.
awoke_in_2003
(34,582 posts)have heard far too many people I had previously thought sane utter these words
retrowire
(10,345 posts)Hearing your boss say it.
ErikJ
(6,335 posts)I think he'd be better than any of the other Republicans but I think he just may run as 3rd party splitting the vote or better yet, destroying the GOP.
DissidentVoice
(813 posts)Why on earth would someone posting on DU be rooting for this man?
ErikJ
(6,335 posts)Destroy the GOP brand anyway so the Congress goes all Dem.
MADem
(135,425 posts)First, the GOP superdelegates (they call him something else) will not allow him to be nominated, and second, they'll bully the candidates into taking putative cabinet appointments in exchange for getting in line.
Third, if the worst happened and Trump managed to bribe the party elders (fat chance), AND persuade the American people that a talented and experienced former SECSTATE with a very experienced spouse was not the best choice for America, the Presidency is not a Kingdom. The President's powers are fairly limited. Without Congress, there's not much s/he can do, and there's much Congress can do to override him or her.
valerief
(53,235 posts)I don't believe he'll do anything he says. Trump will do what he's told, and he'll listen to someone different from whom the other GOP prez candies take their marching orders from. And they take their orders from the worst of the worst. Therefore, Trump can only be less worse.
I'm afraid of KKKongress and SKKKOTUS
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)But, if Bernie does not get the nomination, I will hasten my emigration plans. I am not sure political refugee status will work. I may try to get it.
Ichingcarpenter
(36,988 posts)gets to the front page on DU and my post never did
with twice the records
DissidentVoice
(813 posts)I rarely post on DU, certainly not as much as I used.
I had no idea/intention/whatever of my post making front-page.
I have even less desire for pissing contests.
Ichingcarpenter
(36,988 posts)carry on
It wasn't an attack on you though you might think it was
Profiles in courage as Kennedy said
carry on.
DissidentVoice
(813 posts)Ichingcarpenter
(36,988 posts)be careful
840high
(17,196 posts)goes on.
mmm413
(185 posts)it's Trump's (and Cruz's) crazy followers who scare the bejeesus out of me.
DissidentVoice
(813 posts)...but Trump's, yes.
I could see them trying something violent if Trump doesn't get the presidency.
MeNMyVolt
(1,095 posts)A lot of people haven't.
kairos12
(12,849 posts)60s and early 70s (Kent State and Nixon) was far more worrisome than today. Take a breath and I wish you well.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Back in the '60s and early '70s, we at least had a mostly liberal Democratic Congress that could keep Nixon in check, and a mostly liberal Supreme Court as well. Today, wacko Republicans control nearly everything, and rather than escalating a war in SE Asia, they are talking of escalating wars in SW Asia.
DVRacer
(707 posts)Say he wins the GOP and Hillary wins ours.
Then later on the FBI pursues charges against Hillary then what?
I would put those odds low but not out of the realm of possibility. Her lying is a huge issue and liability that we can ill afford.
okasha
(11,573 posts)Trump's alleged ties with the Russian Mob, and thus with Putin?
The real Republican power players are not going to allow Trump's nomination. He'd cause a stampede of Republican support over to Hillary because the great majority of Republican voters are neither devils nor maniacs, and Trump scares the bejesus out of them, too.
cheapdate
(3,811 posts)Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)The only people they've been fooling are Republican voters and they aren't *really* fooled, the dog whistles just give them a figurative fig leaf to hide behind.
Now Trump has snatched away the fig leaf and the Republicans are simultaneously both appalled and fascinated, it's a part of their nature and the fascination of the Trump-curious will overcome the shock.
Bonhomme Richard
(9,000 posts)I know that wasn't helpful
mmm413
(185 posts)is Trump's followers. Even if he doesn't get elected (crossed fingers), those crazies are still out there. He's struck a really hateful chord with people who haven't been able to accept a person of color being in the White House. The GOP has created a monster and I fear what will happen next.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)Though I admit not having a TV helps
dlwickham
(3,316 posts)the primaries maybe but not the GE
I find it amusing that everyone is losing his/her mind over this
Jester Messiah
(4,711 posts)Vote for what you know is right. Everything else flows from that.
valerief
(53,235 posts)You must take a stand against yearning.
This quest never ends. It is time to take knowledge to the next level. The universe is approaching a tipping point.
Where there is yearning, chi cannot thrive. Yes, it is possible to extinguish the things that can sabotage us, but not without empathy on our side. We can no longer afford to live with discontinuity.
Greed is born in the gap where rebirth has been excluded. You may be ruled by ego without realizing it. Do not let it extinguish the growth of your journey. Without karma, one cannot grow.
It is in awakening that we are aligned.
Turbulence is the antithesis of truth. Only an entity of the quantum soup may harmonize this current of rebirth. The complexity of the present time seems to demand an awakening of our dreams if we are going to survive.
You will soon be aligned by a power deep within yourself a power that is sublime, primordial. Homeopathy may be the solution to whats holding you back from an ecstatic source of guidance. Through crystal healing, our lives are nurtured by love.
And everything flows from that.
Jester Messiah
(4,711 posts)LWolf
(46,179 posts)I don't do fear; it's self-destructive.
I'm determined to prevent a Trump presidency, and I don't believe he can win the presidency. Not legitimately, anyway. If he gets the R nomination, it will be our job to hand him a strong defeat.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)The bastards use fear to control you. Then they fuck you over themselves.
Buy into at your own expense.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)It's not 1933 and it's not Germany.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Fascists thrive on income equality. Sanders will reduce their raison d'être.
There's plenty of opportunity to stop Trump. Voting for Sanders in the primary is the first of many chances we will get. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
Persondem
(1,936 posts)As the little guys and gal drop out of the primary early next year, the "not Trump" vote will start to swing to someone like Cruz, Rubio, Kasich or even Bush (he has $$$). Rubio and especially Cruz are already gaining ground as Carson drops in the polls. Cruz is scary in a different way and Rubio is not quite ready for prime time.
I have also heard commentary relating how voters now are giving knee jerk responses to polls, and when the time comes to cast real votes, few voters will actually want a candidate like Trump anywhere near the nuclear launch codes.
Even if trump does win the nomination we have the "blue wall" of electoral votes which gives Dems a much easier path to 271. I am not sure how well Sanders would do in the South, but Clinton would have a good shot at carrying NC.
Anyways, no need to go jumping to Canada yet.
Freelancer
(2,107 posts)cheapdate
(3,811 posts)Hekate
(90,616 posts)Cruz campaign credits psychological data and analytics for its rising success~~
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cruz-campaign-credits-psychological-data-and-analytics-for-its-rising-success/2015/12/13/4cb0baf8-9dc5-11e5-bce4-708fe33e3288_story.html
Its Cruz, not Trump, who looks more like favorite to win GOP nomination~~
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/its-cruz-not-trump-who-looks-more-like-the-favorite-to-win-gop-primary/2015/12/13/bf8c57de-a1a9-11e5-b53d-972e2751f433_story.html
FSogol
(45,464 posts)Of that 25% of the America population that votes for Repubs, only 27% prefer Trump. Are you really scared of Trump's 6.75% approval by the American Voting population? He's a media creation, less substantial than the hot air he spews. Turn off any show that depicts him and laugh at anyone who takes him seriously.
olddots
(10,237 posts)Most of us here thought it would never happen .
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)gitchel
(68 posts)Trump's method is to gather a particular type of Republican. He is capitalizing on what used to be know as the Silent Majority. When Falwell and Viguerie brought them out of the silence and created the Moral Majority, they became the easily-roused reactionary rabble that could be brought out to steal any election with some connection to anything that could be painted with a racial, pseudo-religious, or nationalistic brush. The GOP eventually came to depend on this group, gerrymandered to include them, and developed techniques to shepherd them - for example, placing pro-abortion referenda on some key ballots to attract large numbers of loonies.
Well, Donald has stolen them. Which means he's stolen 40% of the Republican Party. And probably 60% of the active republican vote. This has made it difficult for the rest of the candidates, since they planned on campaigning to those loonies, and hadn't put together anything substantive that might appeal to the mainstream republicans. Since the loonies vote at a higher rate than the mainstream, this made sense. It's worked that way for decades. But now Donald has them. That's why the other candidates are so quiet right now. They can't create reasonable platforms to attract the mainstream, because they are still hoping to grab the loonies - perhaps Donald will screw the pooch. So we wait. Everyone waits to see what happens to Donald and his crop of brain stems.
If Donald makes it to the convention, and enough other candidates have dropped off the horizon, he may get the nomination, unless the GOP finds a clever workaround - and they will try hard. If Donald gets nominated, it'll be the lowest republican turnout for the general election in decades. Not because of Bernie or Hillary, but because most republicans don't like Donald any more than the rest of us. There's likely to be a massive number of republicans who simply avoid the embarrassment by staying home.
If Donald, or someone else, doesn't get nominated in the first round at the convention, then it's a brokered convention. Then the dealing starts. And we get to see the battle between Money (Donald) and Power (GOP). Should be fascinating.
The scariest outcome of this battle would be if Donald LOST. Then we get Cruz, someone who appeals to most of the mainstream and most of the loonies. If they manage to bring us any of the other viable candidates, it'll be very close. If they bring Cruz, or even Rubio, we are likely to lose big. We might even have to force 20-30% of Democrats to get off their asses and VOTE!
So, you are more reasonable to be afraid of Cruz and Rubio than Donald. But it would be much more sensible to start beating your Democratic (and reasonable Republican) friends over the head about voting, starting right now and continuing right up to after dark on Election Day.
I'm fairly sure we've never lost an election that we couldn't have won with just a few percent more voters.
Turn CO Blue
(4,221 posts)Frankly, he's not looking well. His face gets puffier and redder every day, and he has probably gained 30 pounds the last few months. He will stay in to try to extort some money from someone, and to boost his own ego. But if he begins to think he might fizzle out, he will find a way to go out with a bang.
But that would leave Cruz and Rubio. I think the crazies will go for Cruz because they love crazy zealots -- and the establishment and one-percenters will want Rubio because he is good-looking and will follow orders and will make a good puppet.
I think in a debate, either one, Bernie or Hillary, could rip their brains out and show it to them. Rubio would be awful in a debate; he's rather stupid. Cruz was on the debate team in college; but he risks his smarmy-ness seeping out with every word he utters.