2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLook what a politician who endorsed Clinton--has to say about Bernie Sanders
This is not a slam dunk for her, said former Senator Tom Harkin, who served Iowa in Congress for 40 years, stating flatly that Mr. Sanders could win. Hes got this enthusiasm like Obama did, Mr. Harkin said. The Hillary forces better not sit back.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/us/politics/democratic-dinner-drives-home-hillary-clintons-focus-on-iowa.html?_r=0
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)Won't he be afraid of being on her "enemies list"?
Unless, of course, it doesn't exist.
cali
(114,904 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)sent you an email about it.
fredamae
(4,458 posts)brooklynite
(94,727 posts)fredamae
(4,458 posts)"going with the flow"...supporting the presumptive candidate because folks still care what he thinks? Fearful for the future of his own elected senator/reps? There are likely multiple reasons why any person supports candidate A or B....Did he bother to say when he announced his support for her?
I pay, personally-little to no attention to politicians endorsements for any other politician. With few exceptions they've been disconnected from their own constituents for several decades now,
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)moobu2
(4,822 posts)and she won't.
UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)they hope
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)He has the enthusiasm and not much else. Clinton has to fight and fight smart. So far she is running a masterful campaign. She must keep it up. Our future depends on it.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...because it motivates and propels people to not only volunteer, but to caucus.
It makes a huge difference.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)It also doesn't overcome all. It is a positive for him.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...but I agree with what you are saying. A campaign can have all of the enthusiasm in the world--and it means nothing unless your supporters caucus/vote.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)there are at least three polls of Iowa that puts her squarely in the lead....
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)starting at 0, he's got a bit more than just enthusiasm. I mean, isn't he about to break the record for individual donors? But what do I know?
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)because it is one of the few positives. It tells almost nothing. Sanders did not start at zero. That simply isn't true. If that is the case, we must say that Clinton started at zero. When I say not much else, I am obviously comparing his campaign to Clintons. He doesn't have the money she has, the team she has, the network she has, the endorsements she has, the poll numbers she has, etc.. This is really simple stuff.
How many states is Clinton currently leading in? What increase has Sanders seen in his numbers in Iowa over the last month and a half?
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)compare his name recognition to Hillary Clinton is a bit of a stretch. And you say numbers are irrelevant? Not so fast there, us little people talk to other little people who don't have that much...like thousands to attend a Special Meal or a Cozy Closed Door Chat.
There is still that prickly issue of trustworthiness and clean finances...that Foundation is going to lead to some intense scrutiny, as well as other things. Bernie has gotten where he is by being "clean". He may have bailed her out of the first email scandal, but looks like there may be another on its heels. Thus, it's not for lack of, shall we say certain issues. Some the FBI are looking into.
I refuse to be irrelevant because I'm not rich or connected. You are just speaking from a viewpoint that is different. All the political savvy and funding in the world can't get Jeb Bush out of single digits.
Hillary certainly has the best start, but as I noted before the old children's book...The Tortoise and the Hare. Sometimes you have to wait until the finish line to know what's what. Lots can happen in politics can turn on a proverbial dime.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)I did no such thing.
"And you say numbers are irrelevant?"
No, I didn't.
"He may have bailed her out of the first email scandal"
I don't debate those holding out hope on Gowdy.
"I refuse to be irrelevant because I'm not rich or connected."
You aren't irrelevant.
"All the political savvy and funding in the world can't get Jeb Bush out of single digits."
True that. The guy is a piece of shit.
"you have to wait until the finish line to know what's what. Lots can happen in politics can turn on a proverbial dime."
Fully agree.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)As far as numbers, seems you felt like Bernie's high numbers were irrelevant, but I might have misunderstood because so many are like $30 contributions. In fact, I've given $30 myself...3 ACH withdrawals thus far. Surely we don't need to go into Hillary's typical donor, nor the size, nor the Foundation.
And, as I recall, it was in the debate that he said "enough about the emails". I don't know where Trey Gowdy got into the conversation.
But for the most part, I'd say we agree and appreciate the feed back.
Go (Bernie or Hillary) Democrats!
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)hat on for a Bernie win. Not Bernie has the stuff to win but Hillary has the stuff to lose.
What is going to bite you in the ass is that all that stuff you listed is like all the other Hillary scandals for the last 40 years. All bull shit and she survived every attempt to bring her down.
Your guy doesn't have half the guts, strength, stamina, experience and gravitas this woman has.
He isn't even in her league.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)I'm on record here as a Democrat...voting for whoever in our nominee. Lighten up, K?
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)I have looked at suspiciously professional charts and it appears that it's a reverse funnel in most. Outside of little Vermont, few knew who he was, let alone his record or political philosophy.
I'd say the numbers show a closer convergence than many want to believe. One is down, the other is up. Politics rely on trends, but does not account for the occasional WTF moment when something changes.
Right now the Iowa and NH numbers are more to the point. And then there is that pesky trustworthiness issue...I don't think anyone makes this stuff up.
We'll just have to wait and see.
Go (Bernie/Hillary/Martin) Democrats.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)MOST polls no matter where you look....put Clinton firmly in the lead.
Sanders folks are just deep deep deep in denial
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)the wide fluctuation of polls, most of which are questionable either way. Nor did I claim Bernie is in the lead. Actually, he may be in NH, but still a poll, you know. Iowa is closing in and as we all have learned, hopefully, that premature pronouncements are just that...premature.
If he loses Iowa and NH, even though my denial is nearly so deep as mentioned, it's likely to predict the end of the Nomination Contest. And, if that happens, I'm fine with it. I have a new sig line...check it out...
Go (Bernie, Hillary, Martin) Democrats !
/s/ A Person Not in Denial...just a good and faithful Democrat who just happens to like Bernie the best.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)that is a figment of your imagination....
read my link..
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Do you see many there that have Sanders in the lead??? No you don't....there is only one that I noticed and that is New Hampshire...
Deep deep DEEP denial
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)"figment of my imagination" behind...it does not become anyone.
You wrote the gist of my email in your last sentence. BTW, What is it about "deep" that has you fixated? There are all kinds of polls..that's why they are grouped together in little charts with lines in different colors. I think they are called composites. Because, depending on who does the pool it can vary widely (just one "widely"
Like I said, look at the bottom of all my posts from now on and then we can discuss as adults, maybe?
Go (Bernie/Hillary/Martin) Democrats !!!!
There. Not 4 deeps and one in caps.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Hillary has neither.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)From voting for regime change in Iraq, to voting for one of the most odorous deregulation bills in the last couple of decades; are you telling me he will stay consistent with those votes?
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)When many people think of regime change in Iraq they refer to the IWR. But I am sure that is not what you mean. Could you specify?
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Sanders has yet to be vetted in any way and that is admitted by his supporters. Many are just finding out about his history.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Not all that long before the IWR either. That was pretty clear.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)How did Sanders vote on it?
I'll help a little. lol.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_Liberation_Act
Facts.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)I was simply asking for clarification as to what you were referring. Is that so difficult to accept?
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)My bad.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)It seemed to be supportive of the citizens voluntarily forming a more democratic government to succeed the dictatorial regime of Hussein. I do not see it as any kind of authorization of force, as the IWR was, because of Section 8 of the bill:
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)It was followed by multiple days of bombing. What the hell constitutes force to you?
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)speak to the use of United States Armed Forces (except as provided in
section 4(a)(2)) in carrying out this Act.
Seems pretty clear to me.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Somehow, bombs don't equal force to you.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Here's Hillary lying about Saddam to push us into war:
It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons. Should he succeed in that endeavor, he could alter the political and security landscape of the Middle East, which as we know all too well, effects American security.
This is a very difficult vote, this is probably the hardest decision I've ever had to make. Any vote that might lead to war should be hard, but I cast it with conviction."
And here is Bernie warning us what would happen if Bush got his way:
Omaha Steve
(99,713 posts)When does that wheel stop spinning?
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)None of us should be so arrogant to assume we are all knowing and can't evolve. I know I have learned from past mistakes and changed.
Nice deflection.
Omaha Steve
(99,713 posts)All of those have been toward Bernie on the left.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Including calling for regime change in Iraq.
cali
(114,904 posts)it will advance her politically. She is transparently dishonest.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Then again, I don't promote right wing investigations that went no where when vetting democrats.
I have seen stranger. lol.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)He's most certainly has been vetted.
Just because he's not carrying around Hillary's giant dump truck full of scandals, flip flops, horrible warmongering votes, and track record of quid-pro-quo campaign money from Wall Street--does not mean that he hasn't been vetted.
Some candidate, like Sanders just don't have dirt.
You just can't stand it that there is no "there" there.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)The country doesn't know Sanders but he has been vetted. lol. The media doesn't give him time but he has been vetted. Get ready if he comes any closer to Clinton. That will get him vetted.
I do agree with you that he is the career politician in the race.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Sanders is just a nice, decent guy. I like that about him.
He's withstood the test of time.
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)She seems to have no principles whatsoever, and will change her position on any issue when the polls change. Her presidency will be another huge setback for working people and liberals.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...and he calls it like he sees it.
No denying that Iowans are enthusiastic about Sanders. His crowd sizes have been as much as 2,000 in early December.
Hillary's have been averaging around 300 at her biggest rallies. An appearance in West Des Moines only garnered 200 on Dec 9.
And it's about to become even more stark as the caucus season gets into forth gear in late Dec/early Jan.
BlueStateLib
(937 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Minor detail.
Sid
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...a month and 1/2 ago.
Pretty cool huh? Bernie was barely campaigning in Iowa, during this point. It was a lull for his campaign, with only a handful of events scheduled during the entire month of October.
Imagine what Harkin would say now!
Bernie's crowds are swelling, making October look pretty quiet.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)its obvious who is going to win this....HRC
George II
(67,782 posts)....and at the time of the JJ Dinner Sanders' campaign in Iowa was in full swing. In August, September and October he made six trips to Iowa, Clinton six (not including the Iowa State Fair for either).
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)disconnect and it makes me question my reality and theirs, where Bernie is sliding back into the mid 20s and Hillary is mid 70s. What the serious heck gives? I trust no poll anymore.
JI7
(89,264 posts)By lowering expectations to claim a bigger victory.
global1
(25,270 posts)riversedge
(70,301 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)And we're glad to see she didn't sit back.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)not sitting back.
So far the record of this primary are two Hillary debate wins and a constant 20 point or better lead in the polls.
That doesn't happen by sitting back.
Hillary is just warming up for the general.
Bernie is playing in the minors right now and he isn't major league material.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...he's only behind by 9, I'd say he's in an incredible position.
Sanders started out in Iowa at .8 percent. Now, he's within 9.
Have you taken a look at the attendance at her Iowa events? It's jarring.
She's barely hitting 300 at her most well-attended event in in Waterloo on December 9. In contrast, Sanders amassed 2000+ at a rally in Dubuque on Dec 12; 1,450 at a town-hall in Waterloo on Dec 12; and 1,200 at a town-hall in Mt. Vernon, Iowa on December 13.
This isn't even peak caucus season.
I'd say the Sander's trajectory is nowhere but up. His crowd sizes in Iowa, this far out, are better than Obama's and so are his number of donations. Incredible.
Major league, indeed!
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Here's what is going to happen I think.
On caucus night it will be cold and wet.
Hillary's seniors and women and folks over 45 will show up.
Bernie's 20 something's will not want to go out into the cold and will stay home and complain that they couldn't caucus on line.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...to host a campaign rally in a college gymnasium or at a high school.
Those facilities probably allow the candidates to use them for free or at very little cost.
Hillary did hold her "Fighting For Us" town hall at the Sullivan Brothers Convention Center in Waterloo. That's a private enterprise that most likely cost more than the college auditoriums and high-school gymnasiums where Bernie holds his rallies.
I doubt cost is an issue for Hillary.
It appears that she cannot fill the space. It's interesting that Bernie is.
Maybe that will change as the caucus campaigns move into peak season in January?
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)disappointment. Bill had a couple of poorly attended events and they cancelled the rest.
I still like Bill, flaws and all, but he doesn't look well. I know he has lost weight, but something is missing. He almost looks confused and it's no secret that Hillary has highly trusted people surrounding him.
I'm going to guess this is why Chelsea is coming fully into the campaign, with such a young baby ... to replace her Dad.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...should have no problem affording any costs associated with heavy campaigning.
I am convinced that her small venues are due to poor attendance. There is video of one of her Iowa events in a small venue, and there were empty seats.
Her events get 200-300 attendees; whereas Bernie is getting 1,000+. 2000 at one rally in conservative Dubuque. They actually had to pull in maintenance people to expand the space to accommodate everyone.
Bernie's Waterloo, IA event brought in 1,250. It was standing room only, and the event was held in a university town during during finals week. Hillary's Waterloo event, a few days before Bernie's only had 300 people.
It seems worse for her in Iowa than in 2008.
I am very sorry to hear that about Bill Clinton. I hope he is ok. Did he also do events in Iowa? Were they poorly attended? I know he appeared at a pre-JJ rally with Katy Perry, before Hillary took the stage.
Sorry to hear that he may not be doing well. Chelsea will be a terrific campaigner, I'm sure.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)evolved where he was the Headliner and few came and they cancelled. The Clintons are surely a resourceful family, to be sure.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)I don't remember where it was, but it was a few days ago. Seems likely it would be Iowa, however. But it does seem to begin to be a pattern.
Could also be that Hillary people have made up their minds and don't need to see her in person. In contrast, Bernie is a new national figure, so more would go? He sure has full houses and lots of enthusiastic voters. Myself, I'm voting for him and don't bother to click on speeches ... I know what he stands for and agree wholeheartedly.
I was wondering how the Iowa appearances for Bernie went...thanks for the info. Sounds like they are continuing to fill venues. Is it curiosity, or an indication of climbing in the polls.
As for Chelsea, who was an only child, leaving her 1-year old...which she'll pretty much have to do...will be so hard. I mean that's when babies start making the most incredible progress in their lives...learning to talk, to walk, to bond, to understand the gestures and emotions of the people around them, etc.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...I watched his pre-JJ dinner speech that he gave for Hillary, before Katy Perry took the stage.
I thought he did very well. He's not 40 anymore. I did notice some "hiccups" and a couple of times where he trailed off, but I think he still did very well. He does not seem as sharp as he was just a few years ago. He's the same age as Donald Trump and Bill seems a bit more weathered. I really hope he is ok.
As for Bernie's appearances, he is drawing monster crowds. The peak caucus season in Iowa will be in January--because the caucuses are Feb 1 this year. So, November was relatively quiet and December we're seeing more events.
Bernie had nine events in Iowa during the first half of December; 3 of which were "town-hall" style rallies. They were very well attended--2000 in Dubuque, 1450 in Waterloo and 1125 in Mt Vernon. Clinton's 3 rallies (during the same time frame) garnered 200, 400 and 200 attendees.
I would say lots of supporters means enthusiasm and interest. Bottom line--it all depends on who shows up at the caucuses.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)"Hillary doesn't do events like that" is quite the spin.
She's had three Iowa town halls--"Fighting For Us Town Hall"--Two were held on December 9 and one on December 4.
200, 300 and 400 attended.
Bernie held the same style of event in Iowa in December. Town Halls.
They garnered 2,000, 1450 and 1125.
The Bernie rally in Dubuque, where 2000 attended, had to be moved to a larger auditorium to accommodate all of the RSVPs.
Looking at those rallies/numbers--Just under 1,000 people went to Clinton's rallies; 4,500 for Bernie.
That's...quite illuminating.
Duval
(4,280 posts)graduated from college last May are fired up about Bernie and so are some of their friends. So, don't count on these 20 somethings staying home no matter the weather. I hope other young people will remember that it is an honor as well as a duty to vote.
Paka
(2,760 posts)I'm a woman in my 70's and it takes a lot of enthusiasm to get me out in nasty weather. Back when I was 20 something, hurricanes and tornadoes wouldn't stop me from going out. There is a youthful energy factor that fades a bit over the years.
However,even old as sin I would be out to support Bernie.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)I have never bought into the coronation talking point but it continues. Her poll numbers are good but we will work onward.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)If Hillary thought she were an "underdog",
she would be screaming at her friend (and head of the DNC)Debbie Schultz to schedule more debates to get her some face time.
The current strategy of hiding and marginalizing debates is incredibly arrogant.
Giving away hours and hours and hours of FREE Prime Time TV will come back to bite later with a Republican WIN in 2016.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)to have more debates, demanding Hillary call DWS and demand more debates, what happened? After the first two debates and Sanders did not show well I expected the demand that Hillary call DWS and demand less debates.
When the campaigns first started I said each candidate had to sell themselves to the voters, it still remains the same today. Each candidate has the opportunity to gather a good campaign team to guide the day to day operations and then get good volunteers to work in the campaign trail and do the door to door operation. Maybe to look at the campaign team to see where the downfalls are rather than criticize Hillary's campaign team. You can't change what you don't acknowledge.
Faux pas
(14,690 posts)postatomic
(1,771 posts)I'd encourage others to actually read the entire article.
There have been other Hillary supporters who have made like comments.
No one in the Hillary campaign is taking Iowa for granted. I know I'm not. Nor are the people we have organized outside of Iowa.
This statement made by a County Chair in Iowa is one shared by many Democrats in the state:
Walt Pregler, the 81-year-old Democratic chairman of Dubuque County, Iowa, is a party activist, a proud union member and makes it his job every presidential season to turn out Democratic caucusgoers within his region.
Hes just not going to be turning them out for Sen. Bernard Sanders.
Im a good union man, and hes a scab. Hes always been outside looking in, Mr. Pregler said, referring to Mr. Sanders, who has served in Congress as an independent, declining to identify as a Democrat a fact that irks Mr. Pregler, who has been working within the party apparatus for decades.
George II
(67,782 posts)....two years ago our State Representative ran UNOPPOSED yet we still campaigned for him, printed flyers and mailers, ran ads in the newspapers and had lawn signs.
It's in politicians' DNA to work hard on campaigns, no matter how "slam dunk" a campaign may be.
silverweb
(16,402 posts)[font color="purple"]Join the winning team!
Go, Bernie!
MisterP
(23,730 posts)real opponent is Trump, that this is just another Kucinich run that doesn't need to have any attention paid to it
but now Sanders rises if he's ignored AND if he's attacked: he can stay above the fray OR get in a lot of good hits; meanwhile nothing works for Clinton (i.e., whether they treat it as a primary fight, or whether they pretend there's no primary going on at all)
SandersDem
(592 posts)Based on HRC supporters posts here at DU, I suspect they will not agree with this statement. HRC supporters pease carry on with your important work hiding and flagging posts.
BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)Tote Life
(72 posts)It'll make the difference in turnout.