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KMOD

(7,906 posts)
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:27 AM Dec 2015

Who do you believe will be the Democratic Nominee?


81 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
Hillary Clinton
28 (35%)
Bernie Sanders
53 (65%)
Martin O'Malley
0 (0%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
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Who do you believe will be the Democratic Nominee? (Original Post) KMOD Dec 2015 OP
This Citizen Will Vote For Bernie Sanders Based On Policy And Position cantbeserious Dec 2015 #1
That's fine. KMOD Dec 2015 #2
This Citizen Expects Bernie To Be The Nominee cantbeserious Dec 2015 #3
cool KMOD Dec 2015 #4
And we get the final word. NCTraveler Dec 2015 #34
Well VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #5
The link says it all. n/t murielm99 Dec 2015 #6
That poll has to be wrong demosincebirth Dec 2015 #7
There is a little something at this link for everyone. NCTraveler Dec 2015 #35
The "R" in RCP stands for Republican. Dem2 Dec 2015 #41
Obligatory point for Lincoln Chaffee Scootaloo Dec 2015 #8
Undecided... 2naSalit Dec 2015 #9
I think Hillary will win every caucus and primary Yupster Dec 2015 #10
Most foolish thing I've heard all night. Fearless Dec 2015 #12
Starting to look pretty close to a clean sweep. NCTraveler Dec 2015 #36
At the moment Bernie still leads in NH comradebillyboy Dec 2015 #54
and I'd imagine he'd win his home state too Yupster Dec 2015 #64
I know who I want to be the nominee, Blue_In_AK Dec 2015 #11
Unpredictable DFW Dec 2015 #13
The poll results so far BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #14
I think you overestimate how many of the supporters of any candidate are deeply commited Kentonio Dec 2015 #15
I believe that you underestimate just how BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #17
Most people are sick of the sight of the democratic establishment Kentonio Dec 2015 #20
LOL - that loss you all keep referring to - BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #22
Why would he need you 'all' to desert en masse? Kentonio Dec 2015 #27
If it makes you feel better to believe that, BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #40
**Most** people? Really? what hole did you pull that presumption out of? Sheepshank Dec 2015 #45
You are hoping..... VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #19
Of course Kentonio Dec 2015 #21
Glad I have more than hope VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #25
That one poll is from a pollster who knows Iowa and is extremely accurate. Kentonio Dec 2015 #29
So what do the others say? VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #42
The others are talking about 20+ gaps. We're not afraid to say, we just find that ridiculous. Kentonio Dec 2015 #43
Then why keep touting this ONE poll as if it is indicative of reality? VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #47
Why would we hang our hopes on this poll? Kentonio Dec 2015 #48
Yes, that's how it looks to me as well. KMOD Dec 2015 #32
I will vote for Bernie Sanders get the red out Dec 2015 #16
Fair enough. eom BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #18
In my heart of hearts: ENOUGH IS ENOUGH IS ENOUGH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hiraeth Dec 2015 #23
That Thanksgiving group failed miserably in DC Sheepshank Dec 2015 #46
Enough is Enough is a common Bernie Sanders utterance to the rigged system. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #52
I brought it up because it was such a clear reminder of the fraudulent rally. Sheepshank Dec 2015 #57
Ah, I understand. Yes, Happy. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #58
Hillary Clinton stonecutter357 Dec 2015 #24
Though she is not my 1st choice, most indicators ... 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #26
Hillary, but hoping for Bernie or Martin (nt) bigwillq Dec 2015 #28
Trump Renew Deal Dec 2015 #30
While I don't prefer the outcome... joshcryer Dec 2015 #31
Yes, I would expect to to fight for your candidate of choice. KMOD Dec 2015 #33
There's always hope, but it would have to be a stunning reversal whatthehey Dec 2015 #37
"Never seen" Kentonio Dec 2015 #44
A very facile surface comparison only whatthehey Dec 2015 #49
Interesting results... Agschmid Dec 2015 #38
well, I'm an O'Malley supporter who sees Clinton getting it. KittyWampus Dec 2015 #39
Almost a tie at this point. TIME TO PANIC Dec 2015 #50
Hmm...lack of confidence, perhaps? brooklynite Dec 2015 #51
I'm realistic, it'll probably be Clinton Reter Dec 2015 #53
Probably Clinton. The least progressive of the three. Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2015 #55
People appear to be voting honestly in this poll, MineralMan Dec 2015 #56
I will be very proud to vote for Bernie Sanders Trajan Dec 2015 #59
I too will vote for the Dem in the general election TeddyR Dec 2015 #60
Well now that is a big difference from just a few months ago. Rex Dec 2015 #61
No, this poll isn't for who you are supporting, KMOD Dec 2015 #62
Ah then that explains it. Rex Dec 2015 #63
Predictwise has Clinton at 94% to be the Democratic nominee Gothmog Dec 2015 #65
*GASP* Tote Life Dec 2015 #66
 

KMOD

(7,906 posts)
2. That's fine.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:31 AM
Dec 2015

This poll is not about who you are voting for, but who you believe will be the eventual nominee.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
34. And we get the final word.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:35 AM
Dec 2015

Under two months from now we will start seeing who the citizens pick. Excited for Clinton!!!

Beginning to feel like people are going to ask me for my birth certificate. lol.

Dem2

(8,164 posts)
41. The "R" in RCP stands for Republican.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 12:13 PM
Dec 2015

Just read the articles. I won't give them my clicks any longer.

Huffpo for trends, http://www.pollheadlines.com/poll-category.php?category=latest-polls for latest poll releases.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
36. Starting to look pretty close to a clean sweep.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:40 AM
Dec 2015

It won't be but it will be close to one. The party and it's base are unifying around Clinton. She is building momentum at just the right time.

Yupster

(14,308 posts)
64. and I'd imagine he'd win his home state too
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 08:57 PM
Dec 2015

Saying he'd lose every one was probably brash.

I'll amend it to almost every one.

Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)
11. I know who I want to be the nominee,
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 03:47 AM
Dec 2015

but with my abysmal record of getting who I want in presidential primaries - well, elections in general - it'll probably be the other person.

DFW

(53,779 posts)
13. Unpredictable
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 04:10 AM
Dec 2015

If you follow national trends and take them as they appear today, Hillary will be the nominee. However, that's what it looked like in 2007, too, at this point. So whoever it LOOKS like now, that could change with time.

The OP asked who we BELIEVE will be the nominee, not whom we support to be the nominee, and yet, some posts on here seem to be all about preference, which is NOT what the OP asked, and on which I haven't yet decided if I even have one.

BlueMTexpat

(15,331 posts)
14. The poll results so far
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 05:27 AM
Dec 2015

indicate "Hail Mary" hopes. Yes, a "Hail Mary" occasionally works ... but likely not in 2016.

For a "Hail Mary" to happen, Dem primary voters who currently support Hillary Clinton must desert her en masse at the polls. After all, it is Dem primary voters who must be convinced for any Dem candidate to get to the GE. En masse desertion from Hillary is highly unlikely ... especially with all the nastiness shown towards Hillary and her supporters on DU and other sites by self-styled Bernie "supporters." If anything, her supporters' resolve has been strengthened by such tactics.

This is not 2008. Period.

I didn't participate in your poll.

 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
15. I think you overestimate how many of the supporters of any candidate are deeply commited
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 05:32 AM
Dec 2015

Most people aren't that interested in politics, and will never even see this 'nastiness' between the hardcore politics fans.

BlueMTexpat

(15,331 posts)
17. I believe that you underestimate just how
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 05:53 AM
Dec 2015

deeply committed Hillary's supporters are. We are overwhelmingly composed of committed lifelong Dems who vote for Dems consistently, not simply for flashes in the pan who suddenly pop up in an election cycle - however attractive they may seem - who attract some voters who quite likely will desert them the second they do not demonstrate consistent purity or when they adapt to the requirements of the "establishment."

And yes, we committed supporters are very well aware of the nastiness. I believe that you underestimate that too.

Any Dem candidate in the GE must have the full support of the Dem establishment and the kinds of voters who, according to the polls, are leaning heavily towards Hillary. Dem endorsements also are heavily in Hillary's favor. People can rail against the "establishment" all they want and there is more than a kernel of truth in such railing. But without that support, a win in the GE is impossible.

The primaries will show whether I'm right or not. But the odds right now are definitely in Hillary's favor.

 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
20. Most people are sick of the sight of the democratic establishment
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 06:17 AM
Dec 2015

As for how committed her supporters are, she's already lost one nomination battle, and this time that 'committed support' again seems to be strangely silent for the most part. The odds are in her favor on name recognition and coverage alone, but its far from over.

BlueMTexpat

(15,331 posts)
22. LOL - that loss you all keep referring to -
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 06:47 AM
Dec 2015

was to the most charismatic Democratic candidate since JFK. And I was around for JFK (and FDR and HST for that matter, even though I was still too young to vote in those days).

Hillary didn't lose by that much in 2008 and she has learned from her mistakes then. The overwhelming part of the support that she had in 2008 is still with her - that's what real dedication is - even though we also voted for President Obama in the GE and supported him staunchly in 2012. In 2016, Hillary has gained support from many in groups who supported President Obama in the primaries in 2008. She also has an excellent track record as an effective SoS since then.

Is she perfect? No. But she is my choice and that will not change unless the primary results dictate otherwise.

We may seem "strangely silent" on DU simply because the overwhelming majority of us are not trying either to smear Bernie or the Dem "establishment" that you seem to hate so much. We instead prefer to champion Hillary and the Dems down-ticket that she can bring in on her coattails. That is very important. I haven't heard it mentioned here by Bernie supporters generally.

To win in the primaries, Bernie will need all of us to desert Hillary en masse, not just a piecemeal few. Just wait and see if that happens. It's highly unlikely.

In fact, even with MO'M's current low standing in the polls, I would bet that if any en masse desertions from Hillary take place for whatever reason, committed Dems would more naturally gravitate to MO'M. He is saying the same things Bernie is, has executive experience as Governor of one of our more populous states where he was respected by his colleagues (Chair of the Dem Governors), is a lifelong Dem and a committed liberal, fully understands the importance of down-ticket races, is younger than either Bernie or Hillary, and would indeed get full-throated endorsements from lifelong Dems.

 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
27. Why would he need you 'all' to desert en masse?
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 07:56 AM
Dec 2015

He has around 35% already, and is bringing in a ton of formerly disaffected Dem voters/Indys and moderate Republicans. Technically he doesn't need ANY current Hillary supporters to swing the race considering the tiny number of people who do actually vote in primaries. Obviously in practice that's not the case, but neither is the claim that Hillary's support is all rock solid and won't bend. A lot of Hillary supporters around the country still don't even know who Senator Sanders is. The political wonks like ourselves are the tiny minority nationally.

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
45. **Most** people? Really? what hole did you pull that presumption out of?
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 01:41 PM
Dec 2015

just not seeing this from any of the national pollsters, showing a much much lesser crowd ready to vote for Bernie.

 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
21. Of course
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 06:18 AM
Dec 2015

And I'm completely open about it being a hope. The odds are still with Hillary, but 9 points in Iowa gives me real hope that she's beatable. If he wins there, the race is completely changed.

 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
29. That one poll is from a pollster who knows Iowa and is extremely accurate.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 08:03 AM
Dec 2015

She's ranked A+ by Nate Silver because she polls in a way that genuinely works in that state. Research her.

 

VanillaRhapsody

(21,115 posts)
47. Then why keep touting this ONE poll as if it is indicative of reality?
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 01:48 PM
Dec 2015

When there are several others that say more...they seem to hang all their hopes on that one single poll...why does this person from Iowa negate all the others that say otherwise?

 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
48. Why would we hang our hopes on this poll?
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 01:58 PM
Dec 2015

Because its by the most accurate and respected Iowa pollster of course. Why else?

 

KMOD

(7,906 posts)
32. Yes, that's how it looks to me as well.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:28 AM
Dec 2015

I would love for the NY Jets to win the Super Bowl. But I don't believe they will.

get the red out

(13,453 posts)
16. I will vote for Bernie Sanders
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 05:40 AM
Dec 2015

But I don't live in a state where it will matter.

I feel certain Hillary Clinton will be the nominee, and I will vote for her because I don't want people in this country to be destitute and our nation's safety net to be completely destroyed, AND Scalia clones replacing aging justices on the Supreme Court.

The Republican ideas are simply evil. Now they throw around phrases like "glow in the dark".

But I am VERY sick of having Hillary Clinton shoved down our throats! I have been pissed off about that for almost a decade, the "it's her turn" bull shit. I won't be excited to vote for her, but I will because I am so terrified of what Republicans plan.

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
46. That Thanksgiving group failed miserably in DC
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 01:44 PM
Dec 2015

and was nothing more than a fraudulent attempt at bilking Bernie supporters. They should rot in hell for the idiocy and lies they perpetrated.

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
52. Enough is Enough is a common Bernie Sanders utterance to the rigged system.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 03:14 PM
Dec 2015

The comment was not meant in any way to reference the fraudulent rally. But you wanted to bring it up. I ask you: why?

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
57. I brought it up because it was such a clear reminder of the fraudulent rally.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 04:02 PM
Dec 2015

When I called out the fraudulent acts a few weeks ago, I was called a coward by a Du'er who was trying to promote attendance. So of course the name sort of stuck in my head. Too bad really because I understand that they had bought non refundable airline tickets to the event. The rally took the name, and ran with it over several attempts. I have never associated it with a "common Bernie utterance", just the rally. Happy?

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
26. Though she is not my 1st choice, most indicators ...
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 07:51 AM
Dec 2015

Have HRC winning the Democratic nomination.

Which is a different question from who I would like to see win the Democratic nomination ... which a lot of people seem to be answering in this thread.

joshcryer

(62,260 posts)
31. While I don't prefer the outcome...
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 08:22 AM
Dec 2015

...I have to vote that Sanders is still quite the underdog and has a lot of momentum to gain to catch up. It's possible, but I am not deluded, it's a long shot. Hillary will probably win it.

But I will be sending a delegate to the convention, so it won't be me not fighting in my district.

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)
37. There's always hope, but it would have to be a stunning reversal
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 11:50 AM
Dec 2015

for which there is little momentum and next to no precedent. I'm basing this not on national polls but state polls, organizational effectiveness and primary sequence. Afer NH and IA it's a long southern/midwestern road for Sanders and I doubt the Twitterati have the machine politics worked out enough to sustain him in the face of Clinton's dominance there until more left-leaning states can give him a lift. To be sure there's always a chance that sweeping the first two states, itself a very tall order given IA data but caucuses rewardenthusiasm so it's not a done deal, might cause some kind of sudden "Well hell why not" switch among the less involved Dems who may be willing to vote in primaries, but his chances rest on either that or the surprising realization of the oft-prophesied but never seen emergence of a committed younger generation who will somehow decide to get out from behind their XBoxs and vote for a change.

Neither are all that probable I confess.

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)
49. A very facile surface comparison only
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 02:09 PM
Dec 2015

Obama had a much better organized nationwide support team, far more endorsements and much much better strength in the southern/midwest swing that comes after NH and IA.

 

Reter

(2,188 posts)
53. I'm realistic, it'll probably be Clinton
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 03:16 PM
Dec 2015

I know she lost her lead in 2008, but this isn't exactly the same.

 

Tierra_y_Libertad

(50,414 posts)
55. Probably Clinton. The least progressive of the three.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 03:26 PM
Dec 2015
Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost. John Quincy Adams

MineralMan

(146,054 posts)
56. People appear to be voting honestly in this poll,
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 03:28 PM
Dec 2015

for the most part. It makes for an interesting comparison with some of the other polls.

 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
59. I will be very proud to vote for Bernie Sanders
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 04:29 PM
Dec 2015

... Enough IS enough ....

If his candidacy fails, I will select Hillary on the General Election ballot, but only to block the GOP ... certainly not for love of her nominally conservative policy pronouncements ...

 

TeddyR

(2,493 posts)
60. I too will vote for the Dem in the general election
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 04:45 PM
Dec 2015

Glad to see that others will as well. I'd prefer O'Malley as the Dem candidate but will vote for whomever wins.

 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
61. Well now that is a big difference from just a few months ago.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 04:48 PM
Dec 2015

Back then 80% of this place was for Sanders...now it looks somewhat even. I wonder what changed?

 

KMOD

(7,906 posts)
62. No, this poll isn't for who you are supporting,
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 06:13 PM
Dec 2015

it's for who you believe will win the nomination.

 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
63. Ah then that explains it.
Thu Dec 17, 2015, 07:19 PM
Dec 2015

So many Bernie supports believe HRC will win. Interesting poll.

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