2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Endorsement Primary
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/In presidential primaries, endorsements have been among the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail. So were keeping track.
Before any votes are cast, presidential candidates compete for the support of influential members of their party, especially elected officials like U.S. representatives, senators and governors. During the period known as the invisible primary, these party elites seek to coalesce around the candidates they find most acceptable as their partys nominee. Over the past few decades, when these elites have reached a consensus on the best candidate, rank-and-file voters have usually followed.
Of course, not all endorsements are equally valuable. We use a simple weighting system: 10 points for governors, 5 points for U.S. senators and 1 point for U.S. representatives (there are roughly five times as many representatives as senators and 10 times as many representatives as governors).
In the book The Party Decides (2008), the most comprehensive study of the invisible primary, the political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel and John Zaller evaluated data on endorsements made in presidential nomination contests between 1980 and 2004 and found that early endorsements in the invisible primary are the most important cause of candidate success in the state primaries and caucuses."
Endorsements arent a foolproof predictor. In 2008 , more Democrats initially endorsed Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama (although Obama had some support). Still, a steady flow of endorsements for Obama after his early successes in states like Iowa and South Carolina helped to signal that he was an acceptable choice among party elites and presaged his success in other states.
In the 2016 election cycle, the Democratic and Republican races look very different. Hillary Clinton had a commanding lead in endorsements even before launching her campaign to an extent thats unprecedented for a non-incumbent Democrat. But Republican insiders have been slow to rally behind a candidate.
Representatives 1 point each
Senators 5 points each
Governors 10 points each
Jeb Bush............46
Marco Rubio........34
Chris Christie.......26
Mike Huckabee....25
John Kasich.........15
Rand Paul...........15
Ted Cruz.............12
Lindsey Graham.....5
Carly Fiorina..........3
Scott Walker..........2
Rick Perry..............1
Rick Santorum.......1
Hillary Clinton.....455
Bernie Sanders.......2
Martin O'Malley...... 1
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)She is Crushing Bernie in the Endorsement Primary as well.
Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)As I was posting I kept going back and looking for those Trump numbers. Then it dawned on me that he had none. Of course that may very well benefit him as the non-establishment candidate.
Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)Of course, that's a positive when applied to others.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)That ought to count for something!
Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)It'll count for some folks around here in a big way. At least the RT-posters are well paid for their work.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Truly excited to have the opportunity to build of the success of Obama. Tons of work ahead.
Old Codger
(4,205 posts)the status quo appreciates the status quo...
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)is that while congress ranks low, if you poll in-state you find that most support "their" representatives.
I have a very low opinion of congress as a whole.
But would I have my senators of Markey and Warren removed, for example?
So I can rank low but hold my own senators in high regard as well as the reps that are in my district.
So saying overall approval is low doesn't really mean much.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)To influence voters who hold congress in low esteem? To influence voters who like their reps? Or, is it just a commercial?
Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)And that gets a lot of press, a lot of PR in general, and motivates a lot of people and activitists.
Again, we're not talking congress in terms of endorsements. We're talking individuals. Combine that with shared email/fundraiser lists and it's a key part of building the machine needed for the general.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Do you think that most voters are swayed by commercials, endorsements, polls?
I'm serious. I see all these poll posts/battles as irrelevant as to how most people here will vote. And, I also think that they should be irrelevant as to how anyone votes.
Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)If you were a big supporter of local/state/national candidate X, using Markey as an example, and you see that he supports Clinton, then you'll make the connection that they likely have similar positions.
it's a positive reinforcement. but as I said, it's more than that as it opens up a lot of local area activism, mailing lists, communication and more. It's about the infrastructure building of a national campaign.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)It misses the bigger picture and the influence it all has.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)As you said, it helps raise money for the campaigns. Yet, the candidates themselves decry the corrosive effect of money in politics while seeking more of it.
comradebillyboy
(10,147 posts)convention super delegates. Hillary has more than 440 super delegate endorsements. Bernie has 2. 2250 delegate votes are needed to win the nomination. Granted super delegates can change their minds but Hillary and Bill have campaigned for many of the elected Democrats while Bernie has not supported Democratic candidates in the past. It seems that having friends is a better strategy than being the lone ranger in politics.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)great deal of anger in this election regarding the corporations and the establishment. When I see another endorsement from either of these sources it just confirms what I think of Hillary - bought and owned. The DNC and the establishment voters are just as owned as she is. Likewise all those corporate donations show the same thing.
We have watched it for over 40 years now. Both the Bernie and Trump show the kind of anger that is a real thing among the people today. I do not remember this kind of anger any time since I started to vote in 1960.
It does not make me want to vote for her. Using super-delegates to win instead of primary results will only increase the anger people feel for her. It will not help her win.
Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)There is that, yes. However it is reflected in the GOP polls against the establishment candidates, but not the Dem polls. Clinton's differential in both polling of the base and in endorsements from super delegates makes this an Everestesque climb for Sanders.
jwirr
(39,215 posts)wants you are missing a whole lot of us on the bottom.
And rather you mean it or not you are saying we do not count and that is exactly what Hillary and her super-delegates who are not elected delegates are saying. That they will override the wishes of the people.
BTW in the past most super-delegates have followed the wishes of their own primaries. They need to see how we feel about them also.
Many of these problems are why so many on the left talk about either not voting for her in the general or leaving the party and starting our own peoples party.