Nate Silver: Obama now almost at 80% win probability.

[RedSpartan]

Current prediction: 316.9 EVs, 79.8% chance of winning:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Booster]

1. Now we're talking. Great news. I still want it to be 100%.

[tclambert]

35. I don't think you get to 100% until a few days after the election.

[Booster]

39. Oh, ok then, I want 95% now. lol

[Doctor Jack]

2. Chuck Todd would call this "a toss up"

And then talk about how Obama is slipping with Southern white males between 55-57 named Steven.

[flamingdem]

3. ha ha ha the Toadster is feeling uncomfy

where'd da horsey race go?

My masters will not be pleased.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

12. Poor Chuck

Trying so hard to grow a chin.

[SunSeeker]

15. LOL

Yeah, him and Mitch McTurtle.

[jonthebru]

32. Who is this man, Chuck Todd? Should I know of him?

[fleur-de-lisa]

33. Host of 'The Daily Rundown' on MSNBC

No, you should not know of him . . . he is a pus-bucket.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

40. Yeah....

....he's the chubby goateed goof on MSNBC who's usually got a sour puss for having to hang out with a bunch of liberals.

[flamingdem]

4. Inevitability is great, but let's not get lazy

there are tricks being pulled as we speak and we need congress or it'll be the same obstructionist crap

[graham4anything]

8. reverse logic-We should shout it aloud all day long-Obama has it won

Americans like a winner and a good number of people will flock to Obama if it is inevitable, because if one thinks it close, they may think Mitt got a chance. If they know Obama will win, they won't waste their vote on a losing Mitt. Thereby getting us more coattails and the house and senate


and Mitt won't steal states, because the people that steal elections are not running this time, but waiting for 2016.

[flamingdem]

10. I agree the momentum is excellent and will help for sure with undecideds

I remember how many people got lazy in 2010, they need prodding, lots of lower ballot issues too

[tclambert]

36. That's called the bandwagon effect.

It affects campaign donations, too. At some point, the Koch brothers will say, "This Romney guy is a waste of money." Well, maybe not the Kochs. They're nuts and too rich to notice the waste of a couple hundred million.

[graham4anything]

45. at some point, even billionaires come to their senses

one day Fox won't be Fox when Murdoch retires, as his heirs and stockholders will demand real profits be made, not a vanity production

the Koch brothers are the same, eventually enough will be enough and they will focus on 2014

in the end, these a hole billionaires need a return of their investment, it is all about the money after all

Did you see electoral-vote.com today
Rmoney down to 191 and Obama is up to 347 (that means 77 above the 270 needed)

[tclambert]

50. Thanks for the link. Hadn't seen that one before.

I check out http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ and http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html and http://www.270towin.com/
from time to time. http://electoral-vote.com/ is new to me.

[graham4anything]

51. this site has been accurate both in 04 and 08

the person behind the site is I think a professor living overseas who has done this the last 2 elections (2004 and 2008), at his own expense and his combining polls has been the single most correct of any of them.

What I really like now is how just recently electoral-vote.com started a rasmussen free look, which shows bad outliers from rasmussen(which skewers and is owned by a guy who works for Fox now).

(there is a link on the left showing that.)

And I like his commentary. He normally is not active in between auctions

[RedSpartan]

52. Princeton Election Consortuim is also great:

http://election.princeton.edu/

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. wow - throughout the day this has improved significantly - even Now cast.

my guess is that tomorrow/Monday we cross the 80% line.

[tomm2thumbs]

43. you must be psychic!

[NRaleighLiberal]

47. if so, I need to find a way to make some $$$ on such talent!

[regnaD kciN]

6. Plus 76.9% in the "Now-cast"...

...which, I'd argue, is potentially the more significant number.

[RedSpartan]

7. Agree 100%. Was very glad to see that as well.

[PCIntern]

9. What is Now-cast? Thx! Nt

[Marsala]

11. That's the prediction of who would win if the election was held right now

It doesn't project into the future and account for possible changes.

Obama's Nowcast numbers would probably be even higher if we had more post-convention polling available.

[INdemo]

13. Has anyone thought that perhaps Karl Rove and the Koch Bothers

could soon be pulling money away from Romney and concentrating more on the Senate and House races?..Winning the House back is not unreasonable thinking???
If you look at the electoral map Rmoney would have to sweep 8 toss up states to win assuming that Obama does not win VA. or Florida. 80%? I think that would be pretty accurate.

[applegrove]

14. WooHoo!

[safeinOhio]

16. Mandate, landslide,

public support for liberal ideas, a swing to the left for the country, pissed off racist and homophobes.

[kalli007]

21. A girl can only dream......

[BumRushDaShow]

17. Obligatory intrade

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)

* 57.0%

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)

* 42.9%

[OneGrassRoot]

18. Does he forecast Senate and House races?

I feel confident President Obama will be re-elected, but we need people to vote for the Democratic ticket all the way.

[Kteachums]

22. I wish I could vote Democrat all the way!

I don't know about all the way. In WV we have Democrats that have sided against the President on many issues. I may just vote for him and leave the rest of the ballot blank. Our politicians are turning the state against Obama. Our political system in this state has always been ify. I know that we need Dems in office to help our President but, all Dems don't help him. Some oppose him. Remember the Blue Dogs of healthcare? It saddens me to have to say this.

[gkhouston]

48. Even a blue dog boosts the number of Dems vs. Republicans.

Don't just think of what a yahoo you've got running as a Dem in your district... remember committee chairs will go to the party with the most members. In the words of a local Dem I used to know, "He may be a butt, be he's our butt."

[thelarge]

19. One Grass is right!

Time for a sweep! Down ticket neocons will have to go in order for the economy to recover. They spend too much time and money on non-issues!

[Kteachums]

20. If everybody gets your behinds out there and vote!

Don't believe this until the day comes when we can all celebrate. My grandmother used to say; "Don't count your chickens until they hatch". We will march to victory singing "Glory, glory, alleluia"!!!!!

[Quixote1818]

24. I have been watching Intrade and Romney's chances went down after the Republican Convention

and down even more after the Democratic Convention. They have Obama with a 58.2% chance to win right now.

[Quixote1818]

25. Has Nate Silver ever been wrong? nt

[tclambert]

37. It's hard to say since he puts everything in terms of probabilities.

If he ever went to 100% vs. 0%, then you could call him wrong. Giving an outcome as 80% probable means he still predicted either outcome COULD happen. How can you tell if he got the probabilities wrong when we end up with only one outcome? You'd have to compare the outcomes in 1,000 parallel universes.

[Quixote1818]

38. I guess the only state he missed in the last election was Indiana which Obama won by 1 point nt

[tarheelsunc]

26. Not only do we need to support Obama...

but I believe the secret to this election is to publicize the Gary Johnson campaign. If he steals even 2% of votes from Romney, then we should lock up a lot of key states. No liberal would vote for him I'm sure, but a lot of the unsure conservatives may see him as a welcome change.

[truedelphi]

30. I get what you are saying, but could we please limit the

Use of the expression "steal" to the Republicans.

Third party candidates don't "Steal" votes. And the way the voting machinery is configured, the Dems won't be stealing votes either.

Better to say, that Johnson will capture votes from Romney than use the term the Republicans like to stick on Dems and others in terms of "stealing" the elections.

[RoccoR5955]

27. Polls are one thing...

We still have to get folks to the polls on Election day, to make SURE Obama wins.

[truedelphi]

31. Obama's poll numbers sugggest his beggest supporters are among the youngest

Voters - and that group is the least likely to show up on election day.

One way around this is to foster full "early voting mail in ballots" among all age groups in whatever area where you live.

[RoccoR5955]

41. they were back in '08 also

Just have to get them out to the polls.
I don't like vote by mail. There seems to be too many ways that the ballots could be filled out by someone other than the voter.

[LongTomH]

28. We still need to work hard! Register people to vote and Get Out The Vote!!!!!

I'm doing voter registration every Saturday. I plan to work my ass off to GOTV in Oct and Nov.

[Maineman]

29. Does he calculate the probablity of Repub Secretaries of State and poll workers cheating??

[cstanleytech]

34. Any links to what the upcoming elections might mean for the House though? After all if the

Republicans still control the House after the election I wouldnt put it past them to be vindictive and make a 2nd term for Obama even worse than they have done to him in his first even if it means hurting innocent people.

[tomm2thumbs]

42. Some bad news - his numbers just went down

Romney's numbers that is.... Nate is now showing 80.7 to 19.3 !!

bwhahahaha

Lead-Brick Romney!

[krawhitham]

44. 80.7%

318.8 Electoral vote

[MNBrewer]

46. I just saw that. GOOD NEWS!

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

49. And today, electoral-vote.com has it 347-191...

That's a jump from this past weekend. Lots of great data over there, too.
http://electoral-vote.com/

[EdwardKingSolomon]

53. This tends to happen when the other candidate hides all his views

This tends to happen when the other candidate hides all his views