Hillary Surging in New Hampshire Poll

[MrWendel]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/17/1461333/-Hillary-Surging-in-New-Hampshire-Poll

No polling wrap up today because nothing came out but the mostly garbagey official weekly release of the Ipsos/Reuters tracker (Hillary led 58-29 if it means anything to you) but we just got a release of the Franklin Pierce University Democratic primary numbers for New Hampshire this evening, and they’re pretty newsworthy.

Sanders maintains a very slim lead in the poll, but Hillary has closed the margin dramatically since their last poll.

Sanders 48

Clinton 46

O’Malley 2

Sanders tiny two point lead is down from a ten point lead from their October poll.

Without Biden in the race, Sanders actually did slightly BETTER in October, where he led 48-38 (He led 38-30-19 with Biden in the race). That means that in the past two months Clinton has gained 8 points in a Biden-free race while Sanders has been stagnant.

This is not a particularly great pollster, earning a C- from Fivethirtyeight, but it is another in a set of data points that shows Clinton cutting into a Sanders lead in New Hampshire, and another that shows it has developed into a very close race since Clinton’s debate wins in October and her stellar performance in front of the Benghazi kangaroo committee.

Thursday, Dec 17, 2015 · 9:51:08 PM MST · TobyRocksSoHard
For a bit more context- this is the first real movement we’ve seen in this poll since Clinton and Sanders got in the race.

In August, Sanders led 44-37, in October it was 48-38, this month it is 48-46. Much like the national race, Sanders has been stalled after an initial surge for quite a while.

[HerbChestnut]

1. She's made up ground, sure

But it kind of falls in line with every other NH poll recently.

[riversedge]

2. Hillary and her Team are on the move--in NH --Forwar---->

[SunSeeker]

3. K & R

[MADem]

4. She needs to keep working like she's 20 points behind.

I'll be surprised if HRC wins NH (owing to her position on guns and the enthusiasm of a large swathe of libertarian independent types who like to "shape" the national tickets), but all she really needs is a good showing there. If she wins it, I'll be happy but I wouldn't expect it.


Super Tuesday will be the proving ground.

[MrWendel]

5. Exactly...

best way to run any race/contest is to always think you're behind no matter what the lead.

[Cha]

6. I bet they are.. learning from experience!

[Hal Bent]

7. Clinton is still leading big in Iowa

The RealClearPolitics Average Polling has her up by 17.7%. If borne out on Feb 1, Sanders would pretty much HAVE to win New Hampshire to survive.

[bl968]

8. Lets look at the sources

Again it's always the same 2 or 3 polls that show Clinton with strong leads.

There is no dramatic margin closing, the gap would be even wider without these in my opinion bought and paid for polls.

PPP polls are directly bought and paid for by The Clinton camp.
Monmouth University clearly aimed at Pro Clinton demographics by undue reliance on land lines.
Morning Consult/Campaign for Sustainable Rx Pricing, group opposes healthcare reform believes that prescription drug prices are AOK.
Gravis Marketing (www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/05/21/the_worst_poll_in_america.html) enough said.
Fox... LOL

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus

RealClearPolitics (RealClintonPolitics) doesn't have a single headline on the front page mentioning Bernie Sanders in spite of several more than newsworthy events in the Sanders Campaign. Their poll averages show Clinton doing dramatically better than more independent poll trackers.

You are trying to put lipstick on a pig, and telling everyone it's Miss Universe.

[MrWendel]

9. Lipstick on a pig?

You mean like Bernie not making any significant gains in the polls, and people telling us that he's going to become president?

Yes, EVERYBODY is out to get Bernie. It's all one big conspiracy.

[catnhatnh]

10. Yep

You go right on believing the race up here is close. Meanwhile I've seen more support for Carly than Hillary...

[MrWendel]

11. Maybe Bernie...

should have used a few Data guys Carly knew from HP.

[kenfrequed]

12. feh

It is a C minus polling outfit according to Silver.

Also, I skimmed the thing and I was still trying to locate their methodology.

So yeah, I think I might go with a more reputable outfit on this one.

[JaneyVee]

13. K AND R!

She doesn't really need NH but I won't complain.

[lunamagica]

14. K&R. Go Hillary!

[Alfresco]

15. Bad News for Bernie

Happy Holidays!