Still Time and Space for Sanders, or Even O'Malley, to Catch Clinton in Iowa

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from FiveThirtyEight:


Did you know that there’s a Democratic presidential primary too? Sure, Hillary Clinton maintains a big lead in national polls and has all the endorsements. Sure, she’s almost certainly going to win the nomination. But if I were running the Clinton campaign, I’d still be a little nervous. Clinton’s lead in Iowa isn’t safe; Bernie Sanders could win the caucuses. And with expectations for her as high as they are, a Clinton loss in Iowa (or even an underwhelming win) would cause her campaign a lot of heartache.

Over the past month, Clinton has had a 53 percent to 37 percent advantage over Sanders in Iowa polls. A survey from polling demigod Ann Selzer found Clinton ahead of Sanders 48 percent to 39 percent. Her position is stronger than it was at this point during the 2008 cycle, when she led Barack Obama 30 percent to 24 percent. Still, past campaigns suggest that Clinton’s current lead isn’t necessarily secure.



There is clearly a relationship (just as there is between national primary results and national polls from this same period). But just six of the 12 candidates leading the Iowa polls at this point went on to win the caucuses. Those who led and then lost include Democrat Howard Dean in 2004, Republican Mitt Romney in 2008, Republican Herman Cain in 2012 and, of course, Clinton in 2008. Not only didn’t they win, none came particularly close.

Past campaigns suggest that 95 percent of the time, Clinton’s percentage of the Iowa vote will be between 32 percent and 68 percent. Meanwhile, Sanders could end up with anywhere between 17 percent and 54 percent of the vote. Heck — even Martin O’Malley (remember him?), who’s averaging a measly 4 percent over the past month, could conceivably win up to 25 percent of the vote based on the predictive error of past caucus polls.

Now, I’m not saying that Sanders will win the nomination or that O’Malley will find his way north of 5 percent. But there’s still time for a Sanders upset in Iowa. At the very least, there’s time for him to finish closer to Clinton than current surveys indicate.


read more: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-still-catch-hillary-clinton-in-iowa/

[VanillaRhapsody]

1. Indeed, anyone who has been following my writing this year knows that I think Clinton is a near-lock

for the Democratic nomination even if she loses the first two states.

So sayeth he who wrote your link....

[bigtree]

4. most of us are forgetting

...just how stretched out time is in these campaigns and how much can happen in a short time.

I saw a NYT report last month which said at least half of voters polled said it was still too early to say for sure who they'd vote for.

[VanillaRhapsody]

5. you just keep telling yourself that

while she walks away with this thing....

she is now within 2 points in New Hampshire....she is practically running the table on him....

Half the voters are undecideds? hahahahahahahahahahah!

[bigtree]

8. I will

...absolutely no need to be so rude about it.

Interesting how much you're relying on polling, yet reject the one finding that half of voters polled said it was still too early to say for sure who they'd vote for.

Overconfidence and claims your candidate has already won the race before the vote is taken used to be seen as toxic for a campaign.

[pipoman]

2. Anyone who thinks it is over are just too young to remember other

Presidential primaries or are kidding themselves.

[VanillaRhapsody]

3. She is within 2 points in New Hampshire now

and winning going away in Iowa...

[pipoman]

6. Which would be important if today were NH or IA primary day...

[VanillaRhapsody]

7. but it Sanders were within 2 in South Carolina

You would be shouting it from the rooftops! THEN it would be important right???

[pipoman]

9. You must be mistaking me for someone else

I am familiar with the primary process and have seen several front runners at this point crash and burn prior to the actual primaries. I have seen the front runner on the Monday before the vote end Tuesday in second or third place many times...

Again, anyone who thinks polling today has any bearing on the outcome in IA or NH simply hasn't paid attention to the primary process without an incumbent.

Iowa voters are notorious poll liars and many won't actually decide who they are voting for until a week before the primary...

[bigtree]

10. I keep hearing folks say

.., this one candidate isn't like the other, and that's certainly true - to some extent. Yet, there are also other precedents that hold true each election, like voter attention is usually at a minimal level before Christmas. This Democratic race is getting low viewership ratings on its debates, so it's likely that mirrors the attention and awareness of the public in general to our candidates at this point.

[Gothmog]

12. I am a Clinton supporter and I know that this race is not over

The Clinton campaign is working very hard to turn out the vote

[bigtree]

13. that's the smart thing to do

...overconfidence can threaten turnout which can be critical in a close race.

I know the Clinton campaign has a large Iowa ground organization.

[Gothmog]

14. I was tempted to go to Iowa

[ismnotwasm]

18. I agree

There's a lot of work to be done and a lot can happen.

[Gothmog]

11. Nate Silver is correct

No votes have been caste and there is time for voters to change their minds. I know that the Clinton Campaign is not taking the primary process for granted and that the campaign is working hard to turn out the vote. I was on a call for lawyers for Clinton and they are looking for people to go to Iowa and New Hampshire.

[bigtree]

15. kick

[WillyT]

16. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Gothmog]

19. If you read Nate Silver on a consistent basis, this is not anything that is new

[bigtree]

17. »

[bigwillq]

20. I hope.

I will be very happy with either Bernie or Martin as the DEM nominee.

[jwirr]

21. I don't pay much attention to national polls as they are more

likely to be incorrect. State polls are likely closer but it depends on the number of new voters that are coming in. They are usually not polled and I think that is where Bernie and Martin are going to be way ahead of the game. I know for instance that my brother is going to caucus for Bernie this year in Iowa and has never before.

Also having attended a few Iowa caucuses I know that people often come to the polls uncommitted and listen to what is being said before making up their minds. That means that even at the actual caucus we have a chance to change minds.

So the polls give us some indication but especially when looking at a caucus they do not tell us everything.