2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIn wake of the wake of controversy, Bernie plummets 17% from his high 30 minutes ago
His chance to be nominee dropped from 6% back to 5%.
Still at 2% to be president, though.
http://predictwise.com/
And that is my last smart ass post on framing stories and numbers for the day.
Probably.
Definitely maybe.
Depending.
enid602
(8,659 posts)Ah, yes. The long awaited 'surge.'
Blue_Adept
(6,402 posts)[img][/img]
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)I'd like him to be both. I think he has more chance of being both than predictwise show. But not by a huge amount. Paddypower for example, based not on pundits and research but people who make their living being better than everybody else about probability, has him at 6/1 to get the nom, meaning they think it's slightly less likely than that to get the profit margin.
When predictwise starts offering cash 20/1 odds then I will a) believe they really have the courage of their convictions and b) risk a bit just in case the 7/1 or so chance comes up.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Similar to Pollster and RCP. But they aggregate predictive markets where people really do bid real money on various events.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)comradebillyboy
(10,178 posts)Marco Rubio's stock is falling fast. These kinds of models are a fun read but I'm not sure how well they correlate to reality, but they are likely more accurate than the average beltway pundit.