Why Does Bernie Sanders POLL BETTER Than Hillary Clinton Against Donald Trump?

[Segami]

There are many reasons why Bernie Sanders poll better than Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump. Pundits may be underestimating voter intelligence. Lawrence O'Donnell presented an interesting segment that should give Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and political pundits alike pause. A new Quinnipiac poll shows that Bernie Sanders would beat Donald Trump by twice as much as Hillary Clinton would in the general election. Clinton beats Trump 47/40 while Sanders beats Trump 51/38. It's a mix bag for the other GOP candidates. O'Donnell used the similarities between Trump and Sanders to identify the reason. In effect many Trump voters that are anathema to Clinton would switch their vote to Sanders if he were the nominee. Why?

O'Donnell played clips that clearly show why. Trump claims he is self-funding on the stump. Bernie highlights that he has no super PACs. Both speak out vociferously against lobbyist and big donors. They are both against trade deals like NAFTA, CAFTA, and TPP. They both slam bankers and Wall Street. In effect, Donald Trump is usurping Bernie Sanders' populous message. Unfortunately for Trump many of his voters would migrate to the real populous candidate.

Pundits on O'Donnell's panel were a bit skeptical. One panelist said that these numbers did not mean much because Bernie Sanders' Democratic Socialist moniker was not yet challenged.It is likely that most likely voters know that Sanders has in fact labeled himself a Democratic Socialist. So far Sanders has been doing a good job of defining it in bread and butter terms Americans understand.Pundits have been undermining and misreading the populous all year. Donald Trump should have been knocked off the leader's board in the GOP race. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Marco Rubio should be on the ascent by now as everyone coalesced next to an establishment candidate.

This year could be a change election above and beyond 2008. The fallibility of the punditry in their prognostication so far may in fact be probative.


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/23/1463049/-Why-does-Bernie-Sanders-poll-better-than-Hillary-Clinton-against-Donald-Trump

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

1. Isn't it obvious?

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[zeemike]

13. That would be an unbeatable combination IMO n/t

[yeoman6987]

81. We are not going to have a ticket with a 76 year old and a 68 year old on inaugural Day.

I love both of them but he will pick someone other then the northeast and Some one no older then 55 years old. We have a ton of great democratic politicians to chose a VP with.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

88. Lookin forward to the argument over Bernie's running mate... soon enough.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[yeoman6987]

90. Absolutely.

[CorporatistNation]

94. N Other Option Could Ever "Trump" THIS COMBO!

Then, Liz would be free of any remaining "shackles" on her and the REVOLUTION would be onnnnnn FULL BORE!!!! THIS IS DA TICKET!!!!

[Jarqui]

2. He does better with Republicans and Independents

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us12222015_Uhkm63g.pdf

He gets more Republican voters (difference vs Trump is 9 pt swing better for Sanders in the above poll)
He gets more Independents (difference vs Trump is 14 pt swing better for Sanders in the above poll)

Republicans and Independents do not like Hillary as much as they like Bernie. (or they hate Hillary much more might be a better way of putting it)

We see that in poll after poll. Right now he's the better general election candidate in my opinion.

[daleanime]

15. +1

[Jarqui]

63. One other point to add that is a bit chilling

A heck of a lot of the polls I've seen seem to favor Hillary's demographics (usually, heavier distribution of older voters who favor Hillary than typical of exit polls (or even sometimes the census) with a reduction in younger voters who favor Sanders) and consequently these polls are arguably more unfavorable to Sanders. They inflate Clinton's advantage.

If Sanders is still performing better than Hillary against the GOP under those circumstances, it could get uglier for Hillary with "proper" demographics. Hopefully, a reputable, indepdendent pollster can get to the bottom of that.

Maybe that's part of the Clinton campaign strategy - get this thing over fast before folks figure things like that out. Like Obama's insurgency, Sanders is picking up on the campaign donations. If he can take Iowa and New Hampshire, it's game on.

And maybe that explains a part of what is going on in the media: if the above is true (and it sure looks that way to me) the GOP won't want to face Bernie either - they'd rather Hillary (and they would see past fuzzy poll demographics). Left and right media corporations are tied to Clintons or the GOP ...

[randys1]

79. What we should do is not do what the GOP does, rely on flawed information.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=941703


FiveThirtyEight is a valuable tool, lets use it

READ this everybody!

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls/

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

91. He does

[firebrand80]

3. Because Bernie is more of an unknown

Bernie's numbers at this point would probably be similar to "generic democrat vs. Trump."

Hillary is well known at this point, her numbers would move some, depending on who she runs against, but they won't move much.

At this point, we don't really know how Bernie's numbers would hold up to national scrutiny and GOP attack ads. Maybe his numbers improve, maybe they stay the same, maybe they get worse. We can speculate, but we don't really know, because he hasn't been through it.

That said, I think Bernie, Hillary, or any other Dem that could walk and chew gum would kill Trump. He a disaster GE candidate.

[Scuba]

12. You're correct of course. Once people know Hillary they decline to support her.

[JonLeibowitz]

36. Boom. You win this whole OP.

[raindaddy]

52. Bottom line!

And that's the reason for limiting the debates and scheduling them when the least amount of people will be watching..

Why wouldn't the DNC manage the primaries so the candidate that has the best chance of winning the general election wins?
I think most of Bernie's supporters already know the answer...

[99th_Monkey]

65. And visa- versa. The more voters know about Bernie, the MORE support he gets. nt

[thesquanderer]

48. Bernie's numbers in a general are likely to be stronger than Hillary's

In the general voting population, HRC already has 55% unfavorables, compared to Sanders' 31. (Both of them have 44% favorable.)

Even if those who don't have a firm opinion about Sanders break 3 to 1 against him, he still ends up with under 50% unfavorable (compared to HRC's 55% majority). Even if they ALL break against him (a ridiculous scenario), he still ends up with as many favorables as HRC. So he has a lot of room to broaden his support, she has almost nowhere to go. I understand, you think too many don't know enough about him to for us to be able to know how he would do, but based on those who DO know about him, there's basically no way for him to end up in a weaker position than her, even if EVERYONE who doesn't yet know much about him were to decide that they didn't like him.

[Douglas Carpenter]

4. I think he has greater cross over appeal. And many of Trumps supporters

are not necessarily hate filled aging white men. - Many people are attracted to someone who clearly represents a challenge to the status quo which leaves many people frustrated and in need. Bernie can cut into a lot of that support that is going to a demagogue like Trump.

To be fair Bernie has not been hit as strongly yet with the hostile attacks that Hillary has endured. I remember how in 1972 the Prairie Populist as he was called by Time Magazine who was correctly seen as a war hero, a decent family man and a small town Methodist minister and history teacher who always fought for the "little guy" was within a few months transformed into the candidate of Amnesty, Acid and Abortion who was also being openly denounced by some very prominent Democrats as a Communist sympathizer who was going to wipe out U.S. defenses. We must be prepared for attacks just as nasty as that from some Democrats and a lot of Republicans if Sen. Sanders' campaign really takes off in a big way. They will do that. He is to much threat to the established order of both parties. We got just a tiny hint of that this past week.

[brooklynite]

5. So Sanders supporters BELIEVE in "corporate polls" now?

Boy, this is confusing...

[randome]

6. Whiplash!

[hr][font color="blue"][center]No squirrels were harmed in the making of this post. Yet.[/center][/font][hr]

[daleanime]

20. When they confirm the things we see in our lives.....

they do tend to be more believable. I live in a red, deep red, part of a blue state and I've got republicans coming up to me and asking about Bernie. If the topic switches to Hillary I'm likely to get spat on. So yeah, that poll reflects my experience a little better then others.

[1StrongBlackMan]

78. You realize your post could be used as an exemplar of the term ...

"Confirmation Bias: ... right?

[Amimnoch]

21. Quinnipiac is useful when it's convenient

Not convenient: The actual current part of the election cycle that shows how poorly St. Sanders is doing.
Convenient: A hypothetical General election run, for which neither side has even begun campaigning for/against.

Didn't you get the memo??

[thesquanderer]

35. The same poll implies both things...

...that Sanders would probably be the stronger candidate in November

...that he is likely to lose to Clinton before he gets the opportunity

[ljm2002]

25. If Clinton supporters can flood the board...

... with polls that support their preferred candidate, then Sanders supporters can certainly post polls that support theirs.

Just because some Sanders supporters here question some polls, does not mean Sanders supporters are therefore forbidden to use polling data.

If you have a problem with the poll or its methodology, by all means, go ahead and open up that discussion.

[BeyondGeography]

7. The diarist lost me at "voter intelligence."

[reformist2]

8. One more reason: Hillary's negatives are near 50%, if not above 50%.

Sure, any Repug will try to redefine Bernie as an evil socialist with scary ideas, but it's unlikely Bernie's negatives will ever get as high as Hillary's. And besides, Bernie's "scary ideas" are going to sound very good to a lot of people...

[1StrongBlackMan]

9. Here's an (untested) possibility ...

Because Bernie keeps those Bernie supporters (in the trump/Bernie head to head) that would vote for trump, or would not vote, in the HRC/trump query.

[Segami]

11. Start your own thread...

How about that......

[pangaia]

14. HA !!!

[RoccoR5955]

18. All hail the pre-ordained queen!

We all must obey!

[JonLeibowitz]

41. What about all the NEW POLL: HILLARY CRUSHING IT posts I see?

They seem to be focused on a single poll.

Oh, and welcome to DU.

[bvf]

51. Eleven posts and already giving orders.

Guess what?

[yardwork]

16. The fact that people who like Trump also like Sanders is not a good thing.

[Segami]

19. Even 'good and evil' runs parallel to each other...

Do you know which candidate symbolizes evil between the two?

[ljm2002]

26. Well it would be a great thing in the general...

...if the match-up is between Sanders and Trump.

[yardwork]

40. The voters would break for Trump when the Republicans run ads

If it were Trump vs Sanders, imagine the ads the PACs would run against Sanders.

[JonLeibowitz]

42. Yes, we must settle for Republican-lite neocon politics because we're afraid of the Republicans

[yardwork]

46. We have to elect a candidate before they can do anything.

Presidents don't make policy, anyway. Only Congress can pass laws.

Our only hope to avoid another war and economic disaster is to elect a Democrat in the White House. We know we're stuck with a Republican Congress until the next census in 2020 or longer.

[JonLeibowitz]

49. Yes, our only hope to avoid decades of regime change is electing Sanders over Clinton. n/t

[ljm2002]

47. Can we assume the Democrats will run ads against Trump?

If not, why not?

Personally I think that Trump will come off worse in any such battle.

Anyway your argument applies to Clinton too.

Imagine the ads the PACs would run against Clinton.

See how that works?

What we do know, however, is that one of the two candidates beats Trump by twice as much, percentage-wise, as the other. That candidate is Bernie Sanders. Therefore one can only assume that he is the one with the advantage in this match-up -- for now. It could certainly change, but this is the data we have right now.

[yardwork]

50. The Democrats suck at running negative ads.

The Clintons are tough as nails and will do pretty well, but in general, the Republicans do better at blatant lies.

[ljm2002]

58. Yes the Republicans do better at blatant lies...

...and Bernie is better at countering them IMO.

[Ed Suspicious]

59. If it's Bernie, there won't be "negative ads." It's not what he does. It is because of Bernie's

approach that he will wipe the floor with trumps quivering hair-carcass.

[A Simple Game]

84. The voters would break for sane against insane, I leave it to you to figure out which is which. n/t

[JonLeibowitz]

43. Not for your candidate it sure isn't.

However, as far as crossover support in the general it will work out just fine for Senator Sanders.

[treestar]

68. Yeah what happened to all those ideals?

It stuns me that there is bragging that Bernie will attract Republicans and Independents. If he is so purely progressive, he would not.

[RoccoR5955]

17. Forget Bernie.

You must obey, and vote for Clinton, as she is the first pre-ordained queen of the US.
Clinton shall win, because we must obey.
Businesses want Clinton, because she owes them, and they shall get them, because 1%ers who own you and her will fire you if you vote for Bernie.
Besides, Bernie does awful in "scientific" polls, don't you know?

[Divernan]

32. You got that backwards. HRC does not own businesses; they own her.

They've "loaned' her millions over the years with reasonable, business-like expectations that they can call in those loans if she makes it to the Oval Office. Right of refusal on prospective Supreme Court nominations being Job One! Got to keep Citizens United the law of the land.

HRC's campaign slogan: "If you've got the quid, honey, I've got the pro quo."

[baldguy]

22. Because some Bernie supporters prefer Trump to Clinton.

Think about that for a while.

[MrMickeysMom]

24. Where'd you pull that statistic from?

[Segami]

28. I would answer that...

but I might risk a hide.....

[Divernan]

33. My vote goes to nether regions.

[AlbertCat]

61. Because some Bernie supporters prefer Trump to Clinton.

I did think about it for about .04 seconds and then laughed my ass off.

[Segami]

62. .04 seconds?.....why so long?

[AlbertCat]

66. why so long?

I was wrapping presents and cooking breakfast at the same time.

[ViseGrip]

23. It's clear Hillary has a numbers problem getting elected. Bernie has never sold out. Trump should

fear him the most.

[redstateblues]

29. Trump fears Hillary

That's why he attacks her. Look at his past attacks-He only attacks those who threaten him. Has he mentioned Bernie yet?

[Divernan]

37. Attacking her bolsters his GOP support and fund-raising.

The Hillary Hate runs wide and deep in the GOP.

[Segami]

39. +1000

He knows which buttons to push to excite HIS base support.

Mentioning Hillary's name is like ringing the chow bell for dinner......

[Divernan]

45. It's like chumming for sharks.

And if she heads the ticket in the general election, all those sharks will be voting straight republican tickets, and the Democrats down thread will go down to defeat with the Clinton wanna-be dynasty.

[Segami]

53. Hard-core republican vs republican lite.

Who would the republicans vote for?

[redstateblues]

27. The only corporate polls that count

are the ones that favor Bernie. The others are rigged by the Oligarchs. Common knowledge

[Segami]

31. Thank you!! Now you're beginning to understand.

Glad to have you on board........

ps- Do I really need to post the 'sarcastic' thingy?......

[MrMickeysMom]

30. Because thinking is good and not everyone has a nose ring and can be led around...

... The operative word is "thinking".

The argument for Democratic Socialism is one that Trump can only attempt to blow farts on (since he's that crude in his attempt to gain popularity).

The real MESSAGE of what the Democratic Party had begun to visualize, under JFK for evolution and what FDR would have continued to do with the second Bill of Rights, had he also lived long enough, WILL BE DELIVERED.

The only people who are scared to death of THIS MESSAGE are the 1% who are far removed from the 99%.

Next?

[DUbeornot2be]

34. Easy answer...

... because Bernie is a uniter, not a divider!

He's the only one who is trying to put America/Americans back together again. All the repugs use the same divisive tactics as the hrc folks. It's very telling.

Each and every one of them want us to fight among ourselves while they divide up the spoils... except Bernie.

It's that simple. He really is fighting for 90% of us. How can they rob us blind if we're working together? Bernie's tent welcomes all Americans to work together again.

That is how we become great again... not by watching four to eight years of the made for tv by tv surefire ratings magnet of Hillary vs. the gop bad boys.

[jalan48]

38. Because he's "real".

Something Hillary will never have, focus groups and pollsters just can't make that part of it happen for her.

[Scootaloo]

44. I think it's obvious.

The better question is, why are Clinton "supporters" CONSTANTLY promoting Trump over Sanders, as if it helps their candidate?

[Persondem]

54. Sure, if you want cherry pick just 1 poll, but on aggregate Clinton does much better v. Trump

Per RCP Clinton is up 6 on Trump while Sanders is only up 2 and that's with the help of the most recent Quinnipiac poll (outlier?). Clinton's average lead on Trump is outside the usual MoE for these polls while Sanders is not.

This pro-Sanders narrative is busted.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

[jtuck004]

55. Because he offers an alternative.n/t

[oberliner]

56. The Republican attack machine has been focused on Hillary Clinton for decades now

I think that is the main reason for these numbers.

[mgmaggiemg]

57. look there are "bernie people" and bernie people

the "bernie people" are rooting for bernie even tho they are going to vote republican....the bernie people may vote for bernie in the primaries out of regional loyalty but will vote for HRC in the general....hey I like Bernie however he is a regional candidate on certain issues that are important to myself and a large coalition of voters....so as a national candidate he falls short....but he's a great guy...wish his supporters were as great as he is....Cheers, Maggie

[AlbertCat]

64. hey I like Bernie however he is a regional candidate on certain issues

Well, at least he not a war hawk and a trickle down candidate. On those issues he's not "regional". Must be why he draws huge crowds wherever he goes.... even without 20+ years of media coverage.

[mgmaggiemg]

67. Albert....

If I lived in vermont..I would vote for the guy as senator....that fact that his campaign people have put blinders on and decided not to listen to the things that are important to the diversity of people across this nation is what has done his campaign in ...he's an excellent senator...he should be very proud....but he's not the national candidate that I and many voters would hope for....Cheers, Maggie

[senz]

74. "Bernie people" are the only true progressives in the race.

You can minimize that all you want, but it's not going away.

So carry on ...

[mgmaggiemg]

76. I don't want Bernie to go away

if the campaign wants to be a national campaign it would have to grow up and realize that the diversity of voters across the nation arrange their priorities in different ways...they should stop whining and throwing two year old temper tantrums....and listen to all voters; there is nothing that turns people off more than a bunch of syncophants (sp) telling voters what to think...and what they should have....huge turn off

[senz]

80. I cannot find even one bit of truth in what you write.

It's falsehood piled on falsehood piled on falsehood. You comments sound like an Orwellian invention.

[senz]

69. Bernie: authentically good. Trump: authentically bad. Hillary: inauthentic.

[Nonhlanhla]

70. To me the answer seems obvious

There are certainly some Bernie supporters who are simply anti-establishment. They currently prefer Bernie's brand of anti-establishmentness, but if Hillary becomes the nominee, they will switch to Trump's brand.

[senz]

73. Bernie supporters care about the American people first and foremost

as does Bernie; that's how he resonates so beautifully with people. He promotes a fair and level playing field for all Americans. An honest chance for a decent life.

Trump doesn't care what happens to people but he knows how to play to their bigotries and fears.

It's the difference between liberal/progressive populism and rightwing populism.

Hillary doesn't care about people; she cares about the very wealthy, very powerful who can enhance her own power, wealth and prestige. But briefly while running for office, she will espouse Berni-like (and Bernie-lite) populist views.

[Nonhlanhla]

83. I don't see

how your post is a response to the point I made.

I specifically said that SOME Bernie supporters are anti-establishment to the extent that they'd rather switch to Trump than vote for Hillary. That's what it looks like from that polling anyway. It does not make sense if you look just at the difference between leftwing and rightwing populaism. But it does make sense if you realize that some people don't look at the world with that lens: they simply operate with establishment/anti-establishment, so they'd easily make the switch to Trump.

With regards to Bernie I know that he cares about people. I like him a lot. I like a lot of his supporters though. But I don't like his campaign people much, I don't think he'd make an effective president, and I don't like SOME of his supporters.

With regards to Hillary, I find it strange that you are so certain that you know what she cares about. I see a far more complex picture of her.

[senz]

86. I think your response misread the situation.

So I addressed that.

However, I do not know of any Bernie supporter who would vote for Trump. Not one.

With Hillary, just follow the money. Her behavior is driven by greed and ambition. She has long appeared to have no convictions, no principles.

[Nonhlanhla]

93. I actually know one

One of my students, a young white male, told me he supports Bernie, but if Hillary takes the nom, he's gonna vote for Trump in the general, "because he's an outsider like Bernie." I suspect there might be a sizeable group like that - not nearly the majority of Bernie supporters, of course. I'm not trying to attack Bernie supporters, and you may have noted that, unlike you, I did not attack your candidate either. My point was a simple one: Bernie supporters come in all shapes and sizes, and I suspect that a portion of them are really not ideologues, but simply people who feel angry at the establishment and therefore could conceivably switch to Trump if Bernie is not the nominee.

[Dawson Leery]

87. +1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Doesn't say much for his support.

[Uncle Joe]

71. Trump is afraid of Bernie, not so much of Hillary.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251935051

One thing is for sure, Trump is afraid of Bernie, not so much of Hillary.

Thanks for the thread, Segami.

[Segami]

72. +1 Hammer meets nail head.

[senz]

75. I think that's true.

A few weeks ago, someone I respect very highly advanced the theory that Trump entered the race to knock out Hillary's competition. Trump and Hillary go back a ways.

[grasswire]

82. many people think that

some think it was Bill's idea

[senz]

85. It's really interesting what Trump has done.

He has already knocked Scott Walker and Jeb Bush out of the race. His focus on Hillary elevates her already high profile, but I haven't noticed him delivering any serious criticism of her.

And yes, I could see Bill hatching the idea.

[Juicy_Bellows]

92. It's a theory that may hold water.

Trump made claim that he will not go the Independent spoiler route - so that takes a little steam out of the theory. However, you'd have to take Trump at his word and that comes with it's own set of hurdles.

[Persondem]

77. This OP is cherry picked BS see post # 54. nt

[Wilms]

89. ^