2016 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 46%, Sanders 43% (ARG)

[Dem2]

1) 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary
Asked of 600 likely voters - democrat
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Martin O'Malley (D) 3%
Bernie Sanders (D) 43%
Other 0%
Undecided 7%


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23409

[leftofcool]

1. Go Team Hillary!

[rhett o rick]

14. If you want to see something done about the 16 million American children living in poverty

don't vote for the Goldman-Sachs supported Oligarchy. The Oligarchy doesn't love you.

[Cha]

19. the bernie team sabotaged their own campaign when they downloaded Hillary's data.

[rhett o rick]

22. In perspective that's nothing compared to the 16 million children living in poverty and another

16 million living in low income homes. Supporting the billionaire's candidate will not change that. They are all about profits and that means more poverty. The only reasons I can imagine for supporting the Oligarchy is 1. the worship of the wealthy or 2. total denial that there are children going to bed hungry.

[Cha]

23. Hoisted on their own petard.. what a shame.

[rhett o rick]

24. Gloat while you can, but sooner or later the People will over through the Oligarchy

that you think is your protector.

[Cha]

26. You're gloating.

[rhett o rick]

30. We want to help those living in poverty, those seniors depending on Social Security and Medicare,

the vets from wars that your candidate supported, college students that have become victims of the 1% loan sharks. We support those that will lose their jobs because of the job killing "Free Trade" agreements that your candidate supports. We support those living where fracking is destroying their water supply that your candidate supports. We support efforts to turn back the Patriot Act and end domestic spying while you seem to accept them. We want to see the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes while your candidate wants to have the 99% pay for everything.

This is a class war and your friend, Goldman-Sachs doesn't care about poverty they want bigger profits. I assume you support that.

[CorporatistNation]

34. Well, If You Are So Firm In Your Position Then I Imagine That You Are for A Full And COMPLETE

INVESTIGATION STARTING FROM DAY ONE ? Look'in Forward to it!

[Cha]

42. It's not a matter of my "position" .. those are the facts.

[firebrand80]

2. I recall ARG not being a good pollster

I could be wrong about that

[Godhumor]

4. No, they're terrible

They blew 2008 by a significant margin.

[Hoyt]

5. So Clinton COULD BE ahead by 10 percentage points or more.

[Godhumor]

10. Well sure, but ARG missed in 2008 by vastly overstating HRC support though

And I'm saying this as a Clinton supporter. ARG should be taken with a massive grain of salt.

[leftofcool]

8. I believe you are correct.

Which means she could be ahead by a bunch.

[firebrand80]

12. I don't think that's likely

Given the other recent numbers

[Cha]

20. We'll see won't we?

[madokie]

37. It also could mean

she's way, way behind.

My bet is on the latter

[Samantha]

45. American Research Group has a C- rating from Nate Silver

That might tell you something.

Sam

[NCTraveler]

3. Clinton is not resting in any way.

#hillyes

[libdem4life]

6. We may not totally agree on politics, but that's a cool hashtag.

[NCTraveler]

7. #feelthebern

Hard to beat that one. And a little secret, I love Sanders and his political views. Shhhh.

[libdem4life]

11. Lips sealed. LOL

[peacebird]

28. #hillNO #anybodybuthillary

[NCTraveler]

29. Happy Holidays.

Wishing you and yours the best.

[peacebird]

31. Our holiday has already passed, but thanks!

[msrizzo]

9. I sure hope they are right.

I still think Bernie probably leads, but she may well be cutting into his lead so Go Hillary!

[Cha]

21. Hillary keeps workin' it like she's 20 points behind!

[CorporatistNation]

35. Yep, Prevaricating Her Ars Off!

[Cha]

43. So says a BS fan.. that means less than nothing.

[Codeine]

13. Clinton will almost certainly lose NH.

ARG is not a reliable pollster, so while I would love to believe this I'm going to call it an outlier and move on.

[Dawson Leery]

15. NH is one of the few states that Bernie can win.

Not a big deal if she loses it.
She will win the other 45.

[RoccoR5955]

17. Hubris! n/t

[JonLeibowitz]

33. How many states does the US have again?

[Dawson Leery]

44. Bernie should win VT, NH, ME, WI, UT.

5 for Bernie, 45 for Hillary.

[JonLeibowitz]

46. Oh I see.

Still, improvement. When he started they said he wouldn't get any traction and then they said only NH and then only NH and Iowa. What next?

[Jarqui]

16. Another poll that seems to have favorable demographics for Clinton

by age ...

[litlbilly]

18. If you ask 600 Hillary supporters then those numbers might be correct

[seabeyond]

25. Personally, I do think Clinton will do a sweep. But. NH and a couple little ones like Utah my go

Sanders. I concede.

Clinton is kicking major ass.

[madokie]

38. I agree there is some ass kicking going on

but I don't think HRC is doing the kicking, sorry

[seabeyond]

39. Facts vs Hope. I can live with that. Nt.

[peacebird]

27. Awesome! Go Bernie! FeelTheBern!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

32. +/- 4%

Other polls say that Berns is leading. I really don't think polls are indicative of what is going to happen.

[CorporatistNation]

36. By Definition, The Sampling CANNOT Be Random

Because there have been MAJOR Structural Changes in Personal Communication Especially among the younger cohort of voters and potential voters. Not even sought out are those that WILL Vote that previously have not. The polls are for in place to "set" expectations be they relevant to actual results or NOT.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

40. yes

[rjsquirrel]

41. What's with the random caps?

Every Word Matters?

[Fawke Em]

47. Such Bull Shit.

[DCBob]

48. NH is a difficult state to poll acurately.

The independent voters which are large percent have the option to vote in either gop or dem primary. So even if they say they are voting dem now they might swtch if the gop contest seems more interesting and consequential. This could hurt Bernie as he is counting on those independents to offset Hillary's lead with actual NH Democrats.

[Dem2]

49. Yes, it is

One can only hope that an average of polls, perhaps weighted based on historical accuracy as 538 does, is somewhat close to reality.