2016 Postmortem

Blue Yorker

(436 posts) Mon Sep 17, 2012, 03:51 PM Sep 2012

There's a tracking poll that few have paid attention to

I don't want to praise it or criticize it since I had never heard of it until recently.

It's the Rand american life panel. This poll uses the same exact people in their sample (a panel). I find that strange since it sounds like it isn't a random sample and therefore it sounds like BS, but Nate Silver (who spent years studying this) has said Rand "is therefore subject to less statistical noise than other surveys." http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/15/sept-15-waiting-on-wisconsin/#more-34585

Here's the link to the tracking poll, updated every day. https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

Obama has a 3% lead there as we speak.

4 replies

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There's a tracking poll that few have paid attention to (Original Post) Blue Yorker Sep 2012 OP

Monmouth University/Survey USA poll today shows plus 3 Obama as well. Jennicut Sep 2012 #1

the important poll is the electoral college not the popular vote anyhow graham4anything Sep 2012 #2

Any happy polls today? Or is it your sad poll du jour? n/t progressivebydesign Sep 2012 #3

Uh oh, here's the Rasmussen defender again Blue Yorker Sep 2012 #4

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

1. Monmouth University/Survey USA poll today shows plus 3 Obama as well.

Reply to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Mon Sep 17, 2012, 04:24 PM

Sep 2012

That seems to be his consensus lead. http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/31a5695e-db0d-4272-b292-b9640f4ff7fb.pdf

graham4anything

(11,464 posts)

2. the important poll is the electoral college not the popular vote anyhow

Reply to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:04 PM

Sep 2012

3% win in popular vote can mean 350 to 450 electoral votes

and in state after state that matter for the 270 needed, Obama is now near or over 50%
(and to state the obvious-
if Obama has 50.001 %, and there are some undecideds, than ALL the undecideds can vote for Mitt, and Obama will still win that state.

a landslide Obama victory is coming

As Nancy Pelosi said, when asked about if she could work with Mitt if he won said, straight to the camera without missing a beat, Mitt Romney is NOT going to be president.

progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)

3. Any happy polls today? Or is it your sad poll du jour? n/t

Reply to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:14 PM

Sep 2012

Blue Yorker

(436 posts)

4. Uh oh, here's the Rasmussen defender again

Reply to progressivebydesign (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:33 PM

Sep 2012

Progressivebydesign pops up every time someone compares Rasmussen badly to other pollsters.

Hmmmm....I wonder why.

He also jumped to defend a pro-Republican pollster in Michigan whom I criticized. http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=95878

Disclaimer: I have nothing against conservatives like you. I believe we should be a big tent. Not all of us have the same ideology.

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