Today's good polling in Iowa - Sanders 45%, Clinton 48%, O'Malley 5%

[Attorney in Texas]

Today's NBC poll is a live cell/landline poll of likely voters.

The overall numbers are good (showing Sanders within 3%) and the trend from the last NBC poll in Iowa is also good:



NBC has not been very active in Iowa so it may be useful to add in the Iowa polling by Quinnipiac (which also uses live cell/landline poll of likely voters and has done the most live phone polling in Iowa) and the Iowa polling by the Des Moines Register (which also uses live cell/landline poll of likely voters and has the best record for accuracy):



The trend still looks very good.

This is really a nice follow up to yesterday's massive polling result in New Hampshire - Sanders 50%, Clinton 37%, O'Malley 3%

A poll is not a vote so we need to keep on working, but this is a good report card for the campaign which tells us we are on the right track.

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!

[brooklynite]

1. So- Clinton leading Sanders by three in IA means "good for Sanders..."

...while Sanders leading Clinton by 4 in NH means "good for Sanders".

This politics stuff is confusing.

[Fawke Em]

2. Yes - it means the race is tightening and

Sanders has the enthusiasm.

Those "scientific" polls have trouble showing that.

[Attorney in Texas]

3. Today Clinton leads by 3%, a month ago she led by 14%, 2 months ago she led by 24%. HELL YEAH THAT'S

GOOD FOR SANDERS!

Plus, you don't have to be a psychic to identify a trend here or project where that trend line might lead on caucus day if we keep up the hard work!

In case you are trend-blind, here's a road map:



There is hard work ahead to make this possibility a reality, but this looks promising.

[OilemFirchen]

5. One poll does not a trend make.

Of equal import: polling trends are usually not linear.

Whatevs. Last six months:



As of today, Clinton leads Sanders by roughly 11%.

[Attorney in Texas]

11. That's why I added in the Quinnipiac and Des Moines Register polling.

[OilemFirchen]

12. I see. Three cherry-picked polls makes a trend.

Fine.

Gravis, Monmouth, PPP:



Clinton killin' it at 17 points!

[JoePhilly]

4. Pssst ...

... "enthusiasm" is code for "behind in the polls".

[OilemFirchen]

6. Yup.

I also love listing the candidates in "favorite flavor" order. How embarassing is that?

[JoePhilly]

7. I noticed that too. Bwahahahahahaha!!!!!

Its one of the lamest statistical "slight of hand" techniques ever developed.

[JoePhilly]

9. Shouldn't you be off looking for new meaningless metrics?

[OilemFirchen]

10. There are three weeks to go, yes?

Since you're fond of predictions based on linear trends, let's try this:

Here's the one-month poll of polls:



The spread has narrowed by about three points. Go ahead. Do your magic!