What If Bernie Sanders Is the Democrats' Best Bet - TheAtlantic

[WillyT]

What If Bernie Sanders Is the Democrats' Best Bet?
The Vermont senator now argues that he’s more electable against a Republican than his leading rival.
David A. Graham - TheAtlantic
Jan 11, 2016



<snip>


If you’d told most Americans a year ago that Bernie Sanders would be a serious threat to Hillary Clinton in January 2016, they probably would have laughed. (Or asked who Sanders was.) If you’d told them that Sanders would be arguing that he was a better candidate than Clinton because he was more electable, the reaction would have been even more incredulous. She was cautious, sure, and a bit more conservative than some Democrats, but surely she was more palatable to voters than an acerbic democratic socialist from Vermont.

That is, however, exactly the state of the Democratic race on January 11. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released over the weekend tells the story. In Iowa, Clinton leads Sanders among likely voters by just three points. In New Hampshire, where he has mostly kept a small lead for months, he’s up four. The Sanders campaign blasted out the results to reporters Sunday under the subject line “Electability Matters.” Speaking on This Week, Sanders said: “If people are concerned about electability—and Democrats should be very concerned because we certainly don’t want to see some right-wing extremist in the White House—Bernie Sanders is the candidate.”

That’s a remarkable turnaround for a senator who seemed reluctant to run in the first place. Some people viewed Sanders as a candidate out to make a point, not to win an election; even those who hoped he would win believed it was Sanders’ sincere, morally clear-eyed stance on inequality and other issues that would win him the race—not that voters would wager he was their best shot at the White House. But it turns out that hectoring tone, disheveled hair, and all, Sanders may be—as Barack Obama memorably said of Clinton in 2008—likable enough.

Clinton, meanwhile, is pulling out various stops. In particular, she has spent the last few days assailing Sanders for being, in her view, soft on gun control. She is rolling out an endorsement from Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx in Iowa, and a group of female senators are stumping for her there—as is Lena Dunham. Chelsea Clinton in hitting the road in New Hampshire.

These are the moves of a candidate who looks, if not necessarily worried, at least a little anxious. And for good reason. Clinton still holds a commanding lead in national polling of the Democratic electorate—all but one outlying poll show her with a strong double-digit lead. But the primary isn’t a national one, and that’s her problem. First, there’s Iowa. The NBC poll is closer than other recent surveys—perhaps in part because it draws on likely voters—but the polling tightened since four weeks ago, when Clinton’s comfortable lead stood at nearly 20 points. Clinton famously lost the state’s caucuses to Obama in 2008, the first step in his remarkably toppling of a frontrunner. Sanders argues that he can win the caucuses just as Obama did, by bringing in fresh voters...

<snip>

More: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/wildfire-berning/423552/

[Xipe Totec]

1. Hillary's risk avoidance strategy has dug her into a very deep hole.

Debbie was just the shovel.

[thereismore]

2. Oh wow, today feels like some floodgates have been opened! It is not too late! nt

[EdwardBernays]

4. The timing is perfect

Because really, Bernie's core supporters know Hillary is not really tough on guns and they've made peace with Bernie's own stance.

And the same pretty much goes for the rest of their differences.

People are voting for what they're hearing him say. They're paying attention. Finally. And it's way too late for her to start manufacturing new policies - like her silly tax announcement - to try and win people back.

[Ed Suspicious]

8. I love your Username. I'm taking a Public Relations class and it was one of the first names we were

introduced to.

[EdwardBernays]

10. thanks ;)

It's a name EVERY American should know, but very few do!

[Maedhros]

22. "Don't be saucy with ME, Bernays!"

http://ippks02-vip:3128/5:3600:3600:55535c64786861757468405553@000000005695762c/6053fbc67eb8fc1dee6033b28260de76ebeb8e8a4f886790a34d0f668c3b5728/1450128333/

[EdwardBernays]

43. It's good...

...to be the king

[in_cog_ni_to]

9. No kidding and "unveiling" that tax plan in Iowa was just bizarre. A 4% tax on people who make over

$5 MILLION? Mmmmmkay...

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[EdwardBernays]

11. Totally desperate

and completely transparent.

[Ed Suspicious]

18. Totally desperate to do nothing while appearing to do anything at all.

[questionseverything]

21. taxing the peops that make over 5 mill ayear an extra 4%

would be a good starting place

i agree hc is pandering but seems to me this is a good chance to turn that idea into a democratic goal

i would also like to see some kind of tax on corporations that play no income tax if they do business here

[EdwardBernays]

33. have you seen Bernies tax proposals?

They go much farther... in a good way!

[questionseverything]

41. huge bernie supporter here

i support all of his proposals so far except the pay mechanism for the family leave act

i feel the working class can not handle even that small raise until we get the 1% paying more

i am betting bernie would not disagree with an "extra tax" on folks making over 5 million a year, now that we have hc spouting same ideas i feel it is an opportunity to get the establishment dems behind it (wether they actually mean it or not)

[Ed Suspicious]

3. Why do these late adopters feel everyone was so convinced that Bernie had no chance. I was for

Elizabeth early, but it took days for me to figure out that if Bernie were serious about his run, he would put up one hell of a fight.

[Fawke Em]

5. Because "conventional wisdom" or something.

The establishment media may finally have to learn they no longer control the narrative: social media does.

[libdem4life]

12. It's been an evolution. First radio lost to print, print lost to tv, then tv had to move to cable,

then along comes internet news...get it 24/7...and then Facebook and Twitter/Social Media.

It's a sea change of national proportions now, and Bernie will be the first to have profited by it. Hopefully enough to propel him to the White House. No doubt, the MSM has been dinged in their own world...the public.

[Matariki]

16. Maybe, but I'm not even sure *he* thought he had a chance at the outset

I thought he decided to throw in to insure progressive issues were at least discussed. I think the enormous ground swell of support kind of took him by surprise. And then he got serious about winning. And dear gods I really want this man to win the presidency. He's exactly who this country needs now.

[WillyT]

39. It's My Belief That Bernie Sanders Got In... Because Elizabeth Warren Did Not

And I was all about supporting Senator Warren for President, yet she chose not to.

Enter Bernie Sanders...

He said he wanted to see if he had any support, he wanted to talk to various people and listen to their concerns, desires, et. al...

He wanted... IOW... to see if he could take his message to the people without looking like he was...

What... fringe, gadfly, grumpy old man, a joke ???

I guess we have our answer now.

Thank you Senator Sanders, for having the courage to take on the system.

You have my un-ending admiration.

WillyT

[Pharaoh]

24. I still very much believe

Elizabeth will be the VP pick.

[jonno99]

30. Possibly. However, given that they are both from the NE, Sanders might find it

politically expedient to pick a running mate that would help "lock up" the vote in another part of the country (Ohio, FL, etc.)

But then again, Bernie is not your typical politician...

[Pharaoh]

31. no he's not

and I would be disappointed if his pick was based on standard politics and not his own beliefs and morals......

[jonno99]

32. Agreed.

[Pharaoh]

36. ............

[musiclawyer]

38. Yeah

Been saying for a while now to anyone who will listen. Conventional wisdom is SO 1990 and cable tv talking heads. They are both from the northeast. So what! They are a monster when out together. Their coat tails will be long and her taking VP only "increases" chances of taking more Senate seats. 2018 we take back the House with Bernie and Liz Warren online and on tv everyday everywhere.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

57. Because magazines like the center-right Atlantic think they're the vanguards of public opinion.

They're still completely clueless about social media doing a MUCH better job than they ever did, which results in online communities coming to consensus about this issue or that. We don't need them, but they haven't yet realized this.

[in_cog_ni_to]

6. Bernie is the best bet against Relubs!

He'll wipe the floor with them!

Peace
Love
Bernie

[CharlotteVale]

7. K&R

[blondie58]

13. Bernie has

The millenials! They love him.

[Ferd Berfel]

14. THe PArty had Harold Ford, Jr. answer that on Morning Joe the other day

Ford suggested that if Hillary falls flat in Iowa and NH that the party might try to get Biden or Kerry to run RATHER THAN SUPPORT BERNIE.

[TheFarS1de]

15. I saw that

they really want to pick up their ball and go home rather than play with Sanders . I have never seen someone so sad about a candidate getting so much voter support . You can taste the status quo desperation .

[Ferd Berfel]

20. And that also speaks to the question that keeps getting asked here

by the "Hillary is inevitable" people. They keep asking will Bernie people support Hillary if she wins?

It's now obvious that the DLC DNC Third Way Democratic elite is gearing up for "anybody but Bernie, Even if we have to Lose"

IF they try that, it will deflate the momentum and we will lose.


WE need another FDR. We Do not need another Corporatist

[TheFarS1de]

26. That would make a interesting OP

You can certainly see the hypocrisy expecting the voters to back the nominee but not the politicians backing the voters choice .

[Jackilope]

37. +1

(BTW, love your user name!! Give my regards to the Farkel family, Ferd. Great looking bunch of kids they've got.)

[Ferd Berfel]

45. THanks, Can't figure out why they all have red hair though

[Jackilope]

46. LOL!

Freckles and glasses as well!

When I was a student in Junior High, one if our social studies teachers would use Ferd Berfel as a student example. Ferd would sometimes get called to the office or appear on the detention list. It wasn't until seeing Laugh Inn reruns that I made the connection. . Seeing your posts on here makes me smile.

[Motown_Johnny]

47. It would damage the Party for at least a generation.

If they try to pull something like that we will all be screwed. Liberals will not allow back room deals to select a nominee. If it is forced upon us then the Democratic party will have outlived it usefulness.

[Ferd Berfel]

51. I think it would force some to start another party

Despite how painful and difficult that would be

[coyote]

17. Oh yes

Overriding the will of the people, that idea will go over well.

[Enthusiast]

27. Just goes to show you.

My opinion of Ford Jr. could not get any lower.

[closeupready]

19. Biden or Kerry ... well if so, lol, those two are both flawed candidates.

Good Democrats for the most part, but with really flawed records.

[bread_and_roses]

23. NPR evidently doesn't even know he's running

This is unbelievable - heard at top of hour newscap on radio, then went to website only to see the same thing

http://www.npr.org/2016/01/10/462581269/5-things-to-watch-for-in-obamas-final-state-of-the-union

4. How will Obama use the speech to help Hillary Clinton's campaign?

In his last State of the Union address, the president framed the coming election in terms of the economic debate. He talked about widely shared prosperity and focused on inclusive growth, not just redistribution. And that's the frame Hillary Clinton has chosen for her campaign. Expect to hear more about that on Tuesday night.

The verbal framing was even worse - I can't recall the exact wording from the newscast, but it was something like: .... the best way for Obama to preserve his legacy is to have Hillary Clinton win the Presidency .....

I hope some tweeters caught it and are nailing them for such bias

[Enthusiast]

28. NPR has gone over to the Dark Side.

It is more obvious than ever. Join me in my boycott of NPR.

[bread_and_roses]

53. oh I'm there with you - long time now

National Propaganda Radio will never see a $ for me as long as they continue in the corporate mode they've adopted. All my friends (or nearly all) say, "oh, but they're better than commercial radio." And I say they're even more dangerous, since they give the illusion of not being in the pockets of all their corporate sponsors.

[Enthusiast]

55. Right on!

[Jack Rabbit]

29. Mara Liarson again?

What a tool she is. When Bernie wins the nomination in August, is she going to pretend that the last Republican clown standing is running unopposed? Next year, will she report that Hillary has been inaugurated instead of President Sanders?

[libdem4life]

25. I think we're past the "What If" Stage

and closing in on the "WhaT iF" Stage.

[Gothmog]

34. Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will not be the nominee

Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, it is unlikely that he will be the nominee http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19....

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Iowa and New Hampshire do not represent the demographics of the Democratic Party and so will not help sanders

I would not put too much faith in the results of Iowa, New Hampshire, Utah or Vermont

[Gothmog]

35. What Happens If Bernie Wins Iowa and New Hampshire?

Here is another good analysis that agrees with Nate Silver http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/11/bernie_sanders_could_win_iowa_and_new_hampshire.html

What would not change, though, is that Clinton would remain the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that won’t soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldn’t change that.

She’d also have a chance to get back on her feet—and fast. Consider what comes next: Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), two significantly more diverse states than lily-white Iowa and lily-whiter New Hampshire, and two places where Clinton currently enjoys massive leads in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Clinton holds a 20-point advantage in Nevada and a whopping 40-point lead in South Carolina. March brings better news still for the former secretary of state, starting with a Super Tuesday slate that includes friendly territory in the form of southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The rest of the month, meanwhile, includes several big, delegate-rich contests that she won eight years ago during her battle with Barack Obama: Michigan, Florida, and Ohio. Yes, Sanders could have the momentum this time next month, but it’ll be on him to to find a way to keep it as he heads into significantly more challenging terrain than Iowa or New Hampshire, which were always going to offer his best chance at pulling off an early upset or two.

None of this is to say that Clinton has the nomination locked up already. She doesn’t. But if Iowa and New Hampshire are must-wins for anyone, it’s Sanders. Hillary can—and likely would—survive a slow start and still be the one standing on stage at the Democratic National Convention when the balloons come down this summer. Bernie, though, has no such margin of error.

Sanders is doing well in states with 90+% white voting populations and these states are not sufficient for Sanders to win the nomination. There are four states where Sanders is polling well in: Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont. Texas has almost twice the number of delegates of these four states combined

[Dawson Leery]

42. +1,000,000

[sonofspy777]

48. So this is a"good" analysis becaise you believe it.

Hillary won't survive anything...she and her negative campaign (lies!) will go down

eom.

[Gothmog]

58. Really?

Has Sanders picked up in the polling in Nevada or South Carolina?

[Gothmog]

59. Bernie Sanders can win Iowa and New Hampshire. Then what?

Many people are wondering what Sanders will do after Iowa and New Hampshire http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/politics/bernie-sanders-south-carolina-democratic-debate/index.html

But for all the good news for Sanders, he still faces the same electability question: can a Democratic socialist from the second-whitest state in the country win voters that actually look like the rest of the Democratic Party? After Iowa and New Hampshire -- two overwhelmingly white states -- Sanders faces an electorate that is much more diverse and not as familiar with Sanders, especially in the South, which at the moment is Clinton Country.

If he can't expand his base, Sanders can tout all the polls he wants that show him doing better than Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head contests with Republicans, but he won't be the Democratic nominee.

It's an issue he will have to address beginning at Sunday night's Democratic presidential debate in Charleston, South Carolina.

Clinton has been out ahead of Sanders in courting black voters, touting this week an endorsement from Obama's former attorney general, Eric Holder, who said that Clinton is the best candidate to build on Obama's legacy. He will appear with the former secretary of state in an upcoming swing in South Carolina.

Clinton supporters say that her team understands the bloc of voters that drives the overall black vote. "The key demographic that matters is African-American women and Karen Finney and LaDavia Drane and Maya Harris are very much focused on that group," said Bakari Sellers, a former state legislator in South Carolina and CNN contributor, listing Clinton's top aides. "They are going to message and organize and not just win it, but lock it down overwhelmingly."

[druidity33]

49. It'll be interesting

to see the January polls from Nevada and S Carolina. Bernie will surely be making up ground, we'll see how much...

[WillyT]

40. Evening Kick !!!

[Warren DeMontague]

44. KICK AND REC

[ViseGrip]

50. What if ???

[Babel_17]

52. I'd like to see good polling regarding "anyone but Bush/Clinton", and "anyone but that Socialist"

Fair or not, it's a consideration, and something either candidate will have to deal with once nominated. Almost makes me think some of Bush's support is there so as to make people think "no political dynasties", and have people write off Clinton.

Hey, I said "almost".

[Betty Karlson]

54. All these articles coming out for Sanders, exposing him, comparing his ideas to Clinton's...

It tells me Clinton is being abandoned by some of her media pals.

"What if" is a nice question to say "It probably is but I want to make my Come to Jesus moment a gradual one"

[DisgustipatedinCA]

56. Welcome to the party, Atlantic. Please stop by the Clue Table on your way in and pick one up.