Sanders received 15 hard-pledged delegates in NH. Clinton received 9 hard-pledged delegates.
Months before last night's primary results were known, 6 of the soft-pledged superdelegates stated they would back Clinton. A 7th superdelegate, state Sen. Martha Fuller Clark, stated she would wait until after the primary to endorse. The 8th superdelegate, NH Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley, was prohibited from supporting anyone in the primary. He is now free to support who he wants.
So, as of right now, the delegate count is tied at 15 to 15, as long as each of the 6 unpledged superdelegates continues to back Clinton all the way through the convention. That is an unlikely scenario, as, in previous primaries, superdelegates have changed their support to mirror how their constituents voted in the primary. So these are the actual combinations that could now occur:
Sanders - Clinton
15 -------- 09 (all 8 superdelegates abstain)
15 -------- 10 (7 superdelegates abstain and 1 remains soft-pledged to Clinton)
15 -------- 11 (6 superdelegates abstain and 2 remain soft-pledged to Clinton--etc down the list)
15 -------- 12
15 -------- 13
15 -------- 14
15 -------- 15 (the last 2 available superdelegates abstain)
15 -------- 16 (1 supports Clinton, 1 abstains)
15 -------- 17 (both support Clinton)
16 -------- 15 (1 supports Sanders, 1 abstains)
16 -------- 16 (they split the 2 remaining superdelegate)
17 -------- 15 (both support Sanders)
18 -------- 14 (both support Sanders and 1 also defects from Clinton to Sanders)
19 -------- 13 (both support Sanders and 2 also defects from Clinton to Sanders--etc down the list)
20 -------- 12
21 -------- 11
22 -------- 10
23 -------- 09
So, in 2 scenarios they tie, in 2 scenarios Clinton wins NH, and in 14 scenarios Sanders wins NH.
I'm liking Sanders' chances of a win at the convention...
