Bernie revealed how he going to win. (and how he can do it only 1671 pledged delegates)

[jg10003]

PART 1:
The first question at the Miami debate:

SALINAS: ....What is your pathway to make up the deficit, and can you realistically catch up?

SANDERS: ... And I think in the coming weeks and months, we are going to continue to do extremely well, win a number of these primaries, and convince super-delegates that Bernie Sanders is the strongest candidate to defeat Donald Trump.

PART 2:
There are 4051 pledged delegates [PD] and 713 super-delegates[SD]: total = 4764 total delegates.

(4764/2) + 1 = 2383 delegates to win the nomination.

Bill Clinton & Wasserman-Schultz are SD, therefore Hillary can clinch the nomination with 2381 PD (58.776% of total PD)

4051 - 2381 = 1670
1670 + 1 = 1671.
Bernie needs 1671 PD (41.250% of total PD) in order to prevent Hillary from clinching the nomination with just pledged delegates.

Of course 1671 PD is just the theoretical minimum that Bernie needs, this would still put Hillary just one SD short of the nomination. However, if Bernie were to win 1771 PD (Hillary wins 2280 PD) then Hillary would be 100 SD short of the nomination.

The last primary is June 14 and the convention starts July 25. A lot can happen in five and a half weeks, especially since the GOP has its convention first. If after the GOP convention the polls show that Bernie is a significantly stronger candidate against the GOP nominee then is Hillary, then the super-delegates will have to nominate him. Hillary can argue that she won the majority of pledged delegates, but at the convention all that matters is who can win the general election.

[thereismore]

1. Interesting, but I don't think that's what Bernie meant.

I think he was saying he's going to get the majority of PD and then convince SD's who promised their vote to Hillary to honor the PD situation and not fuck it up for the people.

[HooptieWagon]

3. I'm pretty sure you're correct.

I don't think Sanders intends to claim the nomination with under 50% of the pledged delegates, nor do I think the Super delegates would go along. The only scenario that might work is if Hillary is indicted before the Convention, and the super delegates don't want to go into the GE with a badly damaged candidate. But Sandrs can't put all his eggs into that basket.

[daleanime]

4. +1

[dana_b]

5. I think you're correct

it makes the most sense too and if he does get the most pledged delegates, WE are going to have to pressure the SDs like nobody's business!!

Howard Dean thinks it's bad now??? lol..

[gcomeau]

2. That's not what he was saying.

He was responding specifically to how to make up the deficit that included Clinton's claimed early possession of large numbers of supers saying those supers would switch given a reason. He was not outlining some plan to how to win the overall primary by relying on supers.

He needs to win the pledged total for the same reason we've been lecturing Clinton supporters on why they can't just rely on Supers to give her the nomination.

There are only two options here.

1. Whoever wins the pledged delegares gets the nod, and everyone unifies behind them.

2. Whoever wins pledged delegates loses because the supers all go to the other person and overturn the result of a year long primary and the votes of millions of people. And those people go ballistic and hordes of them walk out on the General Election resulting in freaking disaster.


It MUST be option 1 or we're all fucked.

[jg10003]

6. At the convention all that matters is who can beat Trump or Cruz

What happened in the primaries will be ancient history.

[gcomeau]

7. And who can win will be heavily dependent...

...on not completely blowing up their chances to win by absolutely enraging half of the voting population of the primaries by overturning their vote.

[BernieforPres2016]

8. The chances that the DNC would go against Hillary for Bernie if she had more regular delegates

are zero. Don't be delusional.