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BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
Fri May 1, 2015, 11:18 AM May 2015

Mythbusting for Bernie: He's unelectable in the general

So far, the main objection to supporting Bernie Sanders is that "he can't win." So many people *wish* that he could, would support him if he could, but believe only an avalanche of corporate ca$h and the support of insiders, kingmakers, and superdelegates can get a candidate across the finish line. They don't believe the general public will vote for a Socialist! (even a Democratic Socialist because no one knows the difference). The outcome is a Republican president and a conservative SCOTUS for the rest of our lives.

Here is an analysis via DKos from November 2014. It shows that it is almost statistically impossible for a Republican to win a presidential national election.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/20/1346224/-GOP-Columnist-The-VERY-Bad-News-FOR-THE-GOP-in-the-GOP-s-Midterm-Victory

In a careful analysis, Ladd builds a case: The Midterms of 2014 demonstrate the continuation of a 20 year old trend. Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level where the population is the largest utilizing a declining electoral base of waging, white, and rural voters. As a result no GOP candidate on the horizon has a chance at the White House in 2016 and the chance of holding the Senate beyond 2016 is vanishingly small.

The author points to the Blue Wall.


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The Blue Wall is a block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. On Election Day that block added New Hampshire to its number and Virginia is shifting. At the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. If Virginia joins New Hampshire that number will be 270 out of 270.

To win a GOP candidate has to win all nine “tossup” state and one solidly Blue state. Thus, in the next, and into the foreseeable future, Presidential elections will be decided in the Democratic Primary. What are the chances that a Republican candidate capable of appealing to the increasingly right wing GOP will appeal to enough Democrats to win in tossup and Blue states?

But what about that RED Map….well it accounts for 149 electoral votes. The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. What was Red before in electoral politics is still Red (and maybe less Red considering NH and VA).


So let's remember that and share this information far and wide: Presidential elections are decided in the Democratic Primary.

The Republicans will be nominating a racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-immigration, right wing Christian because that is the only one who can get past the primary. I am 99.99% sure that person is Jeb Bush, a candidate so awful, so shocking, I doubt he's going to attract a lot of moderate Democratic or Independent voters. The same can be said for anyone in the clown car. Libertarians, Greens, and young Independents are flocking to Bernie in droves and I believe anyone who isn't a bible/gun thumper on the Republican side will too due to his populist message.

Keep remembering and don't let the propaganda get to you--Bernie can win. If he wins the primary, he wins the general.

20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Mythbusting for Bernie: He's unelectable in the general (Original Post) BrotherIvan May 2015 OP
Maybe n2doc May 2015 #1
Here is the map for 2012 BrotherIvan May 2015 #3
I still think Rick Snyder is going to jump in as soon as he is done laying Michigan to waste corkhead May 2015 #2
I think the difference is turnout BrotherIvan May 2015 #6
As a former Iowan, I think that come 2016, Iowans will be sick of having two Republican senators... cascadiance May 2015 #4
Some other DUers are saying he's been playing well in Iowa BrotherIvan May 2015 #7
Look at his opposition Jester Messiah May 2015 #5
You said it BrotherIvan May 2015 #8
A loathsome, rapacious, repugnant creature indeed. Enthusiast May 2015 #10
I've been trying to explain this to people... Scootaloo May 2015 #15
You said earwax Caretha May 2015 #16
I can't look at him without the word 'sebum" coming to mind Scootaloo May 2015 #17
HEY! Not cool! Jester Messiah May 2015 #18
K&R! This post deserves hundreds of recommendations! Enthusiast May 2015 #9
I hope some people read it BrotherIvan May 2015 #11
I'm a spreadin'. Enthusiast May 2015 #12
Believe it or not- Bernie can get support from nationalize the fed May 2015 #13
I'm no fan of Ron Paul supporters BrotherIvan May 2015 #14
The establishment that profits from profitable candidates have power Dragonfli May 2015 #19
Bernie can win BrotherIvan May 2015 #20

n2doc

(47,953 posts)
1. Maybe
Fri May 1, 2015, 11:22 AM
May 2015

Nothing is a given. I worry about PA, Wisc, Mich, NM in the blue columns, and can say that WV, NC, GA, MO, And AZ are likely in the red. Florida and Ohio again loom large, and I hate hate hate that. Too many bad memories of 2000 and 2004.

BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
3. Here is the map for 2012
Fri May 1, 2015, 11:54 AM
May 2015

Some of that is in flux, but not as much as one might think. As I said, whomever would appeal to the Republican base will not appeal in the general. The reason why Republicans have been winning local/state elections is low turnout.

Sorry the image is big. But if you look at Obama's 2012 map, it gets pretty surprising. And I don't think Rmoney was nearly as well-loathed as Jeb.


corkhead

(6,119 posts)
2. I still think Rick Snyder is going to jump in as soon as he is done laying Michigan to waste
Fri May 1, 2015, 11:25 AM
May 2015

Michigan is blue on your map and Snyder got elected rather easily twice.
I think Bernie could beat him in the general, but I worry about whether HRC would.

BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
6. I think the difference is turnout
Fri May 1, 2015, 12:21 PM
May 2015

I think the same new & young voters that came out for Obama will come out for Bernie. I think it will split quite clearly between those who get their news from MSM/TV and the internet. We have to help to make sure there is a structure to educate and help them do that. We have to be the juggernaut organization that Obama was able to set up last time with tons of money. We have to do it on a budget. But it can be done.

 

cascadiance

(19,537 posts)
4. As a former Iowan, I think that come 2016, Iowans will be sick of having two Republican senators...
Fri May 1, 2015, 12:09 PM
May 2015

... especially the way Joni Ernst has been in public lately. They will start to miss the gem they had before in Tom Harkin! I think that they might come out with a vengeance to support a Democrat in the general election. Especially since they are a caucus state that gets the big attention at the beginning of the race that would allow someone like Bernie to do what he does best, and that is to meet voters person to person, that he has done so well to win as senator in Vermont.

BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
7. Some other DUers are saying he's been playing well in Iowa
Fri May 1, 2015, 12:23 PM
May 2015

I think that Iowans (and yes, I have been there) like straight talk. I think A LOT of people like honest, forthright arguments. I may not always agree with every single one of Bernie's positions, but whenever I hear his argument, I RESPECT his reasoning and fearless honesty. It will be a sad day if he gets crushed by the Kochs and the corporations.

 

Jester Messiah

(4,711 posts)
5. Look at his opposition
Fri May 1, 2015, 12:14 PM
May 2015

A bunch of knuckle-dragging bible-thumping hate-spewing racist bigots. Whoever gets the Democratic nomination will win when the American People get a good look at the alternative.

BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
8. You said it
Fri May 1, 2015, 12:27 PM
May 2015

I mean honestly, how on earth could any one get excited about Jebba the Bush? He is a loathsome, rapacious, repugnant creature. If they think they can repackage the worst president in history and the Iraq War this soon, it has to be a plan to steal the whole thing. Or they have an Iran hostage/911 type October surprise in the works--and I would not put it past those evil fucks one bit.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
15. I've been trying to explain this to people...
Fri May 1, 2015, 04:06 PM
May 2015

That no matter who wins the primary, Democrats are taking the general. There is no meaningful competition from the Republicans. Their best challenger was shouted down in January - yes, Romney was their best hope, and what a sorry hope that was.

Can anyone here picture americans taking a Rubio candidacy seriously? Another Bush is doomed from the start. Paul might have fair odds, but he's so completely fucking tone deaf that he'll crash and burn well before the election. Walker is one of the most reviled politicians in the nation. Ted Cruz looks like an elf carved out of earwax and is dumb as a brick. It's like an entire roster of Herman Cain.

Given that Democrats are going to win, then, why not go for the best, most liberal candidate that we can? There's no need to cede ground and retreat. No need to run our own conservatives to compete.

Fuck, a Kucinich / McKinney ticket would have a shot, that's how irrelevant Republicans are this time.

Enthusiast

(50,983 posts)
9. K&R! This post deserves hundreds of recommendations!
Fri May 1, 2015, 03:00 PM
May 2015

I think the nation will find Bernie very appealing. Just imagine, an honest man of integrity!

BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
11. I hope some people read it
Fri May 1, 2015, 03:03 PM
May 2015

And really think about what it means. The MSM narrative is falsely created to prop up the candidate(s) of their choosing. I think it's time WE choose. Maybe you can help me spread the word.

nationalize the fed

(2,169 posts)
13. Believe it or not- Bernie can get support from
Fri May 1, 2015, 03:57 PM
May 2015

Ron Paul fans!

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders to run for president
Posted By JD on Tue, 04/28/2015

ajnock replied on Wed, 04/29/2015

Offered a choice between two socialists who favor the war on terror, the TPP, and surveillance without warrant (Hillary and Jeb), on one hand, and, on the other, a socialist who opposes these three institutions (Bernie Sanders), many conservatives and libertarians will not only vote for Mr. Sanders, but will join his Democratic Party primary campaign.
http://popularliberty.com/comment/9308#comment-9308

And this from the site owner Michael Nystrom

Michael Nystrom replied on Wed, 04/29/2015 - 10:19

At least he's against war
And that counts for something in my book.
http://popularliberty.com/comment/9206#comment-9206

*Popular Liberty was "The Daily Paul.com" (one of the top 2 Paul sites in the nation) until Rand announced and the site owner changed the name because he doesn't like Rand.

Bernie Sanders - the New Revolution!

Volunteer to help Bernie:
https://berniesanders.com/volunteer/

BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
14. I'm no fan of Ron Paul supporters
Fri May 1, 2015, 04:02 PM
May 2015

But Bernie hits quite a few chords with libertarian types such as war, surveillance, and weed. I see a lot of them commenting on his threads. I'm not sure they knew Paul was a raging crackpot racist, but his appeal stemmed from the fact that he was an alternative to a corrupt system.

The difference between a Ron Paul/Ross Perot/Nader situation is that Bernie is part of the system and has a very long track record. He's "kooky" to the Beltway, but not to the 99%. That's the biggest difference.

Dragonfli

(10,622 posts)
19. The establishment that profits from profitable candidates have power
Sat May 2, 2015, 10:04 PM
May 2015

In the two parties, in the media, and in their checkbooks.

The one thing that can defeat them is a public that has grown apathetic to voting (the disaffected, the disenfranchised and the youth) that see quite clearly that thing one and thing two are not fighting for them (they realize that one of the things is also a nasty bigot which encourages some to vote on both sides).

This public ignored by the elite politicians and donors can vote and will again if they see someone that fight s for them.

All those apathetic voters wake up when inspired by someone finally on their side, this is their greatest fear and the greatest weapon of these people left behind.

Clinton can not tap this immense resource, Bernie Sanders can!

If Sanders wins the nomination, he wins the general, no matter how much the money screams and their political servants try to stop them, people will vote for someone finally on their side.

The only thing stopping Sanders from becoming president is doubt and fear, it is very true that the only thing to fear is fear itself if it stops people from supporting a candidate that can awaken the disaffected, choosing instead, because of fear the best funded.

Clinton could win because of the realities you so clearly presented, but a real champion of most of the people would ensure victory.

BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)
20. Bernie can win
Sun May 3, 2015, 12:07 AM
May 2015

If the people stand up and say enough! They have to wake up. They have to feel it's important enough to them, though they've been told that government is ruining their lives and they just think it's a fact of life. They've been brainwashed to think that they have no power. Bernie Sanders is the kind of candidate people would have demanded before Reagan but now he is marginalized. He "can't win" because he is working for the people. I say fuck that. Obama capitalized on people's hearts and then turned around and served the people that paid for his campaigns. In my community of African Americans, Latinos, and Asians, we realize that Obama is merely symbolic and that he hasn't stuck his neck out for us. Bernie wants to find another way and I think it is despicable to say that a candidate who matches what the people want: Social Security, Medicare, Public Education, Worker's Rights, Jobs, and every social issue; is a fantasy. People need to really check themselves and deeply explore how they have internalized the master's beliefs. They work for US, not the other way around.

Thanks for writing, it has been enjoyable discussing the issues with you.

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