Can Bernie Win It ? Part Two ( A summary and some additional info )

[agracie]

Last edited Sun May 1, 2016, 12:59 AM - Edit history (1)

Feel the Math

On account of the “yuge” response and the sustained interest in the topic, I have decided to publish a hastily-written follow-up article to “This is How the Democratic Primaries Will End,” which will address the most popular challenges that I found in the comment sections, while offering you another round of sound, promising-looking numbers to bolster the Berners’ already-unshakable resolve.

The Clinton-Machine, the DNC, and the media want us to believe that the fight is over — and, my friends, if we do believe that, then it will be over. Which is why we must refuse to accept their shaky narrative, no matter how many times the million-dollar troll-army repeats it! They may have all the power and money but they still don’t get to think for us — we will dispel their silly illusions with fearlessness, solidarity, tenacity, and, strangely, arithmetic.

NOTE: As always, please check my math and, if there are any problems (or typos), I shall fix them immediately — thanks in advance!

Now, in the last article, (If you didn’t read it, HERE ya go) we went over the math, step-by-step, that shows that:

1.) Hillary Clinton will not be “clinching” the nomination before the convention on July 25th, and that:

2.) If Bernie Sanders (cheers) were to secure 64.4% of the remaining vote, he would be going to the convention with 2,026 pledged delegates, which would be a majority of the delegates that we actually voted about (that is, if you did indeed get to vote for them — the DNC sincerely appologizes, particularly to Arizona and New York. What a pity. Apparantly, independents can go #$%@ themselves…).

Therefore,

3.) It is within Sanders reach to contest the convention with a majority of pledged delegates, the certain promise to bring millions of independent votes into the race, and a fairly impressive list of valid complaints against the primary processes, which often seemed to skew the results in his opponent’s favor. The super-delegates will have time between the last primary and the convention to consider all of this — in addition to the fact that a recent WSJ/NBC poll shows that 58% of the people “cannot see themselves voting for Hillary Clinton,” while Sanders, as well as having the democratic vote, would bring in his millions of independent supporters who were unable to vote in most primaries — the same independents that will make up 43% of voters in the general election! Bottom line: If Sanders can make it to 2,026 pledged delegates, he will be in command at the convention.

Now, let’s address the most often utilized counter arguments that I was finding in the comments.

Counter-argument #1:

The most pervasive critique — and a fair, if incorrect, one — was some variation of “the author measured Clinton’s odds against gaining 2,383 delegates but measured Sanders’ against gaining 2,026 delegates — and that’s misleading.”

I can understand how this confusion arose for some of you and I fully sympathize, as the primaries are a convoluted, headache-inducing, and often counter-intuitive process (and don’t get me started on why “they” set it up that way). But this math is **not misleading** and let me tell you why:

First, let me clear this up: the so-called “super-delegates” do not cast their vote until the convention in July. Until then, they’re basically just talking. Of course, they could vote against the people’s will — but that would be unprecedented because, in the past, they have aligned with the candidate who had the most pledged delegates. Now, since neither Clinton’s nor Sanders’ super-delegates count until the convention, I proceeded to use only those delegates that actually count, right now.

In the first part of the article, I showed you the math which demonstrates the extreme unlikelihood of Clinton reaching 2,383 delegates before the convention, which would’ve “clinched” the nomination for her. Because a few people had trouble with this, here is my rationale: it’s true that she could gain 2,026 delegates before the convention but 2,026 delegates does not “clinch” the nomination. I started with that bit of math because the media has been repeating the narrative that the primaries are basically over, while praying to their twisted corporate gods that someone wouldn’t expose their tomfoolery by doing the math themselves. So I did it. Sorry, not sorry.

The first part of the article was only to show that it was almost impossible for Clinton to avoid a contested convention by clinching the nomination.

In the second part, I briefly touch on the percentage (99.6%) that Sanders would need to do the same, which is obviously beyond his reach. From there, since no one will be clinching the nomination, I switched to the number 2,026, which is the “tipping point” where a candidate would have a majority of pledged delegates — and that number, my friends, is within reach of both candidates. I assure you that, regardless of how the media portrays what is happening right now, both Sanders and Clinton are very, very, mindful of this number — because whoever gets it will use this as a powerful argument for their nomination at the convention. [cue dramatic music]

This is the game, for right now — to cross the line of 2,026 delegates. And we do that with 64.4% of the vote — or higher.

Counter-argument #2:

“But Sanders would have to win the rest of the races with margins that he hasn’t achieved since the race in his own home-state of Vermont!” I saw this one a lot, too.

Well, I’m honestly surprised that variations of this “argument” were popping up all over the place because it’s complete non-sense. Again, the Clinton campaign and their corporate-media accomplices, however sly they may be, are no match for numbers! Remember, the “margin” that they’re referring to is Sanders winning with 64.4% of the vote, at the moment. Now, let’s take a look at all the reasons that these statements are rubbish — all 9 of them.

Since Vermont (which he won with 86.1%), Sanders has won:

1. Minesota with 61.6%

2. Kansas with 67.7%

3. Maine with 64.3

4. Dems Abroad with 69%

5. Idaho with 78%

6. Utah with 79%

7. Alaska with 81%

8. Hawaii with 69.8%

And, last but certainly not least,

9. Washington with 72%

All of these victories — which were all since Vermont, I might add — average out to 71.4% over 9 states–well, 8 states and one “Democrats Abroad” primary, anyway. Like so:

61.6 + 67.7 + 64.3 + 69 + 78 + 79 + 81 + 69.8 + 72 = 642.4

And

642.4 / 9 = 71.37 or 71.4% on average

Now, because I am refuting the nonsense that Sanders hasn’t shown that he can win with 64.4% since Vermont, I chose not to include Vermont’s 86.1% victory and to only include those victories that were with over 60% since Vermont to drive that point home. But, of course, now you’ll say, “John, aren’t you being disingenuous by not including the other states that Sanders won by a narrower margin?” To which I would reply, “My god, you’re right! Well, we’d better remedy it then — shall we?”

Of course, as you’ve astutely pointed out: Sanders, defying all expectations, also took Michigan in that time period with 49.8% in an unprecedented upset, won Colorado with 59%, Oklahoma with 51.9%, Nebraska with 57.1%, Wisconsin with 56.6%, Wyoming with 55.7%, and Rhode Island with 55%. If we include these 8 victories, our number will drop a bit, but let’s see how it all works out…

642.4 + 86.1 + 49.8 + 59 + 51.9 + 57.1 + 56.6 + 55.7 + 55 = 1,113.6

And

1,113.6 / 17 = 65.505 or 65.5% on average

As you can see, the average percentage with which Sanders dispatches the elections that he wins is actually 1.1% higher than 64.4%, the average Sanders will need to take the lead in pledged delegates before the convention. Of course, the goal of 64.4% will fluctuate, depending on how many states Clinton takes and how much higher we can push our margins in other states. Anyway, let’s take Indiana first and see if we can even the odds a bit (that means you, phonebanking!).

It will be a fierce battle, probably very much like the one between Rohan and Saruman at Helms Deep — but it can be won. There are 14 primaries to go and Sanders is widely expected to do well in the western states, including Oregon, which is likely to bern like Washington did (I’m in the Portland area, incidentally, and let me tell you…), and California, where there’s a semi-open primary and where Sanders is widely expected to do well. In fact, a majority of the states coming up are looking promising for many of the same reasons that Sanders pulled off his last 8 out of 10 streak — the same streak, I’ll remind you, which included numbers like 78, 79, 81, and 69.8%. The only state that seems particularly iff-y is New Jersey — so, if there are any New Jersians (New Jerseyites? Jersoholics? Nevermind…), you all should get on those phones, now! And fan the flames!

Anyway, I expect not to hear this non-sense from now on. I will surely live a life steeped in disappointment, but I expect it nonetheless, on principle.

Don’t listen to those trolls,

WE CAN WIN

Remember, no matter how hopeful you become — and truly, there is every reason to be hopeful — do not become complacent, friends! This is not the time to sit back! We are going to have to fight for every single delegate that we can get — even in the face of rigged elections, “voting irregularities,” and, god forbid, voter roll purges — but if we remain united, throw all of our support behind Sanders, and show up by the tens of thousands (or more!), then I really believe that we can do this and that another way of living is possible. Over the last day, 250,000 people have visited this site alone, not to mention all the news sites that have used these numbers or reprinted this story, and I’ve heard from people across the entire world that were inspired by these numbers. I think it’s meaningful that we say we “feel the bern” because Bernie Sanders, this movement — all of us — we have sown a kind of fire on the world and, now, we should tend it to a blaze. We can win — or so a little #birdie told me…

In Solidarity,
John Laurits

#SeeYouInPhilly

P.S. If there are any other points that you’d like me to address, please comment them! I will edit them in as we go along!

P.P.S. Please reuse any of this material, as you see fit — attribution would be nice but, when all’s said and done, I don’t really care — Peace

https://johnlaurits.com/2016/04/29/math-vs-media-part-two/

[ViseGrip]

1. Many scenarios show there is no reason not to fight on, it means everything!

[JDPriestly]

2. We are working hard in California!

[Iwillnevergiveup]

5. Damn straight!

I hosted a phone banking to Indiana today, and so a few more people are up and running. The procedure is so fast, high tech and awesome, and if I (non millenial, non techie) caught on, anyone can.

K&R

[dchill]

3. K&R, and THANK YOU!

[grasswire]

4. excellent

I shared your FB post with someone who has a big audience there.

[LiberalElite]

6. Kicking nt

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. Outstanding! FEEL THE MATH!

Those damn facts get in they way AGAIN. What's an oligarch to do?

We can do this!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[mak3cats]

8. K & R!! (eom)

[lmbradford]

9. Best thread out there...