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Mon Nov 2, 2015, 10:09 PM

 

What can Bernie do to close the gap in Iowa?

The new PPP poll that came out today is worrisome. It's the first poll with an even age distribution that shows Bernie down by a significant amount. Now, I know that one poll doesn't tell the whole story, but it should raise some concern. So my question is this: What can Bernie do to close the gap in Iowa?

Personally, I think he needs to campaign there more. He needs to talk to people who haven't already heard his message and start gathering new supporters. This means targeting specific age groups, mainly 45-65. This is where he is getting beaten badly and needs to make up ground. The youth vote alone won't bail him out of a severe enough deficit and even there Hillary is winning at the moment by 3 points.

I'm confident, as I'm sure the rest of you are, that Bernie will bring new people out to vote, but how many can we realistically depend on? How big of a deficit is too big? Get out there Bernie. Get your people on the streets and on the phones talking to new people.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Nov 2, 2015, 10:11 PM

1. Well, Clinton's been running a ton of ads there since late summer

and Sanders is about to put out his first one.

Patience. The campaign is just really starting.

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Response to jeff47 (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 2, 2015, 10:13 PM

2. Are campaign ads enough though?

 

Iowans like to meet their candidates face to face. O'Malley's been doing a great job of this, and he's seen a bump in the latest poll as a result. Does anybody know what Sanders' ground game is like?

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 2, 2015, 10:20 PM

4. It's an example of just how early in the campaign we are. (nt)

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Response to jeff47 (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 2, 2015, 10:17 PM

3. Patience, indeed ...

 

It's going to be a slog ... we all know that .... contribute what you can when you can ... He has a damned good chance of rising much higher ...

Maybe Bernie has just started this conversation ... I expect Bernie is going to carry on this fight like he has all along ... With grace, honesty and spirit ... I love the guy ...

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Mon Nov 2, 2015, 10:42 PM

5. He can pray for an overwhelmingly white & male turnout

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Response to mwrguy (Reply #5)

Mon Nov 2, 2015, 10:46 PM

6. Take this disgusting swiftboating bullshit elsewhere.

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Response to mwrguy (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 12:02 AM

7. Aren't demographics why Iowa "didn't count" just a month ago?

 

You know, when sanders was polling ahead?

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Response to mwrguy (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 01:47 AM

8. I am not going to alert on you this time,

and I don't believe I ever have done that on anybody. But this is a clear violation of the rules of the road, imo. I probably will if you bring more negativity into this group with another post like this.

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Response to mwrguy (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 08:05 AM

13. Did you realize you're posting in the Bernie Sanders group

as opposed to GD: P where we see this kind of crap on a daily basis?

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 02:05 AM

9. This looks completely as unscientific as any online poll where Bernie wins IA handily.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 638 usual Republican primary voters and 615 usual Democratic
primary voters from October 30th to November 1st. The margin of error for both parties is +/-
3.9%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have
landlines conducted the survey over the internet.


With 80% landline, this poll comes close to eliminating young Millenials, Bernie's strongest demographic. "Usual" Democratic primary voters also skews against Millenials. Only "Democratic" in the sample omits two categories where Bernie does better: Independents and Republicans.

No telling what the real numbers are, but the most credible polls I have seen put Bernie down in IA about 6-7 points which is perfectly understandable given the millions HRC has poured into ads in the last month. Our air game is just now coming up and there is a canvassing push this coming weekend. I can't go because I'm working on Saturday, but spread the word if you know anybody in an adjacent state. If you need a contact to get hooked up, I can try to connect you. Maybe they could even put people up on a couch. I've done that in Iowa a couple of times.

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Response to Admiral Loinpresser (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 08:30 PM

16. I wouldn't bank on that.

 

Discrediting polls is a surefire way to delude yourself. I'm sorry to have to use such strong rhetoric, but I've seen it happen with other candidates and their supporters.

As for being in Iowa, I would *love* to do that. Unfortunately, I'm a grad student halfway across the country. If anything, I would try and get on the ground in New Hampshire. But yes, canvassing is a great way to go, and I hope Bernie starts making more small-time appearances there.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #16)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 12:03 AM

17. So you believe 80%

of the American public relies on landlines? I find the premise absurd. I also find absurd the premise that the use of landlines is uniformly distributed between different age demographics. Please explain what I am missing.

I have seen polls recently saying that Bernie is down 40 points in Iowa and others that he is down 7. They can't both be even close to right.

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Response to Admiral Loinpresser (Reply #17)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 08:48 AM

18. You're not going to like me saying this, but...

 

This is the same type of stuff the Ron Paul folks used to say. Almost word for word. You're right, many people don't use landlines, but even so these types of polls tend to be accurate more times than not. I hope I'm wrong. I *want* to be wrong, but I wouldn't count on it.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #18)

Wed Nov 4, 2015, 11:16 AM

19. It's OK, I'm not upset.

But the cognitive dissonance of one Iowa poll with a nonscientific methodology at 40 points, and another poll at 7 points. Which do you think is more realistic. Based on the polling history, I'm going with the seven points and attributing the incredible discrepancy to methodology.

I don't think Ron Paul is at all an apt comparison. Forget his lack of common sense about reality, merely viewing him in the horse race sense, Paul was never a credible candidate, whereas, Bernie started at virtually zero and became a serious candidate in about three to four months.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 04:02 AM

10. There's no way she's up that far

Selzer has an A+ rating from 538, and has her up only 48-41. Qunnipiac and CBS are in agreement with Selzer.

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Response to jfern (Reply #10)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 07:59 AM

12. Looking at the details of the poll provided, it was based on "615 Democratic primary voters"

but doesn't explain how PPP decided someone was a Democratic primary voter. My guess is that they're screening for people who have voted in previous Dem primaries, which would undersample young and disaffected voters, two subpopulations Bernie is doing extremely well with.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 05:09 AM

11. Continue to run on the issues and stay positive.

Never get sucked in by David Brock's online army of trolls.

Continue being honest and keep your cool.
We'll need our cool, whatever the outcome.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 11:31 AM

14. The question should be: What can WE do as Bernie supporters?

Get involved with the campaign; if you're not involved with a local group yet, go to https://berniesanders.com/

Our Kansas City organization is concentrating on Iowa; we've got a group going up to Des Moines to canvass this weekend.

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Response to LongTomH (Reply #14)

Tue Nov 3, 2015, 07:32 PM

15. That's awesome, Tom!

 

I've joined a couple local groups here in Maine, but they've fizzled out pretty quickly. We're pretty far from New Hampshire so there's less of an incentive to stay active. I wish very much that I could be on the ground in Iowa.

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