I'm going out on a limb

[Proserpina]

I think the primary has been won by Bernie already. And simultaneously and independently lost by Hillary. Bernie could have won all by himself; Hillary could have engineered her defeat singlehandedly (and did). The combination of the two is going to rock the nation. It won't matter who wins the GOP nomination...they could run St. Ronnie and still go down in flames against a Bernie Sanders who commands such a following as Bernie does, a following which will only grow.


I wish I could say I admire the die-hard Clintonistas for their staying power....if they'd been nicer people, I would. But the abuse that they have dished out to the majority of the population of this site doesn't get them any points with me. They deserve everything that's coming to them.

[retrowire]

1. Which is why.....

[img][/img]

[dorkzilla]

5. I love that gif retrowire! nt

[nxylas]

2. Best not to get complacent

Always fight like you're 20 points behind.

[CoffeeCat]

12. That's exactly how we're behaving in Iowa

I got many new assignments today. We're behaving as if we're losing--fighting like hell to find every caucus-goer that will stand for Bernie.

[senz]

25. So true.

Don't let up til the victory's won.

[libdem4life]

7. This is my take, too. Oligarchy is no insignificant concept. On the continuum,

I'd say the US political system is about 80% there. Americans are finding out how dismal their democracy has become. How they don't have a say much any more, especially when a corporation is now a "person".

It will get very ugly, I predict, because those for whom the system is working or think they can bootstrap it if they just try harder, will fight tooth and nail even to admit there is a problem. Because once you cross that Rubicon and acknowledge the problem, you must either deny it or act on it. It will make the Bernie vs. Hillary discussion here look like child's play.

I trust Bernie to help guide us through this newly charted area. It's going to be a ride, for sure.

[lapfog_1]

4. Everyone loves the underdog

but how can you be the underdog if everybody loves you?

always act like the underdog!

[smokey nj]

8. You don't support Bernie. Why are you posting in a group for his supporters?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=901850

[libdem4life]

10. That was a pretty, um, inelegant post. And indeed, what is s/he doing here?

[lapfog_1]

11. hey, if you don't want anyone here that doesn't support Bernie - that's cool

but how do you grow your base?

I don't support Hillary either.

All I was pointing out is that if Bernie wants to continue to make inroads against Clinton, he should ACT like the underdog even if he is ahead of her in the polls.

[cui bono]

18. It's just that that's how DU Groups work.

They are meant to be safe havens where people don't have to hear criticisms of their candidate.

But it does seem that if you learned more about Bernie you would support him since you said you would want Elizabeth Warren or Russ Feingold. Boxer, not so close to Bernie. But saying you'd rather have 8 more years of Obama than Bernie after saying you'd rather have Warren or Feingold doesn't make any sense. So it seems you don't know Bernie's stances. You should check it out here:
https://berniesanders.com/issues/

He's more of a Warren/Feingold than an Obama. By far. Hillary is more of another Obama than Bernie.

.

[Wellstone ruled]

6. Face it,Iowa is a

small state with only four delegates. You have to really pay attention to the big thirteen.

[libdem4life]

9. Yes, but with all of this publicity now, the story is how close Sanders has come, or if he wins...

things will really start to heat up. So four delegates, yes, but it's a state that's important to win that was Hillary's to lose.

We have a political David and Goliath scenario.

[nxylas]

14. And it will be a stake through the heart of the inevitability meme

Especially if he wins New Hampshire as well.

[Wellstone ruled]

19. That will give us a real idea.

Do not want to dis Iowa,it is a caucus and after what the Bachmnan bunch did with their buying votes in a straw poll,got a wait and s,ee. If the numbers are large totals for the Dems,then we have a vote that can't be challenged.

[libdem4life]

24. Couldn't have put it better myself. I just keep thinking about Gomer Pyle from way back

"Surprise, surprise, surprise!" It was a long time ago.

In any case I scour the pages every day because I feel the tipping point may be been reached. Chelsea was not a good decision...and Hillary will have to take the heat for that. I think their Real internal polls are probably a bit more sober than those that make it to the press. And make no mistake, they live and die by those polls.

[Wellstone ruled]

20. Like to see Sanders do a Dean

but make damn sure you do not use a noise canceling microphone.

[Scootaloo]

26. And yet, the candidates always fight like hell for Iowa.

Do they not know that it only has four delegates/ Are they dumb? No, it's that early primary wins generate momentum.

As we are seeing, a substantial portion of Hillary's support comes simply from her being the "presumptive nominee." Lots of people have come out saying that they prefer bernie but think Hillary is more likely to win, so they support her. It's a bit ass-backwards if you ask me, but hey, that's what they're saying.

Iowa and New Hampshire can reverse that. If Sanders shows he can win primaries, a lot of that "I like Bernie, but..." will turn into "I like Bernie!"

I've been telling people since day one that Sanders' campaigns are like a landslide. He starts out slow, and picks up momentum and power as he goes. He is taking absolutely nothing for granted, and puts out the work to make certain he's on solid ground. He's got a relentless, methodical style. it looks awkward to people who operate in a universe of gotcha questions, sound bytes, and clickbait articles about how a candidate is just like your Croatian great-aunt or whatever. But it's effective, as his string of electoral victories attests to.

[senz]

28. I really appreciate your analyses and the way you express them.

Glad you're here, weighing in on all of this, Scootaloo. You could write for publication if you wanted to. Maybe you already do.

[in_cog_ni_to]

13. I've been mulling that over in my mind for a week.

In regard to the HRH pack and how mean, nasty and downright rotten their posts have been ever since Bernie entered the race. I argue with myself over being gracious in victory when Bernie wins because that's what I always preached to my son when he was young...win with grace.

Nope...not happening in this case because none of them deserve it. I've never met a more disingenuous group of people in my life. And that crap wasn't 'just politics ' as usual. It's been nothing but pure, unadulterated hatred for Bernie. So, I plan to freakin' GLOAT. Endlessly.
In this case, I'll be a hypocrite. I don't care.

As for the primary, I think he's won it already too. Clinton can't attack him. It won't work, so she loses...again! What a SWEET, SWEET victory! Not just because we're going to have the greatest president ever since FDR, but because I get to gloat about it on this forum in front of people who loathe him. I can't wait.

Childish? Yes it is and I don't care! Like you said, they deserve everything that's coming to them.
And don't think for one second they wouldn't be doing the same thing if HRH won because they would, only worse.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[senz]

27. Yep.

Been trying to figure out how a group of people can be so unrelentingly nasty. I've noticed that under the broad umbrella of nastiness, there are subgroups. Some can't think beyond personality politics, refuse to discuss issues. Others can't see past gender. Some seem like paid operatives just blasting out anti-Bernie lies, rat a tat tat. Some view it as a team sport, the Dems vs. the Repubs. A few are just plain weird. None can give good reasons for supporting their candidate.

There are very few I'd want to interact with when this is all over.

[nxylas]

29. There's one group that I call the royalists

They are chiefly attracted to Hillary by the perception that she is powerful, and the fact that the entire Democratic Party establishment is in the tank for her is a plus, not a minus. It's like they feel that being in her gang makes them powerful too, hence the air of amused disdain for the "little people" who support other candidates. It's the same "liberal losers" mentality that Rush Limbaugh built his entire career on.

[senz]

30. Yes, yes, I've noticed that too.

It's always a little jarring to see these qualities in people who identify as Democrats, but there it is. It's like they've got Republican souls.

[LiberalElite]

35. They identify with her. nt

[nxylas]

36. Maybe some of them do

There's one in particular (DU rules prevent me from naming him, but I guess most of you will know who I mean) who boasts constantly of his 1% lifestyle and DNC connections. But most of them I think get a vicarious thrill from seeing the strong oppressing the weak. They may be a problem if Bernie wins the nomination. Not because I expect them to stay loyal to Hillary - quite the opposite actually. They will probably transfer their allegiance to the new pack leader, like good little doggies, but bring the same mindset with them. I expect them to become enthusiastic Bernie supporters, but constantly urge him to crush his enemies, see them driven before him, and to hear the lamentation of their women. Which isn't really his style.

[SheilaT]

15. Which primary? New Hampshire?

There are quite a few more to go before anyone nails down the nomination. Not to mention a bunch of caucuses, although I'm being somewhat petty to separate the two.

I sincerely hope Sanders is our next President, but we don't want to be getting ahead of ourselves.

[Proserpina]

34. The whole ball of wax--the Democratic Nomination and the Presidency

[SheilaT]

37. I do think he may well win the nomination,

but unless Hillary drops out entirely after IA and NH, which is highly unlikely, he's not going to win all of the primaries and caucuses. Plus, we do not have a winner take all system, so even if he gets a bit above 50% in the first two, ore even all of the first four, he'll still be splitting delegates with her.

If it is very close all along, in every single primary and caucus (which is quite possible), then the Superdelegates will matter a great deal. well over 300 of them have declared their support for Hillary, 9 for Bernie and 3 for O'Malley. More than half -- our of a total of 794 -- are still uncommitted. This is all according to Wikipedia, by the way.

It's looking more and more doubtful that Hillary will coast to the nomination, but neither will Bernie. As someone else in this thread has pointed out, we need to campaign as if your candidate is 20 points behind.

[mhatrw]

17. Hillary skillfull crafted herself into the perfect Presidential candidate

for the year 2000.

Too bad for her and her corporate establishment supporters that it is 2016.

[Betty Karlson]

21. Your post was alerted on. Jury results posted here

As I was the only juror to add an explanation, I'll consider myself the jury foreman and read out the verdict:

On Wed Jan 13, 2016, 04:59 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

I'm going out on a limb
http://www.democraticunderground.com/128096191

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

disruptive meta

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Jan 13, 2016, 05:14 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Not meta. The post pertains to Sanders' probability of winning the primaries. The author adds a remark about those still supporting Clinton, and explains why she won't outright compliment them. That is not meta.

The alert, however, is the now way too familiar alert-stalking of posters perceived as expressing viewpoints that are unwelcome to the alerter. Learn to debate, pal: refute the argument instead of asking me to suppress it.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[Proserpina]

22. Thank you for your support, and the courtesy of posting the results, Betty

Had to dig pretty deep to find a reason to alert, didn't they? Meta, shmeta. It's a protected group, for pity's sake!

[cantbeserious]

23. Thank You For Sharing

eom

[eridani]

31. Don't agree. That is up to how much voter contact we get done. n/t

[Proserpina]

32. That's part of the calculation

Bernie will keep doing what Bernie is doing, Hillary will keep doing what Hillary is doing, Bernie's supporters will keep feeling the Bern while Hillary's keep decompensating, and the rest will be history.

[Duckfan]

33. As much as I hate 1-sided football games where one team is

...blown out by the end of first half, I really would like to see a blowout situation here. A runaway by Bernie? Might not happen but it would be beautiful to see. Not so much for Hillary, but for Bill. He's the one who screwed us with SHAFTA and the banking deregulation's. And the Communications Act of 96 which gave us corporate hate-radio and television.

The independent voter is the one who is going to support Bernie and help win the nomination. And I say Amen for the independent voter.