Call me superstitious: I believe no one who voted for the Iraq war will ever be president.

[redgreenandblue]

For this reason I believe that of all candidates, Joe Biden is the most likely to lose to Trump.

And no, I don't have any quantitative information to back that up.

[watoos]

1. WTH?

Only 1 Democrat in the House of Representatives voted against the AUMF, Barbara Lee. That doesn't leave many Democrats to choose from.

Does your theory also apply to Republicans?

[mahina]

34. Our Hawaii contingent voted against. Send Akaka, Inouye and Rep Abercrombie.

Ed Case wasn’t in office yet. Peace to Patsy Mink who would have too if she could.

[Hortensis]

37. Good info. More: 73% of Americans supported in 2003,

R 93%, I 66% and D 59%.

This in spite of every couple weeks or so another retired top general, cabinet secretary, diplomat, intelligence chief, etc., etc., coming out publicly against it and explaining why. Almost all made the evening news because of their stature. I thought of them as the parade of the retireds, and it was clear almost immediately that the weapons of mass distraction story was almost certainly a lie, and for sure before we actually invaded.

Far fewer now admit they supported it than actually did, but most remember how they felt then and feel the normal human need to justify themselves, part of maintaining emotional health.

Those who were adult then also vote in much higher numbers than younger people who inherited all the usual faults but don’t know it. But most older ones do know it.

[rzemanfl]

2. I blame myself for Drumpf. If I hadn't broken that

mirror....

[highplainsdem]

4. LOL! And I lost my lucky rabbit's foot in Oct. 2016, and walked under a ladder looking for it.

[rzemanfl]

8. You're lucky to have lived through that!!!!! n/t

[spooky3]

3. I disagree. Many people of voting age are not old enough even to remember that vote.

And obviously this segment will increase going forward.

There are many more issues of current interest.

[loyalsister]

20. And many of those young people

lost family friends and or siblings to it in one way or another. They are also profoundly affected by the money that was dedicated to it and is not available for healthcare, infrastructure, climate change initiatives and the NRA power derived from the glorification of war and weaponry.

[spooky3]

26. Have you seen any evidence anywhere that suggests that

This is the most important issue to them and that the Democrats rather than the lying Republicans were responsible?

[loyalsister]

30. Whether or not they remember the vote

Their opinions on it matter a great deal when their generation has been paying the price again and again with endless military engagement in the ME. They continue to pay with their lives and with the deficits used as excuses for ongoing lack of government investment in healthcare, infrastructure, initiatives to address climate change.
I don't know how much of a priority it is for them, but they have sacrificed a great deal and the fact that they view a world with less opportunity than their predecessors has everything to do with the Iraq war.

[NYMinute]

5. Nice try nt

[BannonsLiver]

18. It's a new form of concern apparently

The back door “superstitious” play. Very resourceful.

[NYMinute]

21. I can't wait for Voodoo and Santeria concerns nt

[Kaleva]

6. It's not even an issue with the vast majority of voters.

[Glorfindel]

7. You could be right. Three Vietnam War veterans ran for president

as the nominee of one of the major parties. All three were defeated.

[rampartc]

35. it now seems certain that no vietnam veteran will ever be president

mccain, gore, and kerry were the vietnam vets who were nominated but did not win. un every case their service was belittled and ridiculed by the draft dodgers of the republican party.

"i prefer heros who don't get captured" trump (standing ovation from his crowd of patriots.)

[democrank]

9. The Iraq War vote is no laughing matter, nothing to joke about.

Visit a VA hospital and see how many vets are laughing about it.

[rampartc]

32. +1

i consider the dems who voted for the "authorization to use force" to be unfit for any elective office. hundreds of them were voted out of officem a loss that we are only now beginning to repair.

i realize that the democrats are not an "anti war" party, but in a 2 party system they are the closest thing we have. maybe there is a reason to vote for some war, but "the repubs will say we are wimps if we don't" is not one of them. hell, the repubs will say we are wimps no matter what we do. we can prove we are not by standing up and saying "no."

sorry crank, i guess i just used this space to collect my thoughts. war is a last resort, not the first thing to do because "we don't negotiate with terrorists."

[AlexSFCA]

10. this is the only issue that can sink Biden, IMO

Clinton lost to Obama in 2008 primary because of it. BS is capitalizing on this doing GOP bidding. No doubt gop is prepared to bring this issue front and center if biden wins the nomination. They didn’t do it to Hillary cause they found consiparies were more effective. But with Biden, this one of the very few things they got on him as there wasnt decades long smear campaign against him. I hope dems are prepared and have a plan how to handle it.

[marylandblue]

12. They did use Hillary's Iraq vote against her, along will a lot of other things.

They will do it Biden too.

[delisen]

15. I don't think the IWR was ever a deciding factor

We could of course just only vote for people who never served in Congress and/or dared to be present for big issue votes; only field candidates who have shot experience in national politics.

I don't think it is a good idea to do so.

[BannonsLiver]

19. It could if people were thinking about it.

But I’m not seeing a very compelling case the Iraq war will be the decisive factor in the 2020 presidential election. What evidence is there that this issue will suddenly return to prominence and be at the center of the next election as it was in 2004? Let’s hear it.

[Kaleva]

23. Do you have any evidence that supports your assertion?

Your claim:

"Clinton lost to Obama in 2008 primary because of it."

A link to an analysis by Newsweek Staff:

"Five Reasons Obama Won and Five Why Clinton Lost"[link:https://www.newsweek.com/five-reasons-obama-won-and-five-why-clinton-lost-90637|

[StevieM]

31. Although it wasn't your intention, this article does a good job of showing what Hillary

was up against in 2016.

The incredible desire by people in the media to label her "entitled" and "arrogant." They always found new and innovative reasons to make that proclamation. There was nothing she could have done to avoid it.

[treestar]

29. The GOP was all for war in Iraq

How could it benefit them?

[JI7]

11. Hillary actually won and it was stolen. most people also blame Bush

for the war in Iraq. which would have happened regardless of anything Congress voted on.

the way to stop the war was to support the Democrat running for president.

but some people think their personal feelings of purity are more imporant than actual policy decisions.

[yaesu]

13. The vast majority of Dems voted to give the president the power to wage war, which he did

and the cost of that decision in treasure & bodies has been quite overwhelming & is still adding up. Officially, they did not vote for the war, but that vote made in possible for Bush to wage war. I don't think its a disqualifier for anyone wanting to run imho.

[JI7]

14. you left out W Bush in 2004

or does that not count

[crazytown]

22. !

[left-of-center2012]

16. Iraq War is ancient history to many

People are focused on the "now" and "future".

[themaguffin]

17. Iraq is done. Beating trump is the ONLY issue

[LanternWaste]

24. I believe 2+27; and no, I don't have any quantitative information to back that up.

[R B Garr]

25. There would be no Iraq war except for the purity standards

about Gore from the Naderites/ Sarandonites. I think most people see that. No 9/11 either.

[treestar]

27. How would they have voted?

If they were not in Congress 16 years ago, how can you apply your litmus test?

[Ponietz]

28. No need for superstition, BUT

The U.S. has not atoned for that war. Its wound continues to fester and rot.

[peggysue2]

33. The last thing the country needs is . . .

more superstitions. Please, stop!

[McCamy Taylor]

36. This post has me convinced that Trump/Putin are really afraid of Biden.

[Hortensis]

38. Red, try to put yourselves in the minds of other voters.

I believe you overestimate social responsibility and ability to care about deaths far away, and underestimate people's need to tweak their views of their own actions to support their self images. Remember the stats for those who supported that war, overall strong majority.

Right now the Trump administration has involved our nation in enormous atrocities in Yemen, actively supporting genocide. In future when Yemen comes to mind, my guess is you will not remember yourself as far more emotionally involved in partisan politics, in this case condemning a Democratic candidate you didn't like, than that 60,000 people, including large numbers of children, had already died, and more were dying every day.

If all those outraged at our actions in Iraq, which 93% of Republicans supported, had voted Democrat just 2-1/2 years ago, our role in the Yemeni genicide wouldn't be happening, but don't bother scouring social media for mea culpas. All you'll find are justifications. And that's why your surmise is wrong.