Democratic Candidates Are Preparing For A Contested Convention -- By Courting Superdelegates

[madville]

Back in February, on a trip to Washington, DC, Cory Booker made time to meet privately with Democratic National Committee members from Georgia — a small but influential group of party officials who, until last year, held key superdelegate votes in the presidential nominating process.

Before he got in the race last week, Joe Biden’s campaign manager, Greg Schultz, met with a similar constituency: chiefs of staff to Democratic members of the House of Representatives.

On the campaign trail, Kamala Harris makes it a point to check in on superdelegates wherever she goes, tasking a senior adviser to keep tabs on all 769 in a carefully monitored spreadsheet.

And after helping to strip superdelegates of a significant portion of their power after his first presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders officials are planning to take “superdelegates strategy seriously,” they say, with an outreach program designed to “prepare for multiple convention scenarios” — even as the candidate continues to bemoan superdelegates at his rallies.


https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rubycramer/superdelegates-2020-convention-democrats

[Gothmog]

1. I am glad that super delegates may play a role in this contest

[murielm99]

2. You beat me to it. n/t

[madville]

3. Probably benefits Biden the most

Many are going to break for him if needed. Probably worst news for Bernie.

[customerserviceguy]

5. It could go badly for us, too

Nightmare scenario is where Bernie has more delegates than anybody, but not enough for a first ballot. Then, the supers make Biden (or another also-ran) the nominee, and the Bernie-bots find a new Jill Stein.

[Gothmog]

9. There are far fewer caucuses this cycle

I really doubt that sanders will get that many delegates under these rules

[George II]

10. Fewer caucuses and fewer open primaries - both of Sanders' strengths.

[Gothmog]

35. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

?

[customerserviceguy]

12. It depends

If Biden falters, then support doesn't bleed from him to Sanders, it goes to other candidates in Joe's "lane". On the other hand, if Warren comes in fourth place or worse in New Hampshire, some of her support may be picked up by Sanders, while some will go to other female candidates in the race.

I'm not precisely sure how the delegates will be apportioned following a primary, but if I recall correctly, a candidate has to get a certain percentage of the vote to be awarded a proportional share of delegates. This would be to the benefit of the leading candidates in the race. And with each of the non-Biden, non-Bernie candidates being strong in some areas and weak in others, we may see a scatter-gun effect, keeping candidacies alive long after they would be finished under rules and conditions from prior years.

With the ability to raise money through the Internet, and lessened dependence on big donors who know when to pull the plug on a campaign, we might see a number of zombie candidates trying to hang on till the convention, hoping to be a compromise nominee after the umpteenth ballot.

[Celerity]

13. some interesting numbers on '2nd choices'

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about who they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next. Hover over or click cards to see more.

BIDEN SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
33%
Kamala Harris
12%
Elizabeth Warren
10%

SANDERS SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
36%
Elizabeth Warren
19%
Kamala Harris
7%


WARREN SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Bernie Sanders
24%
Joe Biden
21%
Kamala Harris
18%

BUTTIGIEG SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
25%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Kamala Harris
15%

HARRIS SUPPORTERS
Second Choice Selections
Joe Biden
21%
Elizabeth Warren
16%
Bernie Sanders
13%


Biden looks very strong, and I am shocked that so many Bernie voters would slide over to him, that spells doom (if it holds up) for the other candidates. It puts Joe at damn near 50% with just his first line and then Bernie's secondary votes. Add in Pete and Kamala's second choice votes and it puts Biden near a lock, maybe even first ballot if he really racks up some huge wins (not many winner take all primaries makes that really hard though, in such a huge field).

[customerserviceguy]

14. Interesting numbers, to be sure

I expect Pete Buttigieg to continue to rise in the polls, especially after the first round of debates. Whether or not he has a ceiling remains to be seen. It is possible that we get to Pete and Bernie as the two front runners going into the caucuses and primaries, but Biden would have to falter for that to happen.

We have seen an awful lot of front runners eighteen months out slip and fall.

[Demsrule86]

16. 24 % of her supporters go to Sanders. But 21% to Biden so it is a wash.

[customerserviceguy]

19. At this point

yes, you're right. But after her voters hear enough of "Joe screwed you back when he was the Senator from Delaware," from Sen. Warren, maybe their minds will change about their second choice.

I'm of the belief that it is psychologically easier to change a second choice than it is to change the first choice.

[Demsrule86]

23. I don't think it will matter. They know this...been a feud for years

[Demsrule86]

17. If Bernie has more delegates he wins. That is what supers do.

[customerserviceguy]

20. Maybe

Maybe not. Under my nightmare scenario, Bernie doesn't have enough for a first ballot victory, but someone else has enough for a second ballot win if the supers are persuaded that it would be a better choice to win the general. Winning the general, that's what supers really want to do.

[Demsrule86]

21. Supers can't put a candidate over on a 1st ballot but can put the winning candidate

Over on a second ballot...talking if threshold isn't met. Really we need to consider winner take all primaries.

[customerserviceguy]

23. Perhaps

That's how Trump secured his nomination. But, it is probably too late to change the rules for next year.

[Demsrule86]

33. True, I mean going forward.

[Demsrule86]

34. There are still enough supers to fix this.

[George II]

11. Super delegates are for the most part lifelong Democrats who have spent years, if not....

....decades working with and for the Democratic Party. I can't see too many of them voting for any candidate other than a lifelong Democrat.

[Me.]

4. Bye Bye Bernie

despite the oh so familiar hypocrisy.

[Hortensis]

6. Superdelegates are all people of power and influence outside of

their almost-never-in-play superdelegate role. All candidates woo them, from ones who are old friends to others not previously met. Of course, most of our candidates, those who are governors, members of congress, or people otherwise of stature in the party, are superdelegates themselves.

This convention would be different if the first round failed to produce a nominee, but relationships formed for other purposes would have already been formed anyway.

[Demsrule86]

32. The supers always put the winner over the top in the first ballot before now. So because some

Candidates think they can get the supers to support them instead of the winner, it goes to the second ballot. But those same supers will still put the winner over the top ...only on the second ballot. I don't like it personally.

[Ace Rothstein]

7. Whoever ends up with the most delegates from actual votes needs to be the nominee.

Otherwise we lose in 2020.

[madville]

8. No way the supers vote Bernie in even if he is leading

There's no nomination path for him except to win a majority of delegates and take it in the first round.

[customerserviceguy]

18. What if we're down to only four or five candidates

with Bernie being in the clear lead, and the other three or four having roughly equal numbers of delegates? As female candidates drop out, their supporters may well gravitate to the remaining ones. What if Joe Biden doesn't handle the debates well? He's never been successful with this format when facing multiple candidates.

What if Pete Buttigieg continues his surge? And Kamala Harris takes African-American support from Biden if he stumbles on some racial gaffe, much like his "you have to have an Indian accent to go into a 7-11 or Dunkin' Donuts" remark?

There's a lot left to happen between now and the convention.

[NYMinute]

26. ...

[Demsrule86]

31. That is correct. And that is what will happen.

[Demsrule86]

15. Waste of time supers vote with the primary winner as they should.

[PupCamo]

27. why?

[Demsrule86]

28. The voters in the primary pick the winner based on delegates ...just because you don't

Make the magic number doesn't mean someone is not substantially ahead. That person should get the win period. And all supers vote with this person or you lose the general.

[PupCamo]

37. could you claifiy what you're saying

because I have no clue what you mean

[boston bean]

22. Exactly what I was afraid of. People holding on for a second vote. Damn the super delegates may have

Way more power than they did before.

This is a truly likely scenario with so many running.

[Demsrule86]

29. There won't be that many... I think maybe three with one substantially leading the others.

The money will run out for the others. I would prefer winner take all primaries. Brokered conventions means a loss in the general.

[NYMinute]

25. Superdelegates have the political savvy

They are an important part of the process.

[Demsrule86]

30. They have never done anything but elevate the primary winner.

[Gothmog]

36. This makes me smile

Link to tweet