According to a Oct. 2007 Gallup article, Hillary had a 30 point lead over Obama

[Kaleva]

"Clinton’s lead over Obama has expanded to nearly 30 points in Gallup’s latest poll, conducted Oct. 12-14: 50% vs. 21%."

https://news.gallup.com/poll/102277/Gallup-Election-Review-October-2007.aspx

I'm not trying to refight earlier primaries but just want to remind people that polls at this stage of a primary are rather meaningless and can not be used to determine who the nominee will be.

I was a member of the Dean campaign forum back in 2004 and well remember how the confidence and enthusiasm turned into anger, frustration and finger pointing.

It's anybody's game right now and one needs to fight hard for the the candidate they support regardless of what the current polling says.

[TwilightZone]

1. 2007 didn't have Trump.

While I agree that caution is in order and it's very early, I think that it's also possible that Democrats, in general, might be looking for someone to rally behind early who they perceive can beat Trump as a primary factor. If that's the case, Biden may build a large lead, keep it, and we may end up with a fairly uneventful primary process.

That being said, anything can happen. Any use of history or normalcy as a template went out the window with Trump.

[pnwmom]

8. It's equally possible that Biden and Sanders simply have the most name recognition.

But the rest of them will have a chance to make their mark during the primary debates.

[TwilightZone]

11. Certainly.

Which could be bad news for Sanders. If recent polls are any indication, much of his early support has already switched to other candidates and pretty much everyone on our side of the aisle already knows him and his positions, so his chances of getting new support or getting some of that support back could be slim.

For pretty much everyone else other than Biden (and, perhaps, Warren), the debates will be the first extended look that many people will get of them.

[pnwmom]

19. I agree. Sanders has already hit peak-Sanders. It's all downhill from here. n/t

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

31. Or, the 2020 primary process may be a repeat of 2008 primary process... Joe & Hillary lost

that primary for a very good reason... Obama was just too powerful of a political force.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[BlueWI]

33. Was Bush any better than Trump?

It may seem in hindsight that Bush was better, but 7 years of war, Dick Cheney, and the Great Recession were no joke. And in the end, voters determined that Obama was the best way forward.

We have multiple strong candidates and the primary season can gain exposure for current and future elections, not to mention building support for better legislation.

[customerserviceguy]

42. And, 2007

didn't have an incumbent president running for re-election, either.

But, the OP's point about front-runners some eighteen months before an election is well made, as is your point about the Trump candidacy/presidency tossing everything out the window.

[elleng]

2. Zacly,

polls at this stage of a primary are rather meaningless.

[NYMinute]

3. Bernie ain't Obama nt

[still_one]

5. +++++++++++++++++++

[Cha]

12. Excellent point!

[JI7]

21. but Beto is according to Obama

I think they are different in style but similar in appeal to others.

[Butterflylady]

28. And these are different times.

We've never experienced anything like the orange moron.

[treestar]

30. +1

The "rules of thumb" just don't apply now.

[treestar]

29. +1

Not happening.

[StevieM]

4. It should be remembered that she did not start the race of a lead of that size.

At the beginning of the race it was more like 35-20 for Clinton over Obama.

She went out on the campaign trail in 2007 and built that lead up.

After Obama started surging the media rewrote history and acted like she inherited a historic lead, simply because she was Bill Clinton's wife, and shockingly managed to lose it, since as Bill Clinton's wife it should have been a slam dunk for her to keep it.

The sexism she faced in both 2008 and 2016 was unbelievable.

[marylandblue]

15. Obama cultivated the media. He schmoozed them. He gave them good soundbites.

Hillary was never good at those things.

Remember that reporters were ordinary humans before they became mediators of taste and influence. They are no less vulnerable to charm and good storytelling than the rest of us. In fact, they are probably more vulnerable to such things because so many people vie for their attention.

[Kaleva]

18. Hillary was savaged in forums like DKos

[MineralMan]

6. Yabbut, everyone knows Bernie already.

The didn't know Obama yet back then.

[Cha]

13. Precisely! Too well.

[Kaleva]

14. People don't know Harris, Warren, Mayor Pete and the others yet either

[tonedevil]

22. Senator Sanders...

is not the only candidate in the Democratic primary. Other than in his own mind I would suggest he isn't even that significant a candidate at this point. He sure gets VP Biden supporters to howl like dogs hit with a sling shot though.

[ms liberty]

26. That's a colorful and apt metaphor there, and could apply to more than Biden supporters. n/t

[tonedevil]

40. In my observation...

Biden supporters are quick to point out Sanders flaws as a response to flaws being pointed out about Biden. I certainly wouldn't say this is unique to Biden supporters they just seem the most sensitive at this time. I'm sure that will change. I will vote for the Democratic candidate without hesitation, but I prefer that neither Biden nor Sanders become that candidate.

[R B Garr]

32. Sanders earned his position with "Biden supporters" long

before Biden came along. He did that to himself.

BTW, Biden supporters = Democrats.

[Demsrule86]

36. I have admitted that...I will never forgive Sanders for the 2016 general where he told us Hillary

had to get Sanders primary voters herself...not his job. And his weak support-.my opinion- of her in the general. And now we have Trump trampling the rule of law, spitting on the constitution...caging babies. Sanders has folks in his campaign...high places who voted for Jill Stein.

[R B Garr]

37. I totally agree with everything you said.

It’s the reason we have Trump.

What’s more bizarre about the comment I responded to is that it’s more the other way around—Sanders’ supporters have Biden under their skin. He’s the one dominating in the polls since he entered. I’m so tired of the opposite world.

[Demsrule86]

39. I am too...and none of the candidates have gone after Sanders. So he remains unvetted. The GOP

are licking their lips at the trouncing we would take if he is the candidate.

[tonedevil]

41. I understand that animosity...

to Sanders is pervasive beyond Biden supporters, but the contest for Democratic nomination isn't just a choice between Biden and Sanders. Which is why I find it amusing that when someone expresses doubt about the Biden candidacy his supporters find a reason he is better than Sanders. For my part I hope neither one of them gets the nomination.

[R B Garr]

44. Do you? Biden is ahead in the polls which explains what you are seeing. It is very much a repeat of

the tactics used before. It's very recognizable. Biden is ahead in the polls and is the current threat. He is by no means their only target, though. It was actually your comment that made it Biden vs. Sanders. This was going on way before Biden got in the race this year.

[tonedevil]

45. OK /nt

[MarcA]

7. The Summer Democratic Debates should prove informative and interesting. n/t

[Kaleva]

16. I think the debates will be very important. Today's polls, not so much.

[Peacetrain]

9. ...but I am going to enjoy today to the max!!!!!

[Kaleva]

17. And you ought to!

[Kahuna7]

10. Obama oozed charisma and his voice is hypnotic. nt

[Kaleva]

20. We should also remember that in 2003, it looked like Dean was going to win the nomination

[Blue_true]

23. You overlooked one very important factor.

In 2007, African American voters were not totally sold on Hillary and in the end that came into play big. The flip seems to be the case with Biden, AA voters seem to be moving solidly for him. I think that Joe would have to make a major, major gaffe to lose ground.

I believe that AA voters are the most astute voters in the country. They seem to correctly analyze their best interests and vote that way. Issues like what Senator Warren is hitting Biden with don't seem to be high on priorities for AA voters, she may peel off some of Joe's liberal White voters. Bernie could make a dent with his crime bill parry at Joe, but AA voters would want to know what Bernie plans to do and so far his policy proposals in that area have been thin, the root of every policy isn't income inequality, a racist police officer will bust a very rich Black kid at the first chance for having a joint in his or her possession, while letting a far less well off White kid go free for the same violation (by most states' laws).

[Kaleva]

24. This article from 2007 says otherwise

" Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama, her chief rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, is growing among African-American voters who are registered Democrats, and particularly among black women, a poll said Wednesday.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is the top choice of African-American Democrats, a new poll suggests.

Among black registered Democrats overall, Clinton had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead over Obama."

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/

[Cha]

25. That's the way I remember it..

and then when they saw Obama won Iowa they realized he could do this.. and many went for him.

[Kaleva]

27. The black vote shifted to Obama when they saw that he was a legitimate contender

In our current primary, everything is fluid and there's a chance for a number of the candidates. I'm really looking forward to the upcoming debates!

[Blue_true]

43. That is what I remember Cha.

He also did better than expected in New Hampshire. By the time the race turned to the South, Hillary was all but finished for all intents and purposes.

It is possible that Biden holds and grows the AA vote, but if someone like Harris matches him early on or come close, he has problems. I really don't think that Booker can pull in much changing AA primary vote, but Harris and Warren can if they catch fire early on.

[Demsrule86]

35. Sanders voted for the crime bill and ran on it as late as 2006 so I don't think that will work.

[Demsrule86]

34. Obama was a once in a a lifetime candidate running for an open seat which makes a difference.

In my opinion, In such elections, voters are more willing to take a chance. Also what everyone forgets about 2008 is that Florida and Michigan were punished and their primary votes did not count. We also had a country melting down with an economic debacle, two unpopular wars and a very unpopular president. I think Biden will be the nominee despite Sander's petty attacks.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

38. At this early stage, name recognition is a major factor.

As other candidates become better-known some of them will start pulling ahead - like Pete Buttigieg has been doing. But with such a crowded field it might be difficult to be the one people remember (which is why name recognition might count for more this time).