The only way Joe Biden falters

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The only way Joe Biden falters is if Democratic primary voters decide he doesn't have the best chance of deposing the cretin who currently occupies the White House.

Everything else is commentary...

[redstateblues]

1. Presently more voters every day think Joe is that person.

The question is can Bernie et al gain ground by going negative.

[ananda]

4. Joe is that person!

He's even leading MF45 here in Texas !!!

[titaniumsalute]

22. MF45...LOL. Now that is funny.

[Sugarcoated]

64. Really??

How can that be?

[comradebillyboy]

54. I hope Bernie doesn't get away with the kind of campaign

he ran against Hillary in this cycle. He can't win this time either but he can't let go of a lost cause or any perceived personal grievance.

[Ron Green]

2. ...or if Democratic primary voters decide it's time to reject not only Trump but

also the conditions that brought him to the White House.

[TwilightZone]

8. Racism, fear, ignorance and bigotry?

What do those have to do with Biden?

[Demsrule86]

10. That is an attack on Obama who did not such thing.

[Cha]

59. BullFeathers.

[doompatrol39]

3. Or if they look closer at his record...

...and decide that they'd rather someone who has led on some of the major issues of our time and specifically ones very close and important the core demographic members of our party rather than a nice guy who has had to "evolve" on some major issues when it's convenient.

Or they remember that putting a premium on bipartisanship and being nice and cordial to our "friends across the aisle" is part of what allowed the rise of Trumpism.

Or they remember that experienced, moderate centrism didn't win the election in 2016, but bold progressive vision did in 2008.

If discussion, debate, and analysis are allowed on a major scale within the party (and to a lesser degree on here) without people calling accurate quotes and voting records "smears", I don't think Joe is going to fare as well as he is now riding the wave of name recognition. Maybe I'm wrong.

[saidsimplesimon]

7. Maybe we are both wrong doom.

There is nothing bi-partisan about surrendering our values or parroting Republican extremists.

Or they remember that putting a premium on bipartisanship and being nice and cordial to our "friends across the aisle" is part of what allowed the rise of Trumpism.

Or they remember that experienced, moderate centrism didn't win the election in 2016, but bold progressive vision did in 2008.

[LakeArenal]

53. Actually we did win in 2016.

[Demsrule86]

11. Sanders attacks aren't working. We need time win. Biden can win.

[doompatrol39]

20. So our only options are the two old white guys?

Interesting? I see a lot of great candidates who don't fit that bill.

[Demsrule86]

43. No one older guy ...Biden.

[doompatrol39]

47. You are the one who referenced Sanders

The other old white guy in the race. I find it interesting that is who most of the Biden Boosters seem to think is his only competition.

[calimary]

29. Good.

[DownriverDem]

14. How far back

do you want to go when we need a candidate that can beat trump? It's a known fact that when a candidate goes negative, that means they are losing. Biden/Harris would be an excellent ticket. Once we get rid of the repubs, we can move to more progressive ideas. Other wise progressive ideas won't see the light of day.

[doompatrol39]

21. And why exactly would Harris not make a great candidate on her own?

I mean I know what's actually meant with all this Biden can win in (wherever) but I'm curious if anyone is eventually just going to come out and ay it.. And I find the "Oh Harris/Warren/etc. would make great running mates!" to be ridiculously patronizing and condescending.

Biden would be our McCain or Romney. Someone who lost multiple primaries because voters either didn't find them compelling, or because they were problematic but who the party eventually said "Yeah, sure why not." or "It's their time" or whatever else.

The idea that Biden is going to motivate the various Demographic groups that we need to be motivated and do all the hard and difficult work come 2020 is ridiculously naive.

Or are you counting on those moderate, Trump voting white working class rust belt voters that people are convinced he will win going to stuff envelopes, canvas, phone bank, get out the vote, etc.?

[Merlot]

23. Thank you.

Democrats win when they pick a "Fresh" candidate: Obama, Bill Clinton, Carter.

They loose on the "been around forever" candidate: Hillary Clinton, Kerry, Gore.

Biden would be our McCain or Romney. Someone who lost multiple primaries because voters either didn't find them compelling, or because they were problematic but who the party eventually said "Yeah, sure why not." or "It's their time" or whatever else.

It's early, I'm waiting for the debates.

[Funtatlaguy]

36. In normal times, you are exactly right. The best thing Biden

has going for him is the country right now wants a return to normalcy.
Therefore, this time, a familiar face might work.

But, who knows. It’s waaay too early. The debates will tell us a lot.

[athena]

44. Anyone would be "a return to normalcy" after Trump.

The fact that Biden is "normal" compared to Trump is not an argument against the other Democrats in the race.

[athena]

45. This is an excellent point.

Democrats win when they pick a "Fresh" candidate: Obama, Bill Clinton, Carter.

They loose on the "been around forever" candidate: Hillary Clinton, Kerry, Gore.

Democrats, by definition, are about progress and change. If we learned this lesson, we would do well in future elections.

We have so many excellent candidates running. If we were like the Republicans and had no one else, I would understand being for Biden, but given how many exciting candidates we have (Warren, Harris, Booker, Inslee, O'Rourke, Buttigieg, any one of whom would make an excellent president), it makes no sense to settle on Biden this early in the game.

[athena]

46. Total agreement.

And I find the "Oh Harris/Warren/etc. would make great running mates!" to be ridiculously patronizing and condescending.

Anyone who thinks women are going to be excited at this point by a female VP clearly has a very low opinion of women. They must really believe that we think with our vaginas, that we will see a female name on the ticket and be mollified. The VP's position is an almost completely powerless one. In the extremely unlikely scenario in which a male president died and a woman became president, she would have very little power. As someone who was not directly elected to the presidency, she would not have a mandate. But we women are such inferior creatures that we couldn't possibly realize any of this.

[emulatorloo]

37. No offense, but sounds like a bunch of spin and half truths from Reddit and the twitterverse.

Biden’s done a lot of positive things and he’s a good debater. Seriously doubt he is going to be humiliated on the debate stage, nor be “destroyed” with scorched earth candidates who don’t have many accomplishments of their own. As to the best candidates, I expect we’ll see some kind of alliance between them and Biden before all this is over.

[doompatrol39]

48. So his voting record and speeches are spin and half truth?

Or the fact that he failed to generate any enthusiasm for his previous presidential runs?

Nobody said anything about his debating or humiliation. I'm sure he'll pull his usual "Aw shucks, it's your Uncle Joe. No biggie." routine and do just fine in the debates.

[emulatorloo]

49. Biden didn't generate enthusiasm in 2008. Biden's generating enthusiasm in 2019 though

So the “enthusiasm” metric is irrelevant. It is 2019 now, 2008 is irrelevant. I don’t know what the pundits are thinking when they bring something like that up?!?

As to voting records, All our candidates have voting records.

There is a lot of good in all of their voting records, including in Joe Biden’s.

There are questionable things too in all our candidates records. That what happens when you are in public office.

So with any Dem candidates:

I can cherrypick votes and pull them out of context or spin them in perhaps unfair negative ways.

I have to wonder though:

- Is tearing down Democrats really what I should be doing in 2019 and 2020?

- Should I be part of the “hit squad” determined to character assasinate our excellent Democratic candidates?

- The one who provides talking points to Trump for the general election?

No that’s just not my role. My role is to destroy Trump and his cronies and take back the White House and Congress.

Of course your mileage may vary. I don’t expect everyone to agree with me, I just want us all to be united, rally round, and be enthusiastically supportive of whoever our GE candidate is come Election Day. We need to elect Democrats this time. We did it in the midterms. We can do it again.

[doompatrol39]

51. Biden also didn't generate enthusiasm in previous runs to 2008.

It wasn't just once that he's gone before Democratic voters and had them say "Yeah....hard pass." It was multiple times

And what he's generating now isn't enthusiasm except among people who think the response to 2016 is to retreat even further into the past and into the safe zone with zero risk.

Biden has been on the wrong side of a lot of key points in our history, even as recent as this century. I'm not sure why that's considered smearing to point that out?

Joe and the Biden Boosters want him to just be able to coast on charm and perceived good will from the Obama years. I've heard nothing with regard to policy I've heard nothing in regard to concrete plans, I've heard nothing with regard to actual election strategy. It's just "Hey, it's Joe! He's a safe old white guy."

And again, I find it telling that every criticism of Biden is attributed to Sanders or Sanders supporters (I am not one of them) as though the 2 old white guys are the only ones who could possibly be in it. Oh, I'm sorry I'm forgetting all the posts that are so magnanimous as to point out how great it would be to have a woman or person of color as Biden's running mate.

Yes, I"m going to vote for whoever the nominee is. But I want someone who represents the future in some way, not someone whose primary appeal is that he may or may not scare off racist misogynists in the swing states. I want someone who will push back and fight and not just go "Hey, it's me Uncle Joe. Your friend from across the aisle! Let's go have a beer!" and that will require someone who has been through a good primary fight.

[emulatorloo]

63. Your obsession about "past lack of enthusiasm" is still irrelevant. Please be positive and post

about your candidate of choice. You seem like a very good person, and I bet you could very eloquently advocate about your candidate of choice if you choose to do so.

As you know many DU’ers are currently undecided and would like to hear more about why we should support your candidate.

OTOH Your over-the-top scorched earth campaigning against Biden may very well have the opposite effect you are intending.

Your apparent viscousness doesn’t sound credible to people who know Biden and his tenure in the Obama administration. People aren’t in the mood for these tactics now.

It is making me for one consider Biden even more

Of course YMMV. But it just makes since that if you want others to support your candidate, promote your candidate positively and refrain from trying to ‘destroy’ other Democrats.

[doompatrol39]

66. I haven't decided on a candidate yet...

...I will support the eventual nominee. I just legitimately think Biden is a bad choice for multiple reasons and I don't think it's "scorched earth" to point that out, especially since most of his boosters are not actually offering any counter to these points, and more importantly aren't offering any specific policy proposals of his, and are just insisting we all let him coast to the nomination on good vibes, memories, "old white guy" appeal.

I'm not sure why pointing out indisputable facts (Biden ran multiple times before and didn't win, his numerous very bad votes) is smearing. I don't particularly care for Beto, either but 1) He is at least offering up some solid proposals, even if some of them I disagree with, and 2) Nobody is insisting that we say nothing bad about him.

"It is making me for one consider Biden even more"

Hmm...that sounds very familiar to another politician's supporters.

[Cha]

60. The "pundits" are showing off

that they can't grasp why Biden's 2008 run would be a galaxy apart from 2019, after he had 8 successful years as Vice President of the United States, with President Barack Obama.

The "pundits" like to manipulate and manufacture their own little vapid scenarios that aren't worth a hill o beans.

[marylandblue]

65. High expectations for Biden may hurt him.

He is a good debater, but he'll be sharing the stage with a lot of other good debaters. If he doesn't outshine all of them, he might not seem so electable.

[doompatrol39]

67. I think more specifically with regard to the debates...

...is that his easygoing "Hey man, it's me Uncle Joe." routine is going to seem very tone deaf in the face of the existential threats we are facing and also for the degree to which we are going to need off the charts engagement and excitement from young people, minorities, women, LGBT voters, etc. And if he handles any questions of his past voting record and support (pro NAFTA, pro-Iraq War, Pro Patriot Act, Pro crime bill, Pro Welfare Reform, Pro Bankruptcy Bill, etc.) with the same half hearted "Aaah, you know it was different times." approach he handled the Anita Hill thing then it's not going to play well.

[HopeAgain]

5. Or he turns out to not mobilize voters...

Anyone remember Kerry?

[dsc]

6. kerry won the primary in a walk

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Thank you.

Instead of responding to the hypothesis I presented posters create an alternative hypothesis I didn't present and refute that. It's called a straw man. I'm not stating I like or dislike Joe but I do like him enough. I'm not stating he can beat Trump which I believe he can do but it won't be easy. What I am stating is as long as Democratic primary voters believe he has the best chance of beating Trump he has the best chance of being the nominee.

As to Kerry he did about as well as the fundamentals suggested he would have done. Bush's approval was around fifty percent on election day and that was approximately the percentage of the vote he received. Kerry got every anti-Bush vote that was to be got.

[Demit]

35. Your hypothesis is a tautology.

By Biden "faltering" you mean not getting the nomination, right? So you're saying he won't get the nomination if not enough voters vote for him in the primaries. Sure, that's a true statement.

I don't think, however, that it's possible to boil the reason every voter will vote the way they do down to one reason, as you seem to be doing. Which is why people are responding to you the way they are.

[Demsrule86]

12. Kerry was so close to winning and lost in Ohio...maybe stolen.

[calimary]

32. Yep. Thank you Kenneth Blackwell.

He was an African American male version of Florida’s Katherine Harris. Both of them chairs of their state’s republi-CON party while at the same time Secretaries of State in their states, in charge of “supervising” elections.

And they sure “supervised”, alright. Nice to be so conveniently in the perfect position to be able to put your thumb on the scale just enough to “fix” a problem election...

[Demsrule86]

42. Blackwell piece of crap.

[George II]

19. Unfortunately many people found Kerry a bit droll, Biden has a lot more charisma than Kerry.

[NYMinute]

24. Kerry was doing well until swiftboating

and he did not come out fighting against it - hoping the story would just go away.

By the time he tried to defend, it was baked in.

Biden will not make that mistake. He will come out swinging.

[calimary]

33. That is a VERY good point, NYMinute.

An excellent point! Kerry let the swiftboating attacks turn into a runaway train and by the time he finally got his truth pants on, the swiftboaters had sent their lies all the way around the world.

[emulatorloo]

38. Biden has charisma

[Cha]

61. Of course, I remember John Kerry..

your point?

[TwilightZone]

13. I think we're underplaying that aspect somewhat.

We at DU are more politically involved than the average voter, so we tend to focus on voting records, policy, political stances, and the like.

In the real world, I think beating Trump is the primary factor for a lot of voters. They are looking for Democratic principles, certainly, but nearly all of our major candidates bring similar plans and goals to the table, particularly in comparison to Trump. All else being roughly equal in terms of a likely Dem agenda, beating Trump becomes a major factor.

[uawchild]

15. Or the media turns on him.

Right now Biden is receiving over 50% of the media coverage according to 538.

When the media decides, and they will, that the "Biden Surge" narrative is old news they will switch to another narrative in the pursuit of ratings.

The next step will be "It's a Horserace", probably during the first few debates.

The media turned on Hillary Clinton and savaged her when she was the front runner in the 2016 Presidential Race, they did that just for ratings. They will do this again in 2020.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. If the media turns on him and it works then he will not be seen as the most electable Democrat...

If the media turns on him and it works then he will not be seen as the most electable Democrat which takes us back to my original hypothesis:

The only way Joe Biden falters is if Democratic primary voters decide he doesn't have the best chance of deposing the cretin who currently occupies the White House.

The explanation that requires the least elaboration works best.

[uawchild]

17. I am being a bit more specific

My point is remarking on why the voters will decide he doesn't have the best chance to defeat Trump.

Media manipulation sunk Hillary.

[ehrnst]

26. There were many other entities that were working to deny Hillary the WH than media. (nt)

[comradebillyboy]

56. The media including CNN and the New York Times were complicit.

I'm an old white man but the stunning sexism from the mainstream media just blew me away. The Times in particular has been smearing the Clintons since 1990.

[ehrnst]

57. I'm aware, but I will not demonize mainstream journalism in general.

Yes, they have old white men at the helm, and that's problematic, but I'm going to lay some blame at people who were slavering for any trash thrown at HRC.

I've seen plenty of it here.

[comradebillyboy]

58. There is indeed plenty of blame to go around.

[StevieM]

31. He won't have to deal with the misogyny that Hillary had to deal with.

That will make it very different for him, including with regards to the media coverage.

[George II]

18. It's unbelievable (in a GOOD way!) that in a field of more than 20 others he's approaching...

....50% in many polls - he has the support of almost as many as all of the others COMBINED.

I'm looking forward to the time that some of the others face reality and withdraw.

[mopinko]

25. my hopes for biden-

that he stands out there and gives and gets shots at spanky, bloodies him up good.
then someone who can really lead us into the future gets to emerge.

[emulatorloo]

39. I bet he and Warren team up evertually.

[Cha]

62. I've seen posts that will

never happen.. 'cause history.

But, stranger things have happened.

[crazytown]

27. A black swan event no one wants to see like a stroke.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Well

If he has a stroke he "doesn't have the best chance of deposing the cretin who currently occupies the White House."

[crazytown]

30. It'm responding (in a pedantic way)

‘ to The only way he falters’. The 1000% certainty of those who support VP Biden continues to annoy me. I remember 1968., unfortunately.

[highplainsdem]

40. Which could happen to any candidate.

[crazytown]

41. Indeed. I'm just sick of know-it-all DU pundits trying

to Impress on me their 1000% certainties.

[emulatorloo]

50. Definitely. Which is why you are one of my role models these days

[Sneederbunk]

34. The only way he falters is by self-inflicted wounds.

[Fiendish Thingy]

55. Democratic primary voters have lots of time to make up their minds

January is a loong ways away...

[Blue_Tires]

68. Why the hell is Biden even running now?

Where was his ass in 2016?