How Joe Biden is eating into Bernie Sanders' coalition

[brooklynite]

Politico

Since officially jumping into the 2020 race less than two weeks ago, former Vice President Joe Biden has reshaped the Democratic primary. His polling numbers have risen from the high 20s to the low 40s since declaring his candidacy two weeks ago. In doing so, Biden has, for the moment, left the rest of the Democratic field in the dust.

Perhaps surprisingly to some, much of Biden's newfound supporters seem to have formerly backed fellow 2020 contender Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, even though Biden backers are more likely to be more moderate, nonwhite and older than Sanders.' Obviously, some of this trend towards Biden and away from Sanders is because Biden is now receiving much of the news attention Sanders had been getting.

But something else is at play: Biden does well among whites without a college degree who, as a group, backed Sanders in 2016. This could help Biden given that other Democrats haven't been able to break through among white Democrats without a college degree in the primary.

Whites without a college degree still make up a substantial portion of the Democratic Party. Despite much noise about how whites with a degree are the future for Democrats, each group is about 30% of the party. Nonwhites, both with and without college degrees, are about 40% in total.

[NYMinute]

1. This is to be expected

Whites without college degrees have been suffering and realize that Bernie only offers them slogans and platitudes whilst Biden, who has been a real champion for the blue-collar working class and unions will offer real relief.

The reality is sinking in that Bernie is all talk.

[comradebillyboy]

2. The thrill is gone. The bloom is off the rose.

What are some other good descriptive cliches for diminishing enthusiasm?

[Cha]

14. "The bloom is off

the rose".. is the best one!

[Hortensis]

15. How about "The wicked witch is dead"?

As far as the threat Hillary could become president in this election is concerned, anyway.

Sanders is still running a populist campaign and the Democratic Party does include some conservatives, but any social con types in their trains aren't inspired to set the national barn on fire over our current female or nonwhite candidates while two white men are so far ahead. Less anger and fear translates to more support for the white male establishment candidate, of course.

[zipplewrath]

3. The "Not Clinton" vote

This seems to outline that the errosion is predominately from the "I don't want a Clinton" gang that ultimately voted for Trump. It is mostly the anti-NAFTA, free trade group that felt that the democratic party had sold them out over the years. Sanders was appealing to them because he was the anti-Hillary candidate. Now you've got Biden who has a long track record of being Blue Collar and they feel comfortable with him.

Then the question will be, can Biden hold them in the general election or will they stick with Trump?

[still_one]

4. I think Elizabeth Warren is having a larger impact on Sander's numbers

[NurseJackie]

7. Warren is most definitely eating into the BS poll numbers!

One of her strongest points is that she does NOT smear and attack Democrats and the Democratic party. People are getting tired of those kind of attacks from BS.

[still_one]

9. She also has specifics and how to pay for them

[NurseJackie]

10. I know! What a concept! Hooda thunk it would be such a popular idea...

I know! What a concept! Hooda thunk it would be such a popular idea to propose idea and follow-up with real-world plans on how they'd be paid for.

I, myself, have grown weary of politicians who do little more than provide a laundry list of "everything that's wrong" and "what we oughta do" ... but who have NO real-world plans on how their general "solution" would be accomplished, or how it would be paid for.

I mean... ANYONE can point out problems. ANYONE can say in general terms what we "gotta" do or what we "oughta" do... but when it comes to visualizing and explaining the DETAILS and LIKELIHOOD that such things will happen, there is a WORLD of difference between the "pie in the sky" and "unicorns and rainbows" candidates and the thoughtful and realistic ones like Warren.

[robbedvoter]

23. Those are the Sanders supporters who actually care about policy

The others, just hated Hillary - and any other woman for that matter. I wish there was a way to measure the numbers in those defections. Like the time when Ron Paul dropped out in NH, in 2016 half of his supporters in NH went to Sanders, half to Trump.

[ananda]

5. I'm one of those.

I voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary.

This time it's Biden all the way, with Beto
my real fave but he needs more time.

[Bayard]

6. Biden is The Man

He is a return to normal. To security. To real experience for the job. To less stress, not having to worry about tRump's latest exploits.

If that's the "safe choice", so be it. I think he will stomp tRump among the majority of voters. I am fine with one term to get us back on track, and then a younger VP taking over.

I voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary. He would not win the general in 2020, and our prime objective must be taking back the White House.

[LakeArenal]

8. I liked Bernie in the last primary.

Over time however, I realized I liked the ideas, not so much Bernie.

Joe/Pete/Beto/Abrams/Schiff 2020

[Cha]

11. Good!

[oasis]

16. Symone Sanders definitely knew what time it was.

[Cha]

18. ..

[Gothmog]

12. Washington Post-Opinion: Voters aren't playing along with the media narrative

Link to tweet

The latest Hill-HarrisX poll shows former vice president Joe Biden opening up a 32-point lead over Sanders, whose claim to the party’s heart is evaporating before our eyes. The latest Morning Consult poll shows Biden expanding his share to 40 percent (up 4 points from the previous week) and Sanders tumbling to 19 percent (down from 27 percent in February). In other words, available evidence suggests that at present the predicted story lines aren’t emerging.....

The most reliable voters — African American women — have little affection for Sanders, nor have they automatically gravitated to African American candidates to the left of Biden. They know Biden, they like him and so far they are content to reward him with their support after his eight years of service in the Obama administration.

The lack of appeal among African American candidates is now a significant problem for Sanders and for other progressives such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg. (The latest Quinnipiac poll found, “Biden had the support of 42 percent of nonwhite respondents, more than 30 points ahead of his nearest rival, Warren. Sanders, who struggled with nonwhite voters during his 2016 campaign, had only 7 percent support.”)

In short, in going far to the left, Sanders and other candidates misfired not only with older, more moderate whites but also with the critical African American electorate. The media likewise has overestimated the influence of the far left and failed to appreciate the centrist bent of both white and African American voters.

[Cha]

13. This needs a Kick!

[Scurrilous]

17. K&R

[Gothmog]

19. Biden's entry into the Democratic race provides a jolt to the Sanders candidacy

Link to tweet

One issue for Sanders is the erosion in the support he received in 2016. He won New Hampshire with nearly 60 percent of the vote. He lost Iowa but ended up in a near-tie with Clinton. Today, his support in both those states lags significantly from those performances. In a field of 20-plus candidates, Sanders doesn’t need nearly the level of support he got in 2016 to win or be a significant factor, but his current poll average in New Hampshire of 15 percent is not a healthy sign.

Sanders has a loyal base. The question is just how big or small that core support is. He is being squeezed from several directions.

Biden obviously is having some impact on Sanders right now, particularly with self-identified Democrats, some of whom question Sanders’s party allegiance. He also could have a bigger challenge in persuading a broad swath of Democratic primary voters that he would be the party’s strongest challenger against Trump.

Sanders is being challenged in another way by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.). In 2016, Sanders was the unquestioned leader in the offering of big, progressive ideas. Now, that’s far less the case: Others in the field have embraced some of his 2016 ideas, such as Medicare-for-all. Warren has gone further, offering specific policies on child care and student-debt relief, along with a wealth tax that she says would provide the revenue to pay for her initiatives. Sanders no longer has a premium on big ideas.

[ohhellyes]

20. Sanders needs to go away. n/t

n/t

[Gothmog]

21. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[NYMinute]

22. Everyone is eating into Bernie's support

He has lost everyone except the diehard disgruntled disenchanted disruptive devotees.