Washington Post-Analysis: How the Democrats' shift to the left indirectly aids Joe Biden

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

Former vice president Joe Biden is embracing his role as the leading moderate in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary field. He has at times adopted an almost curmudgeonly tone about his opponents’ embrace of more progressive policies, preferring a nostalgia for the way things were back in the good old days of, say, 2015.

It’s an approach that, at first, seems at odds with where the party is going. We’ve noted previously that Democrats are increasingly likely to identify themselves as liberals, a trend that probably helps explain why so many of the 2020 candidates have embraced progressive positions — and why more progressive candidates have entered the race.

Polling, though, suggests that this may not be a foolproof strategy. For one thing, a crowd of more progressive candidates (an admittedly nebulous designation) will compete for the same voters, freeing Biden to vacuum up support from moderates. But polling also shows that Democrats overall aren’t necessarily prioritizing a candidate who espouses progressive policies. The data below are from a recent CNN-SSRS poll: More Democrats think it’s important for a nominee to work with Republicans than to support liberal policies.


.....

[pangaia]

1. " More Democrats think it's important for a nominee to work with Republicans than to support

liberal policies."

jesus on a stick, where have these people been the last 40 years !! ??

[uawchild]

3. It' Bezo/Amazon/Post "ANALYSIS" , there is no Math involved.

So a more liberal party favors electing a centrist in the primary?!?

Is this Bezo/Amazon/Washington Post pushing a corporate narrative or something?

Sure seems like it.

[TwilightZone]

4. Actually, the article explained the reasons quite well. Because math.

You might want to read it.

[Gothmog]

5. I like math and the article made sense to me

[uawchild]

7. What math? Nothing is shown

the article is behind a paywall.

And they only "math" in the displayed op is one graph where 25% feel its very important to work with republicans and 20% also say they favor progressive policies.

Seriously.

That's an advantage compared to ALL the charts show where the Democratic Party is going more liberal each and every year?

Very suspicious.

[Gothmog]

9. I posted the charts that show the math

[uawchild]

12. The charts show the party is increasing liberal

The charts do not support the opinion claimed in the article. All the charts show the party becoming more and more strongly liberal.

there is ONE chart that shows 76% of the party holds working with republicans important AND ~65% holds progressive positions important.



NOTICE THAT PEOPLE ARE HOLDING BOTH VIEWS, those percentages are not mutually exclusive.

How a chart showing us that an increasingly liberal supports progressive polices and trying to work with republicans helps a centrist is beyond me. Is it that the opinion writer is trying to PRIORITIZE working with republicans over everything else? Sure seems that way.

[Gothmog]

14. I disagree-the charts show that the bulk of the party is not as liberal as you think

[uawchild]

17. People are not blind look at your own chart

The Democratic Party has become more liberal, across every demographic, but the Bezo/Amazon/Post wants to ignore this and says this means we really want a centrist?

That's a ridiculous narrative and obvious spin.

The only thing this data supports is that centrist Biden's early 40% favorability in the polls won't win him the nomination because the other 6o% of the party is more liberal and wants progressive policies.

[Gothmog]

20. The bulk of the party is not in extremely liberal block

sanders and other candidates can split the extremely liberal segment of the party and Biden will do well with the liberal, slightly liberal, and moderate segments of the party. These charts are also very consistent with the recent polling results for Joe Biden

I like math and these charts make sense to me

[uawchild]

24. The bulk of the party is not in the moderate or conservative block

The bulk of the party is liberal and becoming increasing liberal year after year.

Right now the liberal democrats are split, but primaries always coalesce into a one-against-one final show down.

I am betting that the liberal majority of democrats will vote for a liberal nominee.

That's just common sense.

[ehrnst]

38. Do you have any backup for your claims about the bulk of the party?

Polls? Research?

Also a concrete definition of "moderate" or "conservative" Democrats?

Other than BEZOS HATES LIBERALS?

[Gothmog]

43. The polling shows that this claim is wrong

Do you have any polls that support your claim?

[ehrnst]

35. Because you say so? (nt)

[LibFarmer]

47. Here is help for you

[ehrnst]

34. The charts are in the OP.

Keep trying...

[ehrnst]

33. Is that the latest rationalization against facts don't apply to a specific

political view?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. Seriously!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[uawchild]

2. A liberal shift helps centrist Biden in the primaries?!?

Every demographic group in the Democratic Party is shifting more and more liberal every year and this helps centrist Biden win the primaries and the nomination how?

As long as liberal democrats feel their more liberal candidates can beat Trump, why would they vote in the primaries for the more centrist Biden?

Would some one walk me thru this article, it's point escapes me.

Is this a redux of "we can only count on Biden to beat Trump"? That's been debunked in polls already.

[Gothmog]

8. Washington Post-Opinion: Voters aren't playing along with the media narrative

Link to tweet

The mainstream media narratives persist: The Democratic Party has been taken over by the far left. There’s a war between the status quo Democrats who just want to get rid of President Trump and the radicals who want fundamental change. Leftists such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) control the terms of the debate. Democrats want ideological agreement more than electability.

The problem with all of these “takes” is that there is little or no evidence that they correspond with reality. To the dismay of the pundits and the cable TV news execs who pine for high-decibel shouting matches between two evenly matched sides (Good ratings!), at this stage in the race there is extraordinary consensus around a moderate Democrat well-situated to beat Trump....

Morning Consult’s pollsters explain, “Since his announcement, Biden has seen a 14-point gain with voters ages 55-64 and a 12-point gain with those 65+.” Because they are less active on social media and are outside many reporters’ age bracket, these older voters can get short shrift. Some stories make you think that the quintessential Democratic voter is a young urban-dweller who voted for Sanders in 2016. Such voters exist (especially in many reporters’ social circles), but they do not make up a majority of Democrats.....

In short, in going far to the left, Sanders and other candidates misfired not only with older, more moderate whites but also with the critical African American electorate. The media likewise has overestimated the influence of the far left and failed to appreciate the centrist bent of both white and African American voters.

[uawchild]

10. Oh, A Bezo/Amazon/Post OPINION article

So the richest man in America's opinion writers want us to think an increasing liberal Democratic Party cares more about working with Republicans than progressive policies?

Seriously?

THE REAL MEDIA NARRATIVE IS THAT THE MEDIA HAS BEEN PUSHING BIDEN NON-STOP

Cable News Is Covering Biden As Much As Every Other Democratic Candidate Combined

In the first full week of his 2020 campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden continued to dominate cable news coverage on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC.

According to data from the TV News Archive, which chops up TV news into 15-second clips that we access using the GDELT Project’s Television API,1 Biden was mentioned in more clips that any other candidate across the three networks last week, and he was mentioned almost four times as often as Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had been getting the most coverage of any 2020 candidate before Biden joined the race.

For the second consecutive week, Biden, who has also been well ahead in polling and endorsements, was mentioned in about as many clips as all the other candidates combined.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cable-news-is-covering-biden-as-much-as-every-other-democratic-candidate-combined/

[Gothmog]

15. I was at the Texas state party fundraiser where we made him a honorary Texan

Booker is not as extremely liberal as you seem to think

[JI7]

13. Biden and Booker are the same ideologically

and both get the same type of attacks.

but I doubt you actually support Booker so.......

[ehrnst]

36. Which polls? (nt)

[LibFarmer]

48. It is shocking that you're promoting an ultra liberal position

The candidate of your preference, Cory Booker, is a moderate.

Unless it is a red herring and you're actually supporting ... say ... BS? Your anger towards pro-Biden posts is very much indicative of that.

[k8conant]

6. This makes no sense

[George II]

11. Thanks....there's some really interesting information in those charts confirming what I've said...

....for the last few years. As a whole, the Democratic Party is NOT moving far to the left. Those dark blue bars have been relatively consistent in just about every breakdown of Democrats. The majority of the party is either moderate (or some like to use the negative term "centrist&quot or the old fashioned liberal. "Progressives" or extremely liberal and conservatives make up much less of the majority, maybe 15% on either end of the spectrum.

[Gothmog]

16. I like math and these charts explain why Biden is doing so well

There are a significant percentage of the party who are not extremely liberal and Biden appears to be doing well with this large segment of the base

[George II]

18. Exactly, about 50% or maybe a little more are in that gray and light blue areas....

....and that's exactly the ideology of Joe Biden. The dark blue area is about 10% and in some cases even smaller than the red conservative area.

[uawchild]

19. The Charts explain why Biden only has 40% support

The other 60% of the party wants progressive policies.


Again, these charts, despite the Bezo/Amazon/Post spin, only explains why centrist Biden has 40% support. The other 60% of the party wants more progressive policies.

And since actual primaries will be held, voters will get behind a candidate that represents their core beliefs.

[Gothmog]

21. Earlier sanders was planning on winning the nomination with 30%

40% is larger than 30% and is more than sufficient to get the nomination

Link to tweet

[uawchild]

22. You think Sanders is getting the nomination?

I don't. I think that is becoming more and more obvious.

I see Harris and Warren moving past Sanders immediately after the first debate, if not sooner.

Biden needs to get more that 40% of the support of democrats to win the nomination.

Who knows, he might. But based on the "MATH" in your own charts, I'd say the betting odds are against him.

[Gothmog]

30. There are too many real democrats with long memories

It was sanders and his campaign that was speculating that sanders could be the nominee with 30%. I strongly disagree with this claim. Unless sanders gets 50% of the vote, sanders will not be the nominee. There are far too many real democrats who have long memories who will not forgive or forget for sanders to be the nominee.

[NYMinute]

50. aaaaaaaaaaaaahahahaahahaha

But based on the "MATH" in your own charts, I'd say the betting odds are against him.

[quaker bill]

26. I think the numbers will look quite different

When the field winnows down to 3 or 4 coming out of South Carolina. My guess is you will have Joe, Bernie, and one or two of the younger progressives, perhaps Beto and Kamala, but it could be any 1 or 2 of the remaining 18. One of the younger ones needs a breakthrough moment, or they don't make it past SC. Bernie I think has a low ceiling, so he will need a couple of the others plugging away well into the primaries, or Joe just walks away with it.

I will vote against Trump in the General, regardless.

[uawchild]

27. Interesting analysis

I see Bernie fading and Warren absorbing the bulk of his support at some point in the run. Similarly I see Harris moving ahead of Biden as Harris becomes more familiar to the core of the party. That will be the showdown battle for the nomination in my mind, Warren and Harris.

The remaining candidates will be hanging in there to get Cabinet slots or maybe VP.

But who know.

[quaker bill]

40. Hillary

but my guess is that Warren does not make it that far. That said, I would certainly be an enthusiastic supporter if she did.

To me the punchline with Warren is that she is an intelligent and capable older white woman, or in short, she has too much in common with Hillary. I know her ideas are quite different, but image really counts here. Of the women, Harris has a far better shot, as she is absolutely not like Hillary on any dimension in image.

I like Mayor Pete, but he is too young to project with authority. Again a candidate I would be happy to support, but I do not think he makes it to the FL primary.

I think Biden can and will call Trump on his BS with the sort of authority that none of the rest can match. This will matter, but it is unclear that it will be enough, it will be a lot, but perhaps not enough.

I see Bernie as doing well, he, like Trump, has a base that will not be moved. It however is not a majority.

Beto has potential on image alone, but he really would need a debate performance that takes him to another level, or he remains mired in the pack.

There are many more pieces on the board, but I largely do not think of most of them as players with the spark to get it done.

All this said, the (D), whoever that is, gets my $ and my vote. This Trump stuff has to stop.

[Gothmog]

41. Here is some fun polling results

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. Elizabeth will be one of the four with Bernie & Joe...no doubt!! I'm guessin' Mayer Pete will be #4.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[ehrnst]

37. But do you have some backup for your claims?

Do you also then think that Jamal Kashoggi was killed because he was 'shilling for Amazon/Bezos/LiberalhaterPOST?'

[LibFarmer]

49. That chart is one of three

and that set highlights how blacks and Hispanics are far less liberal than whites. Just posting one chart means nothing. Perhaps you need to read the WaPo story a few times. Try another browser so you'l get to see it for free.

[Gothmog]

46. Biden's entry into the Democratic race provides a jolt to the Sanders candidacy

Link to tweet

One issue for Sanders is the erosion in the support he received in 2016. He won New Hampshire with nearly 60 percent of the vote. He lost Iowa but ended up in a near-tie with Clinton. Today, his support in both those states lags significantly from those performances. In a field of 20-plus candidates, Sanders doesn’t need nearly the level of support he got in 2016 to win or be a significant factor, but his current poll average in New Hampshire of 15 percent is not a healthy sign.

Sanders has a loyal base. The question is just how big or small that core support is. He is being squeezed from several directions.

Biden obviously is having some impact on Sanders right now, particularly with self-identified Democrats, some of whom question Sanders’s party allegiance. He also could have a bigger challenge in persuading a broad swath of Democratic primary voters that he would be the party’s strongest challenger against Trump.

Sanders is being challenged in another way by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.). In 2016, Sanders was the unquestioned leader in the offering of big, progressive ideas. Now, that’s far less the case: Others in the field have embraced some of his 2016 ideas, such as Medicare-for-all. Warren has gone further, offering specific policies on child care and student-debt relief, along with a wealth tax that she says would provide the revenue to pay for her initiatives. Sanders no longer has a premium on big ideas.

[comradebillyboy]

23. These results aren't too surprising.

[tonedevil]

25. Undeniably a solid start...

I just think it is way to early to read anything into current polling.

[Scurrilous]

31. ...

[NYMinute]

32. We have experience from the 2016 primaries

The socialist candidate lost while trying to replicate Obama 2008. What he didn't get was that Obama was center-left and not an ultra.

[Gothmog]

44. Democrats don't need a left-wing nominee to turn out the base

The facts back you up on this

Link to tweet

While moderate candidates showed the ability to energize a diverse electorate, the same cannot be said for the far left. The far left talks a good game on diversity, but that segment of the electorate is among the least diverse:

In its groundbreaking 8,000-person survey, More in Common found that “progressive activists” in the electorate are 92 percent white. Of all the “political tribes” it identified in its report on “The Exhausted Majority,” only “devoted conservatives” (at 94 percent) are more consistently white. Appealing to the broad demographic diversity of the party is an absolute imperative for 2020. But presidential candidates should not conflate that with appealing to the far left with populist rhetoric and a democratic socialist agenda.

To sum up, the lesson from 2018 was that moderate Democrats could flip seats from red to blue. While they won over college-educated suburban voters, they also ginned up turnout among young and nonwhite voters. What exactly is the strategy then in finding the most extreme nominee for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination? You got me, but that’s why President Trump goes out of his way to compliment Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who offers Trump the hope that the Democratic nominee will turn off moderate whites without necessarily supercharging nonwhite voters.....

Nevertheless, six months after the midterms, the temptation to go far left remains despite the midterm experience. Presidential campaigns are still bamboozled by ultra-progressives goading them to take more radical positions. Despite all the available evidence, the media still insists that the party is being pulled to the left. Taking the left-wing bait would be foolish for presidential aspirants, and voters would be foolish to buy in to the “Democrats go far left” punditry. It’s essential for Democrats to resist the impulse to run to the left if they want to boot Trump out.

“White voters ... — including the well-educated ones moving away from Trump’s insular definition of the GOP — are flashing an unambiguous yellow warning light about Democrats’ most ambitious and expensive ideas to expand government’s reach,” writes Ron Brownstein. “If Democrats barrel through that signal in 2020, they will be wagering that they can beat Trump with a very different coalition— that relies more on enhanced minority and youth turnout — than the one they marshaled to recapture the House in November.”

The results of the mid terms clearly back up your observation

[saidsimplesimon]

51. I will pass on

commenting on "socialist", or replicate Obama, of 2016. Hillary Clinton won that primary if memory serves me. Moving on...

[Tarheel_Dem]

39. So this means Nancy Pelosi's advice to the candidates was right. She's a smart lady, and knows....

her party.

[Gothmog]

42. Recent polling results are consistent with these charts

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

45. From Harry Enten

Link to tweet

[Midnightwalk]

52. The work with republicans poll is odd to me

I don’t see how democrats can work more with obstructionist republicans.

Maybe most people just hear “both sides are bickering so blame both” from the media. Or maybe “work with” is interpreted as “get things done”. I like to hope it’s the latter, but i have ni evidence.

Either way there seems to be some message that the Democratic Party is missing or needs to push harder.

The other part of the poll isn’t that surprising. The party has moved more left but the bulk of the party is more moderate.

[Gothmog]

53. What Biden Is Teaching Democrats About Democrats

The party's move to the left has been overstated which is why Joe Biden is doing well https://politicalwire.com/2019/05/12/what-biden-is-teaching-democrats-about-democrats/

“The poor guy has disregarded all the advice and decided to run anyway. And initial polling has revealed that a large number of Democrats have not left Biden behind at all. He begins the race leading his closest competitors, including early front-runner Bernie Sanders, by as much as 30 points. Perhaps it was the party’s intelligentsia, not Biden, that was out of touch with the modern Democratic electorate.”

“The conclusion that Biden could not lead the post-Obama Democratic Party is the product of misplaced assumptions about the speed of its transformation. Yes, the party has moved left, but not nearly as far or as fast as everybody seemed to believe. Counterintuitively, House Democrats’ triumph in the midterms may have pushed their center of gravity to the right: The 40 seats Democrats gained were overwhelmingly located in moderate or Republican-leaning districts.”

“Biden’s apparent resurrection from relic to runaway front-runner has illustrated a chasm between perception and reality.”