A huge South Carolina poll: Biden at 46%

[Honeycombe8]

Wow. Biden is at an eye popping 46% in South Carolina in a new May poll. I don't recall ever seeing a primary where the front runner was this strong this early. South Carolina is important.

The next one behind him is Sanders, at 15%.

https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-south-carolina-2020-democratic-primary-18532704-8930-4b16-bffd-51d19466771f.html

Why it matters: Biden has developed deep ties to the early voting state throughout his political career, having spent more days in South Carolina "visiting, vacationing or politicking than the rest of the crowded field, combined," according to the Post and Courier. His appeal with black voters will play an especially important role in next February's primary vote.

Is he a cinch for the nomination? Or is it that he only has one way to go...down? Is he this far ahead in a key state because there are just too many candidates, so the unknowns can't get air time or capture the attention of the public?

I'm sure he's going to get some big donations rolling in, over this poll. S Carolina is a key state for Democrats, with a high Af. American demographic.

In the meantime, Beto has announced a re-introduction and revamping of his entrance to the race. That sounds bad.

[NurseJackie]

1. How humiliating. This is very bad news... for Bernie.

But good news for Biden. I'm wondering if BS is considering his options going forward. Does he even have a "path to victory" at all??

I think everyone should have expected something like this. It's really no surprise.

And the reason I say that is BS can't even get AA and POC to attend his big rally at an historically black church, in a predominantly black neighborhood, in a majority black city.

As a matter of fact, the BS rally in North Charleston, SC had so LITTLE ethnic diversity among those who attended that it looked like he could have been somewhere Vermont. Based on the statistics, the demographics at that rally was even whiter than Vermont.

It's obvious that the AA and POC community are rejecting BS and the BS campaign. BS just doesn't connect with that community. The BS message just isn't resonating.

All I'm saying is, with such a humiliating rejection by the AA and POC communities, and without their vote, BS doesn't stand a chance.

I think that's becoming clearer and clearer as we get closer to the first debates. It's really not looking good for BS. He should probably just go ahead and drop out.

[former9thward]

4. If that is the argument for dropping out then everyone but Biden should drop out.

Including the person you favor right now.

[NurseJackie]

10. Not necessarily.

If that is the argument for dropping out then everyone but Biden should drop out. Including the person you favor right now.

I understand the point you're trying to make, but I'd have to respond by saying "Not necessarily."

After all, it's very clear to me (and others) that some candidates are much more divisive than others. It's also clear that some candidates have realistic expectations about their chances of winning the nomination, and instead, are auditioning to be Biden's VP pick.

Considering all the denigrating and divisive things that BS has said about Democrats and the Democratic party, it's difficult to imagine Biden choosing BS as his running mate (and even more unlikely that BS would accept... he's not auditioning to be VP). So with that in mind, considering the divisive nature of his comments about Democrats and the Democratic party... people are wondering what good purpose it serves for him to continue on this Quixotic journey, particularly when the divisive nature of his comments only serve to create suspicion, and resentment.

All I'm saying is that a divided Democratic party is a weakened party... and that only benefits Trump and the GOP (and Russia.)

The type of negativity that BS throw out about Democrats and the party only generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

He's not going to be the nominee. He's not going to be Biden's VP pick. And in thoughtful consideration of all other things, I honestly believe that the most reasonable move is to drop out now and head back to Vermont, or back to DC.

[thesquanderer]

46. Possibility of choice for VP is not the only reason to stay in the race.

People run for plenty of reasons. Some want to position themselves for a future run. Or a cabinet position. Some have an agenda they want to bring attention to... and that's something probably of importance to Sanders... I believe it was the only reason he announced his candidacy in 2016, I don't think he initially expected his challenge to Clinton to even get as far as it did.

But regardless of any of that, at this moment, Sanders is almost universally running second, often the only candidate besides Biden who looks like he could hit the 15% threshold to get any delegates at all. A lot can happen between now and the convention. As of now, even with SC poll results like these, if Biden falls out of favor for any reason at all, Sanders is best positioned to be the nominee. In a field of 20+ at the start of a year-long race that hasn't even hit the first primary or even first debate yet, the idea of the person in the strong #2 spot dropping out is far fetched.

If no one else starts amassing some number of delegates by Super Tuesday, it could quickly come down to a Biden vs. Sanders race.

[NurseJackie]

47. And for book deals, a more impressive CV to get higher speaking fees... I know.

an agenda they want to bring attention to...and that's something probably of importance to Sanders

Where does smearing and denigrating the Democratic party and Democratic leadership fit into his agenda? What good purpose does it serve to call the party "corrupt" or "feeble" or "ideologically bankrupt" or "the party of the one-percent".

Biden vs. Sanders race.

Doubtful. People are growing weary of his negative rhetoric and unbridled contempt for the party. I know that I certainly am. His negativity causes divisions and distrust. That creates apathy and with apathy, people choose not to vote. When people don't vote (for Democrats) that makes it easier for the GOP to steal the election.

[DownriverDem]

22. The person I favor

is Biden. We want to win.

[honest.abe]

29. Not at all. Most of the others will be vying for VP spot. Bernie will never be Biden's VP choice.

Nor would Bernie want it. I think Bernie wants the top spot or nothing.

He might as well give it up and save his donors alot of money and disappointment.

[LibFarmer]

6. But BS has Nina Turner

She is doing major AA outreach as she told Joy Reid. Give her time and she will make BS as attractive as Obama to the AA community.

[NurseJackie]

15. Honestly, I think Nina Turner drags him down. She's a reminder of the past...

Honestly, I think Nina Turner drags him down. She's a reminder of the past... and she's got some serious attitude problems as well. Her open support of Jill Stein (along with other Stein supporters/voters on the BS campaign) aren't helping BS either.

Clearly, the voters have had enough. They don't want what BS is selling. The BS message isn't resonating.

He doesn't want the VP slot and he'd never accept it even if it was offered... so for the sake of unity, I hope he withdraws soon.

[Skya Rhen]

8. I believe that they are not that much into BS...

[zackymilly]

36. LOL

[thesquanderer]

12. Biden is going to win SC. The competition will be for second place.

States award delegates proportionately, so second place still matters, and with Biden pretty much a lock on first place, Sanders is still well positioned compared to the other candidates. It could be more of an issue for those candidates who are more heavily counting on the AA/POC community. If they can't show well here, where can they make it up?

[NYMinute]

17. He has to get 15% first nt

[thesquanderer]

21. True. So if it were today, Biden and Sanders are the only ones...

Last edited Tue May 14, 2019, 02:41 PM - Edit history (1)

...who would get any delegates at all.

Which makes it seem even sillier for someone to suggest that Sanders (and no one else) should drop out based on SC.

[DownriverDem]

23. Only care

about Biden, not the second place guy.

[thesquanderer]

28. In some states, Biden may be the second place guy. (n/t)

[still_one]

2. Regardless what the polls say, we need a candidate who can win some red states, and there are some

of our candidates who won't be able to do that.

I think poll results from Florida will be very telling

[Honeycombe8]

3. There's a FL poll from a couple of days ago. Biden 39%. Sanders 16%.

Biden has strong ties to democrats in FL and was endorsed by over 1/3 of the democratic legislators there.

According to the new poll of 800 primary voters from Tyson’s firm, Tel Opinion Research, Biden leads Sanders by more than 2-to-1: 39 percent to 16 percent. Everyone else is in the low single digits.

Fueling Biden’s dominance: Biden is popular with older white voters, who tend to form the bulk of the state primary electorate. And he is running well among African-Americans, who could comprise about a quarter of the primary electorate — they back Biden with 46 percent of the vote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/11/joe-biden-florida-1317604

The middle aged to older voters are reliable voters. So besides the Af. American vote, the older voter is an important demographic, too.

Biden must be floating on clouds right now. But he could always blow it. Can't wait for the debates.

[still_one]

5. Thanks. Of course anything can happen, and it is still quite early, but I still hold by my original

comment that whoever are candidate is, they need to be able to win some red states in the general elections, and I think Florida is one of those states I was referring to.

[Honeycombe8]

31. We may need either OH or FL, just to keep the Repub from winning it.

I think it hampers the Repub candidate not to win either OH or FL. If Trump gets both of those, that's tough.

[still_one]

37. I agree

[thesquanderer]

7. We don't need red states, we need MI/WI/PA (or OH/FL) n/t

[still_one]

9. I would consider Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin red states today. I guess we could debate red and

purple, regarding those states, but they are not the blue states they used be, and assuming they are would be flaw I believe

[DownriverDem]

24. Come on

It's a numbers game. Michigan does not support trump now. We do need to appeal to fly over states too.

[thesquanderer]

27. Michigan is not a red state. Not all flyovers are red. I don't see your point. (n/t)

[IluvPitties]

11. Biden is ready to kick Trump's ass!

Looking forward to it!

[MineralMan]

13. The reason is simple. Very, very many voters have one singular goal:

Get rid of Donald Trump and what he has done to this country! Right now, the only Democratic primary candidate with White House experience is Joe Biden. He's a trustworthy guy and an old hand at DC politics. He smiles, instead of scowling. He's experienced, instead of not so much. He's a lifelong Democrat, with decades of Democratic Party success.

So, 46% of Democrats in SC think he's the best bet as a candidate. Similar results are showing up in other states.

Here on DU, we're all about issues and positions. Everywhere else, the main issue is Donald J. Trump. Joe Biden went after Trump immediately, and that's what people want the next Democratic nominee to do.

That's why Biden is leading the primary race with such a sizable margin right now. It's simple.

[Honeycombe8]

33. I would agree with most of that.

I was waiting and waiting for a Pied Piper to appear. Another Obama? A strong governor with charisma? But it didn't happen. Then Biden appeared.

He really is the only one with that national gravitas and sense of self to go against someone like Trump, I guess. He's been around the block....several times.

I don't support him as the nominee for a couple of reasons (no, it's not the Hill thing). But I don't support anyone else at this time. My Pied Piper did not appear.

But I would fully support him as the candidate. Will he make gaffes? Yes. Has he made some doozie mistakes in his long Senate history? Yep. Is there a lot to attack? You betcha. But all his bad stuff is out in the open. There are no surprises here.

Let's see how the debates go. (and if he wins the nomination, his pick of VP will be very important for a number of reasons.)

[George II]

14. The numbers, only 5% undecided:

:large

[patphil]

16. Question for everyone

When do the primaries start?
The answer is:

NEXT YEAR!

So, lets not get all worked up about who is leading and who isn't.
A lot of water still has to go over the dam.
Let the next 6-9 months unfold and then we'll be able to take polls seriously.

Patrick Phillips

[NYMinute]

18. That argument would hold water

except that Biden's support is baked in. People want Biden. He has not released a single major policy proposal and has not offered any free stuff. People don't care - they want Biden.

Unless Biden is videotaped burning crosses wearing a KKK hood, it is not likely to change that dynamic.

[LanternWaste]

25. I see simply analysis and speculative discussion... no one is getting worked up.

I see simply analysis and speculative discussion... no one is getting worked up.

Maybe some self-reelection would do you well prior to instructing everyone one how to react to polling data.

[DownriverDem]

26. We won't

move to someone else. We want to beat trump. Biden/Harris would be a winning ticket.

[Honeycombe8]

34. It's not just that he's ahead. It's the size of his lead that's important. Historical, even?

I can't recall such a huge lead the Pres. nomination polls that was so large, so early.

But I will be watching the debates to see if someone else is able to rise above the pack.

[angrychair]

19. Great

A Democrat is polling well in a deep red state that we have no chance of winning in the GE.

[Skya Rhen]

20. But it greatly increases his chance to be the Democratic nominee for the General...

First things first...

[Honeycombe8]

35. You make a good point. But he's leading in the other states, too.

I was looking at S. Carolina for an indication of who the Af American community supported, since that is such a large demographic in the Dem. Party. Particularly Af. American women.

[angrychair]

40. In this case Its familiarity

And name association with president Obama.

Biden's actually public positions on healthcare, the environment and education/student loan debt is more center-right than Clinton or Obama or almost any other candidate currently in the 2020 campaign.

For me those are hard issues that need real answers. Not answers that only plays to a rural audience in western PA or WV.

We need real answers, not some 20 year plan that never actually gets implemented.

Even for the handful of minor and longterm, improvements on environmental issues implemented by Obama were undone by trump with a few signatures.

[Honeycombe8]

41. No, he is definitely not center right on issues. He has a liberal score on environmental issues.

83% Lifetime Score. That's fairly liberal, I would think. It's the same score as Teddy Kennedy. Obama's Lifetime Score is 72% for the time he was in the Senate.
http://scorecard.lcv.org/members-of-congress

Health care - He's a pretty standard Democrat on this issue, I think. He once had a plan that allowed people 55+ to buy into Medicare, and expanding health care programs for low income to include more low income children, and a govt program for young uninsured people.

I don't know about student loan, since that's not an interest for me.

But he's a pretty standard Democrat. He is not center right on issues...EXCEPT for that bankruptcy bill we all know and hate.

[angrychair]

42. It's the standard answers that worry me

He supports non-starters for me like "clean coal" which is a coal industry created term that means very little.

Also trys to sell ridiculous concepts like "underground carbon storage" which is complete nonsense and just trading one type of environmental issue for another.

When people use industry catch phrases like these it proves they are not serious about really solving problems but just continuing to kick the can down the road for someone else to solve. Problem is we are running out of road.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/05/13/climate-change-co-2-levels-hit-415-parts-per-million-human-first/1186417001/

A Medicare for all type option is the only realistic answer for healthcare but he is completely against it.

[Honeycombe8]

43. Yes, I forgot about clean coal.

There is no such thing as clean coal. I guess it's because he's from the NE, close to coal territory? Don't know about underground carbon storage, but it does sound ridiculous.

I wish he'd be more progressive on health care. (Even though I'm probably a standard Democrat...in the middle of the left.) And it ticks me off that he still pushes the "gateway drug" thing about pot & is against legalizing it. That may have something to do with him supporting pharmaceutical companies, maybe? Or a generational thing?

I'm not supporting him, but it looks like he's gonna be the nominee. If it were up to me...it wouldn't be him. But if he can beat Trump, that's the main thing.

I waited for a Pied Piper, but she or he didn't come (for me).

[angrychair]

44. Well hopefully a candidate will speak to you

And draw your interest. We still have a long way to go and a lot of candidates to choose from.

Thank you for chat and best of luck!

[Honeycombe8]

45. BOL to yu, too.

[honest.abe]

30. I dont see how anyone can close that gap.

This isnt about bold progressive positions or winning a debate or being the most charismatic. Democratic voters simply want to win back the WH. Joe Biden is the one people feel most comfortable with to do that. Mostly based on who he is.

I suppose perhaps if he commits some huge gaffes in the debates, that might cause some concern but short of that he's a lock... imo.

[FrankBooth]

38. Every poll where Sanders isn't on top or near the top is a bad poll for him

With his name rec, organizational infrastructure and leftover supporters from 2016, he should have momentum -- instead he's stalled. And the leftovers seem to have left and don't seem to be coming back.

[Honeycombe8]

39. +1.

Yeah...seems the voters are speaking loudly and clearly.

Part of the problem was that there were just too many contenders. With Biden being who he is, he rose to the top overnight.

Democrats do have a spectrum, although we all support the same platform. But the biggest number of Democrats falls in the liberal center.

We're all pretty tired of drama. Biden represents normalcy, I think. Biggest name recognition. He's comfortable. His bad points are known. No surprises with him.

So I can understand it. He could mess it up. We'll see.

[obamanut2012]

48. I doubt Sanders will beat Harris in SC

I think Biden will probably win SC.